FanPost

Alex Smith Stat Prediction Game: Week Seven

I forgot that having a TNF game this week meant that, shockingly, my usual plan of posting on Fridays just wasn't going to cut it this week, so this one's a bit late. Apologies, all! A friendly reminder: if the game post isn't up in time, please feel free to leave a prediction in the previous week's thread. Just let me know later, and I'll include your prediction.

Things I learned while watching the 49ers get demolished live at Candlestick, in handy list format:
  • My Justin Smith jersey and the actual Justin Smith can never be within 200 yards of each other. When this occurs, the sheer weight of awesome is enough to create a black hole of suck that swallows the team we love. I will stick to wielding my Smith jersey in the safety of my own home.
  • Kaep needs to work on his receiving chemistry with Alex. At one point after things had begun to fall apart, Alex and Kaep were keeping loose on the sideline by tossing the football back and forth. I watched a hilarious sequence of Kaep bobbling and dropping three easy Smith lobs in a row and growing increasingly embarrassed, bless.
  • I need to refrain from wearing a hair elastic around my wrist unless I want a bizarre little tan ring on my wrist the next day.
  • Though I believe him when he says it wasn't a factor in the INTs, I do think Alex's finger was bothering him a bit. While keeping warm on the sideline, I saw him flex his throwing hand gingerly a few times.
  • I picked the wrong week to watch the correct end of a Candlestick blowout. I knew I should've gone to the Bills game instead....


And now back to the topic at hand: Alex Smith. Ultimate troll, or ultimate troll? Just when he's got us right where he wants us, in optimistic cloud nine, he sends us all crashing back to earth. Someone needs to pull him aside and explain to him that the proper execution of "pulling a Manning" goes thusly: throw three picks early in the game (this is crucial) and heroically battle your way back with an equal or greater number of TDs in the second half (this is also crucial). And your name has to be Manning, or your success rate goes down dramatically. That, or he was trying to be more like QB role models such as Cutler, Rivers, and Romo.

And so the question this week remains the same: how well do you really know Alex Smith? Is he the near-perfect QB of two games ago? Or the QB who got into the Halloween spirit and handed out INTs like candy last game? Or old, steady, reliable Alex of the first four weeks? All of the above? Which one will we see this week? That's where you all come in.

Still, all was not doom and gloom in the scoring world, although we only had four people break the 4.0 point barrier last week. The top five last week includes five veterans and some names familiar from prior weeks' top five lists: rlott#42, Drew Kerr, See Jay, Desert Dog Runner, and Delmuir.

There's also been some shakeups in the leaderboard. Shakeups you may or may not see, depending on how late it gets as I write this post. But enough of the past, let's review the rules of the present.

Unlike the subject of this game, the rules are simple. Guess Alex Smith's passing stat line for the upcoming game (Seattle Seahawks at 49ers) using the following format in the comments below.

Attempts:
Completions:
Yards:
TDs:
INTs:
Sacks:
Rushing Yards (Optional):
Rushing TDs (Optional):


Feel free to revise your numbers all the way up to game time. I'll use only the most recent guess. If you want to update your numbers, please reply to your original comment with the revised guess.

NOTE: Although I'm not currently scoring rushing stats (yards and TDs), I'm considering doing something with them at some point. For now, if you'd like to add rushing stats to your guess, please do. I'll highlight the person with the closest rushing predictions in the results column.

Scoring:

The scoring is based on a 6-point system, with each of the following metrics accounting for a point: Attempts, Completion % (calculated from Cmp/Att numbers), Yards, TDs, INTs, and Sacks. It's a bit dry, but for the curious, here is how each of the metrics are scored:

Attempts: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualAtt - AttGuessed) / 12)

Completion %: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualComp% - (CompGuessed/AttGuessed * 100)) / 15)

Yards: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualYards - YardsGuessed) / 100)

TDs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualTDs - TDsGuessed) / 3)

INTs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualINTs - INTsGuessed) / 3)

Sacks: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualSacks - SacksGuessed) / 5)

The six scoring categories are added up to produce a composite score. The maximum that can be scored is 6 points; the minimum is 0. I'll keep a running leaderboard throughout the season, along with posting the weekly results.

WEEK SIX RESULTS

Welcome to another edition of the extremely abridged results section, where I'm just going to highlight a handful of interesting tidbits. Drew Kerr, impressively, was the only person to predict more than 1 INT (2). Meanwhile, my erstwhile leaderboard nemesis, rlott#42, had an eerily accurate stat line aside from the TDs and INTs--increasing his separation at the top of the leaderboard. Wisely, no one predicted 0 sacks. Unluckily, no one predicted 0 TDs. Newbie papa.gomes set a season record for lowest score recorded: 1.15 points.

Also, I am taking this opportunity to revoke liberty_JAC's internet cookies, for jinxing Alex Smith with an otherwise excellent post on his historically low interception rank.

Here is what Alex Smith's week against the relentless NY Giants looked like:

Att Comp Comp % Yds TDs INTs Sacks Rush Yds Rush TDs
30 19 63.3% 200 0 3 4 5 0

And here are the Week Six rankings:

Rank User Att Comp Comp % Yds TDs INTs Sacks A B C D E F Score
1 rlott#42 31 20 64.5% 197 2 1 3 0.92 0.92 0.97 0.33 0.33 0.80 4.27
2 Drew Kerr 30 23 76.7% 225 1 2 4 1.00 0.11 0.75 0.67 0.67 1.00 4.20
3 See Jay 31 22 71.0% 228 1 1 4 0.92 0.49 0.72 0.67 0.33 1.00 4.13
4 Desert Dog Runner 29 19 65.5% 237 2 1 4 0.92 0.85 0.63 0.33 0.33 1.00 4.06
5 Delmuir 29 18 62.1% 206 2 0 2 0.92 0.92 0.94 0.33 0.00 0.60 3.71
6 PNK 31 21 67.7% 254 2 0 3 0.92 0.71 0.46 0.33 0.00 0.80 3.22
7 DeafWriterJC 33 21 63.6% 277 3 1 3 0.75 0.98 0.23 0.00 0.33 0.80 3.09
8 Katydid 29 20 69.0% 251 2 0 2 0.92 0.62 0.49 0.33 0.00 0.60 2.96
9 Bravedown50 32 23 71.9% 263 2 0 4 0.83 0.43 0.37 0.33 0.00 1.00 2.96
10 reedkrase 30 21 70.0% 244 2 0 1 1.00 0.55 0.56 0.33 0.00 0.40 2.84
11 16to80fan 31 23 74.2% 248 2 0 3 0.92 0.27 0.52 0.33 0.00 0.80 2.84
12 Average 30 22 73.3% 262 2 0 3 1.00 0.33 0.38 0.33 0.00 0.80 2.84
13 Aaron Emerson 29 22 75.9% 256 2 0 3 0.92 0.16 0.44 0.33 0.00 0.80 2.65
14 bradyk2 30 23 76.7% 272 2 0 3 1.00 0.11 0.28 0.33 0.00 0.80 2.52
15 ILNinerNut 28 21 75.0% 221 3 0 2 0.83 0.22 0.79 0.00 0.00 0.60 2.44
16 djww 30 20 66.7% 360 4 0 2 1.00 0.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 2.37
17 sik49er 29 21 72.4% 256 3 0 2 0.92 0.39 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.60 2.35
18 ak4niner 32 25 78.1% 248 2 0 2 0.83 0.01 0.52 0.33 0.00 0.60 2.29
19 4ty9er 30 23 76.7% 255 3 0 2 1.00 0.11 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.60 2.16
20 liberty_JAC 28 21 75.0% 256 3 0 2 0.83 0.22 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.60 2.09
21 Ni9er 28 22 78.6% 280 2 0 2 0.83 0.00 0.20 0.33 0.00 0.60 1.96
22 Edggy 34 25 73.5% 302 2 0 2 0.67 0.32 0.00 0.33 0.00 0.60 1.92
23 49erLou 31 26 83.9% 289 3 0 3 0.92 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.80 1.83
24 Grabtree15 25 20 80.0% 275 3 0 2 0.58 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.60 1.43
25 sanluisobispo49ers 33 28 84.8% 322 3 0 2 0.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 1.35
26 papa.gomes 33 26 78.8% 340 5 0 1 0.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.40 1.15

Season Leaderboard:

Rank Last Week Name Wk 01 Wk 02 Wk 03 Wk 04 Wk 05 Wk 06 Total Average
1 1 rlott#42 4.57 5.21 3.13 3.95 3.48 4.27 24.61 4.10
2 3 Desert Dog Runner 3.99 5.41 4.55 2.29 3.54 4.06 23.84 3.97
3 2 Katydid 4.07 5.32 3.85 3.47 3.38 2.96 23.05 3.84
4 4 Average 4.16 5.22 3.46 2.58 4.04 2.84 22.30 3.72
5 10 Drew Kerr 2.81 4.79 3.41 3.06 3.01 4.20 21.28 3.55
6 6 Aaron Emerson 4.26 4.95 3.36 2.55 3.39 2.65 21.16 3.53
7 9 49erLou 3.65 4.60 3.50 2.75 4.25 1.83 20.58 3.43
8 15 Delmuir - 4.61 4.14 4.05 3.66 3.71 20.17 4.03
9 8 sik49er 4.45 4.28 3.18 2.73 3.06 2.35 20.05 3.34
10 18 bradyk2 3.47 4.43 2.70 1.80 4.72 2.52 19.64 3.27
11 12 Ni9er 3.44 3.82 3.73 2.65 3.42 1.96 19.02 3.17
12 17 liberty_JAC 3.46 3.26 3.35 2.44 4.05 2.09 18.65 3.11
13 19 16to80fan 4.86 - 4.18 2.87 3.82 2.84 18.57 3.71
14 7 whistlingmountain 3.24 4.59 4.13 2.74 2.91 - 17.61 3.52
15 14 Fred.P.Soft 3.84 4.30 2.53 2.70 3.79 - 17.16 3.43
16 13 SH0ck-D 3.50 3.83 3.67 2.43 2.85 - 16.28 3.26
17 4 MRandolph 4.42 4.30 3.18 4.03 - - 15.93 3.98
18 24 reedkrase - 5.06 - 3.54 4.34 2.84 15.78 3.95
19 23 Edggy - 4.22 2.80 2.13 4.64 1.92 15.71 3.14
20 25 ak4niner 3.97 - 1.97 2.50 4.71 2.29 15.44 3.09
21 20 AzNiner 4.48 4.32 - 2.25 3.70 - 14.75 3.69
22 11 YellowMelonCust 4.77 5.01 4.08 - - - 13.86 4.62
23 21 Bravedown50 4.84 - 3.20 2.70 - 2.96 13.70 3.43
24 16 The RealFakename 4.28 4.94 3.56 - - - 12.78 4.26
25 22 Stupifyed 2.37 5.03 - 1.88 3.05 - 12.33 3.08
26 32 See Jay - - - 3.75 2.30 4.13 10.18 3.39
27 37 PNK - - - 2.52 3.13 3.22 8.87 2.96
28 27 sanluisobispo49ers - 3.08 2.92 - - 1.35 7.35 2.45
29 NR ILNinerNut - - - - 4.65 2.44 7.09 3.55
30 NR DeafWriterJC - - - - - 3.09 3.09 3.09
31 NR djww - - - - - 2.37 2.37 2.37
32 38 Linus Jorgensen - - - 2.26 - - 2.26 2.26
33 NR 4ty9er - - - - - 2.16 2.16 2.16
34 NR grabtree15 - - - - - 1.43 1.43 1.43
35 NR papa.gomes - - - - - 1.15 1.15 1.15

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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