FanPost

Where are we in the playoff race?

How do we stack up against the rest of the division as far as tiebreakers go? What do we need to do to ensure at least a wild card spot? Other than win out, I mean. That's what I decided to find out.

I broke up the schedules of the four teams into NFC West, NFC North, AFC East and the non-common NFC games. Taking a look here we see who's falling behind and who's ahead when it comes to tiebreakers.

For anyone who doesn't know, the first four tiebreakers are:

  1. Head-to-head
  2. Division record
  3. Common record
  4. Conference record

DIVISION GAMES

St. Louis: 2 - 0, v.SEA(W), v.ARI(W), @SF, @ARI, v.SF, @SEA

Arizona: 1 - 1, v.SEA(W), @STL, v.SF, v.STL, @SEA, @SF

Seattle: 0 - 2, @ARI, @STL, @SF, v.ARI, v.SF, v.STL

San Francisco: 0 - 0, v.SEA, @ARI, v.STL, @STL, @SEA, v.ARI

The Rams are out to an early lead in the division. The Niners haven't played one game yet but are already in a hole. Fortunately for us, the Seahawks are in an even deeper hole having lost both of their division games. With only four games remaining, or six for San Francisco, it's on the rest of the division to catch up to St. Louis right now. The Niners start their division schedule this week and need a win to keep up with the Rams and Cards.

NFCN GAMES

Seattle: 1 - 0, v.GB(W), @DET, v.MIN, @CHI

San Francisco: 2 - 1, @GB(W), v.DET(W), @MIN, v.CHI

St. Louis: 0 - 2, @DET, @CHI, v.GB, v.MIN

Arizona: 0 - 0, @MIN, @GB, v.DET, v.CHI

I don't think any of us can imagine Arizona winning all four of their NFC North games, especially with how they've been playing the last couple games. They could go 2-2 though which means the Niners need to win that Bears game. That would also help put more of the load on the Seahawks to win out their three remaining if they want to have the advantage. St. Louis is playing to break even at this point. They're upcoming game versus Green Bay is a must-win for them.

AFCE GAMES

San Francisco: 2 - 0, @NYJ(W), v.BUF(W), v.MIA, @NE

Seattle: 1 - 0, v.NE(W), v.NYJ, @MIA, @BUF

Arizona: 2 - 1, @NE(W), v.MIA(W), v.BUF, @NYJ

St. Louis: 0 - 1, @MIA, v.NE, v.NYJ, @BUF

Good start for the Niners and the Seahawks. Bad start for the Rams. With the wins over New England, it's hard to see Seattle or Arizona losing their remaining AFC East games. With how hot-and-cold the Jets and Bills are playing and how close the Dolphins are playing everybody, anything could happen the rest of the season.

COMMON GAMES RECORD

San Francisco: 5 - 1

Arizona: 3 - 2

Seattle: 2 - 2

St. Louis: 2 - 3

With San Francisco at a combined 5-1 in common games, the onus is on everyone else in the NFC West to keep up. The Niners have three games left while the Rams have lost three games so far. They're pretty much out of the race. Arizona's next common game is this week. They're not in must-win mode yet, but I think they will be if they lose in Minnesota.

NON-COMMON GAMES

Seattle: 2 - 0, v.DAL(W), @CAR(W)

Arizona: 1 - 0, v.PHI(W), @ATL

St. Louis: 1 - 0, v.WAS(W), @TB

San Francisco: 0 - 1, v.NYG, @NO

Non-common games contribute to the conference record and while it makes winning that fourth tiebreaker easier, it's not wholly necessary. Still, it behooves the Niners to beat the Saints to keep up in this category, especially with the Seahawks winning both their games.

CONFERENCE RECORD

Arizona: 2 - 1

Seattle: 3 - 2

St. Louis: 3 - 2

San Francisco: 2 - 2

San Francisco has fallen behind in conference record. They have two more non-division games and all six division games left to catch up. It's not as bad as it looks however. St. Louis may be 3-2, but two of those wins are in the division. Catching up in the division over the next couple of weeks should put the Niners closer to having the advantage in this tiebreaker.

If the season ended right now, according to NFL.com and ESPN.com the 49ers would just miss the playoffs; edged out by the Seahawks due to conference record. The two teams are technically tied in common games record right now because not all the common games have been played yet.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Niners Nation

You must be a member of Niners Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Niners Nation. You should read them.

Join Niners Nation

You must be a member of Niners Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Niners Nation. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker