Yes, Yards per point is the single biggest predictor of victory in the NFL

by nickbradley on Jan 21, 2012 12:13 PM PST

I've heard for years that yards per point, or YPP, is the single biggest predictor of victory in the NFL, and that oddsmakers and professional sports bettors have been using the method for quite some time. The logic is that net YPP takes into account ALL aspects of the game, offense, defense, special teams, red zone performance, turnovers, and field position.

Since I can't wait for Sunday, I crunched the numbers today.

The 49ers had the #1 net YPP in the NFL regular season in 2011, which essentially means that the 49ers were the MOST COMPLETE TEAM IN THE NFL; Net YPP is defensive YPP allowed minus offensive YPP gained. This playoffs, every team with a better in-game net YPP won the game. Comparing total season Net YPP vs. winning percentage for teams that have made the playoffs, a linear regression yields an R^2 of over 0.8, which is very strong. If you add in Tennessee, it still stays above 0.8. And if you limit the data to the 20 teams that finished .500 or better, the R^2 is still 0.67.

If you dig into YPP, things begin to make sense. For example, the Patriots is #2 in YPP allowed (19.4 YPP) after the 49ers at 21. Both teams have incredible bend but don't break defense. For offense, the lower the number the better. The 49ers were #2 in the NFL in offensive YPP after the Packers, 12.9 and 11.8. The 49ers scored a point every.

The Giants are 29th in Net YPP this year, an outlier. Net YPP is only 0.33, but they're a league best 14.73 in the playoffs. Keep in mind that most of that metric comes from a whopping 105 Net YPP from the Atlanta game.

I firmly believe they will deviate back to the mean for the season. Playoff teams all revert back to their mean -- the Giants would be the only team NOT to do this...you can have one bad game (e.g. the 2011 Packers), but you can't just have an amazing playoffs. It doesn't work like that.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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Comments

Agree that YPP is a large indicator of success

I think the biggest reason we’ve been so much better this year is that we’ve been able to have a great YPP both on offense and defense compared to last year. I’m not so sure the Giants will revert to the mean, though. I would expect it if they were using the same personnel, but they’re getting a lot healthier on defense.

I'm just a simple Niners fan trying to make my way in the universe.

by Tim Lincecum's Bong on Jan 21, 2012 4:01 PM PST reply actions

I really hope you're right.

About the Giants deviating back to the mean.

by Odekerk on Jan 21, 2012 4:43 PM PST reply actions

Actually, it might "work like that" sometimes.

I’m just wondering what the 2006 Colts YPP differences would look like from the regular season compared to the post season. They weren’t as mediocre as the Giants this regular season, but I do remember them having the leagues worst run defense and then almost miraculously were stopping the run in the playoffs. Including that first game against the leagues leading rusher in Preist Holmes from KC. IND won the SB.

The 2008 Cardinals might be another team to examine as a potential for a big turn around. 9-7 in the regular season, then turned it on in the playoofs so much that it took a game winning drive by PIT to steal the Lombardi.

1988 Niners might be another one who made a significant jump from regular season to playoffs. They were only 10-6 but turned it on when it mattered most. Won SB.

2007 Giants, another 10-6 team who didn’t look like world beaters on either side of the ball until they turned it on in the playoffs. Won the SB.

I think there are other teams out there who didn’t “deviate back to the mean.” And some of these teams might qualify if you took the time to check. I certainly am not, though. :-)

"We borrowed golf from the Scottish as we borrowed whiskey. Not because it is Scottish, but because it is good." Horace Hutchinson

No more score predictions...

by tommy d. on Jan 21, 2012 7:02 PM PST reply actions