The Myth of the Weak 49ers Offense
by smileyman on Jan 13, 2012 9:00 AM PST
in 49ers By The Numbers
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The big talk this week has been about how to limit Drew Brees and the Saints and what will happen if the 49ers get into a shooting war with the Saints. Leaving aside the strength of the 49ers defense (which I think matches up well with the Saints), there's the strength of the offense to consider.
In my opinion the 49ers offense is underrated and has been for a long time. I have no concerns about the 49ers hanging with the Saints, because it's shown that it can hang against other so-called "power" offenses like the Eagles, Giants, Cowboys and Lions. Yes the 49ers lost to the Cowboys, but that was in overtime and a game which could have easily gone the other way.
I want to take a look at the actual strengths of the 49ers offense and compare the to the Saints and see where we end up. To be clear I'm not going to argue that the 49ers offense is as good as the Saints offense. What I am going to try and show is that it's not as bad as has been claimed, nor is it a hopeless match up in a game vs a high powered offense.
Points per game
The whole point of an offense is to score points. This is where the 49ers show the biggest deficiency in comparison to the Saints. The Saints averaged just over 34 points per game, the 49ers just over 23, an 11 point differential. Looking at the rankings though and it's rather surprising. The Saints ranked are ranked 2nd the 49ers a surprising 11th. Far from being a terrible offense they're better than half the teams in the league at scoring points.
How do they compare to other playoff teams? The Houston Texans also scored an average of 24.8 points per game, but nobody talks about them like they can't hang with the big boys. The New York Giants scored an average of 24.6 points per game, essentially the same as the 49ers. The Detroit Lions averaged 29.6 points per game and squeaked into the playoffs.
Point differential
The Saints had an average of 13.2 points more than their opponents over the course of the season, which is best in the NFL. The 49ers had a 9.4 points per game differential, which is 4th in the NFL. The key thing about this is that on away games the Saints differential is only 2.8 points per game, and at home the 49ers differential is 16.8 points per game. In other words the Saints win on the road on average by less than a field goal.
Yards per points
How many yards does it take to get those points? In other words, how effective is your offense? Saints average one point every 13.4 yards of offense, while the 49ers average a point every 13.1 yards of offense. Lower is better, because it means you don't have to go as far. The Green Bay Packers are an astonishing 11.6 ypp, while the Rams are an awful 23.5 ypp.
Time of Possession
The time of possession between the two teams is almost the same as well. The Saints controlled the clock 32:03 out of every game, the 49ers controlled the clock 32:00 out of every game. The last three games the Saints have controlled the clock for 32:57 every game and the 49ers for 32:13 for every game. Literally only seconds separate the two team's offenses.
Points per play
This is an important one as well for judging an offense's productivity. The Saints are at an astonishing .494 points per play (ranked 2nd in the NFL), but the 49ers aren't far behind, ranked 8th at .383 points.
Red Zone Offense
The 49ers red zone offense has been much maligned, but I'm here to tell you that it's all lies. The 49ers make 3.0 red zone attempts per game, good enough for 10th in the league. The Saints average 5.4 red zone attempts per game (good enough for best in the NFL). However, the 49ers at home average 4.2 red zone attempts, while the Saints away only average 4.0.
How about converting those attempts? The 49ers average 1.6 conversions per game at home. The Saints average 1.8 conversions per game while away.
Random Scoring Stats
The 49ers are ranked 10th in the league in 2nd half points. They're ranked 13th in the NFL in 4th quarter points.
DVOA
Tossing this in as a random statistic as well. Football Outsiders ranks the 49ers as 15th in overall DVOA, which is better than half the league (and not nearly as atrocious as some would have us believe). Here's something that might surprise you--pass offense is ranked 12th in DVOA.
QB Comparisons
Some more good news. Alex Smith is ranked 10th in the league in yards per attempt at 7.07. That's almost as good as Matthew Stafford (7.62), Matt Ryan (7.32), and Ben Roethlisberger (7.95). Nobody ever talks about those QBs as being game managers.
Alex Smith is ranked 9th in the NFL in QB rating. He's thrown fewer interceptions this year than any other QB in the league. He's ranked 17th in the league in TDs, which isn't great but certainly isn't awful. Here's another fun fact: Alex Smith gains 11.5 yards per completion. The high flying Drew Brees gains 11.7 yards per completion. Alex Smith has led 5 game winning drives this season (team was behind when the offense started and the drive ended in the go-ahead score). Drew Brees had 4.
To summarize--the offense isn't nearly as bad as some people would believe. Is it as high flying as the Saints offense? Of course not. Is it awful? No it's not, unless you count being middle of the pack or slightly better as awful. Can the 49ers keep up with the Saints in a shoot out? Yeah, I think they can. Alex Smith's average yards per completion is nearly the same as Drew Brees. Turn Alex loose and let him do his thing and I think the team will be fine.
That's assuming that there's going to be a shootout, which there won't be. The key fact to remember is that the Saints only averaged 27 points a game on the road, and the 49ers have averaged 28 points a game at home.
In other words, the game will come down to the the 4th quarter and I have every confidence in Alex Smith and the rest of the offense that they can win this thing.
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Our offense is better than Baltimore's in 2000...
…and Alex Smith is a hell of a lot better than Trent Dilfer was that year. That latter comparison, in particular, continues to annoy me.
As you noted, advanced stats like DVOA (and EPA/WPA) rank our offense as right around average for the NFL. There’s certainly room for improvement, and I don’t think we’re likely to win a shootout against Brees, but you are right it’s far from hopeless.
Baltimore defense was much better than ours too. It just is not a good comparison. I prefer the 2002 Bucs as Johnson was actually a decent quarterback.
Don't think you can say that defense was much better
This is a pretty damn great defense too.
by dozybolox13 on Jan 13, 2012 10:43 AM PST up reply actions
if we win the superbowl
then we can say we are as good as that ravens and bucs team
Coach Harbaugh is the truth!!
Thanks, Smileyman, for demolishing the myth of the weak Niners offense...
…and putting some meat behind my prediction that Niners will win by a TD or more.
Young Bill Barnwell over at Grantland has also crunched his numbers and seen the light.
Loved that Barnwell piece...
…thanks for posting. On a tangential note, this comment gave me pause:
And after finishing second in the league in takeaways during their Super Bowl season of 2009, the Saints had the second-fewest takeaways in football this past regular season. Yuck.
I worry something similar might happen to our defense next year. Not that we’ll fall to 28th in defensive DVOA like the Saints, but I suspect we’re going to see some regression.
Absolutely, there will be some regression to the mean for the D next year
Justin will be older, and Niners may lose Goldson, Rogers, and Brooks (Although I think at least one of the three will be back). On the other hand, Aldon and Culliver will blossom, and Niners draft may produce another starter or two. The offense will improve significantly and pick up the slack.
All excellent points
I just meant that when a team’s ratio of takeaways to turnovers exceeds league average one year, they’re likely to regress towards that average due to random chance the next.
Voted 5 and 7 pts...
Revert back to the Giants vs 49ers game to be a sort of a “blueprint” , for a lack of a better term, of how the 49ers will win this game!!
Niners,Nets,Reds & USC!!!
The Most Interesting Man In The World---->Mikhail Prokhorov!!!
Giants have a way better defense and a WAY better pass rush
by reedkrase on Jan 13, 2012 9:40 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
exactly better pass rush...
But secondary are about the same for both Giants & Saints, which bodes well for the 49ers…
Niners,Nets,Reds & USC!!!
The Most Interesting Man In The World---->Mikhail Prokhorov!!!
by Kidd2Petrovic on Jan 13, 2012 9:51 AM PST up reply actions
true...
he has a history of doing well against the biltz anyway, which is pretty remarkable when you actually start looking at prior offensive schemes he played in!!
Niners,Nets,Reds & USC!!!
The Most Interesting Man In The World---->Mikhail Prokhorov!!!
by Kidd2Petrovic on Jan 13, 2012 9:54 AM PST up reply actions
after being thrown under the bus by Nolan
he seems to have learned how to jump out of the way pretty efficiently
by reedkrase on Jan 13, 2012 9:58 AM PST up reply actions 8 recs
touche..
Niners,Nets,Reds & USC!!!
The Most Interesting Man In The World---->Mikhail Prokhorov!!!
by Kidd2Petrovic on Jan 13, 2012 11:15 AM PST up reply actions
this game rests in the hands of Anthony Davis
if he struggles, they will pile on him. I believe in Davis and he has tons more talent than anyone he will face.
I wouldn't pin it on him
If we’re talking blitz pickups the entire line has struggled on and off, but they have been very good at home.
The game doesn’t rest on one players shoulders, but if we’re talking whose performance will most dictate who wins and loses based on their deviations through the year then it’s gotta be Alex Smith. If he has a good game, 49ers probably win, if he has a bad game, 49ers probably lose.
Draft: 1. Kendall Wright 2. Trumaine Johnson
FA: Smith, Morgan, Brooks, Rogers, Snyder
by whistlingmountain on Jan 13, 2012 10:28 AM PST up reply actions
If Davis whiffs on blocks
Smith will be making turf angels. Williams loves his exotic blitzes. The player that struggles the most with blitzes (that is not on the bench) is Davis. If he misses it is really all over. The Saints know who to pick on. That said, I think Davis rises to the occasion and their game plan is shot.
let's not forget once-in-a while Staley & Snyder has whiffed too
this year, so as whitsling said it’s the entire offensive line needs to have a good game
Niners,Nets,Reds & USC!!!
The Most Interesting Man In The World---->Mikhail Prokhorov!!!
by Kidd2Petrovic on Jan 13, 2012 11:14 AM PST up reply actions
on Mike and Mike
They brought a pretty cool stat about the Saints sacks this year. They have 15 players on the squad that registered a sack, and the guy leading the team with them is Harper. They may not have great pass rushing, but they are effective in their blitz schemes
"I hate it! It looks like a stickup at 7-Eleven. Five guys standing there with their hands in the air."
Norm Sloan
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors."
Weldon Drew
That's not a "cool stat" if you're a Niners fan
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It is if Alex recognizes it and hits the hot route for some YAC
"I hate it! It looks like a stickup at 7-Eleven. Five guys standing there with their hands in the air."
Norm Sloan
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors."
Weldon Drew
I was watching the replay of the preseason game..
And it was weird because when they put 8-9 in the box, their corners were playing 10 yards off… That’s a hot route and to the house when you only have one guy to beat if you are Ted Ginn or Kyle Williams. I really, really hope they have those same lapses in defensive calls in this game. I really hope Harbaugh is counting on them bringing the house like they tried in the first one. They’ll get torched and be forced to back the hell off.
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I really, really hope they have those same lapses in defensive calls in this game
Even then, Smith has shown he has trouble with it. And ideally we wouldn’t have to count on defensive lapses to be confident we can move the ball.
Not so much a lapse as it was a scheme flaw.
But keep it up with your negativity. you’re on a roll.
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they're tied for 30th in sacks
so I would say they’re not effective at all in their blitz schemes
Draft: 1. Kendall Wright 2. Trumaine Johnson
FA: Smith, Morgan, Brooks, Rogers, Snyder
by whistlingmountain on Jan 13, 2012 12:48 PM PST up reply actions
Man I can't wait for this game to get played
I’m tired of listening about how great this NO offense is while completely ignoring the fact that we have a tremendous defense and at the very least we have a competent offense. The thought that the Saints can put up more points than what they’ve averaged on the road this year is a stretch. I don’t see NO putting up more than 17-21 points. If you think our offense can’t put up at least 24 or more, go get your head examined
Call me old fashioned but I need to sleep with a girl at least three times before I even consider taking her out to dinner. @BangingHebrew
I just can't see NO's defense stopping our offense
49ers put up 20 points or more on the Steelers (#1), Eagles (#8), Seattle(#9) (first time around), Browns (#10), Dallas (#14), Cardinals (#18) (first time around) and Detroit (#23). All better defenses than the Saints (#24).
by reedkrase on Jan 13, 2012 9:50 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Saints players given baseball bats to symbolize their physical attitude....
they’ll have to bring into 49ers game.
Saints coming to Beat Us Up!
well that's cute
"Cruelty, It’s not giving another person what they want. That’s our mindset on defense, to go out and play with everything we have and not give the other team anything." -Patrick Willis
DON'T TAKE OFFENSE
it means we are “bringing the wood”, that’s all
by HollywoodSaint on Jan 13, 2012 10:52 AM PST up reply actions
Its's the same mantra they used during their SB run
I clearly remember Reggie Bush running onto the field with a gold painted bat that year. Problem is, they were a different team then and they are playing a totally different team that has “brought the wood” all year.
by Chaotic9erFan on Jan 13, 2012 10:57 AM PST up reply actions
Great Post!
This site…contributors and those chiming in on the blog…you all are awesome! I have enjoyed coming to this site daily (several times per day) during the entire season. THANK YOU!
…as far as I am concerned…tomorrow is THE NFC Championship Game…it is the Super Bowl…and Im with SF ALL THE WAY!!!
…never did like the Aints…to me they are knda like the cowboys…but not quite as bad..either way, they need to feel PAIN.
The RED and Gold are gonna come with one thing tomorrow….PRIDE!
Averages are typically a bad stat
On average, readers of this blog make $100K per year – or maybe $5K. How can that be? Because somebody who makes a B$ or a bunch living in Mom’s basement skew the result.
The Tampa Bay game skewed the Niners scoring. Later we learned that they were a terrible team & the rout didn’t mean much.
Brees was busy setting records, not sitting on the bench saving his body in the 4th qt.
That’s why the new world of situational stats is where the heart of understanding lies.
We, who suffered thru some offensively retarded games (see Redskins, Browns) know that the Niners were playing run the clock and keepaway because, barring turnovers the opponents didn’t have a snowball’s chance.
When the Niners were willing to take chances and go for it, the O looked, at times, less pedestrian.
I’m thinking that we’ll see some creativity and bluffing the pot on Saturday. If they try to play stoic, I’m not optimistic. I saw the old Niners breeze by good D teams in the hayday, & not even notice a field goal here & there. Let it hang out & use the speed of receivers show.
you know they beat NO the game AFTER they played SF, right?
They went into week 6 4-1 and then fell off a cliff.
That’s what I don’t like about the TB argument. Our coaches and offense found a way to pick them apart that became a blue print for every team after . . except for the saints. Don’t think that skews the averages as much as it shows how great the 49ers coaching staff is at prepping for teams.
Saints lost their coach early in the TB game
in a freak accident. And the 49ers haven’t scored anywhere near 48 since.
If you want to look at a meaningful game where the Saints lost, look at the Rams game. Brees kept getting sacked, which got into his head and he started throwing INTs.
Which people claim that their team can defeat our professional football squad?
by CoachOfEarl on Jan 13, 2012 10:03 AM PST up reply actions
Pressure and sacks will bring a happy day for niners fans. Good coverage is a must, also, but if there’s constant pressure on him, he’ll all but put the ball in your D’s hands (see TB game, STL game, last year ATL and Cleveland). He’s not good under all that pressure. He’s a great QB, but when faced with a deficit and pressure in his face, it’s pretty ugly.
"I don't suffer from drug addiction. I enjoy it very much."
by cajuncreation on Jan 13, 2012 10:17 AM PST up reply actions
Niners sent a couple of teams to the tanker after they beat em lions,eagles and giants
by Moflush on Jan 13, 2012 10:52 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
And the Colts game
Skewed the Saints ppg, unless it’s likely they’re going to drop 62 on a team week to week.
Teams always have outliers, both good and bad (see: Packers vs KC).
by Deelron on Jan 13, 2012 10:20 AM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
People could make the same argument about our game against the Bucs.
Although I would argue that the Bucs were a helluva lot better than the Colts were at any point in the year.
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to that point
take out the colts game Saints drop to 32.3
take out the TB game and 49ers drop to 22.1
seems like even taking out their highest scoring games it ends up pretty much the same.
by reedkrase on Jan 13, 2012 10:26 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
People don't look at the Texans and the Niners the same because
PPG is not very illuminating. Even with a 3rd stringer, the Texans still hold the “best” running game in the NFL. When they had Schaub, they had a borderline pro bowler throwing the ball to a target like Andre Johnson. The Niners have scored almost as many points, but people who have watched both teams recognize the difference. The Niners pride themselves on being a “power” run team, yet have an inconsistent O Line and struggle mightily in the run game at times and always on short yardage. Throw in the fact that Smith/Harbaugh doesn’t like to take chances, the offense has to execute extremely well on a lot of plays to put together a TD drive, even if they have decent field position.
What will be interesting if Harbaugh asks Smith to win the game for him. I wonder if he will ask more of him even if it is a one possession game. All makes for an interesting game.
Without one team giving it up on TO’s, I expect a close game.
Inconsistent O-line, eh?
Meet the Saints inconsistent D-line.
A lot of people started counting out Houston when they got down to their 3rd string QB. But they have Foster and Tate, which is probably the best 1-2 punch rush in the league. And they’re still going.
Which people claim that their team can defeat our professional football squad?
by CoachOfEarl on Jan 13, 2012 10:13 AM PST up reply actions
Their offense (beyond these un-illminating stats)
is why they are not considred to have a strong offense. I’m not commenting on the Niners chances of beating the Saints, so I don’t know why you mentioned the Saints D Line, or that the TExans are still alive in the playoffs.
Just that you mentioned the SF O-line
which matches up with the Saints D-line. And you mentioned the Texans running game, so I thought I’d add my opinion.
Which people claim that their team can defeat our professional football squad?
by CoachOfEarl on Jan 13, 2012 10:43 AM PST up reply actions
Defenses can help the offense
score points through TO’s, field position, etc. … and good FG kickers.
True
Special teams also contribute to field position. Besides that, the defense and special teams have directly accounted for 3 49er TDs this year, so score per game does not really measure the offense.
Now, is the winter of our discontent
Made glorious summer by this son of York
--Richard III, Act I, Scene 1
the survey above...
whoever voted ‘not at all – they will lose’ (7 votes)…you should be ashamed of yourself and priviledges on this site revoked
Saints fans…and a few select NN members.
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
Who's that trip-trapping on my bridge?
Or shall I say, “Who Dat…..?”
"I don't suffer from drug addiction. I enjoy it very much."
by cajuncreation on Jan 13, 2012 9:55 AM PST up reply actions
Yo troll dude
Prepare to meet some very sharp cloven hooves from our whole herd of Gruffs!
"One game at a time. Let's just keep it rolling." Justin Smith
At least 3 of them were NN members... and I think we all know who they were.
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I didn't vote
but those 7 Niner fans seem pretty reasonable to me. I’m sure they are still rooting for the Niners.
Niner's Defense has kept the offense conservative
The Niner’s mostly conservative offense typically get’s a 10 or so point lead through a decent offensive drive and usually a turn over. Then Harbaugh goes into conservative protect the lead mode. With the Niner’s superior Defense, it’s a logical strategy…if not very entertaining and awe inspiring from a fan’s standpoint. It’s gotten the Niner’s in trouble a few times but it’s mostly worked this season. But consequently, the Niner’s offense doesn’t need to score many points so it doesn’t.
here here
This is so true of the many games I’ve watched this season. The pace of the game slows mightily when the niner defense is playing well. Even in the loss to ARI, the defense really had the clamps down.
This offense is a big part of the defense. They’re a clock chewing, beat-em-up, type offense. How many WR corps pride themselves on their blocking?!?!?
The niners are designed to wear teams down and win late. It’ll be no different this week, coming off a bye and playing at home. New Orleans won’t know what hit them.
OK
All trolling aside, I have to call BS on this post.
If the Niners do win on Saturday, it’s because their defense shut the Saints down. That is definitely a possibility.
But if you think Alex Smith will win a shootout with Brees, you are living in some kind of fantasyland.
It simply won’t happen. Drew is playing on some sort of god-like higher level where it’s almost comical to watch. When the offense is clicking, it’s like watching the Harlem Globetrotters play that other team that always loses. It’s really kinda a strange thing to watch.
There’s only one QB who is going to even be a fair matchup with Brees this year and he plays for Green Bay.
How can you call BS on something you clearly did read very well?
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
He didn't read it very well, considering it says that he's not arguing the Niners' offense
is as good as the Saints’ right there in the 3rd paragraph.
I didn’t have time to read the whole article. Lot of trolling to do before lunchtime
by HollywoodSaint on Jan 13, 2012 11:26 AM PST up reply actions
I'll give it to you
you are consistent in your trolling.
"Cruelty, It’s not giving another person what they want. That’s our mindset on defense, to go out and play with everything we have and not give the other team anything." -Patrick Willis
Drew's "God like" level is closer to "very good" when outside the super dome.
Draft: 1. Kendall Wright 2. Trumaine Johnson
FA: Smith, Morgan, Brooks, Rogers, Snyder
by whistlingmountain on Jan 13, 2012 9:54 AM PST up reply actions
Bro , this isn't Qb against Qb ...
… this is TEAM against TEAM and if you would open your back woods country eye’s , you would see that the Niners have a better TEAM …!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!
Nice ...!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!
did you read it?
he said the BS part was the Niners beating the Saints in a shootout, i.e., Smith playing on par with Brees. Not that the Saints couldn’t lose or won’t get shut down on offense
Smith threw for more yards than Brees last year.
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no he didn't...
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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Smith threw for 275, Brees for 254
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And he threw the ball 6 less times
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/boxscore?gid=20100920025
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I think he meant in the head to head match up
http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2010092000/2010/REG2/saints@49ers#menu=gameinfo&tab=recap
Alex threw for 275 yards, Brees for 254
thought he meant total for the year
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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which was close
they were only 2,250 yards apart . . .
thats why I was like say what...
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
Follow @manraj76
Beating the Saints in a shootout is not the same as Alex Smith playing on par with Brees.
It depends on your definition of shootout. I think the Niners are very capable of winning a game played to 30+ points against the Saints D, Alex or no. If it’s a QB duel, I don’t think there’s a team in the nation that can claim a likely victory over the Saints, except Green Bay. But the Niners don’t play that kind of game.
Alex Smith winning a shootout with Brees?
Are they doing pistols at dawn?
This is a team game bro. Plus, that’s not the point of this article. It’s to say that the 49ers offense is not as anemic as everyone clammors it to be. Smiley clearly stated that it’s not as good as the Saints offense.
You seem to have a strange misconception that a football game is QB vs QB, not team vs team.
Saints fans have developed a sort of Serena Williams mentality for this game. If they score 17 points in the game, they will say the Saints beat themselves and that the 49ers are nothing special.
They basically think the Saints should put up 35-42 points every week regardless of opponent or location of game. Thus, if the 49ers aren’t scoring that much, they will lose if the Saints play their way.
I don’t understand it, their last road game on grass they put up 22 or 23.
Draft: 1. Kendall Wright 2. Trumaine Johnson
FA: Smith, Morgan, Brooks, Rogers, Snyder
by whistlingmountain on Jan 13, 2012 10:03 AM PST up reply actions
Honestly... why worry what they think or say
Harbaugh says our guys are focused, loose, and ready. I’ll go with that one until they prove differently!
problem with the shootout argument
is that it ignores 67% of the game….ST and Defense.
In a shootout with alex smith, drew brees needs to know that smith has a bullet proof vest, and it’s called the niner defense.
There is no way drew brees can hang with alex smith in a shootout.
Smith should have at least comparable stats to Brees
he’s facing the Saints D and Brees is facing the Niner D.
and ST makes life easier
by making every one of our yards count for a little more…
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
Follow @manraj76
The problem with this argument...
…is that if we’re in a shootout, then our defense will necessarily have failed.
that is a possibility
as fans, we have to be prepared for the fact that that may happen, and that our hopes will rest on the offense late in the game.
Then you haven’t watched our defense much this year. Believe it or not, they are going to be very _very_motivated.
"One game at a time. Let's just keep it rolling." Justin Smith
lol I thought you said all trolling aside?
"Cruelty, It’s not giving another person what they want. That’s our mindset on defense, to go out and play with everything we have and not give the other team anything." -Patrick Willis
by 49erLou on Jan 13, 2012 10:48 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Both defenses looking to put a HURT on starting Q.B.
Hopefully our O-Line simply not gonna allow that.
Saints players were handed Baseball Bats to symbolize they are coming into this game to put the Big Hurt on 9ers.
Don't think we'll see a lot of hurt on Brees, they'll go max protect
it will be the defensive line’s job to simply pressure the ball out of his hands. Too much is being made out of sacking him. They’ll be more than happy to keep 6 in to block the 49ers 4. At which point it’s 7 defenders vs 4 targets.
Draft: 1. Kendall Wright 2. Trumaine Johnson
FA: Smith, Morgan, Brooks, Rogers, Snyder
by whistlingmountain on Jan 13, 2012 9:57 AM PST up reply actions
I don't think it's a myth, the 49ers offense is not good compared to traditional playoff offenses
let alone the new wave of pass happy offenses
That being said, it still all comes down to 3rd downs for the 49ers. The 49ers will probably have 15 or 16 3rd downs, mostly in the 3-6 yard range. They have to convert more than the 3 or 4 they’ve been getting the past few games.
Draft: 1. Kendall Wright 2. Trumaine Johnson
FA: Smith, Morgan, Brooks, Rogers, Snyder
by whistlingmountain on Jan 13, 2012 9:56 AM PST reply actions
( and yes they are capable of doing it )
Draft: 1. Kendall Wright 2. Trumaine Johnson
FA: Smith, Morgan, Brooks, Rogers, Snyder
by whistlingmountain on Jan 13, 2012 9:57 AM PST up reply actions
Yea
I think the main point is seeing the 49ers offense is quite average, not at all near the bottom of the league like people often claim.
This ‘averageness’ can easily be improved by being more effective in certain situations they’ve struggled in, mainly 3rd downs and the red zone. Both of which have seen some improvement recently.
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
by Virginia9er on Jan 13, 2012 10:02 AM PST up reply actions
Average in general ( though pretty bad on 3rd down, one of the worst in the league )
Bad offenses basically don’t make the playoffs, let alone beat the Saints. I mean, the Rams were a bad offense this year. And we all know an offense as bad as the Rams couldn’t beat the Saints. That would be ridiculous, they’d lose by 30.
Draft: 1. Kendall Wright 2. Trumaine Johnson
FA: Smith, Morgan, Brooks, Rogers, Snyder
by whistlingmountain on Jan 13, 2012 10:05 AM PST up reply actions
The 49ers have gotten a lot of their 1st downs
On 1st and 2nd downs… so the 3rd down stuff can be deceiving as well.
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This might not be accurate but
I think the problem is they are so bad when they get off schedule. It sometimes feels like one sack or one penalty ruins an entire series.
Obviously all offenses want to have 3rd and shorts, but it seems like the 9ers success on 3rd down is even more tied to 1st and 2nd down production than anyone else in the league.
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
by Virginia9er on Jan 13, 2012 10:10 AM PST up reply actions
I agree that one bad play ruins a lot of drives
but they’ve shown stats, the 49ers are pretty bad on 3rd down for all distances.
they are particularly reserved when inside of field goal range, in general. Something I hope they can avoid tomorrow.
Draft: 1. Kendall Wright 2. Trumaine Johnson
FA: Smith, Morgan, Brooks, Rogers, Snyder
by whistlingmountain on Jan 13, 2012 10:17 AM PST up reply actions
I feel like that they pass a lot on 1st down and get a lot of 1st downs because of that.
I’d like to see a 1st and 2nd down production stat somewhere to compare with other teams.
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Stop your damn negativity already. We don’t need your bad energy right before the game…
Just go away for a few days.
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by clarifying
a false statement? What is negative about that?…confronting debatable notions?…Even if I were being negative, why do you fell the need to break CG because of it?
If you were balanced... I would accept that.
But you NEVER have a single good thing to say… You are a frikin’ troll.
So by you defending your typical BS with this, it’s just not gonna fly.
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its all good Drew
we have plenty of positive energy to root for the 49ERS!
Coach Harbaugh is the truth!!
No...
Just go..away… because you are the single most negative person on the planet… and it’s annoying as all get up.
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I don't even want to have to read his crap to be honest.
I guess I will just come back after the game when we win… I really don’t want to read his BS for the next 24 hours. I don’t think I stand alone on that either.
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that's quite the honor
single most negative person on the planet
Yeah... if you're working for Satan
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I'm asking how is that deceiving
or how does the Niners “getting 1st downs on 1st and 2nd down” alter 3rd down conversions, if that is what you meant.
Quick Question
do these high offensive teams have more drives than the 49ers?
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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Nope
http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats
Which people claim that their team can defeat our professional football squad?
by CoachOfEarl on Jan 13, 2012 10:15 AM PST up reply actions
interesting
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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It's a mixed bags, some 49er games have almost no posessions
some have a ton from all the 3 and outs both ways.
The Giants had very few possessions in their game vs the 49ers.
Draft: 1. Kendall Wright 2. Trumaine Johnson
FA: Smith, Morgan, Brooks, Rogers, Snyder
by whistlingmountain on Jan 13, 2012 10:18 AM PST up reply actions
Game is determined in the Trenches, our O-Line and Our D....
Our Big Guys MUST beat their Big Guys.
It All Starts and Ends there.
Game is determined by the final score
Ted G’s TD returns count just as much as Frank’s.
By The Numbers
People often cherry pick statistics in order to make an argument, and this weeks been a great example of that. I’ve heard so many breakdowns of the Saints offensive statistics compared to the Niners defensive & offensive stats. Its somewhat puzzling how the Saints defense has been virtually ignored this week by the national media, but as you point out all this talk about our weak offense is a bit of a mirage. The 49ers don’t play an uptempo game not necessarily bc we can’t, but that our def doesn’t make it necessary to do so. However when push comes to shove we’ve done it successfully and against MUCH BETTER defenses than what will face Saturday.
I don't even want a close game.
I want total domination… I want us to beat them physically and mentally and send them back to N.O. completely embarrassed…
I want that every single one of their players feels like they need ice tubs by halftime… I hope that their old bodies just break from the youth and physicality of this Niners team.
On every hit… I hope the Niners talk so much trash that the Saints wished they never came to play in Candlestick.
Send them home with their tails between their legs!
GO NINERS!! Cannot wait till tomorrow!!!!!
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I want one of those boring niners blow out they had a couple of times this year were is in the 3rd qt like 6min to go where we all now is a wrap
by Moflush on Jan 13, 2012 11:06 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Speaking of stats
Here’s link to DB yards, etc.
http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/01/12/cornerbacks-a-glance-at-the-2011-numbers/
????
Why does Time Tebow get the primetime spot on Saturday and we have to play early???? DISLIKE
by HollywoodSaint on Jan 13, 2012 10:24 AM PST reply actions
The league was afraid the 49ers power grid would blow just like it did on Monday Night Football!
So far, 2011 has been Harbaugh-some!
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a media wet dream even
extrabaggs
"Just your typical Giants scoring rally: A faceburger on the basepaths, two errors from the second baseman and a bases-loaded balk."
by Badly Browned on Jan 13, 2012 11:27 AM PST via Android app up reply actions
The Steelers-Broncos game was one of the most watched WC matchups in like 25 years. Even if you hate Tebow, people are clearly interested.
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
by Virginia9er on Jan 13, 2012 10:57 AM PST up reply actions
Your offense can only gain the yards between you and the goal line.
This article (and points per yard) reminds me of an article I read back in October re: the 49ers “scoreability” (points per yard) and “bendability” (also points per yard but this one is points allowed per yard by the defense). The Niners were 1st in both categories at the time the article was written. Check it out here:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/kerry_byrne/10/26/49ers.coaching/index.html
So far, 2011 has been Harbaugh-some!
Follow @grantmp1
Brilliant!
Best damn article I’ve read all year concerning the Niner’s offense! Great work!!!
I knew this article would bring out all the negative nancy's.
We need some good mojo type articles Fooch before tomorrow. And for the rest of the day leading up to 1pm PST tomorrow.
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Dunno...
Something… something besides all the troll work some folks are putting in.
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that article about Akers was a good one
how awesome would it be if Smith drove us down for the game winning TD, or puts Akers in position to kick the game winner and he makes it?
Coach Harbaugh is the truth!!
What type of offense would you rather face in the playoffs
a team averaging 3 TD’s and a FG or a team averaging 1 TD and 5 FG’s?
24 pts per game vs. 22 pts per game
always go with the lower number
This takes a lot out of it too
If that O that make 24 per game also tends to have 3.5 turnovers while the 22 pter tends to have .5 turnovers… I think a 3 turnover differential is well worth the additional 2 points/game.
This is a team game and it does not matter any more which team we WANT to face. We earned a home playoff game against the Saints and now our job is to win it and have another game!
If you need some positivity
The babbling tub of whale lard that is Peter King has picked the Saints to win on Saturday. He is basically wrong about everything when it comes to predicting the outcome of a football game. He picked the falcons for a lock in the Super Bowl. I am getting nervous
by HollywoodSaint on Jan 13, 2012 10:56 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
I would be willing to bet if you did a valid study for just playoff picks specifically, just about every single ‘expert’ would hover around .500
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
by Virginia9er on Jan 13, 2012 11:05 AM PST up reply actions
That's kind of strange to me.
King’s been all about the Niners for the latter half of the season, consistently putting them ahead of the Saints. I’m surprised he thinks the Niners can’t win the home game against them.
Other factors on offense and new playbook
The article actually doesn’t take into account how much both defense (thru T.O.) and special teams (thru yards returned) have contributed to the total offense, I would llike to see a comparison there. Also, let’s not forget that the stat averages count for all 16 games of the regular season, while it should be remembered that the 49ers new playbook was being learned and still is by all players throughout the whole season (Vernon Davis confirmed it this week). And, who knows, there could still be many “new” and effective offensive plays which we haven’t yet been shown by Roman!
More statistics
I don’t know if it exists, but the following stat would better rate the strength of an offense:
The average number of points a team is able to score when the average starting drive is between:
- 100-90 yards = XX points
- 90-80 yards = YY points
- etc.
This would precisely compare “apples with apples”, wouldn’t it?
by 49erfromItaly on Jan 13, 2012 11:19 AM PST up reply actions
Nothing is ever apples to apples in football
The sample size is too small and the game changing plays are too few to measure effectively. The bottom line is that that Saints and Niners have not played this year. They don’t play the same teams. They don’t have the same injuries. They don’t play on the same fields…. and on and on and on. Momentum and attitude affect football more than any other sport. Single spectacular plays have such a huge swing effect (it is not like every TD is worth 2 points and every punt you force is worth 1 point).
Wrong
Call me old fashioned but I need to sleep with a girl at least three times before I even consider taking her out to dinner. @BangingHebrew
by BangingHebrew on Jan 13, 2012 11:03 AM PST up reply actions
As early as yesterday LaCanfora (an insider) was reporting he was leaning toward the Dolphins.
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You may have heard it was between Rams and Dolphins
But I highly doubt it’d be breaking new on sports center right now if it happened days ago.
Call me old fashioned but I need to sleep with a girl at least three times before I even consider taking her out to dinner. @BangingHebrew
by BangingHebrew on Jan 13, 2012 11:08 AM PST up reply actions
Nobody said anything till just right now.
He’s making stuff up or totally misinterpreted something someone on ESPN said.
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I may have misheard it on ESPN
but doubt it. I thin there were sources, if not corrobarated, that Fisher was ALL Rams. The report could have been wrong too.
Jason LaCanfora gets ALL news before anybody.
He was saying Dolphins yesterday…
I don’t care what you think you may have heard. It was wrong… and so was your “know-it-all-response”.
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Drop dead serious.
If you can’t see that, I don’t know what to tell ya
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reports
There were reports a few days ago that the Rams were heavily favored. The Dolphins then emerged and it is possible he missed it. People make mistakes in what they hear sometimes.
by David Fucillo on Jan 13, 2012 11:15 AM PST up reply actions
Knowing the history.. he was trying to be a "know it all".
Anyone who has been following knew the story with it. At least if they were listening.
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The Dolphins emerged as the favorite?
We should all know that doesn’t mean a thing ;)
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
by Virginia9er on Jan 13, 2012 11:17 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Was that a reprimand or a compliment?
I love the tie back to Harbaugh. I rec’d it.
They were gonna get their guy this time.
What is it that is not appealing about that franchise? I would take that job in heartbeat. South Beach? Good defense? Pfffft… Rams in St. Louis?
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He probably thinks
he has a better chance at winning the division every year in the weak NFC West than having to beat the Pats, Jets and Bills every year
of course...
The NFC West is showing much improvement, so not sure how much that will matter.
by David Fucillo on Jan 13, 2012 11:24 AM PST up reply actions
The Rams have their QB too
the Dolphins don’t.
And the Pats alone make it less desirable than the nFC WEst. The WEst will be up for grabs for years to come
So he couldn't have brought a QB on?
Draft Griffin…or bring Orton… maybe make a push for Manning?
That’s a fixable type of deal… and they were going to give him full management control. If he was worried about a QB, then he could have gotten one.
Rams have Bradford who is still a 50/50 unknown at this point.
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I still think Henne can be a Roethlisberger type.
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I don't think Henne is all bad either
but I don’t see how he compares in substance or in style to BR.
Big guy, slides well in the pocket, keeps plays alive, cannon arm… there are lots of similarities…
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Well most don't think it takes
6 years to realize a QBs potential, and last year it WAS clear to them that Bradford is the franchise. The Rams sustained ascendence seems more likely than the Dolphins at this point. Players and Division factors.
Only way to go is up for the Rams.
That could have played a factor as well. Job security even if he wins a couple games.
But you could not be more off in your assessment about the division.
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People see Alex Smith and the Niners
at the top of the NFC WEst and they see Brady at the top of AFC East and, like an instinct, they want to compete in the NFC West.
Yeah...
‘cause we all know Brady hasn’t lost the last 3 playoff games. Patriots are on the decline.
And he has no idea what our plans are for QB next year. For all he knows, Peyton Manning comes to the NFCW next year. It’s an unpredictable decision.
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Did you just say Orton
Instantly, your credibility is shot – unless that was sarcasm.
FYI...
Patriots had a worse record than the 49ers.
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nobody fears the niners
more than the Pats. There are good reasons for this. Teams don’t point to records and say that team is better. Had the Eagles gotten in, they’d be one of the most dangerous teams, more than the Niners, because of their personnel. Their ability to score and play D.
LMAO!
Of course!!! Nobody respects the Niners!!
The Patriots defense sucks… Brady is at the end of his career.
You are living in a land of delusion.
Nobody fears the Niners? Jesus Christ.
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He's got another thing comin' then.
He’s basically going against the NFC’s version of the Ravens twice a year… and the Seahawks and Cardinals defense is doing quite well…
NFCW is on the rise. NFCS is a mystery. NFCE is sliding. And NFCN will be the toughest still.
Bills are pretty crappy about midseason every year, Jets were pretty bad this year, Dolphins have a great defense, and the Pats are the Pats…
Seems if nothing else pretty even.
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Interesting...
…I would think the Rams are more appealing in that you’ve got a young QB, a good RB, and a high draft pick this year.
that's it too
Not having to go through Brady to win a division is appealing also. The NFC West has a bunch of middle of the road to mediocre teams.
Correction:
An unknown QB, an old RB, a young defense, a not-so-durable offensive line, etc…
There’s lots of pros and cons to both teams. I just think that the Dolphins have a lot more upside on defense and their offense has some pretty big weapons if they can get a QB.
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Plus nicer scenery in regards to a living situation.
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Dolphins definitely have a better defense...
…and living situation. No argument there. You are also absolutely correct that Bradford is still an unknown. People greatly overrated his rookie campaign.
first impressions are huge
someone the other day argued that Mark Sanchez was a top tier quarterback. The argument was “look what he did as a rookie”
They were going to give him a 7 million dollar deal.
To me, $7MM, South Beach, a young and talented defense, a good Oline, a premier RB and WR, and a QB away seems pretty appealing… but that’s just me I guess.
Brady is on the decline, Sanchez is one of the worst QB’s in the NFL, and the Bills start fast and finish slow.
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You make a strong case
However, while Brady’s on the decline, I have confidence in Belichick to find a replacement. I also think the Jets are going to dump Sanchez and make a strong push for PManning. Their defense is the equal of our own (at least, according to the stats) so even a marginal improvement on offense could make them very dangerous.
Plus, there’s something about Stephen Ross I just don’t trust. Something about the way he left Sparano twisting while he very publicly pursued Harbaugh. It wouldn’t give me confidence if I were Fisher.
I think it all came down to the connections
LaCanfora was saying for weeks that Jeff Fisher had deep connections with the FO of the Rams. He probably got some nice incentives rolled into that contract due to this.
by Chaotic9erFan on Jan 13, 2012 12:19 PM PST up reply actions
all I heard was that
The Rams and Dolphine were in the running. Fwiw, my brother heard a report on ESPN yesterday saying he chose the Dolphins.
"Cruelty, It’s not giving another person what they want. That’s our mindset on defense, to go out and play with everything we have and not give the other team anything." -Patrick Willis
Rams
At one point it was reported the Rams were favored, but it has gone back and forth. You might have heard that but not follow-ups where the Dolphins emerged a bit more.
by David Fucillo on Jan 13, 2012 11:14 AM PST up reply actions
Rams
One issue he had with the Rams was a money issue. There was talk that he was concerned about them potentially moving to LA and I think he wanted some kind of cost of living adjustment to his salary. I don’t recall the exact details.
by David Fucillo on Jan 13, 2012 11:16 AM PST up reply actions
has to be control
I can’t,think that the salaries are that far apart. The new,owner of the Rams has deep pockets too
Both were going to give him control.
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That's a lot of HC talent in the NFC West
Even though I hate P.C. he’s pretty decent
Call me old fashioned but I need to sleep with a girl at least three times before I even consider taking her out to dinner. @BangingHebrew
by BangingHebrew on Jan 13, 2012 11:03 AM PST up reply actions
why?
because there will be two classy guys (Whisenhunt, Fisher) in the NFC West now to offset the other two classless egomaniacs (Carrol, Harbaugh)?
Exactly I want Nolan back.
Did you see those suits??? Pure class, winning and having a good team is vastly over rated.
Call me old fashioned but I need to sleep with a girl at least three times before I even consider taking her out to dinner. @BangingHebrew
by BangingHebrew on Jan 13, 2012 11:13 AM PST up reply actions
Yep
I’d much rather keep losing so we can pile up top 10 draft picks, rather than go to the playoffs and win superbowls with cocky coaches.
Call me old fashioned but I need to sleep with a girl at least three times before I even consider taking her out to dinner. @BangingHebrew
by BangingHebrew on Jan 13, 2012 11:22 AM PST up reply actions
Wow...just wow
So, let me get this straight. You don’t like the coaches. You don’t like the QB. You don’t like the WR. You think the RB are okay. You don’t like the Online. You have a little bit of like for the TE. The front 7 are good to you, but you hate the secondary. You think the FO sucks.
So, why exactly are you on a site that is clearly for fans of this team? Skepticism is one thing but when you constantly berrate the team as a whole like you do, it makes it hard to understand how you can be a fan of it.
by Chaotic9erFan on Jan 13, 2012 11:58 AM PST up reply actions 9 recs
He really really really
doesn’t like Alex Smith and until he’s gone sc thinks we suck suck suck.
"One game at a time. Let's just keep it rolling." Justin Smith
Seriously
How can one be so bitter towards the first playoff apperance in a decade? If you enjoy losing that much the Browns sure could use some fans.
Call me old fashioned but I need to sleep with a girl at least three times before I even consider taking her out to dinner. @BangingHebrew
by BangingHebrew on Jan 13, 2012 3:09 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
I like the Harbaugh hire
and though I have issues with his game management, his O-coordinators play calling, and his BS antics and megalomania, obviously I think it was a good hire. I thought that then, and still do now.
I never said the FO sucks.
Fixed...
… and though I have issues withhis gamemanagement,his O-coordinators play calling,andhisBS antics and megalomania, obviouslyI think it was a good hire. I thought that then,and still do now…!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!
by Edggy on Jan 13, 2012 7:38 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Really liked this piece
Thanks Smileyman. Well-thought out and gave a nice counter to the constant blab about NO’s unstoppable offense vs our offensive collection of talentless slugs.
For those SF Giants fans on here, I really think the 49ers could use that model in the playoffs.
2010 SF Giants won it all with great defense (starting pitching and shut-down bull-pen) with timely and just enough offense (Cody Ross/Buster Posey/Aubrey Huff/Freddy Sanchez).
2011-12 49ers can win it all with great defense/special teams and Frank Gore/Alex Smith led just-enough offense.
Jim Harbaugh doesn't just WANT winners, he MAKES them!
The question is
Who is our Cody Ross? The come-from-nowhere star who takes over games and propels us to the big dance?
Jim Harbaugh doesn't just WANT winners, he MAKES them!
I just think the bigger problem in general with the offense is the field goals vs. TDs
If we can actually convert our redzone FGs to TDs, then I’d actually give us the advantage to win this game. But getting into the redzone and kicking FGs isn’t going to beat the Saints no matter how well our defense plays.
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Jan 13, 2012 11:22 AM PST reply actions
red zone
They do need to convert, but they’ve had some success the last few weeks.
by David Fucillo on Jan 13, 2012 11:23 AM PST up reply actions
4 FG's, 1 ST touchdown, and 1 defensive TD could still win it too.
Not the ideal way to win, but there’s all kinds of possibles.
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But I think our offense can get the job done.
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they haven't to this point though
against some suspect competition. It’s definitely key though, I just don’t see evidence to be confident of it occuring.
offense, not team
I’m well aware of the record. I think the Niners are capable of making lots of plays against the Saints. Whether they will have the chance AND actually do it is another story. My hunch is that we will ask more of Alex Smith than in any other game this year.
He basically beat them last year if it weren't for the idiot coaching and leaving all that time on the clock.
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I know that’s definitely possible, but again, as I’ve been on this whole season, I’d much rather like to be confident that the offence could score TDs, you know, something the offense is SUPPOSED to do, rather than having to rely on less-common things to occur to do it
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Jan 13, 2012 11:36 AM PST up reply actions
I'm confident in our offense.
Especially when the pressure is all on the defense.
Niners offense is going up against a average defense (if that).
It’s basically an elite defense vs and elite offense and an slightly above average offense against a slightly above average defense.
I like our offense vs their defense. I like our special teams vs their special teams. And I am uncertain about our defense vs their offense… but I think if they get +1 or +2 in turnovers for this game, I really like our chances at the ’Stick.
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Well obviously if the defense shuts them out. I meant realistically
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Jan 13, 2012 11:35 AM PST up reply actions
So you are thinking that is impossible?
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That works for me
If we nearly shut them out we win.
"One game at a time. Let's just keep it rolling." Justin Smith
Agreed
Does anyone know what NO redzone D is like? Far too lazy to look it up myself. That’s gonna be the key to the game though
Call me old fashioned but I need to sleep with a girl at least three times before I even consider taking her out to dinner. @BangingHebrew
by BangingHebrew on Jan 13, 2012 11:24 AM PST up reply actions
There was a post over at CSC earlier in the week someone breaking down 3rd down % and red zone %.
Redzone Defense:
Saints: 62.79% (31st in league)
49ers: 41.18% (fourth in league)
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
by Virginia9er on Jan 13, 2012 11:27 AM PST up reply actions
Nice
Well hopefully all that practice time the offense put in against our D pays off tomorrow.
Call me old fashioned but I need to sleep with a girl at least three times before I even consider taking her out to dinner. @BangingHebrew
by BangingHebrew on Jan 13, 2012 11:30 AM PST up reply actions
Of course it is worth noting the offensive ranks are almost exactly opposite…Again pointing to why this game is so interesting. Two completely contrasting styles.
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
by Virginia9er on Jan 13, 2012 11:31 AM PST up reply actions
It's going to be interesting for sure
I think our defense and their offense basically come out to a wash. Our D will give up more points than normal, their O will score less than normal. I like our chances because I think our offense is better than their defense.
Call me old fashioned but I need to sleep with a girl at least three times before I even consider taking her out to dinner. @BangingHebrew
by BangingHebrew on Jan 13, 2012 11:40 AM PST up reply actions
Those numbers make sense
We’re about as good on defense in the red zone as we are the rest of the field, and they’re about as bad on defense as they are on the rest of the field. The “X” factor is our offense, which has been much poorer in the red zone than on the rest of the field, suggesting we’ve had some really bad luck.
It wouldn’t shock me if we have some success in the red zone going forward.
It's wierd
Alex used to be pretty good in the redzone
Play calling?
I wonder how much of it was due to JH just putting it on the defenses shoulders. Can’t bash it cause it worked but it could be our downfall tomorrow but I think we’ll be able to cash in.
Call me old fashioned but I need to sleep with a girl at least three times before I even consider taking her out to dinner. @BangingHebrew
by BangingHebrew on Jan 13, 2012 12:00 PM PST up reply actions
You think the red-zone play calling has gotten worse...
…and/or more conservative under Harbaugh? I suppose there are some times on 4th down when Harbs has settled for the FG when I suspect Sing might have gone for it. But I also think there’s been some bad luck in that regard.
Not saying it got worse
Just saying maybe Harbs didn’t feel it was that necessary to be aggresive in the redzone due to how well the team was playing. I have no problem with it cause it worked, that’s all that matters.
Call me old fashioned but I need to sleep with a girl at least three times before I even consider taking her out to dinner. @BangingHebrew
by BangingHebrew on Jan 13, 2012 3:11 PM PST up reply actions
so
you take 1/4th of your sample (redzone), and it turns out that that the performance is not consistent year to year…
what does this suggest?
[Poorly Wrought THING] is what Brian Sabean would have made if he were a [THING-maker] instead of a MLB GM
Field Goals
My friends and I have taken to referring to the red zone as “Green Akers,” lol.
by Bigmouth on Jan 13, 2012 11:25 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed
Not really a problem moving the ball between the 20’s
Interesting quote from Vernon
"We were just getting adjusted, getting familiar with the offense," tight end Vernon Davis said. "We didn’t really know much, especially me. I was learning how to read the offense. Before [Harbaugh], I just had to know if the middle of the field was open or not. Now, I had to read everything.
Explains the quote from Roman about Vernon only getting comfortable for the last five weeks or so..
Vernon also said at the beginning of the season there was so much stuff being thrown at him it almost made him want to quit. I don’t quite think he meant literally stop playing football, but I found it interesting nonetheless.
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
by Virginia9er on Jan 13, 2012 11:45 AM PST up reply actions
We have...
a great defense and ST’s and coaching staff and a good running game and a mediocre QB who doesn’t turn the ball over and makes a couple good plays a game. It should be a close game. Turnovers will be key.
So much talk
About the Saints road “woes” not enough about the Niners being 7-1 at home???
or only allowing 10.9 in those games.
30 total points in the past 4 games at home, etc…
That’s all right by me… they’ll find out in about 24 hours.
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why is everyone talking about these high powered offense'es?
ins’t it “defense wins championship”? thats true in all, if not most teams sports.
Coach Harbaugh is the truth!!
Not in baseball
not really in basketball or football either. “Defense wins championships” is a cliche created by mediocre players/teams that were inept at putting points on the board…
rams won a Siperbowl with no defensei
It would be interesting to see Superbowl winners and where their offenses and defenses ranked
There's already a post like that in the Fanpost section
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Courtesy of footballoutsiders:
In playoff games between top 8 offenses and top 8 defenses since 1993, the top offenses have the better record at 45-40. That’s basically even. Thus proving that, in fact, offenses and defenses win games. Which kinda makes sense!
In baseball, the phrase is "great pitching beats great hitting"
and it’s completely true, with the one exception being when great pitching’s team has NO hitting at all (2011 Giants)
Brees will probably throw for like 300 yards
…in all likelihood, BUT only because we stuffed their ground game; that’s fine by me…since their average starting position should be somewhere around their own 13 or so; As far as I’m concerned, they can rack up as many yards through the air as they want…still won’t score; Roethlisberger sure didn’t…
by Doni S on Jan 13, 2012 1:49 PM PST via mobile reply actions
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