What the 49ers Need To Do To Make a Legitimate Super Bowl Run
After reviewing some 49er game film from their past few games, I assembled a brief list of things San Francisco could improve on and continue to do in order to have success in the playoffs. I believe this is a championship-caliber team led by an incredible staff and under a legendary banner - I'm confident this team can win it all.
The 49ers have had a couple impressive win streaks this season, with a 13-3 regular season record, which included a strong road record. In so many ways, they appear to be a team built for the playoffs but some think it is a formula implemented a decade too late. I believe if the 49ers continue to do all the little things well and improve a couple more areas for their next 3 opponents, they will be world champions.
On both sides of the ball, there will need to be a level of consistency. I also don't believe San Francisco will need to change too much, because what they've been doing all season got them the #2 seed in the first place. Follow me after the jump to see what the 49ers need to do to make a legitimate run at the Super Bowl crown.
OFFENSE1. Offensive Line Gets Hot
The offensive line must hold up and play disciplined against the heavy blitz they are likely to see. It's well documented how the 49ers offense implodes when the opposing defense successfully applies pressure. If the offensive line can be a strength, everything else on offense will fall in place. Alex Smith will be protected and continue to manufacture plays, and turnovers will be at a minimum.
A well-performing offensive line ultimately contributes to winning the turnover ratio; it will allow Smith more time and open holes for Frank Gore, so they can make plays and control time of possession. And if an o-line is hot in the playoffs, it's typically fluid from game to game, which could help the 49ers scoring % on first drives.
2. Convert on Third Down
The Niners have to improve their percentage converting on third down, for many reasons. It will extend drives, make San Francisco a threat from anywhere on the field and help control T.O.P., which will be necessary against the high-scoring offenses they will have to face.
3. Red Zone Offense
The red zone offense must improve; it must be consistent, strong and produce touchdowns instead of field goals. Coach Jim Harbaugh commented to the press that they have indeed been working on it, and they will continue to work on improving the red zone offense by scrimmaging it against the first-team defense in practice. Sounds like a good idea to me.
I also like the idea of having Kyle Williams back. I know our eyes would tell us Braylon Edwards was a natural solution to the red zone issues but Williams' quickness and explosiveness could be even more dangerous. Williams on slants, outs and ins, sluggos, and stop-routes could produce the results the 49ers have been looking for, and just in time for the playoffs.
Things in place that will help: Vernon Davis as a mismatch, Alex Smith protecting the football, versatile all-purpose running backs, the rise of Crabtree
DEFENSE
1. Prevent the Big Play
Against any of the potential opponents the 49ers could face, their secondary will be tested. I've been pretty pleased with the 49ers defensive backs all around; 2 of 4 starters are Pro Bowlers and they are all physical form-tacklers who can also get their hands on the football. They've stopped great receivers this year, but not great quarterbacks.
The top three quarterbacks (Rodgers, Brees, and Brady) did not face San Francisco in the regular season. But San Francisco did take down teams featuring Calvin Johnson, Mike Wallace, DeSean Jackson, A.J. Green, Victor Cruz/Hakeem Nicks and Larry Fitzgerald's squad on one occasion. So teams with strong passing games have been defeated by the 49ers.
The defensive backs are going to have to capitalize on opportunities and not get burnt by the big play. So, the 49ers d-backs will have to play well on the back end; they've also proved they can be great in run support.
2. Continue To Dominate In Trenches
This really isn't a request for improvement, just one to emphasize. The 49ers front seven has been an unbelievable force this season with so many contributing pieces and variables. The defensive linemen, led by Justin Smith, have had a terrific season - playing to the scheme and allowing the linebackers to plug holes and make tackles.
Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman are the best inside linebacking tandem of recent, and have the chance to be the best of all time if they decide to stay together. Bowman, one of the notable Pro Bowl snuffs, had a great year in his first as a starter; Ahmad Brooks as well. Brooks and Parys Haralson have played physical, disciplined football and haven't been a liability.
As a unit, they need to continue to dominate in trenches like they have all season; producing QB hits, sacks and general consistent pressure. Aldon Smith, Justin Smith, Bowman, Willis and Brooks can all get to the QB and make offenses one-dimensional. I can see this group playing out of their mind in the playoffs, being heavy contributors to an unreal Super Bowl run.
Things in place that will help: near-impenetrable run D, don't miss tackles, don't blow assignments often, takeaways, Aldon Smith
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Special teams: Ginn gets hot
I would challenge the Red Zone offense should begin to center around Crabtree. Crabs is a physical guy that is learning to use his body to block out defenders. The other team will obviously double Vernon Davis who is our best player for the RZ. This is when Alex needs to take a leap of faith and just sling it to Crabs.
by mcwagner on Jan 5, 2012 9:47 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
I agree with all of this
Niners,Nets,Reds & USC!!!
The Most Interesting Man In The World---->Mikhail Prokhorov!!!
by Kidd2Petrovic on Jan 5, 2012 10:27 AM PST up reply actions
has Crabtree proven he can be trusted with 50/50 balls yet?
He turned quite a few of them into interceptions last year. I do agree that the trust has to develop at some point, doubt they try it now though in the playoffs.
Draft: 1. Kendall Wright 2. Trumaine Johnson
FA: Smith, Morgan, Brooks, Rogers, Snyder
by whistlingmountain on Jan 5, 2012 10:33 AM PST up reply actions
has he proven it? No
This is a very valid point. There is a lot at stake here to start taking chances. But I will contest that his play as of lately has shown that he has earned the opportunity to prove that he can make those plays. I would like to see us play conservative, but we are facing good teams that may take that option from us.
He had a nice 50/50 ball agains the Seahawks to get us the win
I don’t recall him dropping 50/50 balls for interceptions. I recall him dropping simple 6-10 yard passes over the middle for interceptions.
in regards to dropping balls for INTs
Assuming he’s talking about previous years, which is what I’m talking about
Thinkin" ... ( Winning ) is the way to the Super Bowl ...!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!
We havent used our depth on the DL
Guys like williams and dobbs havent been used. Im glad we have this bye because it seems like the DL was getting a little worn down and banged up. Theres gotta be a way we can give those guys little breaks in the playoffs. Offense has to keep the TOP going big time!
Interceptions + Prevent Big Plays + Short Yardage
= win win win
I don’t think Williams would be very effective in the red zone. Smaller receivers need the play to develop so they can get up to speed, 49ers short yardage and goal line plays are generally 2 quick reads and then a throw away if needed. I don’t see them changing their play style in the playoffs unless they’re far behind, so we can expect very few risks.
They need to get pressure on the opposing QB for turnovers. Avoid giving up the big play ( even if they have to give up tons of underneath passes, let it happen, shorten the game ).
An interesting facet to the Saints and Packers is that, while both of their defenses are terrible, when they focus solely on the run, they seem to be good against the run. Will the 49ers be able to beat these focused defenses via the air or creativity with misdirection runs? IE, will they try to “out muscle” them for 2 quarters first, or will they go straight to the Giants game plan, just pass pass pass out of the gate even if they’re short passes.
Draft: 1. Kendall Wright 2. Trumaine Johnson
FA: Smith, Morgan, Brooks, Rogers, Snyder
by whistlingmountain on Jan 5, 2012 10:29 AM PST reply actions
Patriots
TEs and WRs running fade, out, and slant routes, meanwhile Welker ALWAYS sitting on the goaline right outside the reach of LBs
Why couldnt Williams do this?
by sundaysfinest on Jan 5, 2012 10:44 AM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
well two reasons
the 49ers get the ball out faster, as the play goes further along the more likely Alex is to take a throw that is against the sideline or corner of the end zone, not throw something in the middle of the field.
and Welker is the elite small WR in the league at finding space, he and Brady have a long-time trust. Williams is a rookie with limited playing time without any developed trust with Alex.
Long term it could be a possibility, but it’s not going to happen for this 49er team right now. The 49ers have their way and they’re going to stick with it, not try new potentially risky things right as the playoffs start. Particularly against a team they haven’t played yet.
Draft: 1. Kendall Wright 2. Trumaine Johnson
FA: Smith, Morgan, Brooks, Rogers, Snyder
by whistlingmountain on Jan 5, 2012 11:29 AM PST up reply actions
Williams is not a rookie
He’s in his second season, but your point still stands. He’s no Welker, yet.
Sorry, first year of getting real playing time
I do like him as a prospect. But he doesn’t fit in this offense the way they play it at the moment.
Draft: 1. Kendall Wright 2. Trumaine Johnson
FA: Smith, Morgan, Brooks, Rogers, Snyder
by whistlingmountain on Jan 5, 2012 12:22 PM PST up reply actions
Teams and player to player chemistry peak at different times.
And sometimes out of the clear blue. To say it won’t happen isn’t exactly being truthful. It may or may not happen this year… may happen next year, may never happen, but nobody knows for sure when it will happen for sure. Could happen against the Saints for all we know… Williams and Smith could connect for three touchdowns in this next game.
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It could happen.
But I would agree with wm that it is unlikely too. Players do have one off games all the time and Williams very well might, but to expect him to connect with Smith like Brady does with Welker would be unrealistic.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
it depends on how you define it I guess
I don’t think 3 TDs necessarily means anything. Kyle has 30 targets on the season. If he catches 3 TDs in a game it’s more of a fluke than anything.
Draft: 1. Kendall Wright 2. Trumaine Johnson
FA: Smith, Morgan, Brooks, Rogers, Snyder
by whistlingmountain on Jan 5, 2012 12:29 PM PST up reply actions
Could be a fluke... or it could be the start of something.
Victor Cruz came out of nowhere and starting lighting it up, did he not?
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Plus...
Sometimes when a player has a good game like that, it breeds confidence, confidence in turn can often breed a lot more success.
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Cruz is a little different, we're talking about a guy that gets 10 targets a game
That’s the Giants. He took Steve Smith and Manningham’s targets. It’s a passing offense. Whether his absurd stats this year are a fluke or not is yet to be seen ( will he have as many 50+ yard TDs the rest of his career as he had this year? ).
It’s not the same though with an offense where WR targets are rare gems. Crabtree gets targets, Davis gets targets, everyone else has scraps. If Alex throws 4 passes to Williams and 3 turn into TDs, I don’t think it would be chemistry right then, would just be that things broke right.
Hopefully it happens.
Draft: 1. Kendall Wright 2. Trumaine Johnson
FA: Smith, Morgan, Brooks, Rogers, Snyder
by whistlingmountain on Jan 5, 2012 12:50 PM PST up reply actions
Since Williams has been playing, and healthy, he has had more targets than Davis.
But the point is that it can happen at anytime… like with Cruz. If all of the sudden they start scoring with a Smith/ Williams combo, I think that validates more targets and more opportunity… as with anything else…
Because he (Williams) has made the most of his opportunities, he has received more action… so in turn, if he began lighting it up with all his chances in the playoffs, is it so absurd to think that he would not get more action? I think not.
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It might not be absurd.
But its not something the Niners can predict or rely on at this point because there is no evidence to show that it will happen.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
Who said anything about "predicting" or "relying" on?
Sometimes things just happen on their own accord… you know…fate and things of that nature…
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Also
not try new potentially risky things right as the playoffs start.
What makes you believe that we won’t be FORCED to?
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I'm talking about game plans.
I’ll put it this way, if they get in the red zone, they’re not going to try anything risky for the first 3 downs, even if they’re down 21. They would however then try a 4th down play.
If they fall behind by 21 then their between the 20s offense would change and a lot of things go out the window. It’s unlikely that they fall behind by 21, and I doubt they’re spending much if any time game planning for it.
It’s most likely that if it’s say, the 3rd quarter and they’re down by that much, that they just up-the-tempo so to speak. Not necessarily run new plays or run them in a riskier fashion. Otherwise, against the Saints and Packers it’s going to be a whole lot of snapping the ball with 2 seconds left on the clock, runs, safe passes, short sacks, stuff that keeps the clock moving.
Draft: 1. Kendall Wright 2. Trumaine Johnson
FA: Smith, Morgan, Brooks, Rogers, Snyder
by whistlingmountain on Jan 5, 2012 12:25 PM PST up reply actions
even if they’re down 21.
I would lessen that number and then maybe agree… but they know it’s the Saints… all conservatism goes out the window if we are losing by 14 or more. They have one shot… and if you get behind two TD’s against a team like the Saints, you better start doing something than running the ball and dumping it off 3 yards and hoping that position player will bust a long one.
We all know how absurdly conservative we have been on offense all season long, but this is the playoffs…. the formula should not be changed unless it is not working. I don’t think Harbaugh nor Roman are that dumb or unintelligent as to where they would be down 21 at ANY point in the game and continue to be conservative.
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all conservatism goes out the window if we are losing by 14 or more.
You’re talking to someone who think they should be more agressive out of the gate against the Packers or Saints, but the Chiefs kind of set the primer. They beat the Packers without ever getting out of their comfort zone.
And the 49ers showed up earlier this season against Philly. Down big, they kept the same offense, but sped it up.
Alex can work well in a shot gun spread, he’s shown it to us in the past ( to have the defense let us down afterward ), but I don’t think they practice it much, and I don’t think they’d go to it for extended stretches unless it’s late in the 4th down multiple TDs.
Even down 35-21 I think they’d expect the defense to get the stops. I don’t agree with the philosophy ( in fact I VEHEMENTLY disagree ), but it is how they are, and how a good chunk of the coaches in the league are. They expect the defense to get stops when needed regardless of the opponent or score, and they expect the kicker to make 49 yarders regardless of the conditions.
Draft: 1. Kendall Wright 2. Trumaine Johnson
FA: Smith, Morgan, Brooks, Rogers, Snyder
by whistlingmountain on Jan 5, 2012 12:47 PM PST up reply actions
But that's sort of the point...
I don’t think we stay conservative if we are forced out of our comfort zone early. I think the coaching staff would implement some sort of “Plan B” in the instance that the Saints jump out to a fast start and our offense is continuing to sputter. In a regular season game, I may agree with what you’re saying a little more… but you only get one shot to advance and you pull out all the stops in trying to do that if need be. I just don’t think Harbaugh and Roman are as stubborn as the last regime and have shown multiple times throughout the season that they are willing to make adjustments on the fly, or whenever through the course of a game.
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If we get to stay in our comfort zone, that more than likely will be a direct result of controlling the game. If the game gets out of the 49ers control, then you have to start thinking “fix it”.
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one dimension
that seems to be totally obvious yet missing from the 49ers offense is the RB dump off pass. I mean, they have a porous OL, a decent-but-inaccurate QB and meh receivers…. but they’ve only thrown about 75 passes to the backs (~45 receptions). Should Hunter become the 3rd down back? Gore has never been a great receiver… and Hunter is averaging 12 yds catch and 7.5 per target (22.1% DVOA).
Just doesn’t seem like a lot (
I guess the Hobson’s choice is that the RB is needed on 3rd down to block or at least chip…. and I am not sure Hunter can pass block.
But that’s what I work on for 2 weeks if I’m Roman. Plays that Alex can get through 3-4 receivers or dump off short.
[Poorly Wrought THING] is what Brian Sabean would have made if he were a [THING-maker] instead of a MLB GM
I hate to say it
But the more I see of Hunter, the more I wonder if Gore is holding back the offense. His receiving has been abysmal this year and I wonder which of those 6 yard runs that Hunter would take for 25+.
I think they’ve used Hunter really well. Gore is having a very fine season, and Hunter has been very effective in keeping keeping the former’s load in check. Hunter’s also been transitioned more and more into the passing game as it’s become more obvious that he’s the better receiver.
He seems to be a fine runner, definitely, but we really don’t know what he would do with the lion’s share of carries across multiple weeks. And as long as Gore is capable of being sixth in the league in rushing yards, I don’t see any reason to rush into a possible Kevan Barlow situation. Gradually increase Hunter’s presence as Gore gets closer to 30, and then make a smooth transition when it’s positively clear that he can be the guy.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Jan 5, 2012 11:32 AM PST up reply actions
Good points
The Barlow scenario is a good example (damn I thought he was going to be amazing). it just seems that Gore is really slowing down, unfortunately.
Barlow was so, so terribly disappointing.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Jan 5, 2012 12:00 PM PST up reply actions
More Hunter
Nobody on their offense has the kind of explosiveness this guy has. He’s really one of the only guys on the team that is a home run threat. I’d really like to see them come up with a few ways to get him in space. He’s ran some pretty effective screens where it looked like he was one missed tackle away from a TD.
You still have to use Gore though. He looks slow but his vision and body lean are just insane. It looks like he’s going to pick up a yard and then he just finds this tiny little seam, leans forward and it’s a 5 yard gain.
by AptosNinerFan on Jan 5, 2012 12:34 PM PST up reply actions
But look at what happened to Felix Jones when the Cowboys increased his workload.
He was plenty explosive as a change of pace back, but he wore down as the number one guy. We don’t know if Hunter can handle the extra load and I don’t think he should be getting the ball that much more than he is already, at least not this year in the playoffs.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
I think this is happening already, especially if you consider the way Hunter has become more and more of a factor in the passing game than Gore. I think the coaches clearly understand Gore’s current limitations, as well as the fact that Hunter is the better receiver and getting him in space is valuable. That Gore remains the featured guy in other situations seems like good sense to me, though.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Jan 5, 2012 2:12 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Convert on 3rd down
This is arguably a bigger problem than our red zone scoring. I think what we need to so is be more consistant on 1st down. We can’t run it up the middle every time to try and put us in more favorable situations, but at the same time, taking shots down field on 1st down is a good way to get behind the 8-ball. I think our 3rd down efficiency is going to depend highly on how well we perform on 1st down. High percentage passes and a variety of packages and running plays will help sustain drives early and hopefully let us start to take more shots downfield in the 2nd half.
Here’s hoping Harbaugh has a hell of a gameplan for everyone we face.
agree
They need to get 4-6 yards on first and if they don’t, avoid some stupid run that makes it 3rd and 8+
Exactly...
I would rather see them attempt a pass for 5-6 yards or more on 2nd and 10 than run up the middle on 2nd and end up with a 3rd and 8, which is negligibly better.
Defenses already have us pegged. If we get an incomplete on 1st, they load the box because they know we are going to run it up the middle. It doesn’t help that we almost always go with those heavy formations on running plays. I’d like to see them do it and audible to split the eligible tackle into the slot just to mess with people. Imagine the thought when a LB has to cover a guy who can just bowl him over at the LoS.
by 9thevolution on Jan 5, 2012 11:29 AM PST up reply actions
Nervous?
How many of you are as nervous about this first Playoff game as I am? Don’t get me wrong, I’m excited, but I’m praying the 49ers don’t show up rusty and lethargic from their time off and lay an egg. Hopefully, the team comes out and hits NO/ATL/NYG in the mouth and sets the tone early so the players get even more pumped and the fans stay in the game and become a factor.
I’m a pessimist, so I’ll continue to fear the worst, but I’m hoping the 49ers continue to exceed my expectations as they have all year.
"The principle is competing against yourself. It's about self improvement, about being better than you were the day before." ~Steve Young #8
We have too many character guys to allow that
Harbaugh, Justin Smith, Willis, Gore: guys that want this. The feeling of just being happy to be here and playoff jitters will hopefully be dispelled by the home field advantage. That way if we travel to GB we will have gotten that out of our systems. If GB loses we stay at the Stick (as long as the power holds)
Very Happy With This Season, But.......
The 49ers just dont have championship horsepower on Offense. I believe it would take an incredible amount of luck to continue in the playoffs.
Agent Dunham....Walternate testified that in his universe, AleX Smith is a pro-bowl QB for the Saints, and broke Trent Dilfer's season record of 6000 yards passing. Walter....Thats nice, more LSD please.
You assume that our defense can't stop these teams that we've never played?
Last I checked Detroit has put up ridiculous points and offense this year. I then remember that we beat them and held them to below 20 points. I remember the Rams spanking the Saints, and the Chiefs beating up the Packers all day. There is absolutely no reason that we can’t beat any team in the playoffs. Everyone is just as suspect as we are.
by 9thevolution on Jan 5, 2012 11:36 AM PST up reply actions
I Agree With You That Anything Is Possible
But the strength of the 49er defense is against the Run, not against the pass. This causes me great concern against the Packers, Saints, and yes even a rematch against the Lions. In the playoffs, the Offense is going to have to step up, and they just havent been peaking the last month.
Agent Dunham....Walternate testified that in his universe, AleX Smith is a pro-bowl QB for the Saints, and broke Trent Dilfer's season record of 6000 yards passing. Walter....Thats nice, more LSD please.
is that all the comparisons people make, is the rams beating the saints one game and the chiefs beating the packers making them lose ONCE showing that we can easily keep up with them?
i think our lack of offense and struggles against so many team we played this year are a lot more concerning than saying “the packers lost once so they have a lot of faults” or “the saints lost to the rams so they have a lot of faults even though they scored 30 points in 10 games this year”
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Jan 5, 2012 11:51 AM PST up reply actions
I'm 100% Cheering For The 49ers, but.....
My heart tells me Superbowl, my brain tells me “One & Done”.
Agent Dunham....Walternate testified that in his universe, AleX Smith is a pro-bowl QB for the Saints, and broke Trent Dilfer's season record of 6000 yards passing. Walter....Thats nice, more LSD please.
Yes same here
And likely I’ll be in the bar watching the game screaming obscenities at the offense and get thrown out
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Jan 5, 2012 12:01 PM PST up reply actions
Mine tells me loss in the Championship game.
In between both.
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This
I think had they had to have gone to NO it would have been one and done but I like our chances at home. Not a slam dunk or anything but at least conceivable. Going to Green Bay is going to be pretty tough though. They’re going to need to catch some breaks to win that one.
by AptosNinerFan on Jan 5, 2012 12:38 PM PST up reply actions
This is what I think as well.
Though I wouldn’t be surprised if they lost to New Orleans or beat the Packers. I would be more surprised if any of the games aren’t close, though.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
Would be kinda nice considering just how little media exposure they are getting.
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Nobody Is Talking About The 49ers...
And that really pisses me off.
Agent Dunham....Walternate testified that in his universe, AleX Smith is a pro-bowl QB for the Saints, and broke Trent Dilfer's season record of 6000 yards passing. Walter....Thats nice, more LSD please.
nobody talked about the Giants right up to them beating the Patriots
Media anointed the Eagles as the best. Media knows just as much as you and I
I think the team is just not the sexy pick.
With the offensive explosion, 9 straight wins to close the year by the Saints and near perfect year by the Packers I can kind of see why. Not to mention the stigma still around Alex and the Niners offense, and the pundits just can’t buy in fully. Luckily Harbaugh knows how to use those oversights as motivation.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
That is all you need
One team lays out the blueprint and the rest fall into line. The Packers have also won a lot of their games by narrow margins. The Saints have not played all that great outdoors. These teams are not infallible; everyone just thinks they are because of media hype. It doesn’t require that you score 30 points to win games. Example: 2011 49ers.
And yes, we have played teams with high-powered offenses.
keys
converting 3rd downs and getting points (7, not 3) in the red zone are two of the most important keys to winning any games, not just playoff games. That and turnover differential.
If the Niners can convert 3rd and mediums all day I’ll take my chances.
getting points (7, not 3) in the red zone are two of the most important keys to winning
What have you seen this season that makes you confident this can happen?
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Jan 5, 2012 11:56 AM PST up reply actions
6 out of 9 of the last visits have resulted in touchdowns.
The first team offense has been practicing against the first team defense and it seems to be working.
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I think (over the whole season)
red zone offense is the symptom, not the disease.
[Poorly Wrought THING] is what Brian Sabean would have made if he were a [THING-maker] instead of a MLB GM
Sad that we niner fans
have to point to doing well in practice as means to incite confidence regarding our putrid offense in the RZ.
Sad that some people have an emotionally obsessive compulsive disorder in bashing the team at all costs.
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that is an incorrect assessment of his comment
The 49ers have done well the last three games in the red zone potentially in part because of practicing against the first team defense. There is reason for confidence because of game performance NOT because of some practice thing.
by David Fucillo on Jan 5, 2012 3:48 PM PST up reply actions
I hear that and 6 of 9 is a good ratio
I’ll take 2 out of 3. But I don’t have confidence until we are a team willing to throw the ball to score from 10 yards out. I don’t think that’s too much to ask. For most teams, its a given.
All that matters is that the team and coaches have confidence.
And they are gaining it despite of how it’s getting done.
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throwing from 10 yards out
The 3rd and goal from the 13 is an instance of not throwing it, but they have shown a willingness to throw in the red zone. I’m guessing you’d prefer it more frequently, but it’s not like they just stop any passing inside the red zone.
by David Fucillo on Jan 5, 2012 3:53 PM PST up reply actions
they've shown that they
really really really really prefer not to. Of course they have, and they will in the future, but the staff knows Smith throwing into tight spaces or throwing fades into the endzone is not his strong suit.
I think its part luck, part play calling, and part QB
but, no I don’t have confidence we can. I’m just saying its important. That we won 13 games while sucking so bad in terms of TD’s to FG ration when in the opponents territory, is a testament to the defense. If we had a different QB, I’d feel more confident obviously. Giants/Packer/Pats/Saints fan don’t get nervous when in the RZ. But I do.
"If we had a different QB, I’d feel more confident obviously"
Not really sure you need to repeat that since you’ve made it very clear in the past.
by David Fucillo on Jan 5, 2012 3:49 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs
I believe that the 49ers
can beat the Saints – even GB on the road. It’s so simple. All they have to do is (wait for it)
.
.
.
.
.
.
score more points than the other team by the end of regulation!
[Poorly Wrought THING] is what Brian Sabean would have made if he were a [THING-maker] instead of a MLB GM
I honestly believe that something like 75% (chose that more or less arbitrarily, so don’t take it too seriously) of our success in the postseason is going to rely on our defense. Against likely matchups like New Orleans or Green Bay or possibly – POSSIBLY – New England, if the defense takes even a quarter off, we’re going to be in trouble. I think the offense can be up or down against those defenses without a hell of a lot of pain coming our way (assuming limited turnovers), but defensive lapses against those teams could be incredibly damaging.
Luckily our defense is capable of it. I just hate the idea that they have to be totally on their game pretty much the entire playoff run.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
I honestly believe that something like 75% (chose that more or less arbitrarily, so don’t take it too seriously) of our success in the postseason is going to rely on our defense.
I’d say more like 95-100%
I just hate the idea that they have to be totally on their game pretty much the entire playoff run.
This is why I’m so worried. You can see it any time anyone talks about playing the Saints/Packers/etc. It isn’t that people think the offense can hang with them, it’s that they’re sure “the defense will hold their offenses low in points so we can score enough to win.” Doesn’t exactly bode well, because if one of these teams has a hot quarter it’s all over
We can’t have 3, 4, 5 three and outs a game against these high powered offenses who can literally score a TD or field goal every time they have the ball
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Jan 5, 2012 11:54 AM PST up reply actions
I just wanted to add that I definitely think our defense is great, and I don’t doubt that they can stop these teams better than other teams in the playoffs, but it’s the fact that this defense has to be almost perfect on likely almost every drive of the entire playoffs in order for the team to have a chance at winning
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Jan 5, 2012 11:58 AM PST up reply actions
yeah, I don't think anyone can dispute that
I don’t think that we can out-offense the Saints, or even the Giants, to victory. We do trump in Defense and Special Teams. All we need is for the offense is to do their job and not try and do too much.
Field possession and turnovers could prove to be a huge factor between a win and loss.
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Yep
That’s why they went 13-3 and not 8-8.
by AptosNinerFan on Jan 5, 2012 12:30 PM PST up reply actions
It doesn't make any sense that you would think it would be 95-100%
Despite what you think about the offense, they have scored points. If they play the Saints and Packers, they will be going up against teams who have the same concerns on defense that we do on offense. Add in special teams and I would say that even 75% is higher than it should be. The offense might not be great in the post season, but the team has relied on defense to get him here and it will be a let down for them if they start allowing 30+ points. I don’t think anyone is expecting the Niners to shut out either the Saints or Packers, but keeping them under 25 should be reasonable.
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We held the Lions to 19 and they have been putting up 30-40 points a game in MOST match ups.
Before they played us, they were averaging 31.8 points on offense per game.
Fangio knows how to exploit an explosive offense.
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...and he will have 2 weeks to figure the Saints and Drew Brees out.
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To counter your point, the Lions have a far less diverse offense than the Packers or Saints.
But I agree that they should be able to at least slow down those teams barring turnovers or other mishaps. I don’t think the defense is simply going to fall apart.
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Far less?
They put up 41 last weekend against the Packers… was 4 points short… but the difference is not that huge of a gap. Stafford threw the ball for 5038 yards behind only Tom Brady and Drew Brees. He has the best WR in the NFL on his team…
Far less? Don’t think so.
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Not to mention...
The Lions actually had a ground game heading in to the game. Packers and Saints ground attack is suspect.
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The Saints have a superior running game to the Lions.
And they have been been about average this year. Detroit’s ground game has been rather inconsistent all year long.
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The Saints have virtually NO running game.
Their screen passes are a substitute for the lack of a running game. Sproles was their leader with 600 yards…. Ivory and Thomas are very mediocre… nothing compared the backs we have already shut down, or injured… Jahvid Best is better than anything they had…. he was another one that bit the dust in facing us.
And when Kevin Smith came in for the Lions, he was shredding it. He will be healthy when they play again. In regards to diversity on offense, as I said before, it’s not a huge gap, if any at all, in the “diversity” of the two, or three, offenses.
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The Saints averaged 4.9 yards per carry this year,
and had 2127 yards as a team. The Lions had 4.3 ypc and 1523 total yards. That is a huge difference in both cases which shows the Saints running game is much better. I think its because their O-Line is really good, but regardless of why it has been much better all season long. Kevin Smith played well but he hasn’t proven he can handle a full load or that he can stay healthy at all. I think he is a flash in the pan.
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Don't see it... sorry.
Lions have had injury probs and that’s the difference… but to say their offensive system is not as diverse, and their is a HUGE difference is not telling the whole story.
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Saints
They don’t have a big name player carrying the load, but they execute running back by committee extremely well. Of their backs (Sproles, Thomas, Ingram, Ivory), none have proven to be workhorse backs, but as a four-some, they do very solid work.
by David Fucillo on Jan 5, 2012 3:17 PM PST up reply actions
Ingram's out...
And we have faced a lot better backs and given them no room. Their ground attack is the LEAST of our worries.
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while I agree that it is the least of our worries
I think it is incorrect to state they have virtually no rushing game without Ingram. Even without him they’ve been able to use their rushing game effectively.
by David Fucillo on Jan 5, 2012 3:51 PM PST up reply actions
I see most of their yardage coming on large gains...
When they run regular ol’ off tackle, and up the gut plays, they’re getting stuffed… they rely on a bunch of trap blocking and the 49ers have been the best all year at sniffing those out… not to mention being extremely stingy in giving up those long plays…
Maybe they have been “effective” against other teams that have given up much more yardage than the Niners but it doesn’t mean they have a good ground attack… and more importantly, will against us.
By committee, or not, I just don’t thing they have a good ground game and for the most part have been pretty one-dimensional in the pass game. In fact, they have done a ton of screen play type stuff to make up for their inefficiencies up the middle.
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To be fair the Packers had nothing to play for last week.
And rested both Charles Woodson and Clay Matthews. But I think it is easier to gameplan to stop the Lions than it is the Saints. The late season addition of a running game helped, as did Titus Young becoming a solid number 2 option. But they don’t have the same amount of weapons the other two teams have, in my opinion.
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The Lions put up 41 points against the defending Superbowl Champs at Lambeau.
The Pack did not play that game to roll over and die as they too scored 45. You don’t just put up 41 points on an NFL team, especially the defending Superbowl Champs if you have a far less superior offense.
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Also...
Matthews has not been playing as well as seasons past… there’s been a drop off in production.
They still had 3 very good defensive backs in the game in Williams, Burnett, and Peprah.
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Matthews was not as productive this year.
But he is still their best pass rusher on that defense. Removing him frees up the TE or running back who would normally have to help the tackle assigned with blocking him.
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What does that have to do with anything?
I was pointing out the scheme difference which the Lions could take advantage of with Matthews out of the line up. And I hope Vernon Davis is not blocking Clay all the time when he is rushing, as that will take him out of the passing game.
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I obviously meant that Clay could not cover VD and would have issues in shedding those blocks.
In regards to Matthews being out, I still think that Pettigrew has the advantage in getting open against him. If a DB is not on Pettigrew, he can be a gigantic weapon and possibly an X-factor.
In any case, I think you are overly under-estimating the Lions. Not saying they are gonna win, but you’re acting like they are some slouch team that’s going to get handled by 30 points or something. As it was, when they faced each other in the first game (WITHOUT SUH) the Saints did not handle them like they were nothing.
Couple unlucky bounces for the Saints and they could be out.
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I'm not saying they are a slouch team which will be handled by 30.
And of course anything can happen in the playoffs. But to me, strictly looking at the offenses, I think it would be harder to gameplan against the Saints than it would the Lions. This started talking about Fangio exploiting offenses, not which team will win of the two.
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times Saints have been held under 25
4 times out of 16. Never below 20. They are an offensive juggernaut and we need good D to even sniff a victory (luckily we have the best)
Never below 20
There’s a first time for everything.
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All 4 of their times being held under 25 were outdoor games.
I’m not saying they aren’t a juggernaut, but that their offense has been much better in dome games. They did put up a lot of points against the Texans and Bears, the two most impressive defenses they faced, but both of those games were inside. There is a possibility that they can score over 30 against the Niners at Candlestick, but I think its just as likely that they will put up between 21-25 points.
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Neutralize Sproles out of the backfield and Graham somehow and they really don't have
a ton more to worry about… their WR’s a decent (and they have 4 of them) but Graham and Sproles are the two biggest worries… they don’t really have anyone who can run the ball. Sproles had 700+ yards with the YAC in catching out of the back field.
They are virtually a pro team running a form of the spread offense. It can be stopped. And if the crowd is loud as hell (which I fully expect us to be considering the drought) the audibles and stuff like that can be messed with.
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The stats simply do not back you up on this.
Colston had over 1000 yards, while Moore and Meacham each had over 600. And thats on top of Sproles and Graham. Whether it comes down to Brees’ greatness or the play design, they find a way to utilize a bunch of different players in their offense. I’m not saying the Niners can’t limit what they do, but they will have to account for everyone on the field at all times. To simply dismiss them would cost the team.
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Stats do not tell the whole story.
And who is dismissing them? I am just saying if you take away their 2 biggest weapons, everything else becomes very manageable.
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But it tells enough to know their other players are threats.
Their offense set passing records for a reason, and I don’t think anything about it will be “very manageable.” I do think it will be easier to contain at home, but just a few mistakes will mean quick points by N.O.
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Okay...whatever...
Saints are the greatest team ever, they are not manageable, and they are going to the Superbowl…
Finished with this.
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What the 49ers Need To Do To Make a Legitimate Super Bowl Run????????
They are two games away from the Super Bowl = They have already made and are still making a legitimante Super Bowl Run!
then rec it
“I really think you are a great guy.” “So you will go out with me?” “No. Just wanted to say that I thought you are an excellent guy.”
This was not...
your line of reasoning YESTERDAY sir.
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Jan 5, 2012 12:55 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
1. Offensive Line Gets Hot
This will be the key-factor to the success of the offense in the game. The good news is that all the dings, bumps and bruises, and all that will have totally healed. The offensive line will be heading in to the game of whoever we face with that advantage. Also note: Our offensive line has had much, much more success against 4-3 defensive schemes opposed to 3-4 defensive schemes… Saints, Lions, Falcons, and Giants all four run a 4-3 scheme. The Packers are the only team that runs a 3-4 scheme in the playoffs outside of us… They, on defense at least, will present the most problems for our offense.
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I think we got that from you the first time.
And just for the record, they were 6 of 9 in the red zone the last three weeks. If they can find a way to score a little more than their 20 ppg average (say between 23-26) I think they will be in the game.
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Our average is 23.8 in scoring. 10th in the league.
Our offense is ranked 10th in points for and our defense is ranked 2nd in points against.
Saints offense is ranked 2nd in points for and their defense is ranked 13th in points against.
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And the most points our defense has allowed this year was 27.
Against the Rams.. and Dallas in OT.
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For some reason I thought it was around 20-21, and 11th in the league.
But I would still say they will need to score around 25 points in order to win the game.
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If we control the clock it can be less.
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True.
And turnovers will make a difference as well. But that would be the goal number I would pick out with all things being equal. The Saints just have so many different weapons that I think they will put up some points.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
Graham and Sproles are the two biggest.
Outside of that… Colston, Meachem, Henderson, and Moore can be decent. But Fangio can still dial up pressure.
I would spy Bowman on Sproles and put Willis and Whitner on Graham… And then just rely on man defense for the other WR’s.
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Rogers on Colston
And Brown and Culliver always on the lesser WR’s….
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Unfortunately
We want to move Rogers over the slot whenever we are in Nickel defense and use Cully and Brown over the split end and flanker.
Every time Jamie Dukes says something enlightening and informative about football Jerry Rice and I mount up on our flying grizzly bears and claim pirate treasure from the moon. That's how often it happens.
But thats the problem.
They have four “decent” receivers, all of who could produce during any one game and have throughout the season. No team is going to have four Calvin Johnsons on their team, but I like who they have 2-4. Plus they have the benefit of a QB who can make lesser WRs better. Stopping them all will not be easy.
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We have "decent" DB's too
If Justin and Aldon and McDonald can get after Brees, it’s not as hard as shutting them down, at home, in a hostile environment for them against a pretty damn solid defense… the best they will have faced this year, led by Fangio.
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Gore needs to get healthy and come up big
he hasn’t played that well since the Washington game (w/ the exception of the 2nd Arizona game) and he hurt his ankle. I believe he’s been playing hurt. Since the Giants game (week after the washington game) it seems the offfense has been much more pass happy than it was before. Maybe that’s the team getting more used to the system, but I think it was b/c Gore wasn’t 100% and they were trying to limit him. Either way, he hasn’t been that effective. His avg the last 8 games wasn’t very good (@StL really doesn’t count, I suppose b/c of they were resting him.)
A healthy Gore will allow the team to run the better and control the clock even more. It’ll also set up more short yardage situations on 2nd and 3rd down, which will be helpful to making first downs.
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"Orlando before Zod" doesn't have the same nice ring to it.
by nostocksjustbonds on Jan 5, 2012 1:06 PM PST reply actions
I am sure Gore will 1000% ready to roll.
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Its weird to see how inconsistent Gore was this season.
He had two games where he averaged either 4 or 5 yards per carry, and the rest were either higher or lower. Lets hope he can get it going early and often regardless of who they face.
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Misdirection
Everyone we play is going to be coming hard down on the run to force Alex to beat them. When you have a team crashing the line of scrimmage you can kill them with counter running plays. It’s one of the few times bringing in a tight formation and forcing the defense to stack the box can work to your advantage. If you sell it well enough you can get 8-9 defenders flowing fake side and the cut back can be a huge play.
This is where we need a healthy dose of Kendall Hunter. Get him in the open field and he can take it to the house.
Every time Jamie Dukes says something enlightening and informative about football Jerry Rice and I mount up on our flying grizzly bears and claim pirate treasure from the moon. That's how often it happens.
Misdirection runs...
Yeah, up the gut is not going to work…
And if we play the Saints, we should account for a heavy dose of safety and corner blitzes as well. At least initially. Gregg Williams is going to try and get in Alex’s head early and often. Have to establish that run first against them.
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I agree with this.
Harbaugh and co. have shown some creative plays from time to time, and they are going to need them against the Saints. The only worry would then be getting too cute with the calls, and not playing to the strength of the Niners offense.
Twitter: @Joshuahss
the strength of the Niners offense
is Andy Lee.
I mean, credit where do and all, but “doesn’t turn the ball over”, “fastest tight end in the league” and “curious choice for the pro bowl left tackle” is pretty much the height of superlatives for the 49ers offense. Not that the rest of the team is BAD. It’s OK. There is some potential there.
I think the cute play calls are used a lot because this team simply cannot (in the Singletary mode) force it’s will on the opposing defense. So their sucessful plays are jet sweeps and throwback screens and the occasional deep ball on obvious rushing down. When ever they do the expected (short yardage runs, pass on third and long) they are pretty much stifled.
But trickery and misdirection CAN win the game – as long as the defense keeps it close and you win the turnover battle.
[Poorly Wrought THING] is what Brian Sabean would have made if he were a [THING-maker] instead of a MLB GM
The biggest key for the Niners
Is if they can continue generating turnovers and not turning it over themselves.
extrabaggs
"Just your typical Giants scoring rally: A faceburger on the basepaths, two errors from the second baseman and a bases-loaded balk."
Great list
I think the O-line doing better with protection and converting on 3rd downs are connected. With better protection, Alex makes immensely better throws and they often do not even get to 3rd down. Plus, without sacks 3rd and long’s are much rarer- 3rd and long is when they have real problems.
I also think a good addition to your defensive list is maintaining or increasing pressure on opposing QB’s via the pass rush. This will be very important going up against Brees and Rodgers- they don’t necessarily even have to sack them, but our D-line can NOT give these guys 5+ seconds to make throwing decisions. If they are not rushed and have all day back there to decide where they want to put the ball, they’ll score too many points.

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