Home 49ers vs Road Saints

There has been a lot made in the media about the "struggles" the saints have had on the road. It is well documented that in terms of points scored and allowed the Saints basically turn into the Chargers on the road. It is an interesting discrepancy but one that I dont feel tells the whole story of this matchup we are going to have the privledge of watching on Saturday.

To me the main factor that we should be considering when it comes to home vs road performanc is not how "poorly" the saints do on the road but instead how well the 49ers play at home.

After the jump lets take a look at some numbers.

First lets look at the passing stats...

Team PCT YDS/A TD TD% INT INT% SACK RATE

Saints 70.4 8.0 17 4.7 8 2.2 16 100.5

49ers 62.6 7.7 12 5.6 3 1.4 13 99.3

So first thing we notice is that we can expect the 49ers and Saints to have nearly identical passing attacks in San Francisco with the main difference being the amount of times the Saint throw the ball.

Lets see how the running game looks...

Team YDS/G YD/A

Saints 100.1 3.9

49ers 128.9 3.9

So again we have identical rushing attacks in terms of yards per carry with the main difference being that the 49ers run the ball more often. Ok let me splain...no there is too much let me sum up. Basically what the rate stats are showing us is that in terms of offense the teams are basically equals in San Francisco. Now I dont really think that 49ers are equal offensively to the Saints at any venue (it just doesnt pass the smell test) but the numbers seem to bear it out that way. At the very least the gap between the two offenses is smaller than one would guess.

Of course what really matters when it comes to offense is how many points you put on the board. So lets take a look at that.

Saints 27.2

49ers 27.6

Basically it seems as though the game is going to come down to which team has the better defense and special teams. Hmmm???

For the record points allowed per game...

Saints 24.5

49ers 10.9

Just one more little tid bit of information regarding turnovers.

The 49ers have committed just 4 turnovers at home this season and the Saints have only forced 5 turnovers on the road this season.

The 49ers have forced 23 of 38 (60.5%) of their turnovers at home this season and the Saints have committed 12 of 19 (63.2%) of their turnovers on the road.