Mel Kiper Re-Grades 49ers 2011 NFL Draft Class
by David Fucillo on Jan 11, 2012 3:15 PM PST
in 49ers Rookies
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PrintThe San Francisco 49ers will be relying on contributions from their 2011 draft class as much as anybody among the final eight playoff teams. While there was some optimism about the future of the class, plenty of folks still viewed it as a bit of a project class and graded it accordingly.
Back in early May, Mel Kiper broke down each draft class and he gave the A's 49ers a C+ overall, with a B for hitting needs and a C for value. Now that regular season one for this class is complete, Kiper has gone back and provided a revised grade for each team. A season of hindsight has helped Mel recognize the error of his ways and given the 49ers 2011 NFL Draft class an A. What is potentially most interesting about this grade is the fact that he ignores the contributions of Bruce Miller in his write-up.
The article is Insider-protected, so head after the jump as I break down his comments a bit.
Summary: This one deserves a big jump. I said then that Aldon Smith wasn't as much of a reach at No. 7 as some thought because he had so much momentum going into the draft, but, my goodness, I don't think anybody thought he'd be this good this early. I saw him as a bit of a project -- which sounds like a shot, but I meant something closer to Jason Pierre-Paul, a major talent who could see his production pick up later in his rookie year as he learned the craft. Then he'd become a great player in his second year. Well, it's safe to say Smith's overall ability has outweighed technique questions ...
I haven't gone back into the draft threads, but when we get into the offseason and start breaking down the year that was, it would be fun to pull out some of the comments about Aldon Smith at the time he was selected. It will be anonymous so nobody feels to singled out, but it would still be interesting to see what we thought about the pick. I know a lot of people were either angered or at least moderately displeased with the pick.
Chris Culliver will become a steady starter in the secondary and is a great value in the third round. Kendall Hunter was good spelling Frank Gore and could become the No. 1 back as soon as next season. Daniel Kilgore made the roster as guard depth.
I don't understand how he references Kilgore as guard depth but completely ignores Bruce Miller. The rookie fullback has been a key part of the 49ers blocking scheme and has even done some good work catching balls out of the backfield. Aldon Smith wins 49ers rookie of the year, but Miller, Culliver and Hunter can make arguments for that number two spot.
Colin Kaepernick is obviously a wild card here, but, if Alex Smith re-signs for a number of years, Kaepernick's development becomes more of a moot point. And, after the run on quarterbacks early, at least the Niners didn't target one early only to have him sit behind Smith. Their strategy paid off. Given the progress on the field this season and the help this draft provided, the Niners deserve a big bump. Kudos to them.
This draft class is a one-year success and is looking pretty solid moving forward. However, if Kaepernick is able to develop into the 49ers long term QB answer (whenever that might be), this draft class goes from very good to obscene. It's only been one year for the current contributors, but this class is moving in the right direction with great haste.
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Didn't realize this was a baseball blog
Back in early May, Mel Kiper broke down each draft class and he gave the A’s a C+ overall
Sharlon Schoop - honkbalspeler extraordinaire.
Trolls are like cockroach Nazis. Sure, you CAN try to reason with them, but they won't listen, and if you respond to them, they invade your Sudetenland.
Or something.
That metaphor got away from me.
Colin kaepernick
Ill be very interested to see what happens with Kaepernick the next couple of years. With the way Smith is playing Kaepernick might become one of those Qb’s that falls by the wayside due to a bad situation a la Brady Quinn, Brian Brohm and a few others
by ninerafficionado on Jan 11, 2012 3:26 PM PST reply actions
I think he'll be fine
He was never considered NFL ready and I think his time with Harbaugh/the Scout team will benefit him in the long run. Plus his demeanor on the sideline is pretty high spirited and he seems like he loves being with the team.
"Whoever said WAR is HELL must have been talking about Aaron Rowand" - McCoven faithful
Unlike many
I was hoping we’d land Kaepernick in the first couple rounds. The guy is very intelligent and IMO posesses all the athleticism and strength needed to make every throw. However, he comes from a college system that is absurdly different from anything in the pros. After he was drafted, I remember praying that he wouldn’t have to start this year, but could learn from the sidelines for 1-2 years. Luckily, Alex Smith has stepped up his game in a big way and afforded Kaepernick this opportunity.
When if CK ever does get that chance to start, I’d be curious to see how he adapts to a pro-set offense. Who knows, he might be a complete bust. But I wouldn’t write him off yet as some people have.
Smith
Smith is only 27 and he might stick for 4-5 years. If that happens Kaepernick would be 28-29. I think its very possible that the Niners would bring in another drafted Qb and let them fight it out. Im not saying it has anything to do with Kaepernick’s attitude. Its just a possibility that he might not end up doing much for the niners
by ninerafficionado on Jan 11, 2012 3:47 PM PST up reply actions
I think Kaep
has a higher ceiling than Alex. Whether or not he gets there.
And, if Smith makes another leap forward next season, it’s a good problem to have if Kaepernick is coming along too. I trust Harbaugh to get the most out of CK7, and he’s got WAY too much talent to not succeed if he is brought along the right way.
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Jan 11, 2012 5:20 PM PST up reply actions
Harbaugh knows QBs.... He wanted Alex Smith back and looked what happened.
I would say that CK is going to be very good when his chance comes.. I would also not pass on Tolzien. Tolzien had a pretty good preseason game against the 49ers and apparently Harbaugh liked him a lot and tried to get him after the draft.
There is always a possibility that Harbaugh will see someone else in the draft but for now, I am very comfortable with the QBs we have.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
tolzien
I too was very impressed by his performance in the preseason and was very excited that Harbaugh picked him up. Can’t wait to see what becomes of him. I have a feeling, a very strong feeling about him, if he ever gets his chance.
by mr.phibs on Jan 11, 2012 11:31 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I have a feeling he will get cut when we draft another QB next year.
Saw him in warm-ups when they were at AZ and he looked worse than a high school QB. Wasn’t very impressed while he was at Wisconsin to be honest also. I think he was and extreme case of an emergency QB.
We may draft a QB or bring another one on for the 3rd… and maybe 2nd spot depending on who.
Check out my site!! Sign up for a free account @
The Hometown Fan
preseason game a fluke?
He looked pretty poised in the pocket, had good accuracy and had the feel of a professional QB…You may be right tho, but i still think he needs a chance, he might be a HOF sleeper….LOL
by mr.phibs on Jan 12, 2012 2:35 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Nate davis did too
Not saying it’s the same, but preseason games aren’t the best indicator I guess
Either Kaepernick will develop into a star and replace Smith sooner than later
or Harbaugh will set Kaepernick up to look awesome like Reid did with Kolb and we’ll trade him for insane draft picks. Either way, I think the Kaepernick pick will be a win.
Hopefully ur right
Harbaugh is crafty enough to pull that off
by ninerafficionado on Jan 11, 2012 4:05 PM PST up reply actions
I have a strong feeling we're going to see more and more of Kaepernick either way
Particularly if the 49ers 3rd down rate continues to be dreadful. Might see him come in on 3rd downs at first.
Draft: 1. Kendall Wright 2. Trumaine Johnson
FA: Smith, Morgan, Brooks, Rogers, Snyder
by whistlingmountain on Jan 12, 2012 9:43 AM PST up reply actions
This year couldn't have progressed better for Kaepernick...
Sitting a year for him was the best possible scenario. With a limited training camp, there is no realistic way he could have been ready for any meaningful playing time. I would suspect that during this summer and next training camp, he will really be able to show how much he has progressed. And let’s not forget that Smith has had some injury problems in the past and having a good backup is a valuable commodity. Look no further than A Rodgers as someone who sat for a few years before getting his shot – sitting and learning can really be beneficial to a young QB…
"Granted, this is not a great situation, but when all you have is lemons, you add some vodka to dull the pain..."
I was definitely miffed by the Aldon Smith pick
shows you what I know.
It will be interesting to see if they throw Culliver into a starting role next year. I’m also curious what lies ahead for Kilgore and Person. Very solid draft all in all.
I’m looking for them to take a BPA approach this year and really fill out the roster with some more young talent.
I was pretty indifferent myself...
It was obvious we needed a OLB and a CB, but not having heard much about Aldon and with Prince having the big name, I wanted to go with Prince. Glad we didn’t though!
"Whoever said WAR is HELL must have been talking about Aaron Rowand" - McCoven faithful
It was a great draft
If I remember correctly, a good chunk of us we’re waiting to see how it shaked out after praying for Peterson to drop. He didn’t, and at this point none of us really care. It really shows us Niner fans had a good amount of patience after the Harbaughcalypse. The FO had a lot of points around here after getting our #1 acquisition in Harbaugh, and it was well rewarded. Credit to Baalke too!
Honorary parent of Duane Kuiper, beloved solar powered broadcaster and power hitting coach for the Giants.
Harbapocalypse is NOT over, the nation will fill it's wrath 1/14/2012
But yea the Patience mantra of NN was strong in the draft & FA period. As for the FO, “IN Harbaalke I Trust!!”. They knew what was missing on this team, filled the necessary positions in order to have a good product out there on the field. Even the UDFA’s Dobbs, Williams & Tolzien on this team have some good potiential to become starters to decent backups.
Niners,Nets,Reds & USC!!!
The Most Interesting Man In The World---->Mikhail Prokhorov!!!
by Kidd2Petrovic on Jan 11, 2012 4:00 PM PST up reply actions
*feel it's wrath
Niners,Nets,Reds & USC!!!
The Most Interesting Man In The World---->Mikhail Prokhorov!!!
by Kidd2Petrovic on Jan 11, 2012 4:00 PM PST up reply actions
you had the wrong date too, but I fixed it.
Harbapocalypse is NOT over, the nation will feel it’s wrath1/14/20122/5/2012
by reedkrase on Jan 11, 2012 4:04 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
ooooooooh nooo that's not the END DATE....Harbapocolypse never ends!!!
Sorta like the NEW MOON it happens EVERY MONTH!! 1/14/2012 is just the next time the nation gets to see it in full disclosure ;-)
Niners,Nets,Reds & USC!!!
The Most Interesting Man In The World---->Mikhail Prokhorov!!!
by Kidd2Petrovic on Jan 11, 2012 4:59 PM PST up reply actions
Even better ...
this class is moving in the right direction with great haste.
This Saturday we’ll see the whole team will be moving in the right direction!
Today's Justin Smith :: Yesterday's Bryant Young
by OffensiveInterference on Jan 11, 2012 5:23 PM PST up reply actions
I'm giving props to my sociology comparison/psychology assessment from October...
Thank god we aren’t the ones making the decisions! Not that Peterson (rookie record for return TDs) would have been bad… but man, even if we would have had #1 Cam would prolly be the only guy you could look back on and make a possibly stronger argument for.
Absolutely outstanding draft.
A++. Aldon Smith has perennial all-pro talent, as does Miller. Culliver will be a quality corner in a couple seasons, he has the most fluid hips of all the corners in that draft.
Alex Smith 86%+ QB rating with 22+ TDs this season, hopefully! :)
Yup! A++ for sure!
Imagine two years for Kaepernick and Tolzien (the mayan calendar 2012 name) developing under Harbs, and bingo, we’re going to have our next best thing to Montana/Young. Kilgore will probably turn out to be very solid, kind of like Baas did. Better even next year!
by wellnesscoach on Jan 11, 2012 6:17 PM PST up reply actions
Fun to go back and read comments posted right after the draft
for the record i was right about Aldon! http://www.ninersnation.com/2011/5/2/2148781/nfl-draft-grades-2011-how-do-we-grade-49ers-potentially-developmental#66172899
I was more wrong than right on Aldon
I didnt want him cause he was a 1-season wonder and got injured his second year though he played through it. Thought Quinn would be better. And while time will tell the whole story, hard to start much better than Aldon has.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Jan 12, 2012 6:48 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
long term will still depend on whether he can become an every down player
but he provided great immediate value for a project.
Ignoring the soulless ginger?
Bad mistake. He will regret it.
In Baalke we trust!!!
Oh man, after the draft i like many was scratching my head and going through highlights of who this Aldon Smith guy was, also why Cully deserved to be a 3rd Rounder when most all draft boards had him no higher than the 5th, also Kendall Hunter in the 4th, i think the pick i was most comfortable with besides CK was RoJo and we all know what happened there. Baalke obviously dosent puck based on popularity he actually disects these prospects and goes from there…
Baalke, Baalke, Baalke
by Frisco_Kid on Jan 11, 2012 4:00 PM PST via mobile reply actions
by the way...
if Arizona didnt swoop on PP, im curious if we would of, and also how our season would of differed from this? Im guessing we wouldnt of had Carlos Rodgers…
by Frisco_Kid on Jan 11, 2012 4:02 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
How does Mel Kiper forget about Miller?
The guy has been an absolute beast at fullback in his FIRST YEAR AT THE POSITION!! He’s only going to get better as he moves forward in his career. Big ups to Baalke, the scouts, and the front office for having the foresight to know that they could draft this kid and turn him into a force on the offensive side of the ball.
My guess is he played beyond his years so well
Kiper errantly felt he had prior time in the league.
"Maybe I need somebody that can save me from the parts of myself that keep making me crazy" -Slug-
by drizztismoneybaby on Jan 11, 2012 4:26 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Team selected him as a pro-bowl alternate.
Rookie DE at the least glamorous position in the sport.
He saved me a whole lot of hairs that I was tearing out watching Moran Noris play. And that was not only hair on my head, I should note.
Aldon woud've went #11 to Houston over Watt...#7 wasn't a reach it was actually a steal.
If our FO hits like this on the 2012 draft we could be talking about one of the best teams for this decade.
We can only hope!
"Maybe I need somebody that can save me from the parts of myself that keep making me crazy" -Slug-
by drizztismoneybaby on Jan 11, 2012 4:28 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
but we won't have a high round pick
FO will have a lot fewer options. If they manage to hit on the next draft we’re looking at years of good picks.
Yes that wont have the ability to draft the bluechip prospects
but it does allow the FO to draft players that they are considered projects and can be groomed behind established starters. I wouldnt be as worried if we did not have a stellar coaching staff that can develop younger players and put them in places to succeed. I know the rookie cap has solved some of the issue but players drafted in the top 15 or so picks are usually rushed on the field before they are ready
Late round picks are like money in the bank!
Desperate teams are always looking to trade future picks to get back up in the end of rounds.
one of the best teams for this decade.
With our defense the way it is, we are really close to being the most complete team in the league but we really need a few things to get there:
- One really good safety (a la Earl Thomas… boy I’m happy we picked Davis over him)
- Alex Smith to develop into a top 10 level QB or to find a QB who can make us have a respected/dangerous passing offense
- Kendall Hunter to be the heir apparent to Gore, which he’s shown flashes of
Granted the QB one is tough (or not so tough depending on how you view Smith) but we’re not far off at all.
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Jan 11, 2012 4:36 PM PST up reply actions
Tough to beat the '86 draft
…but this draft has the potential to be mentioned in same breath if Kaepernick develops, which I’m still very optimistic he will (either as an eventual Smith replacement or as a Kolb-style trade chip, as alluded to by others). It’s nice to sit back and relish a draft like this, knowing there’s more to come—especially after living through horrorshow drafts like 2002 (Mike Rumph!) and 2003 (Kwame Harris!).
"And the Warriors won, so I guess your household is pretty happy"--Donald Sutherland, Invasion of the Body Snatchers, 1978
A’s
Funny, I had that same feeling about the team before the season’s started as well
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Jan 11, 2012 4:32 PM PST reply actions
I went into this draft with a lot of trust for Harbaugh and Baalke, and they haven't let me down
but I have to think that even they are shocked at the various quick successes of these guys.
I’m excited for this long-term, hopefully Kaepernick turns this into one of the best drafts ever and hopefully they follow it up with another great draft that puts them into position to keep this going for 5+ years.
Draft: 1. Kendall Wright 2. Trumaine Johnson
FA: Smith, Morgan, Brooks, Rogers, Snyder
by whistlingmountain on Jan 11, 2012 4:47 PM PST reply actions
I was cautiously optimistic about Aldon
I felt that a pass rusher was definitely something the Niners needed dearly, but wasn’t expecting much from someone who wasn’t going to be an every-down type of player. How wrong I was lol.
I still remember people saying how Aldon made the draft a C but Kaepernick made it a B draft. lol
extrabaggs
"Just your typical Giants scoring rally: A faceburger on the basepaths, two errors from the second baseman and a bases-loaded balk."
Kiper's a troll , don't care for that Cat , now he's giving me more reason to do so ...!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!
Surprised as well
That no Bruce Miller, but a Dan Kilgore mention. I’m surprised he didn’t try and say the Ronald Johnson was a great pick but…
Sometimes Kiper makes just shake my head. However, our draft class is turning out to be awesome and usually you find out about draft classes about 2-3 years after. It’ll be fun to watch
I will be honest
I though Aldon was a reach where he was picked. I thought it was a bad choice, and I was bummed that Peterson got taken one sooner.
I will now happily eat my words.
And, shout out to Bruce Miller, cause Mel Kiper forgot to; that’s ok, he can just go back and grade it a 3rd time, giving us an A+.
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
Yeah Aldon Smith made me doubt the Harbaugh era early on
I started to become discouraged about Baalke as a our GM, but boy they have proven us all wrong.
"Winning means being unafraid to lose." – Fran Tarkenton
Blog posts and comments are fun
But we need to leave the real decisions to competent professionals. Baalke and Harbaugh, plus the scouts, have proven themselves to be as good as anyone in the league. Regardless what happens during the playoffs (any given Sunday), I’m excited to see what they do in April and how that draft class does.
"(I)f you think you've got an inside track to absolute truth, you become doctrinaire, humorless and intellectually constipated." Saul Alinsky
DITTO
Really never have understood the fascination with Kiper. Think a dart board would be only marginally less accurate. The guy’s done a great job marketing himself, and would suffer (and has) with critical retrospective analysis. Big kudos to the Niner FO, another couple drafts like this is how dynasties happen.
by TheCatch81 on Jan 11, 2012 7:20 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
So what were Balkes 2 best draft picks and 2 worst draft picks....
since he has had control of the 9ers drafts?
picks
Looking at the last two drafts, I’d say the two worst are Ronald Johnson and Taylor Mays and the two best are Aldon Smith and NaVorro Bowman.
by David Fucillo on Jan 11, 2012 7:01 PM PST up reply actions
I wish we knew the true story about the Mays selection...
I know it’s been said that Sing basically forced the pick, but Baalke doesn’t strike me as the type to just roll over and pick a player he didn’t at least partially believe could succeed. It’s easy to heap all the negatives on an outgoing coach and it seems like the Mays pick was pinned on Sing as he left. Don’t get me wrong, I believe Sing probably fell in love w/ Mays’ athleticism and probably wanted him, but Baalke still approved the pick when the time came.
So, yeah, I’d agree best picks were Aldon and NaVorro, but I’d also argue Baalke gets too much of a pass on the crappy Mays pick—2nd rounders shouldn’t be wasted! RoJo was bad, too, given how well Baldwin’s done and Harbaugh coached him at Stanford. I’d also argue Anthony Davis, though not a terrible pick, was a bad pick at #11 because Earl Thomas would look great in red and gold and right tackles are easier to find than play-making safeties. All in all, Baalke’s done his job well enough, shown improvement w/ this most recent draft, and hopefully continues to hit on more players than he misses.
"The principle is competing against yourself. It's about self improvement, about being better than you were the day before." ~Steve Young #8
by Young_To_Rice on Jan 11, 2012 7:25 PM PST up reply actions
I'd agree with this 100 percent
I think Bruce Miller and NaVorro Bowman would be top two for me if we were talking about draft steals – Bruce Miller will be the best FB in the league in a couple seasons. I already think he’s a top 5 FB in the NFL.
Alex Smith 86%+ QB rating with 22+ TDs this season, hopefully! :)
Pro Bowl Alternate at FB isn't that big of a deal
Maybe half the league employs fullbacks and most are late round or undrafted.
But how many of them are defensive converts who have never played the position?
If Bruce was a standard FB are coming out of college I would agree with you but being a Defensive End and being surprised when you are drafted as a FB then having no Offseason to adjust to the position being a Pro Bowl Alternate is a pretty big deal. Not only for Bruce but for Baalke & Harbaugh who potentially saw this outcome when they drafted him
Bruce actually looks like he can be a viable down the field threat.
A big back that can do that is much less common. I mean he could basically develop into a very powerful vertical weapon in the passing game. More like a Jason Witten playing out of the backfield.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Jan 12, 2012 6:59 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
I really wish we would have given Ronald Johnson more of a chance i know he struggled in preseason he was a beast at USC
by 49erEmpire on Jan 11, 2012 7:34 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
He was dreadful.
Alex Smith 86%+ QB rating with 22+ TDs this season, hopefully! :)
I mean when you have your Head Coach admitting to making a mistake
when they drafted Ronald Johnson over Doug Baldwin I find it hard to agree. But if you tell me that the only mistake they made in the ’11 drafted was missing on a 6th round pick then you really gotta say that they had an excellent draft
Someday we might be adding kdub to that list
Assuming his brain isn’t permanently fubar from that disaster against the seasquaks. Angry just thinking of it.
Aldon’s ceiling looks ginormous. He’ll have to develop some more pass rush moves and learn all the many nuances of the 3-4 OLB, but he could be truly special.
Of course, the big huge miss, and we can probably blame this on Singletary, is Davis over soon to be perennial All-Pro all-world Earl Thomas. We’ll never get that one back. Hopefully Davis improves or finds a home at guard.
Also worth noting that we have no clue what we have in Holcomb. With the way Balke was picking em, I wouldn’t bet against his having some skills.
The A. Davis pick over Thomas must have been...
A case of a GM selecting a player to fit the ‘scheme’ (and I use that word loosely here) of the coaching staff. Sing wanted ‘physical w/ an F,’ which I’m sure led him to believe Davis was the type of mauling, run-blocking tackle that would fit in w/ his offense. We all know Sing’s offensive philosophy was garbage and poorly executed, but that’s the only explanation I can come up w/ to explain how Baalke and his scouts would choose a lineman at #11 rather than Earl Thomas or another impact position player. I mean, clearly this past draft illustrates the 49ers personnel department can evaluate talent at a high level.
Baalke probably died a little inside when he made that pick, maybe even a little, too, when he selected Iupati in the same round, but at the very least a talented guard at #17 is better than a project at #11 w/ talent on the board. The mistake was hiring Sing, but then also not firing him sooner when it was clear his ability to be a head coach and develop schemes was abysmal. Who knows, maybe Baalke would’ve cut ties w/ Sing earlier if he had been officially the 49ers GM at that point. Had Sing not been coach, Baalke wouldn’t have been hindered by having to draft players to fit an archaic system. Still, he shares the blame, and I’m confident he’s learned from the whole cluster f that was Sing’s tenure.
"The principle is competing against yourself. It's about self improvement, about being better than you were the day before." ~Steve Young #8
by Young_To_Rice on Jan 11, 2012 8:13 PM PST up reply actions
What is not being considered
The price of a starting tackle in the NFL these days. Half the league is now using 1st round picks on RTs because of simple law of supply and demand.
Singletary
When the Niners hired Mike Singletary as head coach there was hardly a word of dissent around here. Credit Jed for recognizing the mistake quickly then taking action to rectify the problem.
"(I)f you think you've got an inside track to absolute truth, you become doctrinaire, humorless and intellectually constipated." Saul Alinsky
Get over Earl Thomas
He is a better play than Goldson but he isn’t that much better at this point. You act like that pick would have made the 49ers the ’85 Bears.
Last I looked Crabtree was still burning Earl Thomas for game winners. Always a second late and tackle short.
Yeah!!
it’s true because , cause good safeties never give up receptions. Like, I never saw Ronnie Lott get dragged 30 yards by Mark Bavaro, cause if I had that would’ve meant he sucked.
And let’s not even talk about how Goldson has shut down the downfield pass completely this year. Michael Vick? Tony Romo? John Skelton? See ya!!!
Keep up the good work here. You guys are a real dream team.
You convinced me
Missing out on a dynasty because of that Earl Thomas pick. Where are the 49ers going to find a Pro Bowl level FS?
Think I was actually saying that the team would be much better but for that pick
which is something most informed (and sane) watchers of football would happily concede, but if moving the goal posts saves some face for you, have at it.
Fine, I'll give you one name
As it seems u are unwilling to look into it yourself. Rodger Saffold could’ve easily been traded up for with the pick we threw away on Davis, and he has easily outperformed him in these last two years in a tougher role, notwithstanding his injury this year. There are several other examples but it’s lat and I’m tired. Point being it’s absurd to think that if we hadn’t used that pick on a tackle we wouldn’t have had any other options.
Threw away too strong
Should say used. It was a bad pick under the circumstances, but I actually like Davis and hope he will become a great lineman, tackle or otherwise.
Saffold was terrible this season
He is also a terrible run blocker which forces him to play LT. Oh and wouldn’t have been available if the 49ers drafted The Earl of Thomas, not unless the 49ers traded back up into the 1st round cause Saffold was the #33 pick.
I said traded up
This has been known to happen in the NFL, fyi. And Saffold was selected to multiple all rookie teams, then played less well in his sophomore season. That’s really not all that uncommon. And since when do LT’s not have to run block?? Larry Allen might be surprised to hear that.
Meanwhile, you’re talking about Saffold as if Davis has been’the answer’? Hoe many sacks has that guy given up this year? How many false starts? Truly, I’d genuinely love to know what is it about is play that makes the idea of not drafting him so anathema to you, because it’s frankly beginning to make me laugh hysterically.
Yes Anthony Davis is such a disappointing pick
Think the 49ers could have maneuvered and drafted …
Jason Smith
Trent Williams
James Carpenter
Gabe Carimi
Derek Sherrod
Eugene Monroe
Andre Smith
Seems everyone found a fantastic 1st Rnd OT but us.
I don't even know what u mean by that
is the fact that a lot of 1st round offensive lineman turn out to be busts supposed to be an argument for taking one?
While you’re working out the knots you’ve.managed to tie yourself in, I’ll just throw out another name for you: James Veldheer. Jesse we wouldn’t a even had to trade up for him, and far better career thus far than Davis and for much less money too. And… Crickets.
Speaking of which, still looking for the the inside scoop on why we would’ve been garbage without Davis. Take your time.
Means you when grade Davis out compared to his peers
He isn’t a bad draft pick or bad OT. He gets compared to everyone’s imagination of Anthony Munoz on here. In reality he has returned some real value for the 49ers at OT, they could have done much, much worse. See the list I just posted. If you don’t believe in the importance of an OT you missed the 49ers 2009 season.
My hole? You are still arguing 2nd Alternate qualifies as Pro Bowl. You are still arguing Earl Thomas is Mt. Everest better than Goldson when both are 1st time Pro Bowlers this season. You threw in soft comparison of Earl Thomas to Patrick Willis as far as greatness. BTW, Goldson the 1st year he started for the 49ers made the Pro Bowl alternate list. Yes such a huge divide between the two players.
But what really set me off about your whole rant up above is you blame for Singletary for the Davis pick over Thomas. The 49ers never looked at Earl Thomas, not because Singletary wanted to play smash mouth but because the 49ers FO since 2005 have always put an emphasis on size and Earl is kinda smallish. They never gave him a visit, he’d never make their list as a 1st Rnd pick. Anyone reading the newsletters the last few years would know this.
Ya, threw out a real convincing argument with Saffold and Veldheer examples. Don’t even recognize Saffold was terrible this year and would never start at RT. Veldheer was so highly regarded by the Raiders they tried to play him at center than guard until injuries and lack of performance amongst the line moved him to OT while Al Davis insisted he must play because Al Davis picked him.
You are right, we could of had Earl Thomas.
We could have moved some picks around to pick at 22 and get Bulaga
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Jan 12, 2012 7:06 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
We could have moved some picks around to pick at 22 and get Bulaga
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Jan 12, 2012 7:06 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
The return of high comedy
That’s probably the weakest argument yet, which is really saying something. Davis’s peers are the other tackles in the league. Is that really something you want to argue? Even if you’d want to narrow the comparison to those tackles that could’ve been gotten since we got Davis, you’re going to have to go outside the first round of the last few drafts, as well as into free agency and what was available by trade. This appears to be real difficult for you, but there are in fact other ways to obtain lineman in this league than drafting them in the first round.
As to Veldheer, where you get your information is anyone’s guess. The Raiders liked him plenty, notwithstanding Cable’s funny ideas about moving lineman around. By mid-season last year he was their starting left tackle, and he’s dramatically outperformed Davis to date, including blanking Jared Allen this year. I shudder to think what would happen if Allen lined up over Davis. So, in summary, vast outperformance of Davis for less money at a tougher position. Your argument that o lineman ABSOLUTELY MUST be drafted in the 1st is staggering mightily.
So might as well kill it then. Veldheer and Saffold, who had a remarkable rookie year, are just two names, and both guys that were drafted. I haven’t even talked about trades or FAs. The Seahawks arguably got as good tackle play out of Giacomini, some would say better, as we got out of Davis. How does that square with your ‘has to be first round even though they’re all busts’ argument???
There now, blown up for you.
As for Thomas...
…the guy is already rated inordinately higher than Goldson by front offices around the league, and not just because of his vastly higher ceiling. This is not a matter of speculation. The collective shoulder shrug at the free agency of a 27 year old Goldson speaks volumes.
Nor is it hard to understand why Goldson is not valued like Thomas. Thomas started as a 21 year old rookie and made pro-bowl alternate. Goldson didn’t even get meaningful PT until he was a 25 year old third year player, when he made pro-bowl alternate. Thomas has substantially better ball and coverage skills and closing speed than Goldson, and it’s not close. This, just fyi, is known to be important in this league.
As to whether Thomas is ‘smallish’, he isn’t. His height, weight and build are a dead ringer for Ed Reed. Granted, Thomas is smaller than Goldson, but so what? He is one of the best hitting safeties in football, and were we on a Seahawks blog, I’d almost assuredly have to be going through a similarly painful argument with a different homer fan about how Goldson hits harder.
And frankly, the difference between Goldson and Thomas is more meaningful than even the pro-bowls and the stats reveal. Thomas provides a great counterpunch to the mismatches that make NFL offenses go in this day and age of fast athletic tight ends and receiving threats out of the backfield, (you may have heard something about this subject matter this week).
Take for example, I don’t know, Jimmy Graham. Just off the top of my head here. Thomas is a much better match-up in zone or man against him then Goldson because of his speed, coverage ability and ball skills. And this kind of thing gives defensive coordinators a lot more latitude to how they game plan these teams. That makes meaningful differences to victories and losses, which is of course why I care.
All of which explains the reference to Willis. Laurinaitis is a good ilb, and would, if not for the team he plays on and the fact that making pro bowl at ilb is inordinately difficult with all the 3-4s in the league, almost certainly have a pro-bowl reserve on his resume. The thing is, you can’t know football and claim that these two guys are roughly the same talent level. That’s just not tenable. And yet, I could just as easily play the obstinacy for the sake of obstinacy card that you’ve turned into 50 comments about how close they are in value. But that wouldn’t make the argument any less inane.
Whatever. If your problem is that it wasn’t Singletary’s fault, but Baalke’s, then make that argument. I’m amenable to it. But you’re not arguing that. You’re arguing that Davis has been ‘the difference maker’ in a positive way I guess, and that Goldson is about the same as Thomas. And both arguments are just plain inane.
Okung was drafted to play LT
LT, because it provides blind side protection to a right-handed QB, is almost always going to be far more important than a RT. So…a LT pick before Thomas (or any other solid talent) makes more sense than a project RT. I like Davis and think he’ll still continue to mature and develop, but the 49ers would be in better shape long-term w/ Thomas at safety and a FA or later draft pick at RT. There’s nothing anti-49ers in saying that.
"The principle is competing against yourself. It's about self improvement, about being better than you were the day before." ~Steve Young #8
by Young_To_Rice on Jan 12, 2012 10:56 AM PST up reply actions
Yeah what's the precedent for exceptional safety play making a defense elite?
Talk about a wacky idea!! Think of all the no name free safeties on those dominating defenses of the Superbowl Ravens or Bucs or Steelers, or even those Niner defenses that recorded some important wins over some pretty prolific passing offenses back in the day. QED, huh bn?
As to Earl Thomas, the kid has (a lot) more speed than any of our dbs. He’s got better ball skills than any of our dbs. He has better coverage skills than any of our dbs. And he’s not far behind Goldson in dishing out punishing hits. Truly, if you think the two a similar in value than you really ought to be running a front office, because you would be the lone voice for that particular perspective in the NFL.
Don’t take my word for it of course- put in a call to Dashon’s agent. No team valued the guy enough to invest even middling money in him in the offseason. No doubt he’s moved the needle some this year, but the claim that he’s ‘not much better’ than a athletically gifted 22 year old two-time pro bowl free safety, and starter this year would be taken as high comedy on a different website. In other news, James Laurinaitis is ‘almost as good’ as Patrick Willis.
Persuasive stuff there bn. Remind me to sign up for your newsletter.
Okay I could agree with all your points until you got to the part where you said
“He has better coverage skills than any of our dbs”
Yeah umm Carlos has better coverage skills than Earl Thomas
Fair point
Wasn’t thinking about Rogers for some reason. Rogers excepted, point stands.
You should read my newsletter
You’d know Earl Thomas is a 1st time Pro Bowler.
BTW, my feature story this month, “LOLine: A look back at Adam Snyder at RT”.
He was an alternate
and the difference is immaterial.
As to Synder, yeah, you may not have heard but there were other tackles available in the draft/free agency/by trade in the last few years. Indeed, I could swear that a number of other teams even in our division are using right tackles right now they didn’t have then that grade out better than Davis has to date.
Maybe your newsletter isn’t worth it after all.
2nd Alternate that did not go to the Pro Bowl. Under this criteria it makes Goldson a two time Pro Bowler for 2009.
Last months news letter had a small segment on OTs via free agency, “For the Love of Tim Tebow, Marvel Smith Couldn’t Suit Up To Practice”.
Was Goldson a 21year old rookie when he was an alternate?
Did Goldson even play as a rookie? Has Goldson ever been selected as a starter to the pro bowl? Forgetting pro-bowls, as they are forgettable, Thomas is simply an infinitely better player than Goldson, and that’s just not going to get a debate outside of this seemingly hermetically sealed bubble that some of the nners like to occupy. So I’ve lead you to the water here and if you prefer the hole in the ground, have at it.
I love though that you’re cavalierly writing off dozens of players, some of whom have stockpiled decent tape in the last few years, for a guy most people on nn were ready to run out of town on a rail after the Baltimore game, amongst others. Truly, you have some astonishing powers of insight.
Singletary was bad at seeing talent
when he said that he didn’t see the talent in Patrick Willis right away. Only later as he got to know him did he start to come around. Hello! Most of the league saw his talent rigt away as it was obvious.
A couple more years of Singletary drafting would have set us back how many years i don’t know.
If anyone has not seen this Aldon Smith video on 49ers.com, it's a must see... it got me really pumped for what's to come:
Kid has a bright future and I am so happy we drafted him over anyone else.
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I love it so much
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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I remember watching the combine
Mayock was talking about Aldon being a project but in the mold of Jason Pierre Paul, raw but physically gifted. So I didn’t hate pick, I just worried that he wouldn’t have the immediate impact that you’d expect from the 7th overall pick. Loved the Kaep pick, like most people. I remember Mayock talking about Culliver as having the most fluid hips of all corners outside Peterson and Prince. He had good speed but needed to play lower and learn the nuances of the position but he had lots of potential. I really liked the pick because I knew that with his potential and good coaching, we’d have a good corner. I really like this draft overall even before they stepped out on the field.
I could be wrong
But I know that Mayock really liked JPP because of his freakish athleticism. And when he talked about Aldon, he said the same kinds of things. Talked about his size, speed, arm length, etc.
I have a hard time believing the comparison to JPP
Because no one was sure JPP was a football player entering his draft. “He athletic for sure, just show the video.” (clip runs of 11 consecutive flips).
I didn't mean like a direct comparison
I meant more like an great physical athlete that has lots of potential. Spend time to develop them and hope they learn the position well enough to become a great player.
Maybe you didnt know he'd be a player. I said he the guy would be a pro bowler
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Jan 12, 2012 7:10 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Bruce Miller
I think he has been the most surprising pick out of everyone.
A lot of people thought it would take Aldon a while to get going but I knew he was going to be a force pretty quick… he still has a long way to go to become the “complete package” but I knew he was gonna get his sacks…. not 14, or so… so that was a nice suprise, but knew he would be a factor.
Bruce Miller has come in here and channeled the great Tom Rathman week in and week out and it is scary that he is only going to get better under the guy he resembles. To me, Aldon has gotten the most production, but Miller is right there with him. This guy is going to be a great fullback for us for years to come.
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Maybe it was good to hold on to Moran this season
Sometimes guys know the position inside and out but just can’t make it translate the field for whatever reason. I think coach Rathman and Frank deserve lots of credit for helping Bruce but I like to think Moran has had the biggest impact. He may be terrible at the position himself but I always thought he was a good teammate and probably helped Bruce make that conversion.
I hate to admit it but you seem to be really on to something there
Its obvious that he isnt a starter at any level but he seems to be an individual that could be a great mentor to a younger player like Bruce. Coach Rathman has to be commended for the work he has done with Hunter & Miller but someone like Moran can be someone they lean for the vast amount of experience they have especially in the position meetings & with transitioning to the NFL lifestyle
Leaning on other vets is huge for rookies
As much as players spend time with coaches in practice and meetings, they spend even more with their teammates. Moran probably spent more time with him than coach Rathman, going over the playbook, spending extra time in film study, and just showing him how to be a professional.
by agchee on Jan 11, 2012 9:17 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I give my vote to Culliver, due to his lack of playing cb in college.
Although Miller is fabulous, cb position is more difficult to play, and he’s better in coverage this year, than Clements ever was.
"What the hell are you mixing in that look-aid"
You're right... CB is much harder to play... but it's not like he is going from WR to CB... he is going DB to DB.
What Miller has done in moving from DE to FB and understanding an intricate offense like the ones they are STILL installing… man, kudos to that guy. I think he has got potential to be better than Rathman even.
Guy blocks and catches with the best of ’em.
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Clements, as a player, was summed up for me in a late play...
In the Cincinnati-Houston game last week. Foster had the ball going down the sideline to put the game out of reach and Clements (and other Bengals) had a shot to make a tackle and stop him. Instead, Clements clearly slowed up and quit, which allowed Foster to easily score and ice the game. If you can’t compete for 60 minutes in a playoff game, wtf? No wonder Harbaugh and his staff jettisoned his ass to Cincinnati.
"The principle is competing against yourself. It's about self improvement, about being better than you were the day before." ~Steve Young #8
by Young_To_Rice on Jan 12, 2012 11:00 AM PST up reply actions
The Front Office & The Coaching Staff are working so well in unison that we have to place our faith that they can continue to draft well & prepare them for live football
Trent & Coach will continue to bring in solid draftees that will turn into solid contributors to the team. Obviously not every player will be a superstar all-pro but if they can bring 2 or 3 potential starters and solid backups then we can expect this team to continue on the course they are going now
i know this was in the 2010 draft, but I also think that Kyle Williams has turned out to be a very surprising and excellent pick. makes me not nearly as bummed about not drafting/signing Baldwin after this year’s draft.
This to a 1,000,000
If the previous regime had stayed on board I dont think that KW would have unleashed some of the potential he has but with this coaching staff he can be a really good WR. Obviously injuries played a factor in him getting on the field but its the classic “next-man-up” situation and if he & the coaching staff didnt have him ready it wouldnt have had the same impact it did
Just watched No Huddle on NFLN
Really makes me mad that not a single one of those guys gives the 49ers any chance to win. You’d think that I’d be use to not getting any respect by now. But it still gets to me to hear all those guys talk about the Saints as though they can’t be beat like Brady and the Patriots a few years ago.
Jalen Rose still on there?
I think I should get a shot at that show. A couple sports related podcasts, is that all I need to qualify?
Jaime likes to debate
But no one else on that show likes to do their homework so they are all gun shy to challenge him at times.
Sorry I should have elaborated, I meant Intelligent debate
The guy loves to argue but he relies so much on misconceptions that its hard to take him seriously as an analyst
He is usually 50/50. He doesn’t back down on opinions when he knows he is wrong. Its also the reason he’s on that network, he is a proven broadcaster that gets attention. Everyone else on that network is either a HOF or media favorite, he earned his way to that spot.
You make a good point
He certainly gets fans talking and he should be commended for that for garnering that level of attention
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