Things I learned while watching the 49ers get demolished live at Candlestick, in handy list format:
- My Justin Smith jersey and the actual Justin Smith can never be within 200 yards of each other. When this occurs, the sheer weight of awesome is enough to create a black hole of suck that swallows the team we love. I will stick to wielding my Smith jersey in the safety of my own home.
- Kaep needs to work on his receiving chemistry with Alex. At one point after things had begun to fall apart, Alex and Kaep were keeping loose on the sideline by tossing the football back and forth. I watched a hilarious sequence of Kaep bobbling and dropping three easy Smith lobs in a row and growing increasingly embarrassed, bless.
- I need to refrain from wearing a hair elastic around my wrist unless I want a bizarre little tan ring on my wrist the next day.
- Though I believe him when he says it wasn't a factor in the INTs, I do think Alex's finger was bothering him a bit. While keeping warm on the sideline, I saw him flex his throwing hand gingerly a few times.
- I picked the wrong week to watch the correct end of a Candlestick blowout. I knew I should've gone to the Bills game instead....
And now back to the topic at hand: Alex Smith. Ultimate troll, or ultimate troll? Just when he's got us right where he wants us, in optimistic cloud nine, he sends us all crashing back to earth. Someone needs to pull him aside and explain to him that the proper execution of "pulling a Manning" goes thusly: throw three picks early in the game (this is crucial) and heroically battle your way back with an equal or greater number of TDs in the second half (this is also crucial). And your name has to be Manning, or your success rate goes down dramatically. That, or he was trying to be more like QB role models such as Cutler, Rivers, and Romo.
And so the question this week remains the same: how well do you really know Alex Smith? Is he the near-perfect QB of two games ago? Or the QB who got into the Halloween spirit and handed out INTs like candy last game? Or old, steady, reliable Alex of the first four weeks? All of the above? Which one will we see this week? That's where you all come in.
Still, all was not doom and gloom in the scoring world, although we only had four people break the 4.0 point barrier last week. The top five last week includes five veterans and some names familiar from prior weeks' top five lists: rlott#42, Drew Kerr, See Jay, Desert Dog Runner, and Delmuir.
There's also been some shakeups in the leaderboard. Shakeups you may or may not see, depending on how late it gets as I write this post. But enough of the past, let's review the rules of the present.
Unlike the subject of this game, the rules are simple. Guess Alex Smith's passing stat line for the upcoming game (Seattle Seahawks at 49ers) using the following format in the comments below.
Rushing Yards (Optional):
Rushing TDs (Optional):
Feel free to revise your numbers all the way up to game time. I'll use only the most recent guess. If you want to update your numbers, please reply to your original comment with the revised guess.
NOTE: Although I'm not currently scoring rushing stats (yards and TDs), I'm considering doing something with them at some point. For now, if you'd like to add rushing stats to your guess, please do. I'll highlight the person with the closest rushing predictions in the results column.
The scoring is based on a 6-point system, with each of the following metrics accounting for a point: Attempts, Completion % (calculated from Cmp/Att numbers), Yards, TDs, INTs, and Sacks. It's a bit dry, but for the curious, here is how each of the metrics are scored:
Attempts: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualAtt - AttGuessed) / 12)
Completion %: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualComp% - (CompGuessed/AttGuessed * 100)) / 15)
Yards: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualYards - YardsGuessed) / 100)
TDs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualTDs - TDsGuessed) / 3)
INTs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualINTs - INTsGuessed) / 3)
Sacks: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualSacks - SacksGuessed) / 5)
The six scoring categories are added up to produce a composite score. The maximum that can be scored is 6 points; the minimum is 0. I'll keep a running leaderboard throughout the season, along with posting the weekly results.
WEEK SIX RESULTSWelcome to another edition of the extremely abridged results section, where I'm just going to highlight a handful of interesting tidbits. Drew Kerr, impressively, was the only person to predict more than 1 INT (2). Meanwhile, my erstwhile leaderboard nemesis, rlott#42, had an eerily accurate stat line aside from the TDs and INTs--increasing his separation at the top of the leaderboard. Wisely, no one predicted 0 sacks. Unluckily, no one predicted 0 TDs. Newbie papa.gomes set a season record for lowest score recorded: 1.15 points.
Also, I am taking this opportunity to revoke liberty_JAC's internet cookies, for jinxing Alex Smith with an otherwise excellent post on his historically low interception rank.
Here is what Alex Smith's week against the relentless NY Giants looked like:
|Att||Comp||Comp %||Yds||TDs||INTs||Sacks||Rush Yds||Rush TDs|
And here are the Week Six rankings:
|4||Desert Dog Runner||29||19||65.5%||237||2||1||4||0.92||0.85||0.63||0.33||0.33||1.00||4.06|
|Rank||Last Week||Name||Wk 01||Wk 02||Wk 03||Wk 04||Wk 05||Wk 06||Total||Average|
|2||3||Desert Dog Runner||3.99||5.41||4.55||2.29||3.54||4.06||23.84||3.97|