49ers Vs. Saints: Where Do Frank Gore And Kendall Hunter Factor In?
by David Fucillo on Jan 9, 2012 3:09 PM PST
in 2012 NFL Playoffs
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PrintOne of the common comments about the 49ers offense facing off against the Saints defense is the idea that the Frank Gore and the 49ers will need to dominate the rushing attack in order to keep Drew Brees and the Saints offense off the field. Frank Gore put together his second best single season total, finishing with 1,211 yards on 4.3 yards per carry.
The folks at Football Outsiders put together a rundown of the five most overrated players from 2011 and Frank Gore was included with Cedric Benson, Plaxico Burress, Marcedes Lewis and Pierre Garcon. They included Gore based more on his boom-bust tendencies. In their success rate statistic, FO ranks Gore 45th among running backs. Success rate for a running back is based on "the percentage of carries where the player gains 40% of needed yards on first down, 60% of needed yards on second down, or 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down."
Gore put together a very strong stretch in October/November in which he rushed for 100+ yards in five straight games, with the first four all at 125+ yards. Since then he peaked at 88 yards and we have seen the 49ers try and work Kendall Hunter into the mix a bit more frequently. FO ranks Hunter No. 30 in success rate among running backs.
As the team has mixed and matched Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter, there have been times I've figured the team was getting Gore some much needed rest to get his legs ready for his first postseason. He is only 30 carries away from his career high in 2006 and an extended postseason run would probably shoot him past that 312 mark.
Over the last two weeks, Kendall Hunter has had his highest carry totals of his rookie season. He rushed 12 times for 73 yards against the Seahawks and 16 times for 76 yards against the St. Louis Rams. On the other hand, Frank Gore rushed 23 times for 83 yards against the Seahawks and seven times for 9 yards against the Rams. It is worth noting that Gore was most definitely sat for much of the game.
Although Gore has not surpassed 100 yards since November 6, it is premature to start saying he's losing something. We had the same discussion early in the season when he had 148 yards through three games. At the same time, the 49ers have shown a willingness to get Hunter in the mix and Hunter has stepped up his game the last couple weeks.
I still think Gore gets the bulk of the carries, but the 49ers have left the Saints something to think about with their developing RB duo. The Saints rush defense is a question mark. They rank 12th in total yards, but that ranking is inflated by playing with sizable leads and forcing teams to get into shootouts with them. They rank tied for second to last in yards per carry allowed at 5.0. That could also be a bit inflated given that defending more against the pass can open them up to some gashing runs underneath.
Football Outsiders ranks them No. 21 in rush defense efficiency and also No. 21 in adjusted line yards (which removes QB scrambles from the equation). You can pick and choose how you want to assess the Saints, but it is safe to say that if the 49ers work to establish the run early on and don't give up too many early points, they should be able to have at least some success. Alex Smith and his receivers will need to make plays in the passing game, but it will be essential to get a solid rushing attack going.
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We all know what the Saints gonna do...crowd the line of scrimmage
try to frustrate Frank Gore & our run game and Yes…force Alex Smith to PROVE he can beat them.
The Saints want Alex to PROVE to them he is a playoff caliber Q.B.
by BigMar on Jan 9, 2012 3:13 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
then stretch plays
Everyone one the line? Run away from them.
by mcwagner on Jan 9, 2012 3:14 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Steelers said they were surprised and did not think Tebow could throw long accurately...
Tebow caught thenm off guard, his average pass play per attempt was 30 plus …and he connected!
Bottom Line point
Alex is going to have to also PROVE he can throw all the passes, and throw them accuratly as we all know the Saints will indeed force Alex to Prove what type of playoff caliber Q.B. he is.
Saints priority NUMBER ONE….stall the 9ers Run Game, and put it all on Alex, O-Line & WR’s.
try to stall the run game
It’s not that easy.
by mcwagner on Jan 9, 2012 4:22 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
well he yards per attempt was actually 15
per completed was 31.6
by sanfranfanmdk on Jan 9, 2012 4:34 PM PST up reply actions
Too funny ...
… force Alex Smith to PROVE he can beat them…
more like proving the O line can’t pick up the blitz , lets keep one thing in mind folks , games are won and loss upfront , this is the key , can our O Line pick up the blitz and protect Smith and company too make plays down the field and can the front Seven put enough pressure on Brees & company to keep all their play makers in check … That’s the Questions …!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!
by Edggy on Jan 9, 2012 5:49 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Here here!
If our o-line plays lights out and minimizes pressure, we will win this game.
Alex Smith Will Win a Superbowl
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Alex-Smith-Will-Win-a-Superbowl/205058042848290
Yea right, its a mixture of both. Stafford faced the blitz and got the ball out in 2 seconds or less on their best drives. Alex struggles with pre snap reads and its easy to see. He makes those throws and he makes it easy on the OL and himself. You can’t hold the ball for 3.5 seconds vs the blitz in this league. Alex does have fault on some of his sacks.
"What the hell are you mixing in that look-aid"
Stafford has the best WR in the game to throw to, who catches passes with quadruple coverage, there's the difference
i don’t blame him for not taking too man chances, i haven’t seen too many times where any of the WR’s or TE’s on this team will fight and out muscle for a jump ball
by sanfranfanmdk on Jan 9, 2012 6:41 PM PST up reply actions
That has nothing to do with getting the ball out quick.
Stafford threw for 3500 yards to his other WRs…
"What the hell are you mixing in that look-aid"
In Johnsons case for sure it does
Because Stafford knows that no matter what the coverage, all he has to do is put in his general area and he’ll most likely be the one that comes down with it.
by sanfranfanmdk on Jan 11, 2012 8:53 AM PST up reply actions
Disagree with that
In the Pittsburgh game, the announcers mentioned constantly that Alex was making perfect quick throws to counter the Pittsburgh blitz. He’s proved he can perform well against a better blitzing defense than the Saints
by merothehero on Jan 10, 2012 12:36 AM PST up reply actions
are you alex smith’s mom? have you ever said one critical thing about him in your life?
"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais
by MichaelClutchtree on Jan 9, 2012 7:42 PM PST up reply actions
Are you his mean older brother?
Have you ever said a single nice thing about the man?
He has some flaws, but you are definitely “the glass is more than half empty, and probably filled with rat poison.”
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Jan 9, 2012 8:57 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Yup , but the differences between me and you is ...
… I’ve played the game so i keep it real , knowing that every pass will Not be completed nor will every catchable catch be caught , not every tackle can be made … there’s to many varibles in this game at this level to think it’s just black or white , also know that this is the ultimate TEAM game and what entails for any given play to be properly executed is beyond your scope of knowing how many details are involved …!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!
Perfectly said!
He has to have time to throw the ball in order to be successful, if the OLine can keep him clean the 9ers have got a real shot!
The reason Drew Brees is a great quarterback
is because even when his line breaks down (and it often does), he will dance in the pocket and make a great throw down field. That’s what we need out of Alex Smith. No finger pointing, just results.
by asmithisaverage on Jan 10, 2012 1:03 PM PST up reply actions
Gore has been playing at 80%
In a playoff game he’ll give himself up & run with reckless ummmm oh, abandon.
Gore's going to get a bigger % of snaps
he’s not just important in moving the chains, but in protecting against the blitz. i don’t doubt that we see a whole lot of frank this weekend.
also, i expect to see another, maybe a few, designed screens to kendall. the middle screen was flawless against the rams. more of that should be implemented vs the blitzing saints.
agree with the screens to KH
We got pwned last time, or I should really say Alex did. A few shots of Hunter ripping up the Saints secondary should calm that down this time around.
by marinfrs on Jan 9, 2012 3:58 PM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
I truly believe Gore
will kick it up a notch; it’s his first playoff game EVER. Add to that he will line up across his high school/college teammate Vilma, who he used to have epic battles in practices with.
And Aubrayo Franklin will be there to stuff him....
unless of course Johnatone Goodwin,Mike Iupati & Adam Synder take on the “Honey Badger” attitude ….“Weeez dont give a Sh _ t, who in front of us we gonna plow their silly big butts out of there!”
meh,
Aubrayo is has not been much of a factor for them.. 17 tackles 0 sacks all year. I can understand that line if he were a NT, but he’s in the 4-3 now.
things have changed since the preseason game
But I’m quite sure we’ll see a barrage of blitzing like the first game. The Saints and Ravens made the point and AS will have to prove he can find the opens under huge duress and at the same time, Roman needs to show he can draft up some good screens and slants.
by marinfrs on Jan 9, 2012 3:46 PM PST via iPhone app reply actions
Reading this I remember my Mark Twain...
Frank Gore is ranked 45 among running backs in the league? There are indeed lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Kendall Hunter breaks out
He’s going to break either a screen pass or a quick hitter between the tackles. Or both.
"It's impossible to hide the fire inside" - Bob Seger
Somebody let me know when they start measure revolutions-per-throw on the football.
Let's giggity giggity Go 49ers!!!
Weeeeeez gots to SACK Brees !
As much as Brees throws throws, which is a lot…..he has been sacked ONLY 24 times.
Thank about that…..just 24 freak’en times.
by BigMar on Jan 9, 2012 4:16 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
He gets the ball out quickly
And their play action is really effective, because they have good backs and good guards.
It isn't just that
Brees stays in the pocket as it collapses around him and keeps his eyes down field. It is amazing to see him glide away from the pressure and delivery a strike despite terrible pass protection.
by asmithisaverage on Jan 10, 2012 1:06 PM PST up reply actions
Basically, Aldon, Ahmad and J Smith have to step up
But they won’t be able to do it alone. We’re going to need pressure up the middle, and to mix in some very well executed blitzes.
Fortunately
the linebackers we would theoretically be blitzing up the middle are rather fleet of foot.
I want to see Brees get Smith’d™, but I also wouldn’t mind seeing him get Willis’d or Bowman’d.
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Jan 9, 2012 8:59 PM PST up reply actions
I don't think that the Niners will be blitzing much, if at all
The front 4 in nickel package have to bring in the pressure. Niners will mostly play bend-but-not-break defense, and then have Willis blanket Graham in the red zone.
Pysched
I can’t wait to see K-Dubs brake a quick slant for a big gain on one of those Blitzes. It will happen at least twice.
Semper Gumbi-always flexible
by Military49er on Jan 9, 2012 4:20 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Williams could be under the radar for them.
Check out my site!! Sign up for a free account @
The Hometown Fan
Williams is under the radar for everyone.
He is a great, sneaky receiver. Speedy and shifty and can catch well. If Harbaugh ends up unloading the passing game Williams should certainly be in the mix.
Let's giggity giggity Go 49ers!!!
FO's 'success' factor most pretentious statistic in all of sports
This is a number that falls out of a model whose veracity I trust about as much as one that uses sunspots and goat entrails. I’d love to see how it performs out of sample, to say nothing of whether the factors themselves are remotely stationary. Love, mostly because I’d wager it’d be embarrassing, and those guys definitely need to be taken down a notch.
Think about it- is there anything inherent to Gore’s running this season that suggests that the proportion of Gore’s runs that are 4 yards or more (or its equivalent outside of 1st down) couldn’t be drastically increased? If there’s anything systematic here, it’s due to the entire 11 guys and the play calling, which have at times killed our offensive rhythm, and had Gore running on obvious downs out of obvious formations into team portraits.
But even at the team level, we’ve seen how how good the rushing attack can be when the protections and run-blocking are decisive, the play-calling sharp and Alex and his receivers are on (e.g. Tampa, Arizona at home, etc.). More importantly, we’ve seen the improvement and the retrogression in the wide ranges of offensive performance from week to week this season, and its trend toward the better.
All of that to say that if anyone is overrated here, it’s FO. Numbers can be complimentary in the hands of the adroit, and are a critical tool for screening large quantities of observational data, but the naked eye is still the vastly superior way to evaluate talent. By that standard, Gore is no Peterson (who FO infamously also hate), but he’s still a top 15 back.
by BKisforSF on Jan 9, 2012 4:29 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
So you're saying that not even the proverbial "Grain of Salt"
Renders the assessment ingurgitable?
It's been a long time coming, And the tables' turned around
Cause one of us is goin', One of us is goin' down
Something like that
I’m saying that to the extent the stat adds anything at all, that information is likely to be at least conditional, if not otherwise refined/nuanced, (e.g. it’d be extraordinarily heroic to assume you’d be able to base statements about who is ‘better’ on the basis of the simplistically aggregated raw data). I’m also saing that coaxing out that underlying significance would require thoughtful and measured interpretation in any case.
FO does none of this. They strip the thing out raw, which is largely a function of the subjectively derived structure of their model, average it over a season, and then impute awesome powers to it that are capable of showing the plebes why their quaint evaluations of players are all wrong because their lying eyes can’t hold a candle to this black box statistical model of football games about whose veracity we know virtually nothing. And who are we to challenge the Great and Powerful Oz?
Speaking of which, of course since that thing is all ‘secret sauce’, these guys have a handy excuse to never release the details by which they would be crucified, so we’re stuck with the unwarranted authority they’ve already gained.
On second thought, what you said.
C'mon man!
If Gore is overrated, then why do people insist on devaluing Alex Smith’s performance? Gotta give somebody credit here FO! Can’t be knocking everybody on the 49ers offense!
Affectionately,
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar,
NBA’s All-Time Leading Scorer
by afrikabamboodle on Jan 9, 2012 4:45 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Hunter the Future
Gore can’t break the behind the line of scrimmage tackle – Kendall Hunter can.
I like Gore, but he gets a little dance-y behind the line of scrimmage and it NEVER works out for him.
Right now, 50/50 for Gore/Hunter works for me.
Really , Gore dance at theline of scrimmage , think you got your players mixed up there Bro ...!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!
Frank Gore
is one of the most technically sound backs in the NFL. Get’s dancy? Thats absolutely absurd. No back in the NFL right now has a more deliberate “one cut, hit the hole” move than Frank.
He never dances. Just because sometimes there is a DT staring him down two yards behind the line of scrimmage as soon as he gets the handoff doesn’t mean its Frank’s fault he cannot get out of it. Few RBs can.
Hunter is far behind Frank in that aspect. And to be honest, I doubt he ever gets close to where Frank is as far as picking his hole immediately and busting up in it. Not sure Hunter will ever be a feature back.
And to say he is overrated (FO, not you) is ridiculous and proves the meaninglessness of random statistics. I’m sure any OC/HC in this league would love to have Frank.
by brenrobb on Jan 10, 2012 12:31 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
You'll get crucified for saying that
But you are right. It does sometimes work out for him, but that’s who he is.
He’s an extremely patient back with excellent vision and alot of times he’s waiting for the big crease that just doesn’t show up. And it doesn’t help that even though we call him “the Tank” he pretty much just delivers a hit as he goes to the ground. We’ve seen more powerful stiffarms and shoulder charges from Kyle Williams.
Our line and coaching doesn’t help him much there. We want to line up in heavy sets which bring 9 and 10 into the box without leaving them vulnerable to the pass, and Iupati and Davis are often the only guys who can move a pile. Staley can direct his man well, but while Snyder is good on the move he can’t move hardly anybody straight up and Goodwin isn’t any better.
Many times Hunter does better because he’s not so patient and just explodes into the hole and his sheer speed and low center of gravity get him through no hole for 4-5 where Frank would be stopped for -1.
Every time Jamie Dukes says something enlightening and informative about football Jerry Rice and I mount up on our flying grizzly bears and claim pirate treasure from the moon. That's how often it happens.
Ummm Fooch ... ( Where Do ) ...!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!
where do...
where do they factor into the gameplan. How, where, whatever.
by David Fucillo on Jan 9, 2012 6:03 PM PST up reply actions
this game is about pressure
Can we get enough pressure on drew brees and can Alex handle the saints blitzes……I think he can. And we have to get pressure on brees, can’t let him sit back there all day…..gore having a big day will just make the job a little easier
by texasniner31 on Jan 9, 2012 6:38 PM PST via mobile reply actions
1st play of the game
i would love to see a play action deep pass, if it works great, if it dosent it will back off the safeties somewhat…bombs away!!!
by Frisco_Kid on Jan 9, 2012 6:52 PM PST via mobile reply actions
I think we all acknowledged...
Frank had lost a step this season. This FO thing doesn’t surprise me. I just hope the Niners have the Old Frank back for the playoffs.
As evidenced by the fact that he is the only back this season to go 4 straight games with 125+ yards and a TD
Sufficiently advanced sarcasm is indistinguishable from being an @$$hole.
by So. Cal. Niner. Fan. on Jan 9, 2012 10:42 PM PST up reply actions
Bill Romonowski said 9ers lose by 10 points...
Only chance 9ers have is if they knock the crap out of (1) Brees or (2) their WR’s.
said simpl to much firepower on Saints side.
Firepower?
Or perhaps the inability of the officials to see blatant choke holds and tackles by the Saints OL? That could prove problematic actually…
It's been a long time coming, And the tables' turned around
Cause one of us is goin', One of us is goin' down
Romo does make some valid points....Rams beat Saints by Sacking Brees 6 times
and generally putting him until pressure throughout the game.
Clearly the 49ers have to un-nerve and cause havoc upon Brees or it will be a long day for 49ers.
By the way….. I have a cousin who is a Big Saints fan, knows them in & out. His take is the Saints do not believe that Alex Smith can handle pressure well, they will make a Big, Big effort to stop Gore, Hunter, running game.
Saints whole goal is to get ahead quickly, force the 9ers to play catch up and throw everything including a dead honey badger at our O-Line & Alex while going Blitz Crazy.
My point is that it's difficult to pressure Brees
When his line is allowed to hold to the extent that I saw in that Lions game. It was ridiculous and I don’t like DET. Plus, they’ve been chipping a lot since said Rams game. If the officials are willing to call holding on NO, I’m fine with Brees having an “off” day.
It's been a long time coming, And the tables' turned around
Cause one of us is goin', One of us is goin' down
I HATE Romonowski
i can and wont ever forget him spitting JJ Stokes face, biggest insult anyone can do to another human in my opinion…cant belive CSN hired him!!!
by Frisco_Kid on Jan 9, 2012 9:15 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I didn't like him even when he was with the 9ers
Always thought he was a no-class player. The later incidents with Stokes, having his wife set up to take the rap for dealing “diet pills”, his attitude in any interview; those just verify the early take and go from no-class player to no-class human being.
Today's Justin Smith :: Yesterday's Bryant Young
by OffensiveInterference on Jan 10, 2012 10:09 AM PST up reply actions
Bill Romospitowski said 9ers lose by 10 points...
“Only chance 9ers have is if they knock the crap out of (1) Brees or (2) their WR’s.
said simpl to much firepower on Saints side."
The 9ers defense has demonstrated time and again this season that they are not timid and they know how to apply pressure. As critical as this part of the game is, it is not the 9ers “only chance”. Takeaways are huge, and we lead the league. Special teams play a big part as well, and ours are first rate. On the offensive side, we need to protect the ball (as usual) and we need to establish a strong rushing attack and execute good play calling to keep the Saints pass rush honest and hopefully off-balance. All doable, against any opponent. Not much room for error against this elite team.
I’d like to see someone knock the crap out of Romospitowski just for the heck of it.
Whats interesting is this is an old fashion matchup of sorts...........
There is now way to know analize this game! We’ll all just have to wait and see what happens on Sat!!
Miami vs. 49ers Superbowl....sounds a lot like what will happen Saturday.
``We could see we could move the ball on them almost immediately,`` Walsh said. ``We were a little quicker on offense than they were on defense and we figured coming in we could take advantage of that.
``There was one play in particular I wish we could have run, but things were going so well, we didn`t need it. Too bad, it probably would have worked.``
There wasn`t much that didn`t work against the Dolphins (16-3), whose one-dimensional attack — all passing — was no match for a San Francisco team loaded in every phase.
``It came to pass that Miami played a better team and was beaten,`` Walsh said.
``Sometime in the future we might play as well as we did against Miami. But it`s hard to imagine us playing any better. It was the greatest game I`ve ever had a team play.``
The surprising factor wasn`t that the 49ers and MVP quarterback Joe Montana moved the ball on the Miami defense; most teams have been able to do that. What seemed hard to believe was how the San Francisco defense dominated Dan Marino and his high-powered offense.
The Dolphins had been averaging 32 points and 433.5 yards a game. The 49ers held them to 16 points and 314 yards. The unstoppable offense ran into a red-and-gold brick wall.
"The year we beat Miami in the Super Bowl, ... do you know how many defensive linemen were in our rotation? Nine, and we used them all quite a bit. We just wore the Dolphins out."
Bill Walsh quote
by Iupati_like_its_1999 on Jan 9, 2012 9:32 PM PST reply actions
That was the year Marino became the first QB to pass for over 5000 yds
And the Niners’ D held them to 25 yds rushing even though they were playing dime most of the game. 4 sacks, a couple INT… So definitely some interesting similarities. But that ’84 offense was near the top of the NFL in scoring that season so…. This team has the edge in ST though. I feel good about it.
It's been a long time coming, And the table's turned around
Cause one of us is goin', One of us is goin' down
Tomorrow Night NFL network is playing the 82 nfc championship aka the game the catch happened in
just thought i let it be known just in case someone wanted to catch the game. a few niner things on nfl network tomorrow
Does anyone think it’s an advantage for the niners o-line to know how Franklin plays nt.
by mrb24 on Jan 10, 2012 12:07 AM PST via mobile reply actions
Everybody is saying it, and it's right
We will win a physical game.
If we come out forcing their receivers to fight to get off the line and have pressure coming from 12 different directions at Brees, we can not only win it we can run them out of town with their tail between their legs.
But if we come out playing off zone with vanilla pressure schemes we don’t have a chance. We will not win a game where we let Drew Brees stand back in the pocket for 3-4 seconds and pick which free running target to throw to. Our secondary is good, but no secondary in the NFL is good enough to fill that order.
Every time Jamie Dukes says something enlightening and informative about football Jerry Rice and I mount up on our flying grizzly bears and claim pirate treasure from the moon. That's how often it happens.
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