Evaluating Michael Crabtree's 2011-2012 Season
by ninerspride on Jan 31, 2012 2:35 PM PST
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PrintBased on NinersNation comments in the last few weeks, it seems like we've split into two camps on Michael Crabtree: one group who thinks Crabtree didn't play very well last season, and one group who thinks other factors are to blame for his lackluster numbers (Alex Smith, the 49ers run-heavy offense, his below-average teammates at wide receivers, etc). So here's my attempt to add some numbers to this debate, by comparing Michael Crabtree to receivers who found themselves in the same situation as him in 2011. Here's how I picked which receivers to compare Crabs to:
- They had to have led their team in targets. We're looking at #1 wide receivers, since they are the ones who draw the best corners like Crabtree does.
- They played with non-elite QBs, like Alex Smith. To that end, anyone playing with a Pro Bowl QB is eliminated (Brady, Big Ben, Rivers, Dalton, Rodgers, Brees, Manning). I also removed anyone playing with Tony Romo or Matthew Stafford. Both of those guys are pretty good.
- They were on teams that don't throw the ball much. I narrowed my search to receivers who played for teams that passed for less than 4,000 yards in the regular season.
- They did not have Pro Bowl pass-catchers playing next them. Crabtree doesn't have much help out there, other than Vernon Davis, who had a down season this year before the playoffs started.
- They are all-around receivers. Crabtree runs short, intermediate, and deep routes -- so I wanted to compare him to receivers who did the same. Players like A.J. Green, who mostly runs deep routes, and Percy Harvin, who mostly plays in the slot, we're taken off the list. This criteria is a little subjective, I admit.
- They had to have at least 100 targets. Sample size is important.
After all that, I was left with ten receivers along with Crabtree and Davis. Their stats are below:
| Name | Team | Targets | Yds | TDs | YPT | CR% | YOC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | SF | 110 | 1084 | 10 | 9.9 | 70.0 | +373 |
| Anquan Boldin | BAL | 122 | 1061 | 4 | 8.7 | 54.9 | +222 |
| Brandon Marshall | MIA | 142 | 1227 | 6 | 8.6 | 57.7 | +215 |
| Nate Washington | TEN | 121 | 1023 | 7 | 8.5 | 61.2 | +191 |
| Jabar Gaffney | WAS | 115 | 947 | 5 | 8.2 | 59.1 | +163 |
| Dwayne Bowe | KC | 142 | 1159 | 5 | 8.2 | 57.0 | +153 |
| Steve Johnson | BUF | 134 | 1004 | 7 | 7.5 | 56.7 | +66 |
| Reggie Wayne | IND | 132 | 960 | 4 | 7.3 | 56.8 | +37 |
| Michael Crabtree | SF | 130 | 908 | 5 | 7.0 | 60.0 | - |
| Mike Williams | TB | 124 | 771 | 3 | 6.2 | 50.7 | -100 |
| Greg Little | CLE | 120 | 709 | 2 | 5.9 | 50.8 | -140 |
| Brandon Lloyd | STL | 117 | 683 | 5 | 5.8 | 43.6 | -149 |
A few notes on the numbers i used: All stats are from AdvancedNFLStats.com. Targets is the number of balls thrown at a particular receiver, according to the NFL. I listed targets instead of receptions, because I think targets is a better statistic for evaluating receivers. Target stats account for drops, interceptions, poorly run routes, throwaways, and pretty much every play that a receiver is involved in. YPT is Yards per Target, which is simply total yards/total targets. CR% is Catch Rate, calculated by Catches/Targets. And finally, YOC is Yards over Crabtree, which calculates how many more or less yards a receiver would get if they were targeted 130 times, like Crabtree was this season.
As the numbers show, seven receivers in similar positions to Crabtree had better seasons than him. Boldin, Marshall, Washington, Gaffney, Bowe, Stevie, and Wayne played with average QBs in conservative offenses, yet they would have all gained more yards than Crabtree did based on Yards per Target. You'll notice that three of those receivers (Bowe, Stevie, and Wayne) are all on the open market this offseason, and based on these numbers, they would all be slight upgrades over Crabtree.
Crabtree wasn't terrible -- he was better that Lloyd, Little, and Williams, although all three of their quarterback situations are arguably worse than the 49ers'. Crabs also had a surprisingly high catch rate, which says good things about his hands. However, Davis also had a high catch rate, which makes me think that Alex Smith's propensity to take sacks instead of throwing jump balls may be inflating their catch rates.
To me, these numbers show what a lot of us were thinking -- that Crabtree is a good receiver, but he's far from elite. He would benefit from having a true number one receiver lined up next to him, possibly one of the seven receivers above who have shown that they can flourish with average quarterbacks. The 49ers can and should try to add more talent to the receiving corps to help Crabtree and the team out.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.
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Crabtree's yards per target is 54 out of 78 WRs.
He led the 49ers in drops (7) and was tied for 10th in the NFL as well. Led the team in drops with 7 in 2010 as well.
I’m tired of this notion that he has “good hands” or that he’s anything more than an above average #2 receiver at best.
what were those drops?
does that account for a bad thrown ball?
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
by HUNGRY HUNTER on Jan 31, 2012 3:19 PM PST up reply actions
Whatever the Washington Post counted as drops.
I an attest to the fact that I’ve seen Crabtree drop more than his share of catchable balls the past 2 years.
Regardless, he still led the team in drops and certainly does not have good hands.
In the set given, his catch rate is also due to plenty of catchable balls thrown his way from Alex. This is further evidenced by Vernon Davis who has 6 drops this year.
many of alex’s passes are really really high, if you do not know what the drops are; how can you cite that as evidence?
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
by HUNGRY HUNTER on Feb 1, 2012 12:45 AM PST up reply actions
And Crabtree also makes awful drops.
http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/05/23/drop-percentage/
PFF had Crabtree with 8 drops in 2010, and bottom 10 in the league in drop percentage.
There’s 2 separate sources (Stats LLC and PFF) that have Crabtree being bottom of the league in drops in 2010. If you want to stick your fingers in your ears and yell “la la la la la,” then be my guest.
BUT
HE MAKES THOSE CATCHES 15 FEET OVER HIS HEAD THOSE CANCEL OUT HIS DROPS RITE???
And this year he improved
Amazing isn’t it.
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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by manraj7 on Feb 1, 2012 9:36 AM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
Because a 3rd string WR puts up 500+ yards since week 11
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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by manraj7 on Feb 1, 2012 1:23 PM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
83 yards per game
you have a high standard for a guy who plays on a team that averages 180 yards per game.
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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10 games...
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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Maybe because
Crabs was still healing a broken foot early in the season, or did he make that up?
by mikeinsp on Feb 1, 2012 7:52 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I didn't
I did 500/6
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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right
and he had a total of 567 yards through 9 games, or 63 yards per game and 7.6 yards per target. Those are not elite numbers, although they would have him essentially tied with Stevie Johnson’s efficiency stats.
during that 9 game span niners averaged 214 yards
so he accounted for 30% of the passing offense. AND THATS INCLUDING THE BREAKOUT GAMES FROM VD
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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Well, yeah
No one is saying crabtree is the number 2 receiver on the 49ers right now. Of course he’s 30% of the passing offense. Other than Davis, who the hell else was going to catch those balls? Morgan was out, Walker was injured, Edwards was injured or benched, Williams barely saw the field, and Gore dropped like half of the balls thrown his way.
Crabtree was targeted a ton, wasn’t particularly productive, and still ended up with a lot of yards because of all the chances he got.
all the chances?
In the last 7 games of the season Smith threw is 209 times. Crabtree was targeted for 60 of those and 75 out of 277 during the post season.
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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so from week 11 through the playoffs
crabtree was targeted on 27.1% Smith’s throws, and produced 30% of the team’s passing yardage.
In comparison, fitzgerald was targeted on 28.6% of the cardinals’ throws, but produced 39.6% of his team’s passing yardage. (All stats from advancednflstats.com).
that’s the difference between a solid receiver and an elite one.
can I have that link you use
I am tired of using yahoo…
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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thanks also remember how we were talking about depth Smith is 23rd on the list
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2012/01/air-yards-2011.html
Although that includes deep throws to Ginn and Williams and Davis.
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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What does the deep% stat mean?
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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depends
for receivers, it means percentage of balls caught when the receiver was 15+ yards past the line of scrimmage. for QBs, its percentage of 15+ yard balls thrown that result in PIs or catches.
thanks
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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Fitzgerald is a top 3 WR in the league.
No one said Crabtree is on that level. He is comparable to the others on your list and he is clearly improving.
"I believe in you guys in the media. I believe that you will find a way to doubt this team. Just as long as what's written is written against us we'll be happy." - Jim Harbaugh
by SanFranciscoKnights on Feb 1, 2012 7:51 PM PST up reply actions
fair point
I posted stats on a few of the guys above later in the thread. here they are again:
Fitzgerald: +11 (28.6% of his team’s targets, 39.6% of his team’s passing yards)
Marshall: +9 (30.5% of his team’s targets, 39.7% of his team’s passing yards)
Bowe: +8 (29.3% of his team’s targets, 37.6% of his team’s passing yards)
Stevie: +4 (23.6% of his team’s targets, 27.4% of his team’s passing yards)
Crabtree: +3 (27.1% of his team’s targets, 30% of his team’s passing yards)
my bad
539/7 = 77 yards or 567/9 = 63 yards.
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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214*16 = 3200
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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Even Fitzgerald would barely break 1000 yards
and he accounts for 33% of his team passing offense.
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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FITZGERALD IS A #2 WR
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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you literally are using opportunity stats to prove that a player is bad
think about that.
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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Um, no.
You’ve done absolutely nothing to disprove anything I’ve said besides make numerous mathematical errors.
numerous mathematical errors?
I made one.
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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Also once again if you are expecting a WR to post 1400+ yards with a QB whose record for throwing yardage was 3144 yards during the regular season
You will be waiting a long time.
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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When did I ever say I expected Crabtree to get 1400 yards?
Also, one could argue (and I will actually) that part of Alex’s low amount of yards has to do with this bad WR corps which Crabtree is a member of.
Is it really the WRs though?
Niners WRs and TEs post the highest YAC out of the people on the list above. Smith posts an average 7.1 YPA so is Smith’s low yardage due to the fact that A. he doesn’t throw it as often as other teams or B. That no one can do anything with the ball?
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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Yes. It is the WRs.
Certainly isn’t the TEs.
Also, YAC isn’t listed above, so I don’t know where you’re getting that from.
Google YAC yards
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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Because I'm such a nice guy
http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/receiving/sort/receivingYardsAfterCatch
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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They didn't include the playoffs though
because not every team makes the playoffs so it won’t scew the stats.
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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They do the playoffs.
Crabtree was 28th in the postseason.
So Crabtree had a good bit of YAC in the regular season. That doesn’t make him better than any of the receivers listed above based on that one merit.
Those yards can be obtained easily by blown coverages, good ball placement, etc. Crabtree is decent after the catch when he has space though. His problem is getting open, then catching the ball.
you need to click on the regular season buddy
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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ya I did
I was talking about the regular season because only one of the other people on that list made the playoffs.
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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Indeed. I conceded he had a good amount of YAC
in the regular season. Why are you asking me to click on the regular season when I already did and conceded your point?
Seems like you’re not reading my posts and just seeing “RAWR CRABTREE BAD RAWR.”
Its true thats all I see
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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P.S.
You guys win. I concede. Crabtree has no business being the #1 WR on a team. We should draft a WR with our first rounder so he can show how badly our WR corp has been slacking.
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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I don't see any WR who would want to come here
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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Well, there's really no way to tell just yet.
Haven’t seen any articles from the bigger name FA WR’s about where they are wanting to go or whether they just want to re-sign with their team.
49ers aren’t a bad destination. Guys like Bowe and Jackson would be coming to a team that was a ball to the knee away from being the Super Bowl where they would be the undisputed number 1 WR. Say what you want about Alex Smith, but I don’t think he has a bad reputation throughout the league.
Its not all about winning
We ranked 31st in A/G and our starting QB averages 200 something yards per game. Not to mention that it takes him years to get in snyc with his WRs/TEs. They’ll spend the majority of their contract being labeled a FA bust for not putting up the huge numbers expected of him. Not to mention that if he has any injuries during the preseason he’ll be accused of not being a team player
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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I'm sorry, but I think my reasoning is a bit more logical.
A guy like Bowe or Jackson has to see that as an opportunity to really come in and take over an offense that struggles to find an identity at times.
However, there’s nothing to prove it, so we’ll just have to agree to disagree and see how the offseason play out.
things players look for
Money, Location, Wins, and Stats rankings vary from player to player.
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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Can't prove this
but I would assume normal rankings go. Money, Wins, Stats, Location maybe switch stats and wins depending on position.
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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that's why i picked the receivers I did
since they all play with mediocre QBs. Alex might not be Drew Brees, but neither is Flacco, Moore, Hasslebeck, Grossman, TJ Yates, Fitzgerald, or Orlovsky. Yet all those receivers found a way to be more productie more than crabtree.
3424 to be exact
I just did 200*16 cuz I am lazy
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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178 × 198 = 35244
see, I can multiply big numbers too, but what does that have to do with Michael Crabtree
Was saying that the team does not throw very much
Which is why Crabtree doesn’t put up massive numbers
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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so I did it not including the post season
and Alex Smith averaged a grand total of 205 yards per game from week 11 and on. So 77/205 = 37.5% of the team passing offense.
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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I already did the playoffs above
You should read all of the comments.
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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yes sir.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/7177/gamelog;_ylt=AjpmPR4gZnd5sBEjiFVsNhr.uLYF
(add those numbers from 11 to 17) add [299 (from Saints game) and 196 (from Giants game)] then divide by 9 or 7 depending where you wanna cap it off.
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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So he gets 29% of the passing yards of our offense.
And was targeted 27% of the time.
Man, Crabtree is SUCH a beast.
rolls eyes
Where did you get 29%
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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29.4% rounds down to 29%.
Counted the postseason games.
Alex Smith had 214 yards a game, Crabtree had 63 yards a game. 63/214 = 29.4
haha my thoughts exactly
Crabtree is +2%, which is not great. Here are the season-long stats for marshall, stevie, and bowe:
Marshall: +9 (30.5% of his team’s targets, 39.7% of his team’s passing yards)
Bowe: +8 (29.3% of his team’s targets, 37.6% of his team’s passing yards)
Stevie: +4 (23.6% of his team’s targets, 27.4% of his team’s passing yards)
Subplot of this thread: Steve Johnson might not be very good.
Thanks for doing this.
I was going to, but you beat me to the punch.
Great insight on S-Johnson. I didn’t know a whole lot about him, other than he was performing relatively well in Buffalo. This gives some good evidence that Bowe is much more worth pursuing.
more catches than catchable balls?
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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nvm thats 2010
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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You'd think he'd use THIS years' numbers, and not past years.
Nevermind on that 114 targets then, that’s from this year.
Had 115 targets this year close from one year to another
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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So did the GOAT
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/walkthrough/2006/too-deep-zone-jerry-rice-rookie-bust
"I put him up against any of the receivers in the league. I can attest to just how hard this man works every single day, and the people of San Francisco really need to appreciate that."
---Kyle Williams
lol
"Cruelty, It’s not giving another person what they want. That’s our mindset on defense, to go out and play with everything we have and not give the other team anything." -Patrick Willis
I think it's a pretty weak example
I get your point but think you could have found a better example then “Jerry Rice dropped some passes as a rookie.”
"Cruelty, It’s not giving another person what they want. That’s our mindset on defense, to go out and play with everything we have and not give the other team anything." -Patrick Willis
Receivers drop passes. It happens to the best of them.
Just like incomplete passes or interceptions.
And as I’ve said before, dropped pass stats are almost completely meaningless.
"It all depends on the quarterback."
---Jerry Rice
yep I agree with you
I just didn’t agree with the Jerry Rice comparison.
"Cruelty, It’s not giving another person what they want. That’s our mindset on defense, to go out and play with everything we have and not give the other team anything." -Patrick Willis
That is not a bad ball.
It is a Crabtree out of position. That is obvious from comparison with what Davis manages to do with the same QB throwing the balls.
Drops is a funny stat
Since it doesn’t take into account some things that a receiver can do wrong (running the wrong route, getting the ball knocked out of his hands, etc.) and it does take into account things the receiver can’t help (overthrown or mistimed throws from a QB). But you’re right that Crabtree’s YPT was not very good this year. If he’s the #1 next year, the 49ers need a lot more out of him.
Indeed. It isn't an end-all-be-all stat.
However, it does confirm what I’ve seen on the field during the past 2 years of Crabtree’s lackluster play (though he did improve in ’11).
The notion that he has "good hands"
Wasn’t just given to him… Did you see Crabtree in college? He caught something ridiculous like 140 catches as a freshman. I don’t care what level you’re playing at, 140 catches in your first season is outstanding. If you think Alex looks like Joe Cool out there hitting his recievers in stride you need to watch a little more closely. I’ve seen Crabtree make some outstanding catches and I’ve seen him with some bad drops, but then again what WR hasn’t made bad drops. WR is so timing based that it requires some perfect chemistry between QB and WR, something Alex and Crabtree don’t have yet.
To say he’s not physically gifted enough to be an elite reciever is absurd.
"Whoever said WAR is HELL must have been talking about Aaron Rowand" - McCoven faithful
by shahbazi3 on Jan 31, 2012 11:46 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
There are two words that just blow all that up
Mike Leach. He throws to open up the run. He throws to open up the pass. He throws when we wants to open up a can of pork and beans. 45 attempts is a minimum. If things are going his way he’s throwing it 60-70 times a game.
You can’t take any numbers from that, especially not in the “defense is optional” Big 12 and expect to do anything with them.
Unless you also want to start singing the praises of Danny Amendola who racked up 109 receptions in that offense.
Every time Jamie Dukes says something enlightening and informative about football Jerry Rice and I mount up on our flying grizzly bears and claim pirate treasure from the moon. That's how often it happens.
lol pass to open up a can of pork
I just had a funny image
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
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Mike Leach owned Aaron Rodgers
"I put him up against any of the receivers in the league. I can attest to just how hard this man works every single day, and the people of San Francisco really need to appreciate that."
---Kyle Williams
Are you seriously using his college stats when he's been in the league for 3 years?
His NFL stats and how he’s done here are infinitely more relevant than his freshman year in a Big 12 offense playing against Big 12 defenses 5 years ago. He’s done more than enough to build up a reputation around the league as a WR who has iffy hands. What he did 5 years ago in college is completely irrelevant.
And he isn’t anywhere near gifted enough to be an elite receiver. He has absolutely a 0% chance to be anywhere near guys like Fitz, Megatron, and Andre Johnson. They literally do everything better than Crabtree and always will. What Crabtree does have the potential to be is a great #2 WR, but he hasn’t shown me anything in these first 3 years to hold out hope for that. If he hits this 2012 offseason with his feet running and he actually goes through training camp and plays in the preseason, maybe I’ll hold out some optimism; however, when he hasn’t done any of this in his first 3 years, it doesn’t make sense for me to hold my breath now.
Honestly with our anemic passing game...
Crabtree’s stats impress me. He was hardly targeted in the first half of the season and if you mirror his second half stats he would’ve put up 84/1120/6 which are pretty damn good numbers considering that would account for 1/3 of our total passing yards. In addition he was the focus of the defense often which allowed Vernon to get open often.
If you think a receiver being compared to Jerry Rice and Michael Irvin before entering the league just doesn’t have the tools to be a receiver you’re crazy. There’s obviously more to it besides he “has bad hands and can’t run routes” but you’re the analyst.
"Whoever said WAR is HELL must have been talking about Aaron Rowand" - McCoven faithful
I don't know if the numbers show that
I posted this below, but crabtree’s stats from week 11 (his breakout game in Arizona) through the championship game are the following:
75 targets, 46 catches, 567 yards (7.6 yards per target, 61% catch rate)
Let’s say, for the sake of argument, you mirrored that into the first half of the season his season totals would be:
150 targets, 92 catches, and 1134 yards (7.6 yards per target, 61% catch rate)
Those look like good numbers, but any receiver who gets 150 targets is going to have 1000+ yards. My point in the post is that other receivers targeted that many times by average QBs are more productive than Crabtree. Brandon Marshall would have gained at least 1290 yards with 150 targets, and Dawyne Bowe would have gotten at least 1230 — and that’s before you take into account that Alex Smith is playing better than Matt Moore and T.J. Yates/Kyle Orton. Vernon Davis would have gotten close 1500 with 150 targets from Alex Smith.
Crabtree can definitely be good — he’s shown flashes of dominance this year. But he is too inconsistent for this team to solely depend on next year. He needs help out there.
by ninerspride on Feb 1, 2012 4:54 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Indeed. Crabtree's play shows this and the numbers show this.
I don’t see how more people don’t realise it.
Realize what?
Here’s a bit of reality for you—-
Inconsistent QB play is directly tied to inconsistent WR play.
"It all depends on the quarterback."
---Jerry Rice
Now here's a bit of reality for you---
Inconsistent WR play is directly tied to inconsistent QB play.
Our WRs are more detrimental to Alex than Alex is to our WRs. This whole thread has stat after stat of how Crabtree hasn’t been helping Alex out as much as a #1 WR is expected to in this league. I think you’ll find it a very informative read.
You sound like a broken record sometimes.
And Jerry Rice doesn’t think anything since that article is from almost 20 years ago and does nothing to prove any point you’re trying to make.
Ok, whatever
But if what you say is true, why are QB’s paid more than WR’s? Why are QB’s considered more valuable than any other player position on the team?
Ludicrous.
"It all depends on the quarterback."
---Jerry Rice
I don't see what that has to do
with our WRs being more of a detriment to our offense than Alex Smith is.
Alex certainly deserved his salary this year. Our WRs did not.
That's not what you said
You said:
Our WRs are more detrimental to Alex than Alex is to our WRs.This argument is fallacious on the face of it. Joe Montana raised the level of Jerry Rice’s play (as well as all the players on the team), not the other way around. Even Rice admits that to be the case.
"It all depends on the quarterback."
---Jerry Rice
facepalm.jpg
Just ignore all my points. Discussing anything with you is like talking to a senile old man that can’t hear what you’re saying and misinterprets it as something else entirely.
how come you're not refering to any quotes from montana
he constantly credited his playmakers just like rice credits the QB. It’s called being professional.
Find it, post it
I’d love for you to find Montana saying:
It all depends on the receiver.
Never going to happen because it’s not something Joe or Steve Young would ever say.
I doubt you’ll find any QB in any league saying anything like it.
"It all depends on the quarterback."
---Jerry Rice
do you really need a 20 year old quote to know that montana gave credit to his receivers?
They often talked about hoin order to be a good qb in the wco, you need to understand that it’s not about putting the game on your shoulders, just getting the ball in the hands of their playmakers.
that's what I thought
I can’t find the quote, so you’ll just have take my word for it.
Lame.
"It all depends on the quarterback."
---Jerry Rice
because I wasn't able to find an old quote imediatly while posting from my cell phone?
I’ll see if I can find something for ya, but it really shouldn’t be that hard for you to accept that Joe Montana said good things about Jerry Rice. Do you really think he was selfish enough to not credit his receivers? And real classy implying I was making things up because I wasn’t able to find an old quote right away.
C'mon Andrew
You’re just playing ignorant games now.
Jerry Rice isn’t just ‘saying good things’ about his QB’s in that quote. He’s directly attributing his success as a WR to the people who throw him the ball.
Here’s the quote again. Check out what I have bolded:
Four more touchdowns and Rice will tie Jim Brown for most end-zone visits in National Football League history with 126. “When I hang my shoes up I would like to hold every record possible,” said the 31-year-old Rice.
He might have set the mark last Sunday night against 1-11 Cincinnati, but Young suffered his fourth concussion of the season, felt as though his head were in a vise and remembers only parts of the game. And that is the peculiarity of Rice’s career: he is ultimately only as good as his man under center.
“It all depends on the quarterback,” laughed Rice, who has memorized Montana’s phone number in Kansas City.
You won’t find a similar quote from Joe or Steve or any QB in the league because that’s not how things work in the NFL.
Not sure why you still want to argue about it, but good luck finding that quote.
"It all depends on the quarterback."
---Jerry Rice
Why deny the obvious?
I’m wasting my time arguing with you.
"It all depends on the quarterback."
---Jerry Rice
Hey, sorry dude
I have been rather snarky with you.
I’ll try to either ignore you comments or respond in a like manner.
Just make sure you don’t start a conversation with someone you don’t know with:
What the hell are you talking about?It probably won’t go well.
"It all depends on the quarterback."
---Jerry Rice
You seriously carried that rhetoric to every thread
based on that comment, even after I apologised? Good lord man.
And I’m pretty sure we’ve had discussions before that comment as well.
Either way, I’ll definitely try and be less brash with you as I have been at times. Though we’ve pretty much ran the course full circle on almost everything we can talk about this offseason.
We should start talking about how we don’t like Tannehill from now on, haha.
Interesting! thanks for posting!
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
Be interested to break it down into half seasons
He didn’t show up till mid-season. Not quite sure who was wearing his jersey until then.
Every time Jamie Dukes says something enlightening and informative about football Jerry Rice and I mount up on our flying grizzly bears and claim pirate treasure from the moon. That's how often it happens.
he definately played better in the second half of the season
Maybe he had a hard time getting acclimated to the playbook? I know that was a main reason why Vernon was struggling in the beginning of the season.
Rule #1) If you hate Joe Buck, watch this www.youtube.com/watch?v=fkCSZKbyL94
Rule #2) Follow rule #1
Focus
He made lots of rookie mistakes first half of the season. Dropping balls and generally having no clue where he was on the field.
Every time Jamie Dukes says something enlightening and informative about football Jerry Rice and I mount up on our flying grizzly bears and claim pirate treasure from the moon. That's how often it happens.
Same could be said of Davis
Both picked up their game in week 11 against the Cardinals. Davis’ break out was much, much more productive though, which accounts for monster stats listed above. Here are their stats from week 11 through the playoffs:
Crabtree — 75 targets, 46 catches, 567 yards (7.6 YPT, 61% CR)
Davis — 68 targets, 43 catches, 705 yards (10.3 YPT, 63% CR)
So Crabtree’s breakout second half of the season was still worse than Bowe, and 4 other receivers listed above. 7.6 YPT is pretty good, however. If he can keep that up, he would arguably be a better receiver than Stevie Johnson.
It was the playoffs where Davis picked it up right?
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
Follow @manraj76
Davis definitely shifted into another gear in the postseason
with two 100+ yard games and 4 touchdowns. But he had a handful of dominant games late in the season as well. 118 yards in St. Louis, 72 and a TD against Pittsburgh.
I debated whether I should ignore the postseason, but my thinking was more data is always better than less data. Crabtree’s numbers are weighed down heavily by his playoff performances, but that should be factored into any evaluation of him.
Do you have the YAC numbers for all of them?
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
Follow @manraj76
yards after catch?
no, although I’m sure you can find them somewhere on the internet.
I have no idea who should get credited for YAC — the receiver, the scheme, or the QB? All three have their part to play. Even if you could somehow hold the latter two constant, I wonder if YAC is more the result of random noise than anything else.
I was thinking you can find the depth of the each pass
I had all the info but I pressed cancel instead of post :(
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
Follow @manraj76
Crabtree had the most but I only included the regular season
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
Follow @manraj76
that's an interesting point
You could use Yards per Reception – (Total Yards after Catch/Total Receptions) to calculate Average Reception Depth. Basically, a way to calculate where receivers are initially getting the ball from their QB. I imagine Crabtree and Davis both have pretty low ARDs, given Smith’s penchant for dinking and dunking, but I haven’t run the numbers.
I'll try to do it
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
Follow @manraj76
Josh Morgan
Looking at the stats again, Morgan was poised for a breakout year based on his early season YPT and CR numbers. He was targeted 20 times, caught 15, and ended his five week run with 220 yards and a touchdown (11.0 YPT and a 75% CR). It was admittedly a small sample size, but those are beastly numbers. I’m really excited to see him back on the field next season.
Joshua Morgan this year; Josh Morgan was last year on. lol
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
by HUNGRY HUNTER on Feb 1, 2012 12:48 AM PST up reply actions
Crabtrees playoffs really didn't help him did it
30 more yards on 15 more targets.
And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman
Follow @manraj76
Well all this really shows, seeing as where Reggie Wayne is on this list...
Curtis Painter>Alex Smith
lol
"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin
by HUNGRY HUNTER on Feb 1, 2012 12:49 AM PST up reply actions
Interesting ... guess this will be my new Mantra until the New League starts ...
… Can’t wait for Year Two under Harbaugh and Company …!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!
Exactly
I trust Harbaugh and his coaching staff. They think Crabtree is a talented receiver and a good addition to the team.
That’s all the professional analysis I need.
"I put him up against any of the receivers in the league. I can attest to just how hard this man works every single day, and the people of San Francisco really need to appreciate that."
---Kyle Williams
O "BOY"...!!
1. Kelechi Osemele, OT/G, Iowa State
2.Xavier Rhodes CB FSU/ Vinny Curry OLB/DE Marshall/ LaMichael James*, RB, Oregon
3. Brandon Boykin, CB/KR/PR, Georgia/ Alex Okafor*, DE, Texas
4. DeMarlo belcher WR Indiana
5. Casey Hayward, CB, Vanderbilt
6. Marvin Jones WR Cal
7.T.J. Barnes*, DT/NT, Georgia Tech
Nice ...
… Kettle calling the pot Black …!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!
(sigh) Sooooo many "stats"... :-/ My head hurts
I mean what is this? Baseball?
Crab was pretty good this year.
He’s improved every year.
He doesn’t play in a high-powered offense, he doesn’t have an elite QB throwing to him (nor is HE an elite WR for Alex to throw to; not suggesting otherwise at this point).
So he’s GOOD, he’s IMPROVING, and there are legit questions as to whether or not he’ll ever become GREAT. See? That took less than a minute and I didn’t need to know any stats other than his catches/yards…
-- I have many leather-bound books.
-- You show me a guy that can’t juggle 3 tennis balls within an hour and I’ll show you a guy that’s not going to be in the NFL very long.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Feb 1, 2012 1:59 AM PST reply actions
prove it
Ah Ha! Suddenly you have nowhere to go but back to the stats
;-D
yeah… i bitch about the stats then finish by citing…STATS.
(hey… my consistency is how consistently INCONSISTENT i am!)
Faux anger aside, feaxgh headaches notwithstanding… My problem w/football stats is not with the BASICS (i.e. catches/rushes, yards, YPC, TDs or COMP % vs TDs vs INTs vs WINS for a QB, or Tackles, sacks, TFL, passes defended, Ints, FRs, FF for defenders).
Beyond those things (for the most part, i’m sure exceptions abound every now and again), the STATISTICAL ANALYSIS that goes on today… Just INSANE in my opinion.
Football DOES NOT lend itself to statistical analysis the same way the baseball does. The further you go in baseball, THE MORE YOU REVEAL ABOUT THE GAME.
The further you go in football? The more you confuse issues that should be clear. This STATISTICAL ANALYSIS of Mike Crabtree for instance… Waste of time beyond looking at the basics of Catches and Yards. All you need to know about Crabtree can be told from knowing his catches and yards along with WATCHING HIM PLAY EVERY WEEK.
His numbers are decent and watching him reveals that he is a GOOD PLAYER. Not a great player yet, but a good player who is improving.
How hard was that? What stats do I need beyond catches and yards? Every ADVANCED stat can be argued both w/its INTERPRETATION as well as the METHOD OF COLLECTION (what qualifies as a “drop” for instance, whose fault is it if someone isn’t targeted? how do you know if he wasn’t open or if the QB simply didn’t pull the trigger? etc, etc, etc, on and on and on).
These SUPER DETAILED FOOTBALL STATS? They reveal little, unearth even less, and probably exist simply because (a) they enable SOMEONE SOMEWHERE TO SELL SOMETHING and (b) the idiot talking heads that spout “knowledge” 24/7… hell, these bozos need SOMETHING new to talk about. Jamie Dukes needs some method to try and SPIN HIS BULLSH*T and show that he has a point about something…
-- I have many leather-bound books.
-- You show me a guy that can’t juggle 3 tennis balls within an hour and I’ll show you a guy that’s not going to be in the NFL very long.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Feb 1, 2012 10:55 AM PST up reply actions
That’s why I love football so much more than baseball, no matter how outlandish an opinion I may have, I can always go back later and back it up with stats. But then it seems 75% of all NN bloggers seems to use that technique, at least 50% of the time. i got those stats by browsing over 1500 daily comments from an average of 60 daily users.
lol... nice!
-- I have many leather-bound books.
-- You show me a guy that can’t juggle 3 tennis balls within an hour and I’ll show you a guy that’s not going to be in the NFL very long.
by I'm Friends With Merlin Olsen on Feb 2, 2012 2:23 PM PST up reply actions
Looking forward to Crabtree's 4th season
I’m not to familiar with football players development, but I know in hockey you’re usually looking for forwards to breakout in their 4th full season of action.
I think Crabtree should stay on the team, and I would love to see us pick someone up like Garcon in the offseason from the Colts. Have him and Morgan on the outside and Crabtree line up in the slot would do some great things for our passing offense.
We also have to remember that he hasn’t had a full training camp without contract issues, injuries, lockouts, etc. etc. With a full offseason heading into year 2 under Harbaugh and plenty more time to gel with A.S. and get some chemistry that could make him a go to target in this offense.
Anyways it will be nice to see what he can do with a healthy offseason, training camp and preseason and be ready 100% come the first game of the season.
I am skeptical
About Garcon. He’s got some talent, but anybody who has been catching passes from Peyton Manning/Drew Brees etc. is likely going to look their absolute best.
Granted, he’s young, and still has room for growth, but I’m not sure he’s the best prospect. This team needs on FA, and one draft receiver, and let’s see who sticks from our current group.
I wish Morgan hadn’t gotten hurt for a couple reasons- both for what he brought to the team, and because I wanted to see if he really HAD turned that corner before he got hurt, or if he was off to a fast start but likely to regress.
Do we bring him back, and for how much?
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Feb 1, 2012 10:53 AM PST up reply actions
Those look like some pretty sick skills
by Mapletreemarty on Feb 1, 2012 11:57 AM PST up reply actions
Those ARE pretty awesome
And who knows, maybe he’d be able to do exactly that for San Fran. But one of the things that made those awesome plays possible was that the ball was thrown perfectly, and hit him absolutely in stride.
I like Alex. I think he’s become a solid starter, and could well be better next year than this year.
BUT…I don’t know that he can do that. At least not more than once in a blue moon.
If we sign Garcon though, and I’m wrong, I’d be as happy to be wrong as I’ve been in recent memory.
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Feb 1, 2012 5:28 PM PST up reply actions
Capwise
You could get Garcon for a lot cheaper than you could Vincent Jackson or a Dwayne Bowe…
There are no guarantees of course, it’s just that the Niners don’t seem to go for premier FA’s, so I don’t see why that would change now?
Harbaugh and Baalke will have a list of guys who they like, and they feel fits into their team aspect the best…. I just can’t wait for the draft and FA season to begin already!!
by Mapletreemarty on Feb 2, 2012 6:21 AM PST up reply actions
Crabtree
After reading the stats I feel they support my opinion. Crabtree isn’t an elite WR, but he does hold more value to the team than his trade value.
He’s due 13M over the next three years. Could we replace him with a similar FA for less . . . probably not.
Guess we’re in for another year of crabs and another year of hoping this season will be his breakout season.
i think that's accurate
Crabtree hasn’t been spectacular, but he’s putting up solid numbers on a meager salary. Replacing Crabs with an overpaid Stevie seems like it would be a waste.
With Morgan, Crabtree, and Williams most likely coming back next year, the only free agent signing that would make sense would be a top-tier free agent. This team already has a ton of #2 WRs, it doesn’t need another.
this
This team already has a ton of #2 WRs, it doesn’t need another.
how to get that ever elusive #1 WR, is a job for the Baalke.
It's a job for Harbaugh
If he can find a winner in Alex Smith, he can make a #1 receiver out of Crabtree and/or Ginn.
"I put him up against any of the receivers in the league. I can attest to just how hard this man works every single day, and the people of San Francisco really need to appreciate that."
---Kyle Williams
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