49ers Vs. Giants: Taking a Look at the Red Zone Stats

by Tre9er on Jan 19, 2012 4:29 PM PST in 2012 NFL Playoffs

Dayum that ice cube is cold! Why you slip that down my pants, Anthony?!? (Or is that Chilo?)

Mike Sando had a post earlier today on the 49ers improvement in the red zone over the past few games (he broke it down by last four, and last nine as well). After watching Saturday's last-minute heroics, which were obviously red-zone scoring plays for touchdowns, it's easy to see why we want to revisit the once-poor red zone efficiency numbers.

Sando pointed out that over the last four games, the 49ers are 8-13 scoring TD's inside the opponent's 20-yard line, good for a 61.5% efficiency stat. Meanwhile the Giants are only 8-17 for a measly 47.1% touchdowns in the "zone".

Looking at the last nine games of the season (the "second-half", if you will) we see that a shift in play-calls occurred. The 49ers began calling more passing plays in the red zone, opposite of the approach employed earlier in the season.

Part of this could be due to Frank Gore and all of his "nicks". Or perhaps it's due to the offense evolving and learning what it really does best in specific situations. Maybe the players have had time to get chemistry and thus passes are becoming more effective when they count.

An aspect not mentioned by Sando regarding Saturday's two late touchdowns is this: QB Coach Geep Chryst called all of the plays on the final two drives...drives that resulted in touchdowns when the team needed quick scores.

Those two drives inflate the percentage a bit: if you take them away you're left with 6-11 and a 54.5% efficiency rating in the red zone. Still, two-minute drives are part of the game and most teams have multiple opportunities to score in these situations.

It's also been mentioned that the 49ers realize they can't settle for FG's in the post-season, especially if they're watching their opponent move the ball all over the field (worse: on big plays, ugh...).

One last thought I have is this: If Greg Roman ever does take a job as a head coach in the NFL, my bet is that Chryst would succeed him as the OC. I've felt that way ever since Roman's name came up for both NFL and college jobs. At this point, based on this small sample size and even though I wouldn't want to lose coach "G-Ro"...I don't think that'd be a very big drop-off.

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Interesting...

I just learned today about Chryst calling those late drives. It’s hard to deny that we were in in a bona-fide rut for a big stretch of the game last week, culminating in that awful Gore pass. It’s promising that Roman turned over the reins but it’s also hard to feel as if he didn’t have to considering we had so little time left to get going. I’m just hoping for a succesful running game on Saturday. It may be tough sledding but we need to dominate the TOP and get Frank and Co pounding from the start…

"We want to win with numbing repetition." -- Jim Harbaugh

by four-nine heavy on Jan 19, 2012 4:36 PM PST reply actions

Like the gore pass

I had nothing against that play call, it was just poorly executed. now if they had only gone over that play a couple times in practice thats one thing but we will never know

Follow @HamRowan

by AHR on Jan 19, 2012 4:54 PM PST up reply actions

Chryst and the 2 minute

2 minute drill requires special attention, a whole different evaluation of the opposing team and in effect is creating an entirely different gameplan.

Learning that Chryst was in charge of the 2 min drill was great news to me, means the 49ers offense committee was willing to delegate and each coach was focusing on a very specific part of the offense to get the best game plan possible.

by reedkrase on Jan 19, 2012 6:37 PM PST up reply actions

I'm confused...

Because I thought I read an interview with Harbaugh where he said that Geep drew up those plays, and that Roman called them. Are we saying that in this instance, Geep had the headphones on and he told Alex what the play was? Or that Geep told Roman, and Roman told Alex? Or did Geep devise those plays during the preceding week, and it was then determined that those would be the plays that were going to be used.

Harbaughcalypse Now

by dutra on Jan 20, 2012 11:59 AM PST up reply actions

if the giants stack the line

Play action pass all the way!!

Who has it better than us?

by B1GB3N on Jan 19, 2012 4:40 PM PST via mobile reply actions

Stats analyst gives Niners 41% chance

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/19/title-game-probabilities-giants-should-be-favored/?ref=football
Says they are “lucky.”

by oldfoggy on Jan 19, 2012 4:42 PM PST reply actions

ACCUSCORE

ACCUSCORE has Niner’s at 52% chance of winning.

Let the game begin and may the best Niner’s win!

by MO Bond on Jan 19, 2012 4:54 PM PST up reply actions

I think he's underestimating our chances...

…because his model doesn’t take into account special teams. But he’s absolutely right our high ratio of takeaways to turnovers means we’ve been extremely lucky.

by Bigmouth on Jan 19, 2012 4:56 PM PST up reply actions

disagree

high ratio of takeaways to turnovers means we’ve been extremely lucky

Our offense has been conservative meaning we haven’t taken the risks that lead to interceptions, that’s not luck. Gore has significantly less yards after contact compared to last year. I think ball control and going down early have been emphasized this year. 3-out is better than a TO.

If you look at the number of fumbles we’ve had and then the number lost it’s been about 50-50. Same with the number of fumbles created vs. number recovered. That’s not luck.

by reedkrase on Jan 19, 2012 6:40 PM PST up reply actions

I agree, not as much luck as people would think

I mean was it “luck” that Whitner KO’d Pierre Thomas last saturday to cause a fumble? Nope, that was pure beast mode lol

by sanfranfanmdk on Jan 19, 2012 7:21 PM PST up reply actions

Forcing fumbles is a skill...

…recovering them is luck.

by Bigmouth on Jan 19, 2012 9:41 PM PST up reply actions

this

And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
Follow @manraj76

by manraj7 on Jan 19, 2012 10:49 PM PST up reply actions

yup

Colin Jones fell with the ball perfectly in his lap. Willis stripped the ball with Niners everywhere and the Saints recovered.

by mrg80 on Jan 20, 2012 4:36 AM PST up reply actions

Yup there's a big difference ...

… in turning the ball over and Creating turn overs …!!

I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!

by Edggy on Jan 19, 2012 8:34 PM PST up reply actions

According to Pro Football Reference...

…we’ve forced 22 fumbles and fumbled 17 times ourselves. Of those 39 total fumbles, we’ve recovered 27 or 69%. Since fumbles are random, that number should be closer to 50%, meaning we’ve been very lucky. All the moreso when you consider how timely some of those recoveries were, such as Justin Smith’s against the Eagles.

by Bigmouth on Jan 19, 2012 9:52 PM PST up reply actions

PS: I agree that Smith's avoidance of INTs....

….has been the result of skill, not luck.

by Bigmouth on Jan 19, 2012 9:56 PM PST up reply actions

so, we beat the Saints on luck??

If that’s what they think, they must not have been watching the same game we were; NO didn’t get called for any penalties (If I remember right) in the waning minutes when we were driving for those 2 TD’s; that was our offense efficiently moving the ball down the field and scoring when the chips were down; luck my a**; that’s fine though…if you wanna call Andy’s punts lucky too, by all means

by Doni S on Jan 20, 2012 10:56 AM PST via mobile up reply actions

No...

…he’s saying we probably won’t win if we lose the turnover battle. Not the same thing as saying we “can’t win” without them.

by Bigmouth on Jan 19, 2012 9:55 PM PST up reply actions

Red Zone Has Two Sides

Let’s not forget Red Zone Defense. When you factor in the Red Zone TD’s allowed our chances even a look a lot better.

Niner’s 4th in TD’s allowed for the regular season @ 41.67% Oveall. At home they allowed just 28.57%.

Giants 23rd in TD’s allowed for the regular season @ 55.38% Oveall. Away they allowed 57.89%

by MO Bond on Jan 19, 2012 4:51 PM PST reply actions 1 recs

Good stat here!

Let's giggity giggity Go 49ers!!!

by Kittles on Jan 19, 2012 5:34 PM PST up reply actions

Mike Sando is the master...

…of unreliable conclusions based on small samples, lol. This is precisely as many predicted. Since red zone performance is so variable, a team that under- or over-performs in the red zone relative to the rest of the field is likely to regress.

by Bigmouth on Jan 19, 2012 4:53 PM PST reply actions

Not to change the subject...

but Samuel Lam reported just now that Tarrell Brown (thigh) and Patrick Willis (knee) missed practice today. He said that the injuries were not serious. Ugh…

Let's giggity giggity Go 49ers!!!

by Kittles on Jan 19, 2012 5:18 PM PST reply actions

Will they play on Sunday?

Follow @OneManWoIfPack

by Anonymous1337 on Jan 19, 2012 5:21 PM PST via mobile up reply actions

His report didn't say

it just mentioned that they did not practice and that the injuries aren’t serious. Here is the link:

Let's giggity giggity Go 49ers!!!

by Kittles on Jan 19, 2012 5:25 PM PST up reply actions

There were a lot of people that sat out or were limited. Happens every week as the season goes on. Nothing to be concerned about.

Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh

by Virginia9er on Jan 19, 2012 5:29 PM PST up reply actions

everyone but Ginn will play is my bet.

Worst case scenario is Spencer is active if Brown can’t go and Culliver probably becomes CB2 with Brock or Spencer taking the outside in Nickel. Not somethign I want to see with how well Brown’s been playing (though he’s been arguably opportunistic) but I still think everyone will play.

We're as good as we play each week, no better, no worse.
Follow @Tre9er

by Tre9er on Jan 20, 2012 6:25 AM PST up reply actions

http://www.examiner.com/san-francisco-49ers-in-san-francisco/49ers-starters-cb-tarell-brown-lb-patrick-willis-miss-thursday-s-practice?CID=examiner_alerts_article

Let's giggity giggity Go 49ers!!!

by Kittles on Jan 19, 2012 5:25 PM PST reply actions

Put the link in the lower big section next time ...!!

http://www.examiner.com/san-francisco-49ers-in-san-francisco/49ers-starters-cb-tarell-brown-lb-patrick-willis-miss-thursday-s-practice?CID=examiner_alerts_article

I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!

by Edggy on Jan 19, 2012 8:37 PM PST up reply actions

I feel the 49er O-Line is a key reason for the Red Zone improvement....

Staley-Iupati-Goodwin-Snyder-Davis…have clearly improved & kept Alex (most of the time) up right.

I do have a HUGE concern about them facing the Giants fearsom D-Line.

The Giants recognize this is their second and last shot at proving they are better than the 9ers O-Line. Giants will be motivated, Big Time.

by BigMar on Jan 19, 2012 5:34 PM PST reply actions

I'm not concerned

Giants are third in the NFL, the line knows their tricks. I think we’re going to see a repeat of last time, guessing Alex will go down 3-4 times. Not ideal, but it’s way better than 9 and it won’t crush the offense.

by reedkrase on Jan 19, 2012 6:43 PM PST up reply actions

Alex just needs to hold onto the ball

He was way too loose with it vs Saints

by mrg80 on Jan 20, 2012 4:38 AM PST up reply actions

OK

I expect 49er fans to expect a win. But cmon let the Homerism stand aside and really look at this game please. Yes you guys have a great Defense and i say GREAT cause it is great however your Offense is not really that good IMO. Yes you put up 36 last week agaisnt a very weak NO Defense. But to think as some of you have predicted 30 plus on this Giants D is just absurd. We just held the BEST offense in the league to 6 points (the refs gave them 14). This game will come down to who on Offense can move the ball better and Im sorry i just dont see your Offense moving it like you did on the Saints agaisnt US however I believe we can move the ball agaisnt your D alot easier. Again thats is only my opinion

by g-men_fan on Jan 19, 2012 6:51 PM PST reply actions

WOW! What ref threw the other ref 2 TD's. Bad calls are a part of the game so deal with it.

My reasoning for why the niner offense can move the ball easier than the Giants offense is simple: Field position due to Special teams and our GREAT ( you said it ) defense. We dont have to make drives of 80-90 yards as the giants will need to due to Andy Lee and our defense stopping them. I like our chances against the giants D with a short field than the giants Offense against our defense with a long field. And the Niners D is GREAT in the Red Zone by the way. We held the Saints in check for just about the whole game. Yes they made plays in the end but that was pretty good for any defense to hold them down that long. So the Giants offense is not that scary. And if we can hold the Saints, its very possible our GREAT defense can hold the giants. Nothing in this reply is homerism. Just facts about what we have done all year long. Not just the last 3 games!

by Johnveeskys on Jan 19, 2012 7:25 PM PST up reply actions

Do you think the Giants will score that many points against the BEST defense in the NFL?

Sure they did pretty well against the WORST defense in the Packers, but they will be completely one dimensional against the Niners….also, the Saints may not have the best D, but it isn’t nearly as bad as the Packers

by sanfranfanmdk on Jan 19, 2012 7:27 PM PST up reply actions

Oh I left out the Packers defense in my reply. Nice point also.

Also Giants won 37-20 right. 7 of those points were a hail mary pass. WOW that would not happen against this D. And the other 7 at the end of the game with a fumble on the giants side of the field. So it wasnt the blowout everyone is making it out to be. The packers lost that game, more than the Giants won it.

by Johnveeskys on Jan 19, 2012 7:30 PM PST up reply actions

Yeah the Giants were so awesome they made wide open Green Bay receivers drop easy passes simply by force of will!

A weak New Orleans defense, really? Boy good thing we’re dropping the homerism. Obviously the Giants are better at defending the pass because they were ranked 29th while the Saints were 30th. The Saints allowed opposing QB’s 57% completions and 7 YPA while the Giants were EVEN BETTER allowing 61.5% and 7.5 YPA. Nobody could POSSIBLY score on that defense! And the Giants were positively stout vs the run finishing 19th, allowing 4.5 YPC and 121 YPG. Saints were TERRIBLE because they only ranked 11th and gave up 100 YPG… oh… oh wait… you mean it’s completely OPPOSITE of what you said!

by Indiana Jim on Jan 19, 2012 8:40 PM PST via mobile up reply actions

no need to be a smart a$$

Im simply saying the Giants have shut down way better offenses the last 4 weeks and i believe you guys wont score no more than 14 points and as far as feild position goes i understand that. however the Giants have a really good punter as well who can also change the position. i really cant wait till Sunday

by g-men_fan on Jan 20, 2012 4:07 AM PST via mobile up reply actions

lol fail title

You come here raging about homerism and then try and act all high and mighty. Congrats on your hail mary and running up the score late on a team that never showed up and then completely quit.

by mrg80 on Jan 20, 2012 4:40 AM PST up reply actions

Maybe so

but between our 2 teams, whose punter was voted to the pro bowl…oh, that would be the Niners’ Andy Lee…

by Doni S on Jan 20, 2012 11:04 AM PST via mobile up reply actions

& 1 more thing

weren’t the Giants coming off a serious high from beating Tom Brady’s Pats when we played them earlier in the season? & now they come off another huge victory by beating a similar high octane offense in GB…i believe I see a trend here…

by Doni S on Jan 20, 2012 11:09 AM PST via mobile up reply actions

This game will come down to turnovers.

by Zintzun22niner on Jan 19, 2012 7:00 PM PST via mobile reply actions

This game will come down to turnovers.

by Zintzun22niner on Jan 19, 2012 7:10 PM PST via mobile reply actions

Yes turnovers and....which ever Q.B. performs the best

by BigMar on Jan 19, 2012 8:24 PM PST up reply actions

The game will come down to... how many points each teams scores

All kidding aside, I have a lot of respect for what the Giants can do. I’m really of the opinion that the game can go both ways. There are just so many factors that need to be considered and too many things that can affect the game’s outcome. I have no doubt that we can hold our own and have a very good chance of winning but the Giants might catch a few breaks here and there that swing it to other way. May the best team (the Niners, ofc) win!

by FromCtoShining(Blue)C on Jan 20, 2012 4:59 AM PST reply actions