Jim Harbaugh Reiterates Commitment To Alex Smith Moving Forward
by David Fucillo on Jan 3, 2012 10:30 AM PST
in 49ers QB 2011
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PrintIn yesterday's press conference, 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh was asked some questions about Alex Smith and his future with the 49ers. The comments were not exactly shocking, but they have picked up some traction in the last 24 hours.
Coach Harbaugh was asked about his previous comment about Alex being his guy moving forward and whether he had spoken with Alex about this. Coach Harbaugh said he had since he would not say one thing to the media about a player and not say it to the player as well. This is not ground-breaking information, but it is still worth noting as the team moves through the playoffs and eventually starts offseason preparations for 2012.
The highlight of that little segment, and I would say the entire press conference was this:
Is there sort of a verbal agreement, almost like what you guys had before the lockout lifted? "Hey we're going to move forward."
"No, no. I don't know exactly what verbal agreement you're referreing to."
Coach Harbaugh might as well have plugged his fingers in his ears and screamed "LA! LA! LA! I can't hear you!" I don't know how potential tampering and previous lockout rules might or might not be applied after the fact in this case, but it is not worth messing around with this sort of thing. So, just plead ignorance.
In regards to Alex Smith, at this point his return would seem almost inevitable. At some point this past offseason his return seemed inevitable given how the lockout was progressing. There is no lockout to worry about this year, but whatever your opinion of Alex Smith, his return does once again seem inevitable.
Things do change and new opportunities can present themselves, so there is no 100% guarantee that Smith returns. Both sides need to agree to a deal. While it seems like a deal should not really be that difficult to hammer out, business is business.
What I think becomes more interesting is the question whether the 49ers bring back Scott Tolzien or find another backup. There is no real word on that and given that Tolzien has spent the season inactive each week, I don't think anybody really knows what the coaching staff think of the rookie QB. They jumped on him when he was released by the San Diego Chargers, but that was also four months ago. Things change.
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3 year, 27 million deal, with a club option for a fourth year depending on performance.
Alex Smith 86%+ QB rating with 22+ TDs this season, hopefully! :)
with 5 million guaranteed
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
by HUNGRY HUNTER on Jan 3, 2012 11:18 AM PST up reply actions
First, refund $49 million from first contract.
Agent Dunham....Walternate testified that in his universe, AleX Smith is a pro-bowl QB for the Saints, and broke Trent Dilfer's season record of 6000 yards passing. Walter....Thats nice, more LSD please.
by scrappydog on Jan 3, 2012 11:23 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Why?
He put in the work. Played while injured, with horrible coaching and kept his mouth shut better than most people would have in his position.
by IHavIssues on Jan 3, 2012 4:37 PM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
Smith was good enough this year despite OL and receiver problems -
- that it’d be hard to find a good short-term upgrade. Matt Flynn’s going to get a lot of money this offseason, considering he’s got two career starts and 148 career attempts – no matter how good he looked on Sunday.
by Ronaldinho on Jan 3, 2012 10:48 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
I still think it's 50/50 that the Colts cut Manning before his March 8th bonus
that would be an interesting moment for the league leading into free agency, where will he go, how much will he get paid. I think he’d want a nice domed field, perhaps the Cardinals.
Draft: 1. Kendall Wright 2. Trumaine Johnson
FA: Smith, Morgan, Brooks, Rogers, Snyder
by whistlingmountain on Jan 3, 2012 10:50 AM PST up reply actions
Yeah that would be scary.
I don’t want him anywhere near the NFC West.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
by Joshuahss on Jan 3, 2012 10:53 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm still nervous about his health.
And the cost of his contract. I’d hate to see all of our own FAs have to leave to sign him, only for him to get hurt. Let someone outside the division take that chance.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
you woudn't be okay with getting
Manning on a heavily incentive laden deal given his neck got the OK?
I would.
But I don’t think there is any way that happens. He would be much more likely to stay with the Colts in that case. Some team is going to take a chance and pay him a lot of money.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
not guaranteed or anyting with a huge signing bonus
He’s gonna get a bit $$$ short term contract that will allow the team to cut him at any time without a huge $ penalty.
Not likely
Enough teams will want him that he won’t have to take that sort of deal.
Health problems factored in, he’d still be a potentially phenomenal acquisition for most quarterback-needing teams.
As such, because there is only one of him, demand will exceed supply, and he’ll get a LOT of money without having to prove that he was healthy.
Sort of like he did last year.
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Jan 3, 2012 11:57 AM PST up reply actions
This is how I see it too.
A high risk/high reward type of signing.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
your dreaming
Players like Edwards get the incentive laden contracts the Mannings of the world get guaranteed money.
by IHavIssues on Jan 3, 2012 4:45 PM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
Doesn't fit the offense.
Plus, he is not gonna come get hammered behind our offensive line.
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Good QBs don't need the perfect fit
you’ve been dealing with Alex Smith for too long.
by salary_cap on Jan 3, 2012 11:50 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Kaepernick has had a few regular season snaps and you are writing him off
Which is not only ignorant but naive as well…
We spent a 36th overall pick on him. Get over it… he is not going anywhere.
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Manning and Kaepernick
Are not mutually exclusive. No way CK goes anywhere whatever QB move the 49ers decide on.
by David Fucillo on Jan 3, 2012 11:58 AM PST up reply actions
Exactly...
But to write him off is just absurd.
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Nobody is writing off Kaepernick
We just aren’t ready to anointing him.
by asmithisaverage on Jan 3, 2012 12:05 PM PST up reply actions
No salary_cap has been writing him off since he was drafted.
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
that's true
I’m not saying cut him. STick with him as long as its feasible. Give him every opportunity and all efforts to succeed. I just don’t think he will be a starter in the league.
Once again...
Based on nothing… but simple hatred for anyone who wears the red and gold.
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I have no problem with your opinion he will be a bust.
You are entitled to it and I’ve seen you actually back that up with your feelings on his mechanics and the system he came from at Nevada. They are valid concerns.
People do this with players all the time.
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
Well you are anointing him the QB after Alex Smith
I think we can do better even if it takes cap space.
by asmithisaverage on Jan 3, 2012 12:22 PM PST up reply actions
Where did I anoint him?
Show me… please show me…
I’ve said it a thousand times… he has potential or the 49ers would not have drafted him… nobody can say for sure if he will bust or if he will be the next Steve Young… NOBODY.
And that is all I have ever said.
Get it straight.
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Essentially you are making a 1000 posts that say nothing?
I guess I am not surprised. /hyperventilates.
by asmithisaverage on Jan 3, 2012 12:27 PM PST up reply actions
Oh ...
I say plenty…
A lot more than just Alex Smith sucks… or the 49ers are overrated… that’s for certain.
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I’m sure you haven’t… to consumed with the whole “Alex Smith sucks” thing to talk about anything else Niners related.
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there isn't a bigger more pressing issue for the team
Can our offense move the ball and put up points when our defense is unable to carry us? We faced that reality week 2 & 12 and almost had to confront it again last week.
by asmithisaverage on Jan 3, 2012 12:44 PM PST up reply actions
We’ve scored 6 TD’s in our last 9 visits..
Yeah we had a bit of slump there, but seems as though they’ve been working on getting it better.
Alex Smith and the offense has been going up our “elite” starting defense in practice … and been doing well.
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Alex Smith and the offense has been going up our "elite" starting defense in practice … and been doing well.
our “Pro Bowl” QB doing well in practice?…that made me chuckle. So this is the kind of evidence you like?
Did you miss the first part of that statement… or just prefer to cherry pick different parts of people’s comments that are not the premise?
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True, but...
If you put Manning behind our line, with as immobile as he is. on top of that neck issues…he will be a paralyzed has-been by the years end.
by Chaotic9erFan on Jan 3, 2012 11:52 AM PST up reply actions
Yeah… it’s not realistic … AT ALL.
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Yes, they do.
Manning is not going to work in the 49ers offense.
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If you bring Manning in, you give him the keys to the offense and he's your de facto OC.
If you don’t want to do that, don’t bring him in.
I don’t feel like he’s a great fit with the rest of our offensive players, but he’d still be likely to be an upgrade over Alex Smith. For how long, though? Until a strong sack reinjures his neck? For a season or two before the inevitable decline?
Manning and B Marshall
with that O-Line, and Reggie Bush would be deadly.
"I hate it! It looks like a stickup at 7-Eleven. Five guys standing there with their hands in the air."
Norm Sloan
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors."
Weldon Drew
Scary yes
But not probable given the money invested in Kolb and the amount Manning will demand.
by IHavIssues on Jan 3, 2012 4:41 PM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
If the Colts cut Manning, I’d imagine they know something about his neck that isn’t good.
I can’t see them cutting him if they think his health is anything north of fair.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Jan 3, 2012 11:14 AM PST up reply actions
Especially with a new GM. It would take more gumption than your average bear to step into a job and then make your first order of business getting rid of the greatest player in team history.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Jan 3, 2012 11:15 AM PST up reply actions
Should say “one of the greatest players”. I’d have to think that through more to be so final.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Jan 3, 2012 11:15 AM PST up reply actions
I don't think it'd take much gumption.
This is one of those situations where the owner already knows which direction they’re going. Irsay is going to hire a new GM based upon them telling him what he wants to hear. The gumption is Irsay’s either way. ( same thing with the Rams, they’re not going to hire someone who doesn’t state that Bradford is the future )
The question is whether Irsay is ready to move on with whatever the risk is. He paid Peyton 26m this year largely because he had to and they have the emotional attachment.
Of course he also just fired the long-term GM, signaling a move forward. They have the 1st pick and they are going to take Luck, signaling a move forward. Two of their best remaining players are free agents ( Mathis and Wayne ). There’s a lot of evidence that moving on right now is the time to move on. Rather than waiting a year, blowing 28m on Manning and trying to make short-term decisions to try to win another super bowl with him rather than all long-term moves.
Draft: 1. Kendall Wright 2. Trumaine Johnson
FA: Smith, Morgan, Brooks, Rogers, Snyder
by whistlingmountain on Jan 3, 2012 11:24 AM PST up reply actions
But here's the thing...
…if your alternative is cutting Manning and picking Luck, vs. keeping Manning and trading the #1 pick for a bunch of picks, doesn’t a team with as many needs as the Colts prefer the picks? If they play their cards right, they could still end up with RG3.
To prefer picks you need to know what to do with them.
Not exactly Colt’s strength.
hasn't been chosen yet
just know their old GM was fired.
It seems
Irsay wants to be GM… Hello Jerry 2.0
why not keep Manning
and draft luck? make luck sit for the first year behind Manning and then put him out there. Seems like a winning situation to me.
But if the team can't resign Mathis and Wayne they will not be good.
With or without Manning. I think they need to move one of them and get as much as they possibly can in return. Having to sit one of their prime assets and so much money tied up will hamper them in the short and long term.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
Tom Brady is still a stud without Randy Moss
HoF QBs bring WRs up to their level.
by asmithisaverage on Jan 3, 2012 11:40 AM PST up reply actions
I'm more worried about the defense.
And the time it will take Manning to get back in rhythm after a whole year off. I don’t think the team is very good, for obvious reasons.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
He is not as studly with a Moss that cared about playing.
When Moss checked out mentally, the numbers dropped dramatically.
"What the hell are you mixing in that look-aid"
not really
This year Brady threw the second-most yards passing ever with 5,235.
by asmithisaverage on Jan 3, 2012 11:53 AM PST up reply actions
Brady had more TDs this year than the last three years previous
but I guess that is your point. I still say the Patriots are just as good offensively now than they have been the last five years, but their defense is just abysmal.
by asmithisaverage on Jan 3, 2012 12:09 PM PST up reply actions
they likely will, out of emotion
but I think it’s 50/50
Still comes down to the fact that if they re-sign Manning, it will be based on the desire to put a super bowl run together for the next 2-3 years. Which might be impossible and also work against producing a winner for Luck’s years 3-10
Draft: 1. Kendall Wright 2. Trumaine Johnson
FA: Smith, Morgan, Brooks, Rogers, Snyder
by whistlingmountain on Jan 3, 2012 11:38 AM PST up reply actions
I think money is the problem
It’s hard to justify the salary for two #1 picks at the same position when you have so many needs.
Luck's money isn't the issue, #1 pick isn't overpaid anymore
It’s Manning’s money vs re-signing guys and trying to immediately repair a broken roster with FAs or rookies with no experience and plenty of bust potential.
Draft: 1. Kendall Wright 2. Trumaine Johnson
FA: Smith, Morgan, Brooks, Rogers, Snyder
by whistlingmountain on Jan 3, 2012 11:43 AM PST up reply actions
Yeah, I don’t see any reason why the Colts wouldn’t be thrilled to put the “Aaron Rodgers sat for a few years and check that out” card to the media and the fans while they sit fat and happy with two quarterbacks that they should expect to keep them competitive for the next fifteen years. The rookie cap should make it affordable, too.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Jan 3, 2012 11:54 AM PST up reply actions
I think the problem will be the lack of talent surrounding them.
They have two assets which could be used to help rebuild that team, and keeping on to both will mean they can’t upgrade at other positions. Even if they cut Manning instead of trading him, that 28 million in cap space can be used in a variety of other places of need. They desperately need upgrades throughout that team.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
I think you move forward with this plan:
1) Peyton Manning can singlehandedly keep our awful team competitive right now, like he has for the past few years.
2) The new GM has the last of the Peyton Manning years to make the team good enough for Luck.
3) Profit.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Jan 3, 2012 12:10 PM PST up reply actions
I mean, Peyton Manning in that division will keep the team interesting for a few years almost regardless of his surrounding talent. If the new GM can’t replenish enough talent during that time to put Luck in a favorable situation, that’s a failing that I consider to be independent of the situation.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Jan 3, 2012 12:12 PM PST up reply actions
So draft Luck, keep Manning.
Manning is healthy, he plays next season. Wait, he’ll be playing the year after that, and the year after that too. Keep Luck on the bench for up to 4 years? Either that, or you have to make a decision to get rid of one. Luck isn’t Rodgers. He is ready to play from day one, and every day on the bench is a day lost for a high talent QB.
If the Colts start the “Keep Manning and Luck”, let’s see how long it is before the “I’m not playing for the Colts, send me to Denver” talk starts.
Maybe they restructure his deal?
extrabaggs
"Just your typical Giants scoring rally: A faceburger on the basepaths, two errors from the second baseman and a bases-loaded balk."
by Badly Browned on Jan 3, 2012 2:26 PM PST up reply actions
There are no guarantees on Manning’s health, though. Expecting him to be in good health next season is one thing. Expecting him to do it until he’s 40 is betting against history. A best-case scenario is that they’re set at the position for the next 15 years. A worst-case scenario is that they trade Luck for an incredible package three years from now. That’s a really positive worst-case scenario.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Jan 3, 2012 2:16 PM PST up reply actions
No
but Manning’s neck prob is the first real injury he has ever had. The way he plays he doesn’t take a lot of hits. Favre got to his consecutive start number but gutting it out and using his physical abilities; Manning got to his through smart play, getting rid of the ball quickly, avoiding hits. If he makes a full recovery, I won’t be surprised to see him playing till he is 40.
Manning has done a lot of things against history.
A neck injury that takes multiple surgeries and more than a full season to heal seems like kind of an alarming red flag, though. Sure, you take the risk on it, because the upside is Peyton Manning. But I don’t see how you turn down the chance to protect yourself so thoroughly against the risk, either.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Jan 3, 2012 2:55 PM PST up reply actions
My point is
if you draft Luck and sit him, it’s possible he may be sitting a long time. If Luck sits one year, he may sit four. Why anyone thinks Luck will sit for a while, then Manning, if healthy, just magically turn the team over to Luck.
If it were my choice, make the change now.
And my response to that is the same as it was before. If the situation ends up being such that Luck will sit too long to be manageable, he’s an extraordinarily valuable trade chip.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Jan 3, 2012 6:06 PM PST up reply actions
I don't know if that logic follows.
Why can’t you release/trade Peyton a year from now just as easily as you can now? Heck, his value in a trade could well be higher if the neck looks good.
There's simply no way they're passing on Luck
Write it down now and start thinking about the other scenarios. Like how do they spend their money, who do they retain, what do they consider their short and long term plans. Do they resign their guys, do they sign big free agents in their late 20’s early 30’s? What is their plan to both prepare a future for Luck AND produce a short-term set of super bowl runs for Manning.
My guess is that they’ll try their best to do both, and fail at both.
Draft: 1. Kendall Wright 2. Trumaine Johnson
FA: Smith, Morgan, Brooks, Rogers, Snyder
by whistlingmountain on Jan 3, 2012 11:40 AM PST up reply actions
Read Rumors that they are going after Jeff Fisher
If thats true, Jeff Fisher is going to take his team in a whole new direction with a Run first type team. Who in College is coming from a system that is a run first team team, and is Pro ready right now…
"I hate it! It looks like a stickup at 7-Eleven. Five guys standing there with their hands in the air."
Norm Sloan
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors."
Weldon Drew
They can do that with both Peyton and Luck
it’s more about all of the other moves they’ll be making if they keep Peyton.
Draft: 1. Kendall Wright 2. Trumaine Johnson
FA: Smith, Morgan, Brooks, Rogers, Snyder
by whistlingmountain on Jan 3, 2012 11:41 AM PST up reply actions
I can see that
Have Peyton burn for a couple of years until they get the Line situated, and the pieces in the backfield then give the reigns to Luck
"I hate it! It looks like a stickup at 7-Eleven. Five guys standing there with their hands in the air."
Norm Sloan
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors."
Weldon Drew
I can
if they cut him it could be more about weighing the risk of keeping him AT HIS CURRENT PRICE TAG, rather than it being purely and only about his neck.
You are forgetting something
There is no guarantee that Manning would ever be able to play again. He’s had two recent surgeries and I believe a previous one as well. Reason he did not play this year is because his nerve endings did not regenerate enough for him to play. Say they do what I’d he looses his strength again he will most certainly be done along with all the money invested in him
by IHavIssues on Jan 3, 2012 4:51 PM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
Flynn
I’m not high on him, but I’m not low either. If we got him I wouldn’t sweat though I would question the contract if its too much. Seems like a good player even without looking at the stats
Its just so hard to say how he will adapt to a new scheme.
And how he will do with different personnel around him. I don’t want to hang all the Niners hopes on him considering the expectations will be so high. If it doesn’t work out, that move could really set the team back.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
I think he's the real deal...
…and wanted the Niners to make a trade for him last offseason. But there’s now so much hype surrounding him, the market will be totally out of whack for his services.
by Bigmouth on Jan 3, 2012 10:56 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
What About Giving Kaepernick & Tolzien A Shot?
These guys might be IT too.
Agent Dunham....Walternate testified that in his universe, AleX Smith is a pro-bowl QB for the Saints, and broke Trent Dilfer's season record of 6000 yards passing. Walter....Thats nice, more LSD please.
They'll get their shots...
…at least Kaepernick will.
BTW, I just realized your sig’s a Fringe reference, lol. Nice one!
Thx... Is Flynn Actually An UNRestricted Free Agent?
Would probable want to go where he can start.
Agent Dunham....Walternate testified that in his universe, AleX Smith is a pro-bowl QB for the Saints, and broke Trent Dilfer's season record of 6000 yards passing. Walter....Thats nice, more LSD please.
They will both get their shot
Kaepernick was a desperation pick in case Alex Smith performed like he did in 2010. Kaep could be the guy but he wasn’t picked to be the the anointed successor unless he _had _to be in 2011.
by asmithisaverage on Jan 3, 2012 11:43 AM PST up reply actions
Alex has proven enough
That he gets a new contract (likely), and another year as the starter.
If he improves enough to justify it, great, he turns into a good NFL QB.
If he does not, I think Harbaugh knows what he is doing, and Kaepernick will not only start in 2013, he will be GOOD.
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Jan 3, 2012 12:00 PM PST up reply actions
Absolutely, positively agree...
…and note our passing DVOA rank is significantly better than our rushing DVOA rank — precisely the opposite of what I predicted at the start of the year.
I think that DVOA number has a bit to do with playcalling, as well. Since the stat is situational, calling a game that asks your passer to succeed as exclusively as possible in high percentage situations necessarily puts your running game in low percentage situations.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Jan 3, 2012 11:21 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
True...
…but did you think it would be this way at the start of the year? I didn’t and said so very loudly and publicly, lol.
Well, I expected the team to be 8-8 again, so my expectations only count for so much.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Jan 3, 2012 11:55 AM PST up reply actions
The whole question makes me wonder what the last #2 or better seed was to voluntarily not return their starting quarterback the next year.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Jan 3, 2012 11:18 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Ah, but I said #2 or better seed. See, I was being tricky.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Jan 3, 2012 11:55 AM PST up reply actions
Elway Retired
After SB #5
Agent Dunham....Walternate testified that in his universe, AleX Smith is a pro-bowl QB for the Saints, and broke Trent Dilfer's season record of 6000 yards passing. Walter....Thats nice, more LSD please.
That wasn’t the team’s decision, though.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Jan 3, 2012 12:00 PM PST up reply actions
The Bears
…didn’t handle Rex Grossman that way, but they probably should have.
We don't need 8 in the box. We have 52 in the box.
One question I have...
…is whether we should lock up Alex quickly, or whether we should risk seeing how the market values his services.
My suspicion is he won’t get as much interest as his performance this year might otherwise warrant just because he’s been around for a while and the temptation will be to dismiss this as a fluke. In that case, waiting and seeing would be wise.
But I could also see people hyping his improvement to the point that some serious bidders emerge, in which case we’ll end up paying more.
they can wait, but in general they'll have their offer.. Alex will accept it
Draft: 1. Kendall Wright 2. Trumaine Johnson
FA: Smith, Morgan, Brooks, Rogers, Snyder
by whistlingmountain on Jan 3, 2012 11:01 AM PST up reply actions
this is why an unknown like Flynn is worth
more in the open market than Smith, fair or unfair. GMs see 6 years of medicority and 1 year of some heady but not spectacular play from Smith, and see 2 games of intriguing play from Flynn, and they figure they have more evidence that Smith is nothing more than average than Flynn has, because Flynn hasn’t been mediocre for six years. Smith is the safer play, but teams don’t want to invest in a vanilla QB, they rather pay the price to take the chance they get a franchise QB.
not aruging that Flynn is worth more on the market
Teams pay a premium for unknown potential.
Smith is worth more to the 49ers than Flynn. A lot more, because they have Kaepernick, who is also likely worth more to the 49ers than Flynn.
Draft: 1. Kendall Wright 2. Trumaine Johnson
FA: Smith, Morgan, Brooks, Rogers, Snyder
by whistlingmountain on Jan 3, 2012 11:42 AM PST up reply actions
Ooohhhh....
Because 3 whole snaps in the NFL is a large enough sample size to make that determination.
How stupid.
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Um, he's played two full games
and that’s more snaps than Kaep has had. So yeah, Flynn’s extremely small sample size is more than enough to say he is better/more valuable etc. than Kaepernick. There is not one GM who would rather have Kaep than Flynn. Just you and few others here at NN. Just because he wears the niner uni doesn’t mean you have to say crazy things in order to defend him at all costs. Me saying that Flynn is much better than Kaep is not going out on a limb; it’s a rather elementary observation.
Kaep has played how many?
You have no clue how good or bad he is.
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He played well against the Pats last year
when Rodgers was out with concussion and of course this past Sunday. That = more than “a few snaps” bro
You mean when they lost?
I was talking about Kaep… BRO!
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He played decent...
It wasn’t exactly mind-blowing… Smith is capable of Flynn’s same numbers in that game on a worse team ..yet, you still bash him.
Flynn is the equivalent to Kevin Kolb.. how did that work out for the Cards?
Mike Boylan’s logic = Bidwell’s theory of keeping a franchise down for years and years.
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Flynn migh be worse than Smith
yet in his second career start he established himself as an absolute weapon and was a threat in a way Smith has never been in 7 years, so I doubt it. But it’s possible. I see why you see Flynn is equivalent of Kolb. For you it seems once one or two players are overvalued, the same will occur as a matte of principle with other different players in the same situation. If you have insightful analysis as to why Flynn is as medicore as Kolb — mechanics, smarts, tangibles/intangibles etc. (I doubt it) — then I’d be glad to hear it.
Apples to Oranges.
Flynn plays for an established team and has… he’s never faced anything close to the adversity Alex has…
He could be the next Matt Schaub… or he could be the nxt Troy Smith.. but I sure don’t want to give him a $60MM contract to find out he is TroySmith, or worse. That’s horrible logic.
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I'm not against upgrading at the QB position if the price is right
and we wait for the right QB… but I am very much against just bringing in any old schmuck because of some sort of slanted view toward the quarterback situation right now.
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me too
But Flynn and Manning, to me, present themselves as serious upgrades for a team that has a SB ready team in place. So I suggest they explore them.
Flynn is an unknown
And quite frankly, so is Manning… not to mention the system he has played in his entire career resembles nothing close to ours.
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Manning = unknown?
Manning = system QB?
Wow.
I think Manning has created the offense he desires the last half decade, pretty much calling audibles and being the default O coordiantor on the field.
Manning = unknown.
Health wise… not talent wise….
And yes, Manning to an extent is a system quarterback… he is the best in the history of the game at audibling, yes… but that does not mean that behind our Oline, and under the current system that he could do the roll outs and sprints that this offense requires.
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Nope.
Tom Brady would be great in our system.
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He is actually more mobile than Manning.
The Pats do run some roll out plays… I’ve seen it.
Colts, not so much.
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I still think Carmazzi was the better choice
stand by your choice . . . even to the bitter end
system QB
He didn’t say Manning is a “system QB.” He said the systems are different. You wonder why you two get into it and it’s when either of you mischaracterizes the other’s argument.
by David Fucillo on Jan 3, 2012 1:18 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
that is the least of
our micommunications….
And he argued that Manning wouldn’t be successful in our “system”. When you say that about a HOF QB, you are saing his is a system QB, along with saying that you have jumped off the deep end.
both of you...
have this serious problem with adding in personal insults about the other person. What’s the deal with that? It’s childish behavior.
by David Fucillo on Jan 3, 2012 1:23 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
So the Colts don't spread it out and barely run the ball?
Noted.
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This
We can worry about the small picture stuff or focus on the one move that can propel this franchise into a new generation of glory.
by asmithisaverage on Jan 3, 2012 12:49 PM PST up reply actions
A 36 year old QB with a broken neck?
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Exaggeration from me obviously.
But it was to illustrate a very concerning point.
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You hope.
Let’s just pray that Peyton doesn’t end up like another former Colt with a Super Bowl ring – Johnny Unitas, who was supposed to lead the Chargers to glory. Heck, let’s just pray that Peyton will be able to get up after the first time his head slams against the turf.
Our defense is mind boggling good
we still lose when our offense sputters out.
by asmithisaverage on Jan 3, 2012 1:10 PM PST up reply actions
Exploring them is fine.
But I feel that both will be far too expensive for the Niners to sign when both have question marks.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
Flynn is Matt Cassel part two
Flynn has done something Rodgers had never done in Green Bays history. What does that say about the system, and players hes throwing to?
"I hate it! It looks like a stickup at 7-Eleven. Five guys standing there with their hands in the air."
Norm Sloan
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors."
Weldon Drew
this
Flynn > Rodgers
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Jan 3, 2012 11:59 AM PST up reply actions
Cassel is a capable starter in the NFL
so I think lots of teams would be satisfied with that. I actually think Flynn could be better though.
Flynn better than Rodgers........U CRAZY
"I hate it! It looks like a stickup at 7-Eleven. Five guys standing there with their hands in the air."
Norm Sloan
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors."
Weldon Drew
He was saying Flynn better than Cassel.
Or at least I hope so.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
by Joshuahss on Jan 3, 2012 12:07 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
The problem is
And this is the point I think Drew was trying to make above: Even if you have seen enough of Flynn to have a realistic assessment (debatable), NO ONE has seen enough of Kaepernick to have a realistic assessment. He is absolutely an unknown, and that’s not really an arguable point.
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Jan 3, 2012 12:03 PM PST up reply actions
Right
but Flynn is the same except he has an NFL skill set with 2 full games of reference, along with many preseason games. You can’t prop up Kaep by saying he hasn’t played in the same breath you shoot down Flynn because he hasn’t played. It doesn’t make any sense.
Harbaugh would not have spent
a second round pick on Kaep if he didn’t think he had an NFL skill set.
And, I suspect he knows more about NFL quarterbacking than either of us.
Flynn has NOT played enough for a responsible team to sign him to big money. However, some team will- it’s amazing what a small sample size (of good performance) can do for you in a QB-desperate league.
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Jan 3, 2012 12:19 PM PST up reply actions
It makes sense when you think of the contract Flynn will get.
The point is we have CK on the roster for cheap and the coaches have had a full year to evaluate him while he learns the system. Flynn will have to go to a new system for a lot of money. Thus our unknown quantity is more valuable than Flynn to the Niners.
If Harbaugh decides to go after Flynn I’d have no problem with it, but I don’t think it is likely.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
Alex is also a capable QB 13-3
by IHavIssues on Jan 3, 2012 5:08 PM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
what the heck does it matter what I've seen?
It only matters what he 49ers coaching staff has seen, and they see a whole lot more of Kaepernick than they’ve seen of Flynn. They see Kaepernick every day.
Draft: 1. Kendall Wright 2. Trumaine Johnson
FA: Smith, Morgan, Brooks, Rogers, Snyder
by whistlingmountain on Jan 3, 2012 2:54 PM PST up reply actions
Don't have to
You don’t know what Kaepernick can do compared to Flynn. Flynn is an unknown to us as us Kaepernick but the coaching staff knows what we have in Colin so why gamble on the next Kolb or Cassell when we have Smith who has proven adequate in this system while Coach grooms Colin just like the Packers did with Rogers. FYI Rogers wasn’t as good back then as he is now the coach stated that they completely remade his throwing motion and footwork over the three years he sat.
by IHavIssues on Jan 3, 2012 5:06 PM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
I think you are overvaluing Kaep
we traded up for him just to make sure we got a QB in case Alex Smith tanked this season. It wasn’t because he was a 90% sure thing, it was because he was the last QB left to fit the Harbaugh mold.
I don’t know how Harbaugh would rate Flynn, but one would have to imagine Flynn has more value than Kaepernick right now.
by asmithisaverage on Jan 3, 2012 11:49 AM PST up reply actions
You are talking about who you think is better. He’s talking about most value to the 49ers at this point. You aren’t understanding.
Kaep is on the team, Harbaugh has seen him practice all year long. Flynn is going to be overpaid no matter where he goes. Therefore Kaep is more valuable. Value is not the same as being a better player (which no one really knows anyway)…
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
I understand
however you are overrating actual production vs attending team meetings. Flynn will probably get an off-season jackpot but it doesn’t mean is overvalued.
by asmithisaverage on Jan 3, 2012 11:59 AM PST up reply actions
You clearly don't.
It has absolutely nothing to with any sort of production. It is specific to the 49ers.
Keeping Kaep and continuing his development is much more valuable than going after the hottest FA QB and giving him an absurd contract. It is simply economics.
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
You're being silly
if Flynn plays to his future contract he would be far more valuable than Kaep and Alex Smith combined.
by asmithisaverage on Jan 3, 2012 12:13 PM PST up reply actions
Of course
That isn’t the point. There is no ‘if.’
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
Well there is an 'if'
so I guess I win.
by asmithisaverage on Jan 3, 2012 12:24 PM PST up reply actions
the problem is that the issue is current value, not future
which is why if’s don’t really matter. Your refers to a potential scenario that may or may not come true. Given that both QBs have good potential, the one that will cost them less has more value to them currently.
Flynn has higher current and future value
by asmithisaverage on Jan 4, 2012 12:21 PM PST up reply actions
I think it's hard to know what Flynn's real value is.
He’s a big risk. We’ve seen this recipe before: sub for a superstar QB looks good in a small sample size, signs giant contact … ends up mediocre.
No he isn't.
The problem is not knowing if Flynn will play up to his contract. That is a big risk for a team with high expectations. Spending that much on an unknown will hamper the team in other areas while keeping Kaep and letting him develop will not.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
you're willing to trade time for money
and I willing to trade money for time. Why am I right? Because we have the defense that can carry us to the playoffs. We just need the QB who can will us to Superbowl. Two years from now we won’t have that option.
by asmithisaverage on Jan 3, 2012 12:32 PM PST up reply actions
Derek Anderson and Keving Kolb ...among others...are plenty of reason to be
“Patient” for the right QB to lead this team… not just buy everything up in every fire sale each season.
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But if Flynn comes and is terrible then it sets the team back.
If he posts Kevin Kolb-type numbers then the team is far worse off than sticking with the Alex Smith and seeing if CK can develop. Smith is far more of a known commodity in Harbaugh’s offense.
You are shooting high risk-high reward while I prefer that they play in conservative at this point.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
Flynn is better than Kolb, not that I want him. But please remember me saying he will be a good QB.
"What the hell are you mixing in that look-aid"
I don't think he will be.
But I don’t consider it out of the realm of possibility. If its me, I’m not paying him what he will likely get.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
The nice thing is we don't need to pay for top WRs if we keep Alex Smith
Not that any top tier WR would want AS throwing to him. Keeping Alex Smith is like a double-cost saver.
by asmithisaverage on Jan 3, 2012 12:46 PM PST up reply actions
Must be why our WR's have been quitting at the end of routes, right?
Because Alex Smith sucks and there’s no reason to be a pro with him at the helm…
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I hadn't noticed the giving up
I have noticed the WR drops though. But just as unforgivable have been all the misses of wide open receivers and inability to throw a decent screen pass.
by asmithisaverage on Jan 3, 2012 12:50 PM PST up reply actions
They have been… and they’ve been dropping passes too like you mention… but I suppose that’s on the QB.
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Nope
just the wide open misses and inability to throw a screen pass are on the QB.
by asmithisaverage on Jan 3, 2012 1:12 PM PST up reply actions
Smith's already admitting and addressed throwing the ball away
when nobody is open… how is that a bad thing again?
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i'll give you a second chance to show off your reading comprehension
by asmithisaverage on Jan 3, 2012 1:29 PM PST up reply actions
seriously?
Snide comments are really getting old from everybody here.
by David Fucillo on Jan 3, 2012 1:31 PM PST up reply actions
“wide open misses” was what was being addressed.
And you must mean the screen passes that have been hitting Gore in the hands all year and bouncing off… yeah, those ones?
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nope…. you clearly are living in a cloud of delusion.
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We could have got another quarterback in free agency but WE DID NOT.
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Who?
No we didn’t… we targeted Kaepernick and got Kaepernick.
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I'd have to look for it, it was in one of the coach's notebooks, I'd honestly rather not look.
"What the hell are you mixing in that look-aid"
I remember the media saying things about it...
Harbaugh would never say that… not his style.
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They asked him about it and he acknowledged it and also went right back to his style as we brought him in to compete for a job and ot take the job.
"What the hell are you mixing in that look-aid"
I don’t believe that… I would have to see proof of that lott
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Ok Drew don't believe because I am not going diving into all of his interviews to find it because you refuse to believe it.
It was early in the season, you can find it just fine.
"What the hell are you mixing in that look-aid"
Harbaugh just would never confirm something like that.
That’s why I said it was the media… not Harbs
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there were numerous reports about it
that came from FO sources. It was everwhere: ESPN, etc. They met with him if I’m not mistaken. I know it might shake you that Harbaugh wanted insurance on Smith.
“FO Sources”
Who were they… who are all these mysterious “FO Sources” that ESPN always references?
Please.
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Faulty evidence... or flimsy evidence
has it’s benefits I suppose for those of you who hate Alex Smith.
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Hasselbeck went in for a visit, which would garnish a look from who?
Does Baalke get to bring in a QB without Harbaugh’s knowledge or okay?
"What the hell are you mixing in that look-aid"
this will not move him
rlott#42. But all this is very amusing for others to watch. Like when a dudes on the show Cheaters deny they have been having affairs right after being shown a video tape of them mixing it up with another woman. You just kind of do a face palm and just laugh it off.
Since when does
“talked to” equal “brought in for a meeting”.
“talked to” could simply mean that his agent “talked to” them asking them if they were interested.
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According to sources with ESPN, “Hasselbeck has talked to the Tennessee Titans and San Francisco 49ers, among other teams, since the lockout ended.”
That’s it.
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What's more telling is your refusal
to accept this info. You go out of your way to assert that this isn’t the case, when all evidence and common sense suggest that it is all but certain. Others would accept the reality that this happened, but you don’t for some reason.
My evidence.
Hasselbeck being signed to the Titans. We obviously were not that enticed or intrigued to “upgrade” and stuck with Smith.
If there was interest, it was very “mild interest”… as evidence of him NOT wearing the red and gold.
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translation if you read it all
Hey Hasselbeck, if nobody offers you a starting job, you can ride the pine and mentor our QBs for a small contract.
Far different than we’re really interested in making you our starter
they maybe offered him to be
the backup or offered him to compete for starting job. Either way its sincere interest.
So far it's only been a couple
with zero linkage to confirm our F.O. was indeed interested.
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Didn't Hasselback himself recently confirm the 'niners talked to him?
And by the way, I’m an Alex supporter saying this, so…
It doesn't matter
everyone but Drew is aware we tried to upgrade over Alex Smith despite having a public love affair with him. The compressed off season didn’t help.
by asmithisaverage on Jan 3, 2012 12:00 PM PST up reply actions
It may or may not have been an upgrade.
He didn’t arrive so that isn’t a firm point to stand on
"What the hell are you mixing in that look-aid"
Yet… nobody has a link… Speculation was made about Hasselbeck and that’s about where the buck stopped.
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not Harbaugh saying it
But Hasselbeck saying it
by David Fucillo on Jan 3, 2012 12:00 PM PST up reply actions
Of course...
He was trying to get paid and go to a NFCW team…
Good strategy by his agent… but it doesn’t confirm we were interested for sure or not.
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second link
He said this after he got paid. It had no bearing on any contract he had already received.
by David Fucillo on Jan 3, 2012 12:04 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, seriously.
Niners probably snubbed him. There is nothing coming from our F.O., or organization to confirm any of that.
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Hasselbeck said it himself.
It’s not rock solid evidence.
Nobody… STILL has provided anything coming from our F.O. or HC… Their typical answer most of the time was: “We are always looking to get better at all positions.”
Not really any kind of confirmation.
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Good for you.
Maybe I can make you hyperventilate.
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I wish I had your mind reading powers
extrabaggs
"Just your typical Giants scoring rally: A faceburger on the basepaths, two errors from the second baseman and a bases-loaded balk."
by Badly Browned on Jan 3, 2012 12:13 PM PST up reply actions
Not mind reading...
Simple understanding of how business works.
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Story was on SFGate
“My decision came down to San Francisco or Tennessee," Hasselbeck said. "At the end of the day, that was my decision, and San Fran would have been attractive for a whole bunch of reasons … but at the end of the day, I think my conversation with (Munchak) and the offensive line here and a lot of stuff … just felt really good about it.”
hasselbeck
He doesn’t believe Hasselbeck (see above).
by David Fucillo on Jan 3, 2012 12:09 PM PST up reply actions
Sounds like he got snubbed and on our side there may have been
mild to zero interest…
Of course that’s speculation… but you know.. it’s a business and Hass knows how the game works.
If one team is interested, you ALWAYS act like there is more than that.
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My guess
They made an offer and told him he would have to compete for the starting job. Tennessee probably told him he would be the number one guy. The End.
I'm in love with a man. A man called Harbaugh. Does that make me gay? Am I gay for Harbaugh? You betcha!
by Haggardninja on Jan 3, 2012 12:28 PM PST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Maybe... maybe not.
Point is.. nobody knows for sure what happened with that because there was never any elaboration.. or anything from our F.O. confirming they were indeed interested.
Hasselbeck may have wanted S.F. but that doesn’t = S.F. wanted him…
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Kinda agree with Drew
This whole tangent started by people saying Harbaugh expressed interest when he didn’t. It all came from hasselbeck. If this were somebody like T.O. saying it, everybody would agree it was nonsense and we were never interested without an actual statement from the FO. I think the closest thing Harbaugh ever mentioned to upgrading the position was along the lines of they would get the best three guys they could and the best of those would start. There was never any real doubt it would be alex after the media lovefest Harbs displayed for him.
WWJHD?
I don't see any reason to doubt Hasselbeck
He comes across as a pretty reliable source to me, and I just don’t see any reason for him to make it up.
Plus, why would he want to go to SF so badly? At the beginning of the year, I wouldn’t have said it to be the most desirable job. Not that it was horrible either, but I’m just saying….
And if he did...
He would likely have been injured pretty early on. Our O-Line had some serious issues the first several games.
by ColoradoNiner on Jan 3, 2012 10:40 PM PST up reply actions
happy we didnt
Personally I’m very glad we didn’t get him. I’ve always thought he was a little overrated and that was before he was old and injured
by texasniner31 on Jan 4, 2012 8:29 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
I was pretty glad that didn’t happen, and I remain glad.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Jan 3, 2012 11:59 AM PST up reply actions
Well he thinks Kaepernick is a bust, soooo......
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he's not a bust
he hasn’t played enough (or at all) to be a bust…I’m saying he’s not good and probably never will be.
so....
they traded up in the second round to get a guy who you think will not amount to anything in the NFL. How is that not the definition of a bust?
by David Fucillo on Jan 3, 2012 12:02 PM PST up reply actions
he's not a bust right now
He’s not anything right now. yes, I think he will be a bust in the future.
He can't be a bust in the future without being a bust now.
He either is or isn’t. I have my doubts about him being a star or the QBOF but he may turn out decent. Doesnt mean he’s a bust. I love Alex for a myriad of reasons but right now I don’t think he’s a star or bust either. He’s a better Trent Dilfer who can make big throws when he’s asked to I still think he’s yet to hit his ceiling with this offense.
WWJHD?
they do it all the time
Where’s Jimmy clausen?
by texasniner31 on Jan 4, 2012 8:31 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
how could anybody want Kaep
over an experienced but still young NFL QB who has at least had a little bit of success.
Have niner fans never seen Nevada play last year or Kaep this preseason?
Me, too...
…and he’s looked promising in very limited regular-season playing time. Much better than the pre-season.
Did you watch the team play in the pre season
Everybody looked like trash
"I hate it! It looks like a stickup at 7-Eleven. Five guys standing there with their hands in the air."
Norm Sloan
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors."
Weldon Drew
There are a ton of examples of hot young QBs with a little success
who have not panned out. Spending big money on an unknown is a decision which should not be made unless the team is certain it will work out.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
many times on this site
I’ve seen and heard ridiculous comments about whose the better qb going way back for years with players, like j.t. o Sullivan, nate Davis, Troy Smith and the like, all of whom I think Alex Smith is leagues and away better than, but several people here were adamant they should start for the team. My point is none of us here are talent scouts and I think its crazy arguing about kaep and whoever, because I believe you are all missing the point. With every team they are going to put the best player on the field, and clearly its Alex and just from what I’m getting from harbaugh I don’t think kaep is gonna be the answer either. It was a new regime, and I think harbaugh would have started him if he thought he was the answer experience or not. And now he has openly stated that they want Alex back, that’s even further indictment that kaep is probably not going to be the future. I love Alex, and I always have. He’s got an extremely bad shake from several bad ccoaching staffs, so I don’t care whose the backup but I think that if harbaugh had a player on the bench who was younger and showed more promise, that he would would have him playing. He seems like a pretty confident Guy, and sitting Kaep for a year to learn doesn’t make sense. We were supposed to be horrible so why not get him experience. Either way why argue, he’s not playing now and he wont be next season either
by texasniner31 on Jan 4, 2012 8:51 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
or traded for someone
all of which would have been a better idea than drafting a pistol pseudo-QB to be the no. 2 QB this year. Imagine Smith going down and Kaep playing this postseason. I can’t, cause it makes me dry heave.
Who realistically thought we would go 13-3
This year us gravy we should not have been this good this fast. With the lockout and new system being brought in. But as we all felt for years that with the right leadership we can contend and we have. Albeit doing so by playing conservatively. Give us a full off season and I believe the results will change for the better.
by IHavIssues on Jan 3, 2012 5:19 PM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
The pickings were slim and we tried anyway
by asmithisaverage on Jan 3, 2012 11:55 AM PST up reply actions
Akers And Lee Are Back-Ups
Best 49er QB’s in the red zone!!!
Agent Dunham....Walternate testified that in his universe, AleX Smith is a pro-bowl QB for the Saints, and broke Trent Dilfer's season record of 6000 yards passing. Walter....Thats nice, more LSD please.
this
I’ve read that the niners wanted Dalton, but when he went in the 2nd rd. the Niners felt they needed to get one of the guys they wanted right then because they knew they had to draft someone, and they didn’t want to be stuck with a guy they really didn’t like. They took a gamble. Considering his learning curve, it will be a while before we find out.
They needed a QB because the only player under contract at the time of the draft was David Carr.
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
that's what I said
but even with drafting Kaep, I don’t know why we don’t get a vet to be our no. 2 for this year at least.
Its because Harbaugh loves Scott Tolzien
And the vet on the roster was Alex Smith.
by asmithisaverage on Jan 3, 2012 12:03 PM PST up reply actions
regardless of who the starter is
seems to me, if you’re trying to win something now, you’re no. 2 backup can’t be a rookie project.
Oh...
But that’s smoke in mirrors…
Same ol’ – Same ol’
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what does record have anything to do with it?
If Smith had gotten hurt on his 40 sacks and numerous hits, or if he does get hurt in the playoffs (oh god!!!), it will be unveiled to be a dumb move. Even if Smith gets hurt, if you are trying to win now, its poor roster management to have a rookie project as your backup. And with this O Line, which Drew even thinks to be trash, hence partly why he doesn’t want Manning, a future HOF.
Not many teams in the league would be in very good shape in the playoffs if their starter goes down.
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
Have there been any teams that won with their backup QB?
extrabaggs
"Just your typical Giants scoring rally: A faceburger on the basepaths, two errors from the second baseman and a bases-loaded balk."
by Badly Browned on Jan 3, 2012 12:22 PM PST up reply actions
Ah the 1990 Giants...
Forgot about them
extrabaggs
"Just your typical Giants scoring rally: A faceburger on the basepaths, two errors from the second baseman and a bases-loaded balk."
by Badly Browned on Jan 3, 2012 12:23 PM PST up reply actions
In my defense
I was 1 year old lol
extrabaggs
"Just your typical Giants scoring rally: A faceburger on the basepaths, two errors from the second baseman and a bases-loaded balk."
by Badly Browned on Jan 3, 2012 12:24 PM PST up reply actions
Not an excuse
Begin your mustache-related research with Chester A. Arthur.
And the European royalty of the late 19th century.
http://urbanhonking.com/regarding/files/2011/02/chester_a_arthur.jpg
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Jan 3, 2012 12:38 PM PST up reply actions
Aren’t the 87 Redskins sort of the greatest example?
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Jan 3, 2012 2:57 PM PST up reply actions
More like the Ravens
There starter was awful to begin with.
Come to think of it, Sims was considered a liability in ‘90 but I don’t recall why.
Makes you wonder how good the Saints would be with Chase Daniel...
…who played in a predominantly spread offense at Missouri…as their QB if Brees goes down. And what about Brian Hoyer? Or Chris Redman?
Not every team has a Flynn (who may be good, but is also 2 inches shorter and less athletic than Alex), or a vet like Batch, Shaun Hill or Bruce Gradkowski waiting in the wings. Heck, the Giants have David Carr.
Roll of the dice? Absolutely. But would you have trusted Guy Benjamin to take your team to the Super Bowl? Cause that’s all Walsh had if Montana had gone down in ’81.
Which leads me to the question…what can they do? Which FA QB available right now would you trust to be No. 2 ahead of Kaep?
I actually love Chase Daniel...
…wish the Niners had signed him when he went undrafted, and think he would fill in for Brees just fine.
I've read this too
and no, I don’t have a link, so while I might have hallucinated or dreamed it, I believe this is true.
No, Harbaugh has been instructing Kaepernick personally
all he’s seen of Flynn is what you’ve seen of Flynn
Draft: 1. Kendall Wright 2. Trumaine Johnson
FA: Smith, Morgan, Brooks, Rogers, Snyder
by whistlingmountain on Jan 3, 2012 2:54 PM PST up reply actions
you're making up reasons for their motivation in drafting Kaepernick
you don’t know that they only drafted him because he was the last QB left who fit Harbaugh’s mold. It could very well be that Harbaugh saw something in Kaep and really wanted him.
I don't think its going to get out of hand either way.
And its a huge risk for other teams after seeing how he struggled with so many new systems. But as they say, all it takes is one team.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
You don't want to get into a habit of nickel-and-diming players.
You want players to feel that you’re going to take care of them, that you’re not going to squeeze them for every penny.
Obviously you cant just start driving dump trucks full of money up to player’s houses. But there’s a happy medium. The Niners should be proactive to making an early, fair offer to Smith (and Josh Morgan, too).
by Ronaldinho on Jan 3, 2012 11:10 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I don't see there being much of a market
Smith barely throws for 200 yards a game, can’t throw a good screen pass and more often than he should misses wide-open receivers. There is no way team out there except the 49ers would over pay for his services.
by asmithisaverage on Jan 3, 2012 11:46 AM PST up reply actions
Not Many Ball Control Teams Out There........
That dont already have an average QB.
Agent Dunham....Walternate testified that in his universe, AleX Smith is a pro-bowl QB for the Saints, and broke Trent Dilfer's season record of 6000 yards passing. Walter....Thats nice, more LSD please.
Tricky, miserable journalists trying to trap the man.
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he's like a skilled dancer...
just moving and weaving his way through their tricky questions
by David Fucillo on Jan 3, 2012 11:07 AM PST up reply actions
Coach Harbaugh said he had since he would not say one thing to the media about a player and not say it to the player as well.
This represents so wholly the phase shift this team took between Singletary and Harbaugh that I can’t even properly express it.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
I'm alright with Alex for two more years.
Then we got to give Kaepernick a shot for the future. Unless Alex is a super bowl quarterback of course lolz.
"Hey, the offensive linemen are the biggest guys on the field, they’re bigger than everybody else, and that’s what makes them the biggest guys on the field." ~ John Madden
Maybe depends how much Harbs values ball control
No matter how well Kaep plays preseason, it’s hard to imagine him protecting the ball as well as Alex has shown he can.
Over
by cybermaldonado on Jan 3, 2012 12:01 PM PST up reply actions
just tell kaepernick to throw the ball 20 times a game with 90% of the passes within 5 yards of the LOS and lets see how he really compares to alex
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Jan 3, 2012 12:02 PM PST up reply actions
Because any QB can throw 17 TDs and only 5 picks like that.
While leading the team to a 13-3 record. Give Smith a little credit.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
Smith deserves credit for improving
and becoming more efficient this year, but the defense/ST and Akers leg get the majority of the credit here. Considering the degree of difficulty of Smith’s throws and his reads, throwing any more than 5 picks would be awful.
based on what I saw of him at Nevada, and what I've read of him in practice
I think he wouldn’t compare favorably. He’s got a rocket arm but little touch, and is not as accurate as Alex, who hasn’t been that accurate to begin with. Grant Cohn reported that a few weeks ago. Kaepernick has huge upside but I don’t understand why people think a guy who excelled in the pistol would be even close to NFL ready now. It’s not realistic.
I don't think Kaep could do anything better than Smith
right now. He’s not ready, indeed, which is why he should be the no. 3 QB right now.
i agree.
Tolzien isn’t as physically gifted as Kaepernick, and probably has a lower ceiling, but he’s more NFL ready based on the system he played in in Wisconsin.
really?
After signing Smith, he’s handed the job. That’s what $7 mill per means. And what are the odds Kaep outperforms a tortoise, let alone A Smith?
pretty good actually. Very mobile, strong arm, intelligent. More time in the system will only make him better
you really see a scenario where, if, Kaep tears it up in the preseason,
and Smith struggles, that they give the job to Smith after resigning him to a big $$ deal? Really?
yes
One player sucks, the other is good. You really think that the money already spent should influence an entire season? Drew Bledsoe was a franchise QB when Brady came along
Outsiders finally giving Alex Smith some love...?
I was watching NFL Primetime today (on ESPN), and for the first time I can recall, the Niners’ game recap focused on good plays by Alex. Dilfer even threw in a, “most under rated player in the NFL.” comment, which surprised me even when coming from an Alex supporter like Dilfer.
It made me wonder if national perception of Alex Smith is starting to turn. If so, that might be as big an accomplishment by Smith and Harbaugh as getting the Niners to the playoffs was.
Over
dude dilfer just has mad love for average
quarterbacks on teams with epic defenses. Dilfer praising Smith is basically Dilfer praising himself
Harbaughcalypse Now
by dutra on Jan 4, 2012 1:11 AM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
behold our QBOTF
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Jan 3, 2012 11:57 AM PST reply actions
Our third stringer who will be gone in a year or two...
Maybe even next year if we draft another QB.
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He likes him so much that he fills Gatorade buckets as his main job.
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That's what 3rd string QB's do...
unless their name is Nate Davis… then they play DB on the prep squad and is anointed the second coming and savior of the franchise by delusional fans.
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i just wonder what the team would look like if we had a QB harbaugh trusted enough to actually try to score points on his own
most non-49er fans agree we’re a good QB away from possibly REALLY being one of the best teams in the league
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Jan 3, 2012 12:08 PM PST reply actions
I don’t know if you watched the Stanford game last night, but Shaw ran the ball on 3rd and 13 from the 15 or so…Does he not trust Luck?
The conservative style Jim uses clearly goes deeper than not trusting his QB. I’m so tired of this idea.
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
The conservative style Jim uses clearly goes deeper than not trusting his QB. I’m so tired of this idea
Doing this with a Hesiman QB or QB you do trust just means that it’s lousy coaching philosophy to do dumb things like run it on 3rd and goal from 13 when down and need points.
He had an all time great in Luck
And he still chose to be running style team.
"I hate it! It looks like a stickup at 7-Eleven. Five guys standing there with their hands in the air."
Norm Sloan
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors."
Weldon Drew
I think it's more philosophy than trust
The NFL is really a gambling league. Every play is an assessment of risk vs. reward. The biggest example of this is definitely seen when teams use aggressive QB play. Harbaugh is just trying to take a little gamble out of the game to reduce variance.
There is more than one way to skin a cat, or play poker (or win at football).
If you can buy in to believing that Harbs is playing small ball on purpose, then it becomes almost impossible not to start seeing that Alex Smith is doing a brilliant job of running the game that Harbaugh’s philosophy calls for.
Over
by cybermaldonado on Jan 3, 2012 12:22 PM PST up reply actions
the thing is, i dont even mean it has to be “aggressive”
we can still be a run-first team, i just wish harbaugh trusted him enough to put the ball in his hands to put a game away
i understand that he does the conservative runs at the end with the lead because its better than possibly turning it over, i just wish we had a QB that could throw the ball down the field and put the game away by scoring TDs
and its why non-49er fans dont see us as a threat to win the SB, but if we get a good/great QB we’re probably just barely behind the packers and everyone else is far back
great defense + good ST + decent run game + good QB play would be better than basically every team
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Jan 3, 2012 12:26 PM PST up reply actions
But trying to put the game away could also lead to letting a team back in it.
Its a trickier situation than that. How often do you see teams throw the ball and either leave too much time for the opponent to come back, or throw an interception and let the other team back in the game. I think the conservative style is just Harbaugh’s nature.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
I hear what you're saying
This part though I’m not sure about.
and its why non-49er fans dont see us as a threat to win the SB
My perception is that a lot of people think the 49ers can win it all. (Maybe I just watch too much skip Bayless who also thinks Tebow is a great passer.)
It will be interesting to see how the Vegas betting lines start coming down.
Over
by cybermaldonado on Jan 3, 2012 12:33 PM PST up reply actions
the thing is, i dont even mean it has to be "aggressive"
we can still be a run-first team, i just wish harbaugh trusted him enough to put the ball in his hands to put a game away
Yes, you can be aggressive and still be run-first. And maybe putting the ball in Smith’s hands will lead to more negative plays and outcomes. I can live with losing that way, as opposed to losing because we keep giving the other team the ball with a chance to take the lead over and over and over until we officially give the game away.
i understand that he does the conservative runs at the end with the lead because its better than possibly turning it over, i just wish we had a QB that could throw the ball down the field and put the game away by scoring TDs
or throw the ball to get back in the game and take a lead.
and its why non-49er fans dont see us as a threat to win the SB, but if we get a good/great QB we’re probably just barely behind the packers and everyone else is far back
Never understood why some are averse to improving at QB just because we have a great Defense and ST. the Pats aren’t saying to themselves, “we don’t need to improve the defense, we have Tom Brady and our offense is unstoppable!!!”
Never understood why some are averse to improving at QB just because we have a great Defense and ST.
This is what annoys me a lot about some people. They say that “Alex is fine for what our team is suited for, we rely on defense”
Yeah, we rely on defense, but that shouldn’t mean we should be happy with average QB play. If we got a good QB, like non-fans say, we would probably be an NFCCG lock at least for 5 years
Seeing Alex throw the ball <5 yards from the LOS every play, while the few bombs he takes are usually off-target is annoying
I’m not even saying having a QB like Brees or Aaron. Just a good QB who isn’t to their level. Imagine us with Eli Manning, Rivers or someone similar. Where your defense holds the opponent, and the opposing defense has to not only account for Gore/Hunter, but also know that any of our WRs can get a break AND we have a TE like Vernon
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Jan 3, 2012 12:40 PM PST up reply actions
It would seem logical that any QB who throws the ball deep 10-20 times a game is going to be more, “zoned in” on the range than a QB who only throws deep 3-4 times a game. Just saying… I think Alex would be a lot more accurate on long throws if he was throwing more of them.
Not using that as an excuse for what you see as some of Alex’s timid decisions. But, I do think it has merit as a possible reason why he hasn’t shown great accuracy at long range.
Over
by cybermaldonado on Jan 3, 2012 12:48 PM PST up reply actions
The problem is not upgrading the QB.
I’m sure everyone would love to have a better QB on the Niners. But realistically what QB that will be available could definately improve the team next year? That is the issue with letting Smith go and bringing someone else in. There isn’t anyone available who is a surefire bet to be better than the QB currently on the roster. Please tell me who is of Eli or Rivers’ caliber who is out there?
Twitter: @Joshuahss
there might not be a solution out there right now (or there might be in MATT FLYNN)
i think im different from the other people on here because rather than saying “oh well alex isnt that good but hes the best we have so ill just be happy with him”, i say “i just wish he was better, and our lack of offense really worries me”
ive said it before, and i know no one believes me, but i was a staunch smith defender until this season. i said last season was the last straw with the excuses i made for him and that he had the best chance. we saw what happened. so now i will not be supporting him until he shows that he can tkae over a game multiple times
and yes, i understand we’re 13-3 with his play, but i dont attribute him to our record, we got it in spite of him IMO. it isnt hard to not throw INTs when all you do is throw dumpoffs, checkdowns, and passes within 5-10 yards of the LOS
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Jan 3, 2012 12:56 PM PST up reply actions
i just wish he was better, and our lack of offense really worries me
I don’t think I’ve ever seen you say something like this. It is always some over the top sarcastic comment twisting other people’s praise of the team into something that doesn’t resemble anything anyone said.
This is a legitimate concern, the lack of offense should somewhat worry everyone. The problem on this site is usually how people are presenting their opinions not the actual premise of what they are saying.
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
It is always some over the top sarcastic comment twisting other people’s praise of the team into something that doesn’t resemble anything anyone said.
That usually only happens when people make comments, like when Alex has a bad pass and people respond with EVEN BREES AND RODGERS HAVE A BAD PASS SOMETIMES.
I say constantly that it’s the lack of offense that’s the problem. I don’t sit there and never make a good comment. I do when Alex makes a good play, but his bad plays are much more common. Unlike someone like Edggy who I have literally never seen make a bad comment about Smith and who doesn’t say anything if Alex makes a bad play but when he makes one, then he comes in with the sarcastic OH YEAH LOOK HOW BAD ALEX IS, LOL
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Jan 3, 2012 1:06 PM PST up reply actions
I don’t sit there and never make a good comment.
can I get a link to the last positive comment you made about the offense?
i meant during game threads or wherever. you wont see me making long positive comments about how much i love our offense, especially in the postseason, controlled by the guy throwing for 197 yards and 1 TD a game
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Jan 3, 2012 1:12 PM PST up reply actions
have you tried looking at stats before forming an opinion on something?
Smith has 41 passes over 20 yards, good for 19th in the league and he averages 7.1 yards per pass, good for 17th in the league.
It’s not a Brady or Rodgers led offense, but it’s not a dink and dunk offense either
This is where I'm at.
I think some of the concerns are overblown based on past performance. The offense is a relatively average one, and is even slightly above average in scoring points. Looking up some of the stats were rather surprising.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
The offense is a relatively average one, and is even slightly above average in scoring points
See, I recognize this. But when so many of our points come from field goals, it doesn’t give me confidence in the playoffs.
I recognize that we’re a good team and better than probably 26-27 of the 32 teams, but in the playoffs when we could face the likes of NO, GB, DET (yes I know we beat them in detroit, but their offense is very good and games change), field goals likely aren’t going to cut it, and I don’t want to just rely on the defense to hold another team so we can keep kicking field goals
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Jan 3, 2012 1:11 PM PST up reply actions
there might not be one that is feasible
but Manning and Flynn come to mind. Those could prove to be too risky though. If the 49ers really felt they needed to upgrade, they could make it happen. I suspect they are staying the course, though, regardless of what happens this postseason.
I like our stable of QB's
One slow but steady = Alex, A Young Gun needing target practice = Kaep, a talented QB who could really light it up in the future = Tolkien.
But as Paul McCartney said “With a Little Luck….” Now, that would be sweet, trade our backups QB’s + Norris + our next years 1st to Indy.
The TechGuy
Zeolite
hahaha!
I love the idea that Norris has trade value.
I think keeping Smith as a steady starter, and seeing which of our backups blossoms is an excellent idea. Would not be surprised to see both turn into gamers, and then we trade one. I think Smith starts next year, and then after that, may stick with the team, but probably not as a starter.
Luck COULD be great, but I don’t see us mortgaging the future for him.
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Jan 3, 2012 12:17 PM PST up reply actions
Sure
We can trade him for a hot dog
extrabaggs
"Just your typical Giants scoring rally: A faceburger on the basepaths, two errors from the second baseman and a bases-loaded balk."
by Badly Browned on Jan 3, 2012 12:18 PM PST up reply actions
Maybe a Costco hot dog
Those ones at Candlestick cost, like, 7 bucks. Not sure he’s worth that.
On the other hand, if Miller is out for a breather in the NFC championship game, and Norris knocks Clay Matthews out of the game with an ankle injury (by falling in front of him), it will all have been worth it, and we will know that it was Harbaugh’s nefariously brilliant strategy all along…
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Jan 3, 2012 12:27 PM PST up reply actions
Seriously ripping Norris?
He was back in the lineup Sunday and the offense scored 34 points, coincidence think not!
When Tolkien finally breaks through, it’s going to be epic.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Jan 3, 2012 12:23 PM PST up reply actions
Is he going to shoulder a burden for everyone and be sent on a journey to Mordor?
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
He’ll be charged with a three year journey to return the Super Bowl Rings of Power to their rightful home.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Jan 3, 2012 12:27 PM PST up reply actions
I admire the level of faith that fans have in CK7 and Tolkien without them having taken any significant number of snaps in regular season games :)
Didn't you know the backup QB is everyone's favorite player.
Only in SF the 3rd stringer is number 2 in our hearts.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
Has been that way ever since Joe was shown the door.
Even Steve Young was routinely criticized until he won a Super Bowl…
by ColoradoNiner on Jan 3, 2012 10:50 PM PST up reply actions
And then subsequently
for not winning more.
I admit, even I was guilty of it at the time. I grew up on Montana though- that would spoil anyone.
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Jan 4, 2012 12:27 AM PST up reply actions
I may come to enjoy this whole Tolkien thing.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Jan 3, 2012 12:35 PM PST up reply actions
I echo this sentiment.
particularly because of the TYPE of QB Kaep is — unorthodox, unproven in making NFL throws, etc. — as opposed to a 2nd round pick like Dalton, who even if he hadn’t played at all this year, you have a better idea of what he’s about, thus can reasonably assume he could make a positive impact now should the opportunity present itself.
Every year rings in a new Kevin Kolb
This year it’s Matt Flynn. Before Kolb it was Matt Cassel, and before that it was Matt Schaub (may have gotten the timeline a little off). Decent QBs who are overpaid for their services in the FA market.
Schaub is considerably better than Kolb and Cassel.
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
yeah, I'm not questioning the value of Schaub
I just don’t like the idea of overpaying a backup QB in a successful team to become a franchise QB who may not be franchise material, investing a large chunk of money in the process. A Drew Brees comes very, very rarely.
Agree with 2/3
I think Schaub is the most under-appreciated “good” QB in the league. Even if he holds the #10 spot, he is still a top-10 QB.
Had he stayed healthy, I’d bet the Texans as the AFC favorite.
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Jan 3, 2012 12:21 PM PST up reply actions
each QB is a different player and
different assessments. Just becasue lots of QBs have been overvalued based on limited playing time doesn’t in any way make it less plausible that a guy like Flynn or anyone else is gonna suck. I tjust means teams are desperate and overpay for QBs that have show glimpses of potential.
This is why the Niners shouldn't go after him though.
Overpaying for a QB who might be a bust would set the franchise back a bit.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
I think his performance against the Lions put him up too high.
Though if it was a reasonable deal I’d have no problem with the Niners signing him.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
same here.
I feel the niners team record has inflated Smith’s value as well though. It is hard, though, from a PR and culture standpoint, to change QBs after going 13-3.
This is exactly why Alex is coming back
Q. - Whats the worse thing that could happen if you replaced the starting QB of a 13-3 team?
A. - Everybody who’s in charge could get fired.
Way too much downside for the bosses.
"It's impossible to hide the fire inside" - Bob Seger
This is true
Schaub is way under-rated.
"I hate it! It looks like a stickup at 7-Eleven. Five guys standing there with their hands in the air."
Norm Sloan
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors."
Weldon Drew
He reminds me of Romo.
Good numbers, solid regular season QB who can’t get over the hump in crunch time.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
If by hump
you mean season ending injuries and horrendous defenses, then yes.
They lucked out on Schaub... that's all that was...
His numbers were pretty crappy in the three years he played in Atlanta as a back up… he had one okay game in 2005.
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Sometimes you just get lucky... but it's not like it's some high percentage gamble you should take.
Obviously Flynn would be asking for Kolb type money… just really not worth it.
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I would think the opposite
To spot “talent” on a really good team and overpay for it gives you guys like Cassel, and possibly Flynn.
To watch a guy on a bad team, who doesn’t put up great numbers, and still see something there? That takes ability. Maybe the Texans got lucky with Schaub, or maybe they just saw what the rest of the league didn’t.
Is he great? No. Is he good? Most definitely, and that’s enough to keep you competitive in this league.
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Jan 3, 2012 12:33 PM PST up reply actions
How is your argument "for" Alex is number mean nothing, but then you argue numbers to bash another person at the same position.
It wasn’t luck, ball placememnt, poise in the pocket. Some things are glaringly obvious. Rogders had those attributes at Cal, Smith didn’t I wanted Rodgers, we took the happy foot guy, who still gets happy feet.
"What the hell are you mixing in that look-aid"
Hindsight's always 20/20, isn't it lott? ;)
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Kerr has said he believes their careers are the product
of their teams and where they were drafted. He has said they are essentially equivalent players whose careers have taken drastically different paths because of circumstances. Take a second to absorb this.
There is no telling how things would have turned out if roles were reversed.
I do believe their careers would be hugely different if that had happened, though I can’t begin to guess how much better or worse either woul have been.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
certianly their accomplishments would have changed course
but he uses that to say they are equivalent players. You don’t have to watch both play for very long to see the PROFOUND difference in ability/skill set/decision making ability etc. They do not reside in the same galaxy.
That is true at this point in their careers.
But I’d argue their situations influenced how they have grown over time. Rodgers was not the QB he is now coming out of college or else he wouldn’t have slipped like he did. He might be a shell of himself if he had been on some of the dreadful Niner teams Alex was a part of.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
I think
Rodgers would have left for another team, whereas Smith stuck around.
thats why
I love alex. He stuck around, there’s no quit in that due, and he’s got heart. He could have left a long time ago. He has what it takes to be a winner. I wasn’t sure when we first drafted him if it was him or his team, and over the years I suspected that we were just bad, and this year validated my suspicions. He’s a winner. If he had half the weapons Aaron Rodgers has at wideout, he’d be in the pro-bowl. I’m sorry if it sounds like I’m fawning over him, but everyone has to respect the fact he stayed for 7 years, while everyone booed him, disrepected him, cursed him and counted him out, cut and gone. People…he’s gonna win us the super bowl this year just watch.
by texasniner31 on Jan 4, 2012 6:59 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
That would mean it was really shrewd
player evaluation by the Texans to trade for a guy who hadn’t tore it up.
They made a good call with David Carr, eh?
They “lucked out” yes. He had not showed much of anything as a back up.
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He did play in a somewhat pro style offense that utilized the running game followed up with play action in college.
Very similar to what he does for the Texans. Although I never thought he’d do much in the NFL. Lot of dinking and dunking at UVa.
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
You were talking about their ability to assess quarterbacks.
They got lucky with one so far.
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He had one good game his entire time in Atlanta to base a decision off of.
That’s luck based on a small sample size.
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this is true
that’s how desperate teams are for a QB that can sustain a team and franchise. They are willing to take huge, and sometimes poor, risks.
I wish you paid for college
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Jan 3, 2012 12:35 PM PST up reply actions
STOP
The insults are getting ridiculous. I’ll close the comments in here if you guys can’t behave like adults.
by David Fucillo on Jan 3, 2012 1:21 PM PST up reply actions
I don't think he would have done all that good here.
With the coaches and systems we had in place.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
Obviously it is impossible to say
but his numbers are superior to AS.
by asmithisaverage on Jan 3, 2012 12:40 PM PST up reply actions
Throw more passes, you get more yards and TDs...and INTs
That will never change.
It comes down to this: Would Harbaugh significantly change the offense if he got a QB who he thought was more complete than Alex?
Bold prediction RG3 will be better than Luck.
Taking Luck #1 overall will be the worst bet.
"What the hell are you mixing in that look-aid"
Drew also thinks Landry Jones will be better QB than Luck
at least he thought so in this thread
http://www.ninersnation.com/2011/9/11/2417863/nfl-week-one-morning-opening-thread
by Mood_Indigo on Jan 3, 2012 1:53 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
This I absolutely do not agree with.
I can potentially see RGIII being better, but I just don’t see it in Landry.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
I've changed my tune about that since the beginning of the year.
Jones was looking pretty good early on…. dunno what happened to him.
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Someone else argued that Kellen Moore was the best quarterback in college football too
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So he can play DB for us a la Nate Davis?
Maybe kick returner… they don’t usually have to be that tall… I think manraj is like 5’6" and towers over Kellen Moore.
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Your dismissiveness when it comes to certain players is so astonishing that you become dishonest
It’s probably inflated a bit, but still, Moore is listed at 6’1" by ESPN
Are there any legitimate observations you have about Moore that make you skeptical of him? Or is it the per usual with you? I’d love to hear if you do have something to offer as to why he might be overrated and not very good.
If he were REALLY 6'1" ... then I may buy his potential.
I doubt he is over 6’0" when he measures at the combine where things are official…
bookmark it
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If he is in fact that small, then he is shorter than Drew Brees...
He is more in the Doug Flutie range… Flutie was athletic, Moore is not very much…. Standing in the pocket in the NFL is not going to be as easy as taking shotgun snaps and getting 30 seconds to throw the ball on given play.
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So let me get this straight:
Outside of his height, which may be closer 5’10" than 6’1", you think he is a good prospect. So a few inches is the difference between him being a dud and possibly being a player. How can your opinion of a player be swayed so much based on a couple inches.
Feel free to clarify your position. I sense that this was your per usual of having an initial reaction to the player, and being incredibly dismissive without any evidence.
height
Drew Brees obviously is an exception on height, but given that the NFL has seen shorter guys have some issues, I think you could say a two or three inches is a big deal in the league.
by David Fucillo on Jan 3, 2012 2:34 PM PST up reply actions
It matters
I guess my point was that Hometown didn’t really have any reasons as to why he didn’t have a skill set that could succeed in the NFL — I think he could be better and make just as big an impact as Dalton did this year as a rookie — but just spouted off that he sucked.
that's fine...
You can point out fallacies in his arguments but given how easily you guys start bickering, why can’t you just play it a little safer so that the discussion itself can continue? It’s pretty much a fact at this point that any discussion between you guys will turn into this, so why not just avoid it to some extent by not adding unnecessarily provocative digs at the other person?
by David Fucillo on Jan 3, 2012 2:39 PM PST up reply actions
or ignore each other altogether
no one likes it and it puts the spotlights on yourselves arguing about the wording of a statement. At the end of a thousand comments nothing was said.
by mcwagner on Jan 3, 2012 2:41 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
I'm all for this...
But considering he has to respond to every post I place on NN, and bookmarking my posts relentlessly, I kinda doubt that possibility.
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really?
Unless I don’t know something, nobody forces you to click reply and respond.
by David Fucillo on Jan 3, 2012 3:11 PM PST up reply actions
Well naturally if there was no reply in the first place
I would have nothing to respond to,, correct?
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not necessarily
You know you guys don’t get along for the most part. It’s just being the bigger man. You ignore a person often enough and they eventually find something else to do. And if not, that’s their problem.
by David Fucillo on Jan 3, 2012 3:52 PM PST up reply actions
and...
the once again last paragraph was unnecessary for the purpose of this discussion. Taking a shot at a person when there is a genuinely useful topic being discussed is unnecessary instigating. You could have just as easily ended with “Feel free to clarify your position.”
by David Fucillo on Jan 3, 2012 2:35 PM PST up reply actions
I'm no expert
But I am shocked he isn’t getting more talk. That may change in the Combine. He really looks like he has all the tools for a pro QB.
And what compelled you to go find that anyway? haha
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I thought I'd make a list of all the most outrageous dismissal of Luck's status as #1 NFL pick
but no one came close to you in your disregard of Luck. So that’s the one I bookmarked!
I started bookmarking the most outrageous
assertions by the Hometowner 4 months ago but my Bookmark tab got full in two weeks and my computer crashed, so I stopped.
That's borderline stalker craziness...
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I thought it would come in handy when you go off on
your tirades about why other people are wrong and stupid for not agreeing with your crazed assertions. I kept a seperate bookmark tab for all the times you levied raging insults at someone over disagreements in the event the mods needed some sort of evidence, but of course that tab got full just as quick.
If that’s how you justify filling your computer up that’s still pretty creepy.
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your concern should be
how is a computer able to get filled so quickly when saving your personal attacks and insults?
You two are made for each other and much more similar than either would ever admit to.
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
by Virginia9er on Jan 3, 2012 2:32 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs
yes, bold
and quite possible. I don’t think Luck will be a bust; I think he will be solid. But Griffen could end up being better, sure.
I agree with this.
I don’t think Luck will bust and be a Russel or Leaf, but I see him being a good starter but not the next Peyton Manning. The Colts don’t have a run game, so that will really hurt him.
RG3, imo, is Mike Vick but with much more accurate.
Even though I think RG3 will be better than Luck, if I’m the Colts I still take Luck.
wow
that’s asking a lot for RG3 to break the cycle of Heisman winner’s totally sucking @ the NFL level, but ok
I'm saying Cam Newton is a very good player
and has been a winner his whole career. That Leinart has too has nothing to do with this.
but Leintart won a natl title and the heisman and is 8-11 that’s more of a winner than Cam Newton who is 6-10 as starter.
Panthers were the worst team
last year!!!! That’s how they got him!!!! Geez, Newton sucks cause in his rookie year his team went 6-10?
just sayin, drop the whole winner argument, it’s nonsense, Newton is a good QB, could be great if he either brings down his int. or increases his TD passes/yards
that counts as a bust
in my book…throwing more picks than TD’s, how’s that any different than Clausen?
He's been the best rookie
in years !!! probably since Peterson. Of course, if the TD/INT ratio doesn’t progress, his ceiling is lowered
just because he can beat you w/his legs
doesn’t necessarily make him a ‘great’ qb. He’s like Vick 2.0 but with a much worse QB rating
The rushing TDs cound as well.
And the team is worse than when Clausen was the QB. Its far to early to say he is a bust, but the team should still be cautious with him.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
Look... I think everyone here can agree that we can get better at the QB position...
BUT… it’s really a shame that some people cannot admit that we can also get a lot worse at the position. With progress made this year by our current QB, is it really a horrible idea to see what’s up one more year?
We made the playoffs… we went 13-3…. we ONLY lost by a point differential in those 3 games by a grand total of 15 points… and we did all this with Smith at the helm. We have a 1/3 chance of making a Superbowl… From what we have seen the past whatever years…. is this such a horrible year for us?
If a player has progressed, and as long as they are not regressing, and the team is winning games and going to the playoffs giving us a chance for SB’s each year, then why would you mess with that?
I am not saying we NEVER need to look at getting better. Don’t get me wrong… Smith is obviously not the be all, end all… far from it. But the team seems to be behind him, the coaches seem to be behind him, and the F.O. seems to be behind him.
He’s done well enough to deserve at least one more year…unless he totally chokes away our very first playoff game nearly single handedly, I think it’s a really bad idea to mess with what this team has built.
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I didn't feel it was necessary to come out and say
we can do worse. I felt that was self-evident and not worth having to mention. But, of course, this is not a reasonable defense to saying people should just leave Smith alone and settle for this guy.
Why?
What’s bitching and moaning about it gonna do?
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Yes you can always do worse than an average QB
did you really need five paragraphs to explain that?
by asmithisaverage on Jan 3, 2012 1:14 PM PST up reply actions
so you consider 13-3 and the second seed in the playoffs average?
you consider the 9th best passer rating in the league average?
his point was it’s time to reasses Smith’s performance based on this year alone
Smith has clearly done nothing to help put this team in position to win games.
It’s been ALL Frank Gore.
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yeah that's what I said
you do this a lot too. What makes sense about using team accomplishments to say said player is good or bad?
Well you sure in the hell cannot acknowledge his accomplishments, so if the shoe fits...
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Nothing... he's done absolutely nothing.
Frank Gore has done everything. And our defense scores all the time… etc. etc…
Nothing. Pointless even trying this… you’re obviously incapable of anything resembling rational.
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What has he accomplished?
It’s different than saying he’s done nothing. What separates him from your average-to-medicore QB, from an individual or team standpoint?
are you asking what has Frank Gore accomplished this year?
by David Fucillo on Jan 3, 2012 1:30 PM PST up reply actions
Smith
Third quarter against the Eagles was really impressive. The throw to Walker to beat the Lions. Hanging with Eli Manning in the early passing frenzy of the Giants game. Just a few examples.
by David Fucillo on Jan 3, 2012 1:33 PM PST up reply actions
I acknolwedge this
but then all QBs have accomplished something. Garrard has “accomplished” something. I’m talking about team or individual accomplishments, e.g. pro bowls passing titles etc.
I'd rather the team win than him get individual accomplishments.
The two aren’t mutually exclusive, but he has had a hand in some of the wins. It is not known if another QB would have done the same.
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well...
as far as team accomplishments, I’d say wait until the playoffs actually occur. I know some folks think the 49ers are getting ready to get blown out soon, but I figure I’ll wait and see.
He hasn’t hit up those individual accomplishments in part because he is not in an offense to do that. I don’t think it’s a matter of Harbaugh not “trusting him” as you seem to think in part because Coach Harbaugh has shown times where he is open to having Alex throw the ball a lot more frequently. The team goes with a given game plan each week. Sometimes it involves Alex making some plays (for example, the Giants game) and others where they are going more strict ball control. That is not a recipe for huge individual numbers or Pro Bowls or whatever.
by David Fucillo on Jan 3, 2012 1:39 PM PST up reply actions
This is how I feel too.
But thats the beauty about the playoffs…we shall see what happens in less than two weeks.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
I don't think its a given that we get blown out
I actually think its very unlikely. I think it is also unlikeley that any game we play — win or lose — will be one-sided. We refuse to put a game away and our defense doesn’t tend to let us get down by too much.
putting a game away
I would argue the fake FG attempt against the Rams was an example of going for the throat. Obviously it ended up closer, but at the time it was going for it.
by David Fucillo on Jan 3, 2012 1:43 PM PST up reply actions
The TD to Int ratio has been much better than average.
Some of his clutch drives as well. His yards are below average, as are his total TDs.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
I think both of you are taking the extreme point of view.
When the reality is something in the middle. Smith has made major strides in becoming a better QB this year, but he is clearly still not in the top tier. An upgrade would be nice but only at the right price (though that prices is debatable). The offense is average, but that is all its needed to be with our defense. He has yet to prove that he can put up big numbers but he has made a few key drives late in games to help win them.
Does that about sum it up?
Twitter: @Joshuahss
I'd say he has been above average this year.
Not a ton, but better than average. But I value the TD to Int ratio and points scored far more than yards. The problem is the chicken and egg argument. Is Harbaugh conservative by nature or does he not trust Smith. Would the team be better off if he threw it more and would his stats improve.
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as Clutchtree pointed out
consider the degree of difficulty of his throws. he probably shouldn’t have any picks. I’ve never seen a QB asked to do less before.
Really? I have.
Andrew Luck and his 3-6 yard dump offs all season and all of the sudden he’s a demi-god.
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So have I... He did it all night long last night outside of 3 passes.
It is very much true… it’s the system… same system Smith is in now.
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So doesn't that actually say more about the guys catching the passes?
Nobody has any kind of YAC on this team outside of Josh Morgan who went down early in the year.
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college vs pro?
Look at Smith’s college numbers at Utah.
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you're straying from your original point and premise
which had nothing to do with college numbers. I pointed them out because you tried to equalize the systems as some way of propping up Smith for some reason.
Not straying...
Pointing out your flawed logic.
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that was to point out that
that your whole comparison is inconsistent. But why bother anymore? This is fun but very time consuming.
Whatever shines Smith in the most flattering light is what you will propose.
You were the one who brought it up.
If it wasn’t relevant then you shouldn’t have said it, right?
I wasn’t the one comparing apples to oranges…. system to system… that’s apples to apples….
You went on to compare pro to college numbers.
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You went on to compare pro to college numbers.
No, I don’t. I want to stay away from most of the comparisons you make. I don’t know what the relevance of using Luck or that system. I mean, all QBs are system QBs it seems to you, yet Alex Smith is objectively above average, and when the system didn’t fit him, it’s the systems fault, not his.
You must mean Nolan/ Sing era, eh?
Good call.
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Dunno...
You went way off the rail with talking about systems and how Alex failing was blamed on those and all that…
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Lot easier for a college RB to turn a 3 yard dump off in to a 75 yard TD than it is in the NFL.
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This is not correct at all.
Luck makes a bunch of quality throws in almost every games.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
you concede the point about
your flagrantly false statement about Luck though, right?
by salary_cap on Jan 3, 2012 1:38 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I never said he doesn't make nice passes sometimes.
Saw him do it last night… Just not sold on this “second coming” talk that hypes him up…
I saw a bunch more system dump offs and playmakers making plays than I did Luck doing a ton on his own.
He’s good… he has a lot of nice tangibles that give him a lot potential as a pro. But it’s not always the hard and fast and there is context to consider.
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But its working for the team so why change it?
Would you be happier if he threw for 500-700 more yards with 5 more TDs and Ints? He has made difficult throws during important drives this season.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
But taking more chances leads to more interceptions.
There is no way to be certain that would happen, but if you look at other QBs in riskier offenses that is what normally happens. Aaron Rodgers being the obvious exception, of course.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
Not to mention the stats don't back up the dink and dunk offense idea either.
He is about avarage in the amount of plays he makes down the field.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
So if he has made "major strides" does that mean he cannot make more?
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So why wouldn't we want to find out?
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depends
On how likely one sees the possibility of it happening. A simple cost/benefit analysis.
by David Fucillo on Jan 3, 2012 1:40 PM PST up reply actions
What do you mean by cost/benefit?
Signing a new contract?
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cost/benefit
Not cost/benefit in a dollars and cents way. I mean more like it depends on things like:
1. How high is his ceiling – if it’s not that high, then maybe it’s not worth the wait. If the ceiling is sufficiently higher, then maybe it IS worth the wait to see if he can develop.
2. The other options available – if a person thinks a Flynn or Manning could be brought in AND they think they bring more upside either short or long term than Smith, in that instance it would make more sense to go in another direction.
I’m NOT saying any of the above statements are true. I’m just saying it is not as simple as if he could continue to improve we should wait and see what happens. Just that there are multiple factors to consider in determining whether he is the guy to stick with moving forward.
by David Fucillo on Jan 3, 2012 1:45 PM PST up reply actions
Well I am not advocating signing a 5 year deal or something nuts like that.
Obviously the window is small for him to be successful at this point in his career. My whole point is, if he has progressed and continued to do so… how do you evaluate a “ceiling”? Quarterbacks usually continue to progress given the right situations… Smith is finally in a decent situation.
So what is a 2-3 year deal really gonna hurt if he has indeed continued to progress all year? It would sort of naive to make an assumption that he is currently AT his “ceiling” now.
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the ceiling
That’s up to Coach Harbaugh and company. I wouldn’t even begin to make that kind of judgment, but people on this site make judgments about the ceilings and potential of players all the time. I don’t think it’s naive, it’s just a matter of debate.
Personally, I agree with you in giving him a two or three year deal and seeing what comes of it.
by David Fucillo on Jan 3, 2012 1:52 PM PST up reply actions
Worst case scenario is still a pretty good scenario.
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Since when is passer rating considered a valuable stat?
We don't need 8 in the box. We have 52 in the box.
by these3words on Jan 3, 2012 3:21 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
since 1971 when it was adopted as an official stat by the NFL
by reedkrase on Jan 3, 2012 3:29 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
that doesn't make it valuable
I think it can definitely be involved in the discussion, but also taken with a hefty grain of salt.
by David Fucillo on Jan 3, 2012 3:35 PM PST up reply actions
What are the categories that it measures?
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it measures...
It factors in average yards per attempt, completion percentage, interception percentage, and touchdown percentage. My big problems with it is ignoring sacks.
by David Fucillo on Jan 3, 2012 3:54 PM PST up reply actions
Sacks are a problem in and of themselves.
They are extremely difficult to pin point blame. So it’s as good as it’s gonna get basically….
One that that is not measured, that I just looked up are intangibles… rushing… and things of that nature… but in terms of measuring passing, it’s not the worst thing in the world to go off of.
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Just like drops and things of that nature are not considered too.
But if you start nitpicking every tiny and tedious detail, then you’ll eventually find a flaw with that as well.
But to me, when someone says Smith has the 9th best passer rating, I still think it has meaning.
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What if you just stayed away from my posts all together?
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You can take just about any stat and twist it...
Yardage for example… A quarterback may throw for 3,000 yards, but what does that really tell us? For all we know, he actually ONLY threw the ball in the air for 1,000 and the other 2,000 was all YAC from some shifty playmakers…
or…
Interceptions also: What if you have a really crappy set of receivers who are infamous for tipping passes up in the air? How many of those are on that guy opposed to the QB?
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ESPN's rating does include sacks
It also weights performance with probability to win weights.
It is also the biggest pile of crap presently known.
Alex Smith’s Total QBR was 28.7 or something for the Philly game.
Reasons why? The 1st half was not good. His 3rd quarter was fantastic, but then in the 4th quarter (which gets more weight from this ‘statistic’) the 49ers ran the ball down the throat of the stupid wide-9 defense as Frank Gore plunged in for the go ahead TD. All the work Alex did in the 3rd throwing the ball is almost ignored even though it was what sparked the comeback and even made it a 1 score game allowing the 49ers to continue on the ground.
Obviously the defense and missed FGs affect all this, but the point remains, no stat should reflect Alex as 22 points under what is consider ‘average’ on that day.
His regular old QB rating was around 110 I think. While that statistic is over used as well at least it isn’t 100% pure garbage.
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
Regular QB rating is a good statistic.
It does a good job of isolating quantifiable, repeatable factors that correlate very well with other indicators of quarterback individual performance, including an eye test.
Just looking at a least of quarterbacks sorted by their QB ratings confirms that – on a weekly basis.
The probably with the NFL's QB rating is that the inherent assumptions it makes are clearly wrong.
It way overvalues TDs compared to yards, and way undervalues interceptions compared to yards.
It also ignores situational factors – eg 9 yards on third-and-10 is not as good as 9 yards on third-and-eight. All yards in the NFL are not created equal.
Lastly, it values yards created by the receiver after the catch exactly the same as yards created by the throw.
Now, in the case of very good or very bad QBs, these factors don’t matter much, which is why the statistic matches your eyeball test.
However, if all a statistic tells us is what we can see anyway, it’s not very useful. In fact, one might argue that it’s not telling us anything, rather it’s just a way to give our subjective impressions a pseudo-scientific veneer.
It’s been a while since I looked up the math, but doesn’t it value TDs as being equal to something like 80 yards (which is absurdly high – TD throws are not, in and of themselves, particularly meaningful), and doesn’t it value INTs as something like 20 yards (again, absurdly low – the value of an INT is something like expected distance on punt + expected distance on remaining offensive snaps in that possession – distance downfield change of possession happens + some factor to account for the big play/momentum factor).
However, if all a statistic tells us is what we can see anyway, it’s not very useful.
Exactly the opposite. It means it is a very good statistic that puts an easily computed objective quantity in good agreement with a complex judgement.
All statistics should strive for such clarity. ESPNs one is the opposite.
Whether a stat telling us what we see is a good thing or a bad things is purely dependent on the quality of our abilities to understand what we see in complex ways.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Jan 4, 2012 11:07 AM PST up reply actions
That is why you need statistics.
And you calibrate it by comparing it with expert opinion, other statistic and by testing its predictive ability.
The goal is to use the least amount of the least variable data to satisfy all those requirements with the minimal amount of measures that are as orthogonal to each other as possible.
It means it is a very good statistic that puts an easily computed objective quantity in good agreement with a complex judgement.
Not really.
The problem is that our subjective judgements suffer from all sorts of biases. If a stat agrees with them completely – and doesn’t add anything to the conversation – then the chances are good that it is reflecting those biases.
I would argue that the NFL’s QB rating’s over-valuing of TD throws shows exactly that fault. It reinforces the subjective error we make in evaluating a QB, rather than correcting it. If it correctd it, there should be some dissonance between the stat and the observation.
We like it when a QB walks off the field after throwing a TD. The play always makes it on sportscenter. It feels good all out of proportion to it’s true impact. (eg, if a QB throws for 40 yards on a 70 yard drive, how much of a difference does it make if that last yard is via pass or via run in terms of how well the QB played? I would argue that it makes almost no difference in terms of the team’s ability to win the game, but it makes a huge difference in both QB Rating and in the eye test).
An easier to understand example of this is points per game in the NBA. It’s amazing how often subjective evaluations are determined by nothing more than how many points a player scores – ignoring how many minutes he’s on the floor, and how many shots he takes to get them. eg, Manu Ginobili has clearly been a better offensive player than Monta Ellis over the past two years. Subjectively this doesn’t feel like the case because Ellis is often a much more fun player to watch (he doesn’t flop like Manu, and when he makes his crazy twisting shots in traffic they’re alway make the highlight reel). PPG reinforces the subjective – but wrong- opinion that Monta is a better player. Only when you start properly weighting other things (eg, the cost of lost possessions) do you realize that Manu is a hell of a lot better.
This goes against most people’s subjective “eye test.” It goes against the easy “dumb” stat of PPG. But the fact that PPG and the eye test agree doesn’t make either of them right.
Not really.
Yes, really.
It is a linear combination of certain simple factors. Rotating those factors – weighting them differently will do absolutely nothing to improve the important aspects of this measure.
The rest of you argument is an argument to make that measure more complex by adding more non-linear factors. In general, complexity, and especially non-linear complexity is bad.
In general, complexity, and especially non-linear complexity is bad.
Bull.
First of all, weighting the factors different doesn’t make them non-linear. It just changes the weight. Weighting TDs less doesn’t change the linearity of the model at all necessarily. It would be, for example, just as linear if it weighted TDs half as much.
What you don’t seem understand is that the currently QB system does weight the relative value of TDs, INTs, and yards – and it does that weighting badly. Changing the weights doesn’t increase the complexity (in a linear or non-linear way).
Secondly, I completely reject the notion that “non-linear complexity” is bad. That’s an absurd statement.
Almost all real world systems are more accurately modelled by non-linear models. If you’re trying to abstract a complex system into a simple number, there’s no logical reason why keeping your analysis linear is inherently better. It’s almost certainly going to be less accurate.
Did you try to read what I have said?
I have made two separate statements. Read them again and then try to argue.
Secondly, I completely reject the notion that "non-linear complexity" is bad. That’s an absurd statement.
You have obviously have not dealt with data analysis much. I did.
A hint.
Your first paragraph violently argues in favor of my point.
Your second paragraph contradicts the first.
Your third paragraph contradicts the basic principles of sound data analysis.
Your fourth paragraph shows misunderstanding of the basic principles of science.
Whatever dude.
You want to have a discussion, let’s have a discussion.
You want to insult me instead, what good does that do?
Background in statistics, used to do it professionally. This:
In general, complexity, and especially non-linear complexity is bad.
is an absurd statement.
I hate the NFL’s passer rating, but I think it’s better than it gets credit for. I think it tiers quarterbacks well enough by performance, but fails as a tool for one-to-one comparison within tiers.
I disagree with you in that I think it should ignore situational factors, because it’s not supposed to be a situational measure. That would be a fundamentally different kind of stat.
The big, stupid problem is exactly what you say, though: Its weights make no sense. I think it accounts basically for the right things, though each has some codependence that I’d like to see accounted for (a high completion percentage inflates yards per attempt, touchdown receptions and interceptions are both parts of completion percentage), but it assigns weights to those things that just don’t fit.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Jan 4, 2012 11:06 AM PST up reply actions
I disagree with you in that I think it should ignore situational factors, because it’s not supposed to be a situational measure. That would be a fundamentally different kind of stat.
Ultimately, my issue with this is that it’s pretty easy to find a situation where QBR prefers the worse play.
eg, if one quarterback throws for 14 yards on a third-and-15, and the other throws for 6 yards on a third-and-five, you’d OBVIOUSLY prefer the latter play to the former one. Yet QB Rating punishes the player for the second throw (if five yards is below his YPA for the game) and boosts the rating of the player of the first throw (so long as he’s not already averaging over 14 yards per throw or more).
My issue with that example is that it doesn’t trust the laws of big numbers. With enough completions, the guy who failed to complete the long third down will complete the short one, and vice versa, and if he doesn’t, then it will show up with the averages. The problem you’re talking about is one that exists if you’re using QB rating to evaluate one play. And that’s obviously unworkable.
I think that in sports there are two fundamental kind of stats. There are stats that put a weight on result types and stats that put a weight in situation types, and, more than likely, stats that mess with and get messy in the gray zone, and each tells you a fundamentally different thing. Traditional passer rating is a stat that weights results types, and trusts washout over large samples. Wanting it to weight situations is faulting it for not being something it isn’t supposed to be.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Jan 4, 2012 12:13 PM PST up reply actions
With enough completions, the guy who failed to complete the long third down will complete the short one, and vice versa, and if he doesn’t, then it will show up with the averages.
I disagree – strongly.
Football is a complicated game. On third and long, for example, the defense is often willing to give up the short completion. A 10-yard-completion on third-and-20 is usually a pretty easy play – certainly easier than a 7 yard completion on third-and-five.
This isn’t easy to measure, mind you, and I understand your point about different types of stats, but the problem is that people use the NFL’s QB rating as a shorthand for “how well the QB played.”
ANd it’s not. Or at least, not a good one.
What confuses me, though, is that all of your counterexamples come from microsamples. “A 10 yard completion” is one play. We all know, or should know, that traditional passer rating is entirely useless for one game, or two games, or five games…. I mean, Curtis Painter’s passer rating was right there with Alex Smith for a few weeks there. But as his sample got larger, the noise washed out. And that’s my point here.
But maybe I should have termed it a little differently. Over the course of enough attempts, quarterbacks are placed into a great enough variety or distribution of situations for the numbers to stabilize. Not perfectly, mind you, but well enough to make adjustments simple. And I do think simple adjustments would need to be made to correct for things that directly affect the quality of the passing game (strength of schedule, running proficiency).
The other part of my argument, though, is that over a large enough sample, poor play is its own punishment (the Painter example). The quarterback who doesn’t put himself into favorable positions may see those occasional 14-yard non-conversions or garbage time touchdowns, but more often will see himself taking chances, overthrowing guys 20 yards down the field, failing to convert touchdowns, and putting the ball in the opponent’s hands. Those things are all perfectly accounted for without micromanaging down-and-distance adjustments, and the beauty is that they are the things that take over the stat line when you’re looking at anything more than a handful of games.
The trickier thing is that football is a small sample sport, and I don’t know of any work that’s gone into finding the point at which these things stabilize. An adequate sample may be something well in excess of 600 attempts – and it seems to me that this is highly likely. Which is where I think our points reconverge.
If you don’t get stability in your variables over the course of a full season, then the stat won’t be all that good as a measure of performance over that same period. And a quick glance at any QB’s page shows plenty of instability over 400-600 attempt samples. Which is why I say above somewhere that traditional rating is perfectly fine for lumping quarterbacks into tiers, but is almost certain to fail in one-to-one comparisons. It’s just not good enough.
I do also agree that traditional passer rating is not used correctly, and is flawed in its weights to begin with, though.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Jan 4, 2012 2:45 PM PST up reply actions
What confuses me, though, is that all of your counterexamples come from microsamples. "A 10 yard completion" is one play.
Sure.
But I’m using it as an example of general principle: on third down, yards that don’t get you a first down are particularly difficult compared to yards that do. Thirds downs are an entire class of plays, and the NFL’s passer rating mis-evaluates them systemically.
So, yes, I’m using one type play as an example, but that type of play probably makes up, what, 25% of a QB’s passes? And all of those passes are systemically mis-evaluated.
As for the overall predictive power of the stat, I agree with you. In any event, I feel like QB performance is way too dependent on variables beyond the QB’s control anyway. In other words, I don’t feel like we’re just dealing with random variation and regression to the mean (as in your Curtis Painter example) – I think we’re often dealing with different things happening on the field. eg, Joe Montana didn’t just randomly have a bad day against the Vikings in the playoffs, rather he was rendered ineffective by Bubba Paris’ inability to control Chris Doleman. That’s not a fluke you would expect to go away if the teams had played again the next week.
I think we understand each other pretty thoroughly now, and we just seem to have a difference of approach, really. And, really, for all I know, yours is the better approach. My feelings on how football statistics should be trusted to work are always a work in progress, and I was glad to be able to discuss it at length here.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Jan 4, 2012 5:16 PM PST up reply actions
Crap?
Every statistical system has flaws. Didn’t think I’d like it but has grown on me.
The last two games I’ve felt Alex played very well but his conventional stats were identical to his 14 other starts, QBR was able sniff out his good performance.
Does have errors like the Eagles game. They have to draw consistent rules towards accounting meaningful plays. Most of the time a TD pass down 21 points means garbage, handful of times its the start of great comeback. Based on their rules a big comeback is a bit of a blind-spot.
Yes, crap.
It is over designed and self-referential. It is an a very good example on how not to design statistical measures.
My problem with QBR is that it does not measure what ESPN wants you to think that it measures.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Jan 4, 2012 11:08 AM PST up reply actions
Comp %, TD %, INT %, and YPA.
But the real problem is that it assigns arbitrary weights to each of those stats, with no real basis for why each stat is that valuable compared to the others.
We don't need 8 in the box. We have 52 in the box.
It's raw numbers without context.
But adding context to stats like that are virtually impossible. However, it is not the worst measuring stick for assessing passing the ball.
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I wouldn't necessarily say arbitrary...
…as much as the factor analyses/regressions hasn’t been updated since the early 70s, which makes it completely out of wack in today’s NFL.
I assume it sticks around mainly because it’s the only advanced stat regularly mentioned by major media outlets, and has a decent name. Is something like Pro Football Reference’s adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) significantly better for modern day usage? Sure. But it has a clunky name and it’s all just a black box to the average fan, so he’ll stick with the one he regularly hears about instead.
I think it's a valuable measure for comparisons
and in the context of the comment, I think Smith’s passer rating, regardless of how you look at it, is a reflection of his performance, not a team achievement.
...whereas tackles weren't an official stat until 2001.
I don’t put too much stock in the NFL’s official position on statkeeping.
We don't need 8 in the box. We have 52 in the box.
Donte Whitner
had over 140 tackles in 2010, and the Bills had one of the of the worst defenses in the league. The tackle stat must not be valuable since you can’t rate a defense’s performance.
obviously, like the passer rating, the stat is valuable in context
When DBs get that many tackles
it’s a reflection that offensive players are in the defenses secondary far too often. It doesn’t necessarily mean Whitner has good ball instincts, or that he’s a heady tackler…although he could be both of those things. But the stat doesn’t really tell us that.
Just like a QB rating
All we know from the Tackle stat is whether a player knows how to wrap guys up and finish the tackle. If you assess the stat in context, which player had the tackles and how many of those tackles were for a loss or less than 2 yards you learn a lot more.
So he has not progressed in your opinion?
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AS has progressed on turnovers
he has regressed on yardage, scoring touchdowns and taking sacks.
by asmithisaverage on Jan 3, 2012 1:35 PM PST up reply actions
Yardage?
Maybe you are uninformed but he had a career high this year on yardage, qb rating, and td to int ratio…
He threw 3 more TD’s than last season… had plenty of dropped passes that sort of deflated his stat lines… etc, etc…
I am not sure if you honestly don’t know, or are just flat out making things up now to defend a false notion.
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He played all the games this year
which is why his yardage is a career high, but skewing lower per game than previous years. QB rating and TD to INT ratios are basically the same stat so no need to double mention. Of course, our red zone TD has plummeted this year so really Smith should have about 8+ more TD passes but I am sure you will blame the play calling.
by asmithisaverage on Jan 3, 2012 2:02 PM PST up reply actions
By 15 yards a game?
Is that what you’re honestly arguing?
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yes
I am saying his previous record for yards was crap as you should be.
by asmithisaverage on Jan 3, 2012 2:07 PM PST up reply actions
He has not regressed in yardage, TD's and taking sacks.
He set a career high in passing yards(3,150) and in yards per attempt(7.1) this year.
His 19 total TD’s is a career high.
As for “taking” sacks, yes he was sacked a career high 44 times. But that should be blamed more on the offensive line than Smith.
I agree that Smith has progressed. But I think my opinion is because I feel that the team got the record in spite of Smith, not because of him. Of course he only threw a few INTs and didn’t throw the games for us like Mark Sanchez, but tat doesn’t mean I’m confident with him
I’m okay with him coming back if harbaugh gets someone realistically who can push him, or maybe even try developing kaepernick a bit
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Jan 3, 2012 1:15 PM PST up reply actions
Okay but...
So you’re saying Smith has done NOTHING this year to help this team win games? I just want to clarify how delusional or not this comment really is.
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no he hasn’t done NOTHING
he threw a touchdown in the lions game, that won us a game.
and i want to clarify that i dont think not throwing many INTs isn’t helping the team, but with how little he throws it isn’t surprising
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Jan 3, 2012 1:19 PM PST up reply actions
He's thrown 17 TD's this year....
Had plenty of more TD passes dropped… But I guess in your mind the ONLY thing he has done ever this year is thrown a TD to Delanie Walker in the Lions game?
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is 17 TDs good?
I never liked juding QBs solely on TDs, especially when the coach doesn’t give Smith lots of opportunities.
17 TD's with SEVERAL drops in the numbers and hands this year?
Yeah… it’s good… especially when there were only 5 picks. He should realiztically have about 24-25 TD’s but got no help from people who couldn’t catch perfectly thrown passes for whatever reason.
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......or finish their routes on break downs.
He also has a couple of rushing TD’s too.
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I don’t see enough progression. I truly believe Dalton or Newton, could have had a better year under Harbaugh. Pre-snap reads, consistent ball placement, and poise in the pocket. Then I’ll hooray his performance all day.
"What the hell are you mixing in that look-aid"
I think Harbaugh and Newton would have clashed, Newton seems like he’s too much of a cowboy.
I’m still convinced that the team nearly traded up to get Dalton.
That was the Bengals own pick.
They went 4-12 in 2010.
We don't need 8 in the box. We have 52 in the box.
Too much of a Cowboy? It’s about coaching, hasnt this season shown anything.
"What the hell are you mixing in that look-aid"
Some cowboys don't listen:
Brett Favre… Jim McMahon…
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To Clarify
Newton doesn’t seem like the type of player that would be willing to sit back in Harbaugh/Roman’s conservative offense. Newton would inevitably take a risk that the coaching staff didn’t agree with that turned out bad and all hell would break loose.
Newton is Mike Martz dream QB, one of the only QBs fast enough to pull off Martz’s nine step drop back (j/k)
I don't think Harbaugh/Roman would run the same conservative offense with Cam.
They run the offense that best suits Alex’s abilities at this time and what gives them the best chance to win games. Cam has different tools and they wouldn’t try to fit a square peg in a round hole if he was the quarterback.
"I believe in you guys in the media. I believe that you will find a way to doubt this team. Just as long as what's written is written against us we'll be happy." - Jim Harbaugh
by SanFranciscoKnights on Jan 3, 2012 6:13 PM PST up reply actions
This shall be exciting
I hope our defense can shut down some of the top tier offenses to keep Alex Smith in the game.
by asmithisaverage on Jan 3, 2012 1:38 PM PST up reply actions
They don't need to shut them down.
But putting our team in a shootout doesn’t play to their strengths. I don’t think the games will go that way either.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
Then you must be betting on Detriot over the Saints
by asmithisaverage on Jan 3, 2012 1:48 PM PST up reply actions
Why?
The Saints’ offense, statistically, is much better in a dome than outside. Add in the quality of the Niners defense and the potential for swirling winds and I believe the Saints won’t score more than 30 points against SF. I don’t see the Niners getting in a shootout with anyone in the playoffs.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
I'd rather not play the Saints and then the Packers
simply because I am betting neither can put up 30 points.
by asmithisaverage on Jan 3, 2012 2:04 PM PST up reply actions
I'd rather not play the Saints or Packers either.
But I woudn’t bet on the Lions winning. I just feel that the Niners can beat either team, though we will see if they do or not.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
he's going to have to make clutch passes and decisions
doing it during the reg season is one thing, but doing it under the pressure of playoff play is another.
I still like Kaep
Alex is ok for right now, but I’m not gonna complain if we go after manning. I like that we actually have decent options at qb for a change.
I dont think it's fair to judge Alex on some of these stats alone.
Alex isn’t throwing to Calvin Johnson, Fitzgerald, Grabkowski, or even Victor Cruz. Some of those numbers depend on the receiver. Look at Cruz padding Manning’s line with those 10 yd catches he turns into TDs. Or a big receiver out jumping or breaking tackles? We just dont have the receivers to make our offense look better.
He does have Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis
He is not suffering from the lack of good targets either, I wouldn’t pin the blame on receivers.
they are decent
But I wouldn’t focused them with Calvin Johnson or Jason soften. Crabtree can’t stay healthy and is finally coming on, and Davis at times does not have sure hands. He drops too many easy passes for my tastes. Alex has never had any truly talented wideouts to throw to. Brady and Rodgers have like seven apiece.
by texasniner31 on Jan 4, 2012 9:32 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
YOU GUYS KNOW WHAT IT’S TIME FOR?
The Chicago Bears announced Tuesday that offensive coordinator Mike Martz and quarterbacks coach Shane Day will not return next season.
ALEX SMITH + MIKE MARTZ = WHAT DREW BREES RECORD?
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Jan 3, 2012 1:55 PM PST reply actions 4 recs
I knew someone from there would be canned not named Lovie
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Hahahah.
Thanks for the laugh. Imagine Martz trying to run his offense under Harbaugh, I don’t think it would last more than a week.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
A Singletary and Martz reunion in New York... Gang Green!
J-E-T-S…. Jets, Jets, Martzingletary!!
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OH WAIT. I FOUND OUR UPGRADE AT QB
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Jan 3, 2012 1:58 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Rec'd
even further! Pictures of JT O’Sullivan are a lot more fun to look at with the 49ers in the playoffs.
by David Fucillo on Jan 3, 2012 1:59 PM PST up reply actions
We would have called for the banhammer if that was shown a couple years ago.
How time and winning cure all wounds.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
Y'know
JTO wasn’t that bad… He just had NO LINE WHATSOEVER
Ken Dorsey
was no good. Hill and Rattay weren’t too bad. For having a bunch of no name scrubs, we could have done much worse.
chris weinke
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Jan 3, 2012 3:02 PM PST up reply actions
Isn't Martz already promised to the rams?
they decided he wasn’t that bad afterall
Andy Reid's new coordinators:
Mike Martz – OC
Mike Singletary – DC
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It would have been funny.
If it was not for realz.
QB
I think Smith can be good for the next 2-3 years but I dont see Kaepernick as our QB of the future. I wouldnt be shocked to see the niners take e.j manuel next year and develop him for a year or so until Smith leaves.
by ninerafficionado on Jan 3, 2012 2:29 PM PST reply actions
Yay AleX ,They Will Extend The Man ...!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!
new name if he wins the superbowl
AleXceptional
sorry, WHEN he wins the superbowl
what was I thinking
Nice ...!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!
Alex Smith posts
I pretty much have to think twice about any Alex Smith posts considering they end up the same way.
by David Fucillo on Jan 3, 2012 7:40 PM PST up reply actions
Ginger AleX
Greg Roman may be gone to Penn State. Alex will get the eighth offensive coordinator in his eighth-year NFL career. I never have seen anything like this in general.
by Tantrum16 on Jan 3, 2012 6:25 PM PST via mobile reply actions
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