49ers Vs. Giants, NFC Championship Game: Jim Harbaugh Discusses Whether To Keep The Clock Running
49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh chatted with the media today before practice and there was an intriguing question that came up about Alex Smith's touchdown run. On a 3rd and 8 at the 49ers 28, Smith ran a keeper to the right that ended with him scampering in for a go-ahead touchdown with 2:11 remaining.
Today, the media asked Coach Harbaugh whether he would have preferred Alex Smith stop short of the goal line to run more clock. It almost cost the 49ers as the Saints marched down the field to nearly win the game, but obviously things worked out ok. In response, Coach Harbaugh had this to say:
That's a great question. Now you're going to get some debate here because there would be two schools of thought on this one. First of all, we didn't ‘heads up him' to do that. Because it was a third-and-eight play and we were back there at the 30-yard line. We're trying to get thefirst down. You certainly wouldn't put any thought in his mind of that at that point. The other thing was, he scores and you're still outside the two minute warning. You're still up there around 2:10, 2:15, 2:20. With them having one timeout, you kick that field goal at about 1:20 and that gives the Saints or the opposing team 1:20, only needing a field goal to beat you. I think you weigh out all the percentages and odds and you'd rather have the touchdown at that point. I think, right decision by Alex. Made the battlefield decision and took it into the end zone. I think it was the right one.
I can see the argument for stopping short of the goal line, but given how badly things can go, and forcing the Saints into a position to need to score a touchdown seemed like a good idea. The Saints had one timeout remaining so the 49ers could have brought the clock down pretty low, and they have the best kicker in the game right now. So, there is a significant argument for trying to whittle down the clock.
How would you have handled it? It's in the past now, but there is always the chance something like this comes up again against an explosive offense. The Giants can move the ball quickly with their receivers, and the Patriots can do some impressive things with that offense. So, it's not like this has no chance of happening again.
Head Coach Jim Harbaugh
Press Conference - January 19, 2012
San Francisco 49ers
Listen to Audio I Media Center
We're going to talk to CEO Jed York in a little bit, just talk about what contact you've had with him throughout the season. Have you had meetings with him after games? What's the relationship there this season with Jed?
"It's been shoulder to shoulder along with [General Manager] Trent [Baalke] and [Owner] John York. Everybody in the organization doing their job. I can't do Jed's job and I can't do [RB] Frank Gore's job. Everybody kind of doing their job. Weekly, sometimes daily."
He's obviously a young guy running the franchise. What was your first take of him when you were interviewing for a job?
"Very smart. Very quick-minded. Had the ability to make cool decisions. Had seen evidence of that over and over. Just all really positive. Set up a structure here to be an organization that's a top organization. Stand the test of time in all regards. Felt like he'd be a good skipper of the ship."
If you had to identify your team in a word or two, what comes to mind for you? Secondly, what has K David Akers meant to this team? What kind of year has he had?
"In a word or two? Define the team? I'll use six: The Team, The Team, The Team. With this team, that's not just a mantra, that's who they are. David Akers really could be our most valuable player. Maybe our most talented player. Really going along with who we are, [DT] Justin Smith can't do David Akers' job. David can't do Frank Gore's job or [QB] Alex Smith's job or [DT] Ray McDonald's job or [S] Donte Whitner's job. It's that kind of group that it's really who they are. They're a team. They all understand what they had to do. Specifically David Akers, he's probably the most talented guy at what he does, not only in the league this year, but it may shake out that he's the best of all time."
Talk about the offensive line. Alex's development has been credited far and wide. What have you seen from the day of the start with the offensive line to where they are now?
"They've gotten better and better. I think that's a group that really has taken to heart being better today than they were yesterday and being better tomorrow than they are today. It's helped that they've all played together. They've all stayed healthy. They've all played 17 games. It's a pretty expansive question, what you're asking. Let's go back to day one and detail out every way that they've performed. They're 14-3. That's how they've performed. That's the kind of offensive line that they've been. They've been a 14-3 type of offensive line."
With the six comebacks this season, we talked about the ‘95 comebacks of the Colts, what common traits do those teams have that make such comebacks possible?
"I hate to compare. You can't compare. It's so hard to compare. You're talking 15 or 16 years ago, my goodness. It's like baseball. Who's the greatest baseball player of all time? It's such a tough argument. I like to say Willie Mays, but you have other people that'll say Babe Ruth, because of what he did in his era. That he had more homeruns than any other baseball player, than some other teams hit at that time. He was hitting 65 and other teams were hitting nine. It's really tough to make comparisons. I think Willie Mays, too. Don't you, Art? Five-tool player. Lot of baseball people disagree with that. They've got a heck of an argument in Babe Ruth. Maybe that's a discussion for another time."
But Babe Ruth didn't play at Candlestick though.
"But Willie Mays didn't pitch. This could go on and on."
What tools do the modern-era 49ers possess?
"If you are going to make a comparison to players that played in the 90s to the ones that are playing now, I think the players now, and you have evidence of this, are bigger, they're stronger, they're faster, they're smarter. There are just so many qualities that they are."
What Cam means is what are the most important traits of a comeback team? What's the most important trait of a team that can come back?
"I don't know that I'm the expert of knowing that. Really, I kind of just answer that with really... we're not in to answering questions. We're really not looking to write the magazine article or the book. Or anything like that. We're still asking questions as a team. That's what we are. That's how we have been doing this all along. There's no reason to veer off of that. Do we have what it takes to find a way to win? If we're in that situation again this week, are we focused enough and diligent enough to study the way we need to, this team that we're playing this week? Will we be as physical as the Giants in this ball game? Are we tough enough to play with this team this week? There's just so many questions that we're asking. Just no time to be answering questions right now."
One real specific thing for you. When Alex ran in the touchdown at the end of the game, there was some discussion that maybe it would have been better if he stopped before the goal line, run more clock, kick the field goal. Would you have preferred that if you could have done it that way or are you more take the touchdown when you can get it?
"That's a great question. Now you're going to get some debate here because there would be two schools of thought on this one. First of all, we didn't ‘heads up him' to do that. Because it was a third-and-eight play and we were back there at the 30-yard line. We're trying to get thefirst down. You certainly wouldn't put any thought in his mind of that at that point. The other thing was, he scores and you're still outside the two minute warning. You're still up there around 2:10, 2:15, 2:20. With them having one timeout, you kick that field goal at about 1:20 and that gives the Saints or the opposing team 1:20, only needing a field goal to beat you. I think you weigh out all the percentages and odds and you'd rather have the touchdown at that point. I think, right decision by Alex. Made the battlefield decision and took it into the end zone. I think it was the right one."
Can you talk a little about confidence and how that plays into everything you're talking about here? Really when you think about the beginning of the season until now how that's evolved with this team? You do something and you do it again, you're in a situation and you come through, where does that fit?
"It's one of those words. Confidence is a funny thing. Love is a funny thing. I think with these players, you've got to darn sure be confident. You just don't stand a chance if you're not. I think all these men are. They're those kinds of guys that play professional football. They're confident, strong-willed men. That confidence can grow. We've seen that. We've seen evidence of that on this team. I think it comes from the belief that they have in themselves, but also they see how other guys are working, preparing, playing. That confidence has the ability to grow that way."
What about the fact that you actually get something done and it's tested. Does that add to that resolve, add to that confidence?
"I think it definitely grows that way. You see evidence. You see that the training, the hard work, the study pays off for yourself and that's evidence. Or you see that in somebody else, like ‘look at the way he's doing things, look at the way he comes in here every morning at 6:15.' T. Brown's on the treadmill every single day until about 6:45, 6:50. Just using him specifically as an example, but there's other guys like [CB] Tarell Brown that do that. Then he goes into the meetings and studies. Then you watch him on the practice field work. Then you see him in games having success. Then the other player, the younger player perhaps, sees that and, ‘that's the way to do it.' It's just a matter of pushing each other. Each confidence has the ability to go up that way."
It's a very fundamental skill, tackling. You guys seem to do it extremely well. Have you been associated with a better tackling team as far as defense?
"I can't think of a team that I've been associated with that's a better tackling team than this."
Is there some secret to it or is just the talent you inherited here?
"Probably both. There are some secrets and there's a lot of talent here."
You're not going to tell me the secrets are you?
"No, no, no. No questions on the weather?"
Are you taking any special precautions because of the weather?
"Interesting you'd ask that. I know I was standing on my balcony today at about 6:20, 6:30 that area. Looked out and saw a very red sky. That means that ‘red sky at night, sailors' delight. Red sky in morning, sailors take warning.' I anticipate that we'll have some precipitation today. Some weather. That'll be a great thing for us. Admiral Bull Halsey once said, ‘If you're going to fight in the North Atlantic, then you've got to prepare in the North Atlantic.' They're anticipating some rain on Sunday. We won't know until Sunday morning when we can check the sky. Excited that we may get some rain today at practice. Might help us to prepare for the ball game on Sunday."
This might be too technical of a question, but if it rains today or rains tomorrow can you simulate what Candlestick is going to be like? Do you have the same grass here as Candlestick?
"It's a matter of, it's not just today or tomorrow. This team is built for just about any weather conditions. You simulate that through the months, through the years."
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To me it's not even worth discussion.
Niners had less points at that time. No way you basically take points off the board by downing it short of the goal line.
Over
Exactly
You only contemplate this if you are tied or up 1. But even then, kind of an unnecessary wrench to throw into the wheelhouse. If you’re losing, take the score. If you’re up 2, take the score.
The old Alex might have over thought things and tried to slide. The new Alex is an assassin.
by 9wa on Jan 19, 2012 9:53 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Totally agree
So many things can go wrong and if they do and you lose the game try explaining that.
"It's impossible to hide the fire inside" - Bob Seger
I agree with Harbs.
Shocker, I know. But you have to take the TD. Besides, our D has shown many times they can put a game away, so you gotta rely on them to do it. As it turns out they didn’t in this case, but I was confident in them.
Also, I’m watching the replay of the Giants game in week 10 and Nicks kinda abuses T. Brown. I think Brown has done better than I would have expected this year but I like him better as a nickel CB. Do you think they will put Brown on Nicks again this Sunday? Interesting match-up to watch.
Brown has been playing very well the last few weeks, so yeah, it should be an interesting match-up if they do put Brown on Nicks.
I think he’ll win some, and lose some, just hope his wins matter more than his losses.
"Blackmail is such an ugly word. I prefer "extortion." The "X" makes it sound cool." - Bender Bending Rodriguez
Eleanor Rigby - "Greatest Song" or "The Greatest Song"?
"Sitting on a sofa on a Sunday afternoon..."
We didn't have the lead and we weren't tied.
If we had milked the clock for a field goal, the announcers would’ve put up David Akers’ stats about how good he was this year. And you know how things go when announcers put up stats like that.
Take the points unless you’re at least tied.
You absolutely take the TD in that scenario...
And ideally, you convert the two point conversion. Then you are basically guaranteed a victory or at worst overtime.
At this point it doesn’t matter what would have happened. I’m just glad things worked out the way they did. Not only did we win the game, but last minute drives like that can propel you to Super Bowl championships and give your team added confidence for years to come.
by EyeBlack22 on Jan 19, 2012 8:03 PM PST via iPhone app reply actions
You take the touchdown.
There’s no question in my mind about it. Putting hindsight aside, if you do that, you’re basically telling one of the best defenses in the league “we don’t trust you to not let them score.” Besides, the Niners had the opportunity to get the 2 points and make it a full touchdown lead. You HAVE to go that route. And now let’s bring hindsight back in – how long did it take the Saints to score after that?
Exactly.
At least with Alex taking it all the way in, the NINERS still had the time to march it right back down the field and put the ball in the endzone again leaving the Saints with only a few seconds…
"We're not into answering questions"
Follow @LooseCannon79
You play the game not the clock.
I’d always go for the points and deal with the what ifs after the win.
Affectionately,
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar,
NBA’s All-Time Leading Scorer
by afrikabamboodle on Jan 19, 2012 8:09 PM PST reply actions
More is More ..!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!
HELLO!
YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME
"In basketball -- as in life -- true joy comes from being fully present in each and every moment, not just when things are going your way." -Phil Jackson
by milldoo on Jan 19, 2012 8:31 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Thanks Herm!
Always glad to have you stop by ;) LOL
"We're not into answering questions"
Follow @LooseCannon79
by LooseCannon79 on Jan 19, 2012 9:18 PM PST up reply actions
Just made this 49ers vs Giants Dance off video
Only the 2nd video Ive ever made so I hope everyone likes it. I also made a fan post about it.
I like it
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
Follow @manraj76
Nice...
"I pity the fool, and I will destroy any man who tries to take what I got!. You ready? Here come the PAIN."
by whatsURdeal on Jan 19, 2012 11:58 PM PST up reply actions
Gotta make you wonder when you see a Special Team ...
… out there dancing and getting their groove on all pumped up , right before they come down and rip your freaking head off … = ( Intimidating ) …!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!
seems to me
That if we could have taken the clock down to less than 20 seconds then run the clock otherwise take the TD.
It seems crazy to leave yourself in a situation where you are only up by 2 and your opponent has the final possession with reasonable time. Suicidal even…
by Delmuir on Jan 19, 2012 9:01 PM PST via mobile reply actions
I think it's at least worth considering.
Assuming Smith goes down in bounds, they could’ve run the clock down a lot further than 1:20. It would’ve been first and goal with 2:00 remaining. With the Saints only having one timeout, the Niners could run the clock down to under 0:40 before kicking a field goal.
If the Saints’ drive starts at the 20, they would need to go at least 45 yards in about 0:35. With no timeouts, I just don’t see that happening.
by RoyaleWithCheese on Jan 19, 2012 9:27 PM PST reply actions
With 2:11 left in the game the Saints went 78 yards and scored a TD...
34 seconds later.
Had they done the same in your scenario we’d be obsessing over what could have been and pouring over mock drafts looking to see what pieces the team could add to get them to where they are already.
I know it’s a hypothetical discussion, but I think things worked out well the way they did.
by kailuakid9er on Jan 19, 2012 11:57 PM PST up reply actions
Strategically, it’s a totally different situation. With over two minutes and a timeout left, the Saints were able to use the entire field.
With only 35 seconds left, getting tackled in bounds would likely use up at least half that time. The Niners would happily concede a 10-15 yard completion in the middle of the field in order to prevent passes to the sideline and big plays downfield.
I couldn’t be happier with the way things worked out. But we’re talking about the process, not the end result.
by RoyaleWithCheese on Jan 20, 2012 12:23 AM PST up reply actions
I get that you’re talking process, but you’re delving into laws of probability here.
If Alex Smith goes down in bounds, and if they try running the clock down just to get a field goal with a hope to prevail in OT—increases the probability of losing the game in OT, or worse…regulation. What if they hadn’t scored? What if they turned the ball over, or missed the field goal?
Harbaugh is smart, cerebral, and you know he also has a measure of uber-aggressiveness. Harbaugh once said that he looks for “athletic instincts” in his QB. Alex’s “athletic instincts” told him to take it to the house. The ultimate goal is always to score TD’s. When his number was called for a run I’m sure he didn’t “know” he was going to score on that play, and when he saw that he was, I’m sure he wasn’t thinking “If I slide here we can run more time off the clock, kick a field goal, and go to OT.” No. His instincts told him to score. He didn’t over think things in the heat of the moment.
Take a few words of wisdom from Top Gun,
“You don’t have time to think up there.”
“If you think, you’re dead.”
Plus—-according to the laws of probability, the team’s odds of winning are higher if they score a TD as opposed to what the journalist was asking. So, no. You don’t get “too cute” and try to run out the clock before kicking a FG. You take the TD, and the win.
by kailuakid9er on Jan 20, 2012 1:05 AM PST up reply actions
Strike this
with a hope to prevail in OT—increases the probability of losing the game in OT, or worse…regulation. What if they hadn’t scored? What if they turned the ball over, or missed the field goal?
…and this
kick a field goal, and go to OT.
That’s what I get for juggling too many comments while deprived of sleep.
by kailuakid9er on Jan 20, 2012 1:12 AM PST up reply actions
Overcooking
Point is that when the opportunity for a TD avails itself you take the TD.
by kailuakid9er on Jan 20, 2012 1:17 AM PST up reply actions
That is the conventional wisdom. Most of the time, it’s right. Doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t at least consider the alternatives, though.
By the way, I’m well aware that there was never much of a chance that Harbaugh would tell Smith to go down short of the goal line (and I certainly wouldn’t expect him to make that decision on his own). I’m not sure if there’s a single coach in the league who would in that situation. Still doesn’t make it the wrong call, though.
It’s late. Tomorrow, I’ll try plugging the numbers into this win probability calculator. Maybe I’ll come up with a more definitive answer.
by RoyaleWithCheese on Jan 20, 2012 1:43 AM PST up reply actions
if the niners convert the 2 point conversion
you’re talking about the saints having ~40 seconds to get a fg for the win or 2:11 to get a TD to tie. at that point it’s no contest. and you can’t know beforehand whether or not you’re going to convert
"Anthony Davis is no different than Al Farouq Aminu." - J--Ridah
I like the win probability calculator!
That’s a nice little number cruncher!
I plugged in two scenarios:
- 1st scenario being before Alex ran it in for a TD with 2:11 on the clock with down & distance of 3rd and 8 from the 28.
- 2nd scenario where they run out the clock. In the 2nd scenario I put 40 seconds on the clock with down & distance of 4th and 10 from the 10 because I’m going to assume that they’re just going to take a knee a few times, as opposed to actually trying to score a TD, to run down the clock.
The Win Probability is slightly higher with the 2nd scenario of running out the clock and kicking a FG (0.93 vs. 0.81), but the Expected Points are slighly higher in the 1st scenario (2.47 vs. 2.15) .
The concept was worth exploring as an intellectual exercise, so thank you for that opportunity, but I think it would have been impractical in the real world scenario played out on the field. Because, I think difference in Win Probability is negligible here, and with no one to stop Smith getting the TD on that run, I stil think you take the “bird in the hand” approach here as opposed to the “two in the bush.”
by kailuakid9er on Jan 20, 2012 10:36 AM PST up reply actions
Correction: “I think the difference in Win Probability is negligible here”
by kailuakid9er on Jan 20, 2012 10:38 AM PST up reply actions
of course the 2nd scenario is higher
your first scenario doesnt have smith scoring the td.
"Anthony Davis is no different than Al Farouq Aminu." - J--Ridah
the expected points of smith scoring the td would not be 2.47, it would be like 6.8ish
"Anthony Davis is no different than Al Farouq Aminu." - J--Ridah
Expected points
That’s the average probability of points scored in each scenario, not the actual results. If Smith scores a TD the points are no longer expect points because he would have 6 points (7 pending the extra point attempt).
Savvy?
by kailuakid9er on Jan 20, 2012 12:11 PM PST up reply actions
you're not understanding
thats not even the argument. we are not arguing whether or not it is better to have 3rd and 8 from the 28 with 2:11 left down 1 point versus 4th and 10 from the 10 with 40 seconds left.
the argument is about which play would be smarter, scoring the td or running the clock down and kicking the fg.
"Anthony Davis is no different than Al Farouq Aminu." - J--Ridah
Really?
I clearly didn’t understand a discussion I has having with someone else to which you were a 3rd party to after the fact?
Really? “C’mon man!”
by kailuakid9er on Jan 20, 2012 1:47 PM PST up reply actions
I plugged in two scenarios:
- 1st scenario being before Alex ran it in for a TD with 2:11 on the clock with down & distance of 3rd and 8 from the 28.
- 2nd scenario where they run out the clock. In the 2nd scenario I put 40 seconds on the clock with down & distance of 4th and 10 from the 10 because I’m going to assume that they’re just going to take a knee a few times, as opposed to actually trying to score a TD, to run down the clock.
1st scenario is WRONG. what don’t you understand about that. you’re comparing TD vs FG, not 3rd and 8 from the 28 vs FG.
"Anthony Davis is no different than Al Farouq Aminu." - J--Ridah
if you'll notice
taking the TD is better than the fg, but in your scenario, it came out worse. do you understand why it came out worse? it’s because you didn’t input the right scenario
"Anthony Davis is no different than Al Farouq Aminu." - J--Ridah
Sorry, but that's not how it works
That’s not how the win probability calculator works kino. Did you check it out?
As you can see for yourself, it doesn’t give you the option to enter that a TD was scored, or any score for that matter, though the probability of scoring a TD was higher in my 1st scenario vs the 2nd scenario. That’s why in my discussion with Royale I brought up probabilities, since he was talking about a hypothetical situation. Of course since Alex actually scored a TD in the real world case the probability went up significantly, but the calculator didn’t give me that option, so i had to set up 2 hypothetical situations
So, what’s the probabilty we win the game if we have 3rd and 8 at the 28 vs 4th and goal at the 10? That’s what I had to work with given the calculators parameters.
I appreciate that you want to make sure I did things correctly, but that’s what it spit out.
Peace out!
by kailuakid9er on Jan 20, 2012 2:14 PM PST up reply actions
- bleeping - link didn't show up
http://wp.advancednflstats.com/winprobcalc1.php
try cutting and pasting, or just click on the link that Royale provided.
by kailuakid9er on Jan 20, 2012 2:15 PM PST up reply actions
I think the best way to handle this would be to skip to the start of the Saints’ drive, computing the win probability from their perspective. Here’s what I came up with for the Saints starting on their own 20 with 2:11 remaining:
Down by 5: 0.19
Down by 7: 0.15
Assuming the odds of a two-point conversion are more or less 50/50, the overall probability should be about 0.17.
by RoyaleWithCheese on Jan 20, 2012 4:34 PM PST up reply actions
Now, if the Saints start at their own 20, down by 2 with only 0:40 remaining, their win probability is 0.10.
Obviously, there are a few things that could potentially go wrong as the Niners try to run clock and kick the field goal. In order to get an accurate estimate, these factors would all have to be accounted for.
Additionally, I think the Saints would likely have less than 40 seconds left. (Each kneel down could take a second or two off the clock before the play clock is reset; there could be a slight delay in getting the timeout called; the field goal would take several seconds off the clock; if they try to return the kickoff, they would lose several more seconds.)
by RoyaleWithCheese on Jan 20, 2012 4:57 PM PST up reply actions
depending on the length of the final field goal, the difference becomes pretty negligible
i think the break even point for win probability is the kick from about the 8 or 9 yard line
"Anthony Davis is no different than Al Farouq Aminu." - J--Ridah
Down by 5: 0.19
Down by 7: 0.15
i’m not sure i exactly believe these numbers either. the calculator seems to indicate that the probability of scoring a td starting on your own 20 is at 0.15, so with 2 minutes left, you would think that would drop a bit. anyways, even if you assume the probability of scoring a td with 2 min left is 0.15, how can a team down 5 have a win probability of 0.19 and a team down 7 have a win probability of 0.15? something doesn’t add up.
"Anthony Davis is no different than Al Farouq Aminu." - J--Ridah
as royalewithcheese stated, just add on the points and start the saints drive at say...the 20 yard line (assuming touchback)
"Anthony Davis is no different than Al Farouq Aminu." - J--Ridah
Probabilties
That’s what we were discussing, the probability of winning if Smith hadn’t scored a TD, and the team running down the clock more and kicking a FG instead. That’s what you’ll see if you read our entire exchange.
by kailuakid9er on Jan 20, 2012 12:07 PM PST up reply actions
i'm telling you that you didnt compare the correct probabilities
you compared running the clock out and kicking a FG with starting over with 3rd and 8 at the 28.
what you were supposed to compare was running the clock out and kicking a FG with scoring the TD
"Anthony Davis is no different than Al Farouq Aminu." - J--Ridah
in fact, if you used the correct probabilities, it actually improves your argument
so i don’t see why youre standing by these wrong numbers
"Anthony Davis is no different than Al Farouq Aminu." - J--Ridah
.93 vs .81 is pretty huge actually
other analysis suggests that it’s more like 0.02 difference
[Poorly Wrought THING] is what Brian Sabean would have made if he were a [THING-maker] instead of a MLB GM
I stand by my previous conclusion
Despite my slight naïveté regarding how significant the difference between .93 vs .81 is, your reference to other analysis still supports the conclusion that it was not a significant enough difference to warrant downing the ball and then kicking a FG after running down the clock instead of scoring a TD as he did.
by kailuakid9er on Jan 20, 2012 12:19 PM PST up reply actions
Aldon = Defensive Rookie of the Year?
Did I miss the update on NN? I only now found out about this because of a small blip in the SF Chronicle’s Sports Page. Most of the major football sites didn’t seem to publicize it either. What gives?
http://www.profootballweekly.com/2012/01/18/aldon-smith-wins-defensive-rookie-of-the-year
"The principle is competing against yourself. It's about self improvement, about being better than you were the day before." ~Steve Young #8
That's the Pro Football Weekly award
Not the AP. Though, the two are rarely different, so hopefully he gets ’em both!
by InTimmyWeTrust on Jan 19, 2012 10:02 PM PST up reply actions
I saw a little blurb about that...
in Santa Rosa’s “Press Democrat” today. ESPN Stats guy Bill Williamson also declared Smith ESPN’s Defensive Rookie of the Year.
There’s still a lot of support out there for Von Miller, but that injured hand he was playing with at the end of the season may have slowed him down enough to let Aldon surpass him for the “big” DROTY award.
"We're not into answering questions"
Follow @LooseCannon79
by LooseCannon79 on Jan 19, 2012 10:09 PM PST up reply actions
*correction
All apologies – Matt Williamson. I always wanna call that guy “Bill” for some reason…lol
"We're not into answering questions"
Follow @LooseCannon79
by LooseCannon79 on Jan 19, 2012 10:09 PM PST up reply actions
Bill Williamson
I’ve made that mistake a lot too. Bill WIlliamson is an ESPN division blogger (like Mike Sando)
Von Miller injury may be the reason itself that he does not win it because he could not physically handle a whole season . Von Miller also does not play good against the run.
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
by HUNGRY HUNTER on Jan 20, 2012 12:01 AM PST up reply actions
No guarantee that Alex would have been able to stop...
By the time he got outside pursuit, Alex was at full speed towards the sideline – he straightened out at about the 10, with Staley and the NO safety about a yard to his right and the sideline one foot away to his left. If Alex had tried to slide right there, he risked stepping out of bounds with upwards of 2 minutes remaining. If he tried to slow up, Jenkins (No. 27) could have forced him out of bounds – still outside 2 minutes.
Either way, assuming the Niners would just try to take a knee, all the Saints have to do is call their TO on 1st down, take the 2-minute warning on 2nd, and the best the Niners can do is to take it down to 1:10 – so Brees would have at least 1 minute to go 50 yards for a game-winning FG. Which, as we saw, was an entirely realistic scenario.
If Alex had only gotten the first down, then sure, Harbaugh might have played the grind-it-out game to set up Akers. But as Philip Rivers reminded us earlier this year – and Joe Pisarcik did in 1978 – you can never be 100 percent sure on anything.
No guarantee everything perfectly plays out with running the clock
some one could fumble, the field goal could get blocked. But also we all know how amazing David Akers has been, but before this career season by Akers, he was known to gaff during the playoffs with the Eagles. So… good call on the TD Run.
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There’s no guarantee that either scenario plays out perfectly. If there were, the choice would be obvious. The goal is to pick whichever option best minimizes the potential risks.
Also, Akers’ career FG% in the playoffs is 82.9%. In the regular season, it’s 82.2%. Not sure I understand your point…
by RoyaleWithCheese on Jan 20, 2012 12:43 AM PST up reply actions
its not his percentages
he just missed the “big ones” that would of really helped
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You take the TD. God knows what could of happened. Plus your say to take 3 points instead of 7? Yeah right
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- A fan of the Warriors and Lakers.
The only concern I had was the play for the two point conversion.
Would have liked to see Alex do a bootleg again with a run/pass option on the edge. That two point conversion was crucial as it would have put the Niners up by 7; I think this made the defense more aggressive going for the ball because the Saints scoring a td would have given them the lead. Seven point lead would have given the defense confidence do be more conservative and not go for the interception over making a solid tackle. But in the end it all worked out; now other teams will be looking to run out the clock against the Niners making their game time strategy decisions harder.
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
I wonder if boot/pass was the original call
Looked like Alex thought he saw something in the Saints D and audibled to a Gore run, which obviously the Saints were ready for.
i suspect the same thing
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
by HUNGRY HUNTER on Jan 20, 2012 2:08 PM PST up reply actions
You can't have a bootleg with a run/pass option
That works like that one. Staley was downfield. If Alex were to throw in such a situation it’s ineligible man downfield unless Staley checks in which limits the surprise of such a play.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Jan 20, 2012 1:27 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
The play began just trying to get a first down.
By the time Alex smells the end zone he’s running on instinct and adrenaline. It would have to be a decision made prior to the snap, as there’s no time for that thought process @ game speed in the heat of the moment.
"I pity the fool, and I will destroy any man who tries to take what I got!. You ready? Here come the PAIN."
Exactly! Harbaugh looks for "athletic intsincts" in his QB. He got 'em.
see my long-winded (and delirious) post above.
by kailuakid9er on Jan 20, 2012 1:20 AM PST up reply actions
Alex played it correctly
Just as the Niners did last season when coming back against the Saints. Any criticism then, as now, is silly. When you trail, you get the points when you can unless the defense is stopping you with the clock running, in which case you let it run down. If the game were tied, it would be worth sliding down inside the 5-yard line. To add, as much as I love Akers, FGs are not guaranteed. Take the TD and trust your defense.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
We dat team that beat them Saints!
Take the points
Are D had been playing great all day ask sean payton that question or darren sproles oh wait you cant they at home watching us play haha
by Moflush on Jan 20, 2012 4:21 AM PST via mobile reply actions
The decision depends on the time, not score
I think that the only times I would ever take a knee to run the clock is if I could take it down to 3 seconds before the FG.
That way, you are guaranteed that the FG is the last play of the game. Here, the clock would be somewhere around a minute right? way too much time.
I can't imagine asking any player to stop intentionally before the goal line...
…in that situation when you need to score. That said, it wouldn’t have been the worst thing in the world if the replay had shown he stepped out of bounds.
I don't even know why this is a topic worth discussing...especially since the question came from Kawakami.
Let’s just appreciate the awesome run by Smith and not second guess it. The fact we’re even discussing what he “should’ve” done is disgusting in light of our awesome win.
We have to focus on the NYG now…not what Smith “should’ve” done.
by Sactown_Loyalty19 on Jan 20, 2012 8:50 AM PST reply actions
It's not a no brainer either way
Harbaugh’s estimate of a FG with 1:20 remaining is not the same as others with 40s remaining. That is a H-u-g-e difference. Even with 40s remaining and a 1 point lead it’s only a .02 WPA edge for taking a knee. I also don’t think the WPA counts the 50% chance of getting the 2 point conversion. Which probably cuts it to .01.
[Poorly Wrought THING] is what Brian Sabean would have made if he were a [THING-maker] instead of a MLB GM
by zenbitz on Jan 20, 2012 12:24 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Also
If Alex slows up to take a knee, does he accidentally step or get pushed out of bounds? That would stop the clock at 2:11, meaning the Saints don’t need to use a TO before the 2-minute warning. Given that he was running down the sideline, that’s a distinct possibility. It might account for the difference between the 1:20 and :40 estimates on time remaining.
I think the bigger question is....
How stupid does Jimmy Graham look for not going down on the 2? They could have taken a knee, (timeout 49ers) run a rushing play, (clock runs), then thrown. They made it look easy on the 2pt conversion. They would have scored and the game would be over.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Jan 20, 2012 1:22 PM PST via mobile reply actions
I was screaming at the TV "Let him score! Let him score!"
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Jan 20, 2012 1:24 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
scoring in the redzone against the niners is not always easy; as are two point conversions
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
by HUNGRY HUNTER on Jan 20, 2012 2:10 PM PST up reply actions
I’m not so sure about this. In the previous situation, the Niners only needed a field goal to take the lead. The Saints needed a touchdown. Yes, they made it look easy on the conversion. Doesn’t mean that the same thing would’ve happened, though.
by RoyaleWithCheese on Jan 20, 2012 4:10 PM PST up reply actions
I've been hating Westbrook ever since he'd screwed my fantasy team back in 07.
No way I would have wanted Alex to take a knee, because I couldn’t conceivably love one guy and hate another for doing basically the same thing.

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