Alex Smith Stat Prediction Game: Week Six

Welcome to your weekly, marginally Friday (but really Saturday) prediction post! A friendly reminder: if the game post isn't up in time, please feel free to leave a prediction in the previous week's thread. Just let me know later, and I'll include your prediction.

What did I promise last week? That me wearing my new Justin Smith jersey was a precursor to the 49ers demolishing the Bills. It gets even better this week, folks. I will be at the Giants game in person, wielding the awesome power of my Justin Smith jersey, in the same vicinity as an actual, live, likely pissed off Justin Smith. There will be destruction at the Stick on Sunday, oh yes. Starting with my vocal cords.

There will also be the 49ers league-leading QB in passer rating and ESPN QBR, Alex Smith. He of the mercurial, difficult to predict stats. Teasing us with big games, then frustrating us with modest stats, and then, just when he's got us right where he wants us--expecting the norm, the average--he attacks. And we cheer as our scores plummet, because damn if it isn't worth it.

The question this week remains the same: how well do you know Alex Smith? If he's anything like the QB we watched last week, we'd like to know him very, very well. And on the wings of killing everyones' scores with a lackluster performance at the Jets, Alex rocketed past all but the most optimistic of souls. Fortunately, we tend toward the optimistic here at NN, so the scores weren't quite as dreadful as the previous game. Sadly for the Buffalo Bills, they can't boast the same.

We had eight people break the 4.0 point barrier last week. The top five include another newbie in 3rd place, ILNinerNut. The rest of the top five include the ever-optimistic bradyk2, ak4niner, Edggy, and reedkrase. Deserving of special recognition is bradyk2, who predicting Alex's total passing yardage, 303, exactly.

The leaderboard will be MIA until after the weekend, as I am writing this fanpost past midnight and have set my ambitions at getting it finished before 1:30 am. And with that, let us review the rules and venture our best guesses.

Unlike the subject of this game, the rules are simple. Guess Alex Smith's passing stat line for the upcoming game (New York Giants at 49ers) using the following format in the comments below.

Rushing Yards (Optional):
Rushing TDs (Optional):

Feel free to revise your numbers all the way up to game time. I'll use only the most recent guess. If you want to update your numbers, please reply to your original comment with the revised guess.

NOTE: Although I'm not currently scoring rushing stats (yards and TDs), I'm considering doing something with them at some point. For now, if you'd like to add rushing stats to your guess, please do. I'll highlight the person with the closest rushing predictions in the results column.


The scoring is based on a 6-point system, with each of the following metrics accounting for a point: Attempts, Completion % (calculated from Cmp/Att numbers), Yards, TDs, INTs, and Sacks. It's a bit dry, but for the curious, here is how each of the metrics are scored:

Attempts: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualAtt - AttGuessed) / 12)

Completion %: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualComp% - (CompGuessed/AttGuessed * 100)) / 15)

Yards: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualYards - YardsGuessed) / 100)

TDs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualTDs - TDsGuessed) / 3)

INTs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualINTs - INTsGuessed) / 3)

Sacks: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualSacks - SacksGuessed) / 5)

The six scoring categories are added up to produce a composite score. The maximum that can be scored is 6 points; the minimum is 0. I'll keep a running leaderboard throughout the season, along with posting the weekly results.


Welcome to the extremely abridged results section, where I'm just going to highlight a handful of interesting tidbits. As I mentioned above, bradyk2 predicted Alex Smith's passing yardage exactly with 303 yards. I understand guessing 300. Or 310. But guessing 303 is something else entirely. Feel free to solicit bradyk2's gambling advice in the comments below. (Disclaimer: I am not responsible for any ill-advised bets you place based on bradyk2's advice.)

Only five of us predicted a 3 TD performance. Pats on the backs, you five. Also, internet cookies go to liberty_JAC for predicting Alex's completion percentage exactly. Special mention also belongs to ak4niner, who was the only brave soul optimistic enough to predict 0 sacks.

As for rlott#42...I was close. So close. And yet fell 0.10 further behind in season standings. This week, I will have my day. (Though I think both of us have fallen out of top 2 contention based on our poor scores regardless.)

Here is what Alex Smith's week against the hapless Buffalo Bills looked like:

AttCompComp %YdsTDsINTsSacksRush YdsRush TDs

And here are the Week Five rankings:

RankUserAttCompComp %YdsTDsINTsSacksABCDEFScore
13Desert Dog Runner322371.9%2512120.330.790.480.670.670.603.54
16Aaron Emerson271763.0%2602040.750.200.570.671.000.203.39
21Drew Kerr322578.1%2052040.330.790.020.671.000.203.01
24See Jay322062.5%2230020.330.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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