Cheap Points in 2011: Is Regression to the Mean Good for the 49ers?

So even if they were to get 1 or 2 more defense or return TDs, the drop in turnovers would likely result in far fewer TDs on offense.

49ers were +28 this year.. there were only 3 other teams with +10 or more.

in terms of there being a lane for the pick-six to happen (for the returner) as well as recovering fumbles that have “scoop and score” potential (outside of the pocket where an athletic defender on his feet can recover the ball).

The points not scored OFF of turnovers is a direct result of offensive inefficiency in the red zone, I feel, though I know that’s not the specific topic here.

I only have a couple memories, including Mays toe tapper on a blocked punt.

Side note, I think the 49ers have 4 defense and special teams TDs at least. They have Ginn’s 2, Rogers int TD, and Andy Lee to Crabtree.

dropped the number of total kick and punt return totals. Apparently the Niners were 5th-most penalized ST unit in terms of number of flags, and 6th-most in terms of yardage.

… there’s no cheap points in the National Football League , 28 plus turn overs simply means , that there was 28 times the other team didn’t get a chance to score , hence the 13-3 record …!!

While, statistically speaking, there might appear to be more chances for defensive touchdowns the more a defense forces opponents to turn the ball over, this supposition fails to take into account where the turnovers are occurring; an interception at your opponent’s 1 yard line is certainly going to be easier to convert into a touchdown than say, a fumble recovered at your own 1 yard line. I’m more curious as to where the forced turnovers are occurring, rather than how many touchdowns the defensive is creating on their own, because if the turnovers are closer to the team’s end zone, I think those turnovers are more important because (A) they prevented the opponent from scoring, and, (B) the opponent burned clock during their own drive, thereby shortening the amount of time remaining with which they can score.

Likewise, I think a correlation between special teams touchdowns and special teams yardage is an attempt to just force statistics to fit a picture where it doesn’t fit. Generally speaking, if a team has a good number of special teams touchdowns, its because the returner is especially skilled; however, once such a returner has stuck his head up and made himself known (through a significant number of kick return touchdowns), other teams will gameplay around the returner by simply not kicking the ball to the returner, thereby reducing the returner’s use; in reverse, a returning who can put up a lot of yards without becoming sticking out by putting up a lot of touchdowns is actually helping his team’s cause because he’s doing good work without drawing attention to himself to a point where other teams are reluctant to kick to him.

I feel like a lot of defensive TDs rely on luck and while that should even out over time, it’s completely unpredictable and there’s nothing that says it has to even out over a season, which is a fairly small sample size when you consider how often they happen.

Add on to the fact that we’re only guaranteed to play one playoff game, this question seems to imply, will the Niners score a defensive TD in our next game? Maybe. But I don’t feel these statistics are any reason to expect that we will just based purely off the fact that we’re “DUE” for one.

Honestly, I don’t think there’s any such thing as being “due for one” when it comes to this kind of thing. It’s like flipping a coin 10 times. The first 4 times it comes up heads, so you think it’s due to land on tails, but the chances of it occurring are still only 50%.

…so we’re due for regression in both directions. Overall, however, I suspect any expected regression will hurt more than it helps us. In particular, we’ve benefited from some very fortunately timed turnovers (e.g., against Philly). Because turnovers can heavily influence wins and losses despite being random, a high ratio of takeaways to turnovers is a major indicator of a team that’s likely to regress in terms of record.

I’d rather the defense makes sure to secure a pick instead of return it for 6.

As the quality of opponent gets better, you would expect less defense/special teams points, and almost zero trick points (aka Akers-Crabtree/Lee-Goodwin touchdowns).

I think it’s reasonable (but not certain) to suppose that given the number of turnovers garnered and punt/ko return yards, the Niners probably are “short” a few TDs from average.

BUT what is not pointed out is how this translates indirectly to points. Take, for example, Ginn’s punt return that got him tackled at the opponents 5. This is really rare for a punt return – usually if you get that close to then endzone on a return you score. But in an average, aggregate sense (which is the only sensible sense when you are dealing with regression to the mean), that return was worth nearly as many “average points” as an actual TD. The difference is maybe 2 points, not the 7 that actually go on the board. Similarly the difference in value – say WPA – between an INT with a big return and a TD and no TD is not really that great. It’s basically 3 points + 1 point per 10 yards of field position change (yes, this means if your opponent is on the 10 and throws a pick in the endzone that you run back to the other 10 is worth MORE than 7 points… because of the “net average” points you removed from the offense (who was probably going to score something anyway).

So the regression in terms of actual points the 49ers could expect from turning a couple returns into “actual” TDs is far less than 7 X Number of TD returns!

As I am currently spacing out with Above & Beyond busting through my speakers. Keep it at a three sentence maximum! Savvy?

…the Niners defense and ST’s have given the offense the ball on the opponents side of the 50 yard line more than any other team in the NFL this season. The offense gets a short field more than any other team in the NFL,so all this fact really shows is that our offense is really worse than we thought.
But we have been winning with defense and ST’s and a running game and some help by a few good plays a game by the QB,so all this means is that we need then to keep doing what they have been doing and if we get more help from the QB then that will just be gravy ! GO Niners !
SB # 6 on the way !!!

Usually when you score on a pick it’s when you jump a short route and there isn’t anyone between you and the end zone. I’ve noticed our guys don’t jump the short route — maybe they are coached not to take the risk of giving up the big play?

We’re leading the league in turnover ratio, so could it possibly regress and we force less turnovers and turn the ball over more in the playoffs?