FanPost

Alex Smith Stat Prediction Game: Week Eight (Updated)

11/09/12: Updated with Week Seven rankings and season-to-date leaderboard.

Okay, it's like this: I cheated. I cheated on football with baseball last week into this weekend, so this is a bare-bones post with no results until I can use to bye to catch up on everything. For the record, I regret nothing. There's no fun like second-hand excitement watching another SF team bulldoze its way to ultimate glory. Plus, I learned that baseball isn't as boring as I once foolishly assumed. Congrats to all the Giants fans on NN!

I plan on using the upcoming bye week to throw together a bigger results post with some mid-season stats and thoughts, but the juicy number crunching will have to wait until then.

To those who could (or couldn't) care less about baseball, I'll get right to it: the rules are simple. Guess Alex Smith's passing stat line for the upcoming game (49ers at Cardinals) using the following format in the comments below.

Attempts:
Completions:
Yards:
TDs:
INTs:
Sacks:
Rushing Yards (Optional):
Rushing TDs (Optional):


Feel free to revise your numbers all the way up to game time. I'll use only the most recent guess. If you want to update your numbers, please reply to your original comment with the revised guess.

NOTE: Although I'm not currently scoring rushing stats (yards and TDs), I'm considering doing something with them at some point. For now, if you'd like to add rushing stats to your guess, please do. I'll highlight the person with the closest rushing predictions in the results column.

Scoring:

The scoring is based on a 6-point system, with each of the following metrics accounting for a point: Attempts, Completion % (calculated from Cmp/Att numbers), Yards, TDs, INTs, and Sacks. It's a bit dry, but for the curious, here is how each of the metrics are scored:

Attempts: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualAtt - AttGuessed) / 12)

Completion %: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualComp% - (CompGuessed/AttGuessed * 100)) / 15)

Yards: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualYards - YardsGuessed) / 100)

TDs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualTDs - TDsGuessed) / 3)

INTs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualINTs - INTsGuessed) / 3)

Sacks: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualSacks - SacksGuessed) / 5)

The six scoring categories are added up to produce a composite score. The maximum that can be scored is 6 points; the minimum is 0. I'll keep a running leaderboard throughout the season, along with posting the weekly results.

WEEK SEVEN RESULTS


Here is what Alex Smith's week against the Seahawks defense looked like:

Att Comp Comp % Yds TDs INTs Sacks Rush Yds Rush TDs
23 14 60.9% 130 1 1 2 11 0

And here are the Week Seven rankings:

Rank User Att Comp Comp % Yds TDs INTs Sacks A B C D E F Score
1 rlott#42 26 15 57.7% 180 1 1 3 0.75 0.79 0.60 1.00 1.00 0.80 4.94
2 katydid 26 17 65.4% 180 1 1 3 0.75 0.70 0.60 1.00 1.00 0.80 4.85
3 PNK 24 16 66.7% 165 0 1 5 0.92 0.61 0.75 0.67 1.00 0.40 4.35
4 reedkrase 24 16 66.7% 193 1 0 4 0.92 0.61 0.47 1.00 0.67 0.60 4.27
5 leaping_larry 30 18 60.0% 199 2 1 3 0.42 0.94 0.41 0.67 1.00 0.80 4.24
6 Bravedown50 28 17 60.7% 235 2 1 3 0.58 0.99 0.05 0.67 1.00 0.80 4.09
7 sanluisobispo49ers 26 18 69.2% 202 2 1 3 0.75 0.45 0.38 0.67 1.00 0.80 4.05
8 sik49er 29 18 62.1% 205 2 0 4 0.50 0.92 0.35 0.67 0.67 0.60 3.71
9 liberty_JAC 31 20 64.5% 201 2 0 3 0.33 0.76 0.39 0.67 0.67 0.80 3.62
10 NinerFanTucson 30 19 63.3% 232 2 0 3 0.42 0.84 0.08 0.67 0.67 0.80 3.48
11 Average 28 19 67.9% 221 2 0 3 0.58 0.53 0.19 0.67 0.67 0.80 3.44
12 Stupifyed 24 17 70.8% 267 2 0 3 0.92 0.34 0.00 0.67 0.67 0.80 3.40
13 Desert Dog Runner 31 20 64.5% 229 2 0 3 0.33 0.76 0.11 0.67 0.67 0.80 3.34
14 ILNinerNut 26 19 73.1% 234 2 0 2 0.75 0.19 0.06 0.67 0.67 1.00 3.34
15 Grabtree15 18 13 72.2% 222 2 0 3 0.58 0.25 0.18 0.67 0.67 0.80 3.15
16 4ty9er 29 20 69.0% 226 2 0 4 0.50 0.46 0.14 0.67 0.67 0.60 3.04
17 bradyk2 28 20 71.4% 244 2 0 3 0.58 0.30 0.00 0.67 0.67 0.80 3.02
18 49erLou 29 21 72.4% 267 2 0 3 0.50 0.23 0.00 0.67 0.67 0.80 2.87
19 Burnin Davis 33 24 72.7% 270 3 0 2 0.17 0.21 0.00 0.33 0.67 1.00 2.38
20 Drew Kerr 35 26 74.3% 248 2 1 4 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.67 1.00 0.60 2.38

Season Leaderboard:

Rank Last Wk Name Wk 01 Wk 02 Wk 03 Wk 04 Wk 05 Wk 06 Wk 07 Total Average
1 1 rlott#42 4.57 5.21 3.13 3.95 3.48 4.27 4.94 29.55 4.22
2 3 Katydid 4.07 5.32 3.85 3.47 3.38 2.96 4.85 27.9 3.99
3 2 Desert Dog Runner 3.99 5.41 4.55 2.29 3.54 4.06 3.34 27.18 3.88
4 4 Average 4.16 5.22 3.46 2.58 4.04 2.84 3.44 25.74 3.68
5 9 sik49er 4.45 4.28 3.18 2.73 3.06 2.35 3.71 23.76 3.39
6 5 Drew Kerr 2.81 4.79 3.41 3.06 3.01 4.2 2.38 23.66 3.38
7 7 49erLou 3.65 4.6 3.5 2.75 4.25 1.83 2.87 23.45 3.35
8 10 bradyk2 3.47 4.43 2.7 1.8 4.72 2.52 3.02 22.66 3.24
9 12 liberty_JAC 3.46 3.26 3.35 2.44 4.05 2.09 3.62 22.27 3.18
10 6 Aaron Emerson 4.26 4.95 3.36 2.55 3.39 2.65 - 21.16 3.53
11 8 Delmuir - 4.61 4.14 4.05 3.66 3.71 - 20.17 4.03
12 18 reedkrase - 5.06 - 3.54 4.34 2.84 4.27 20.05 4.01
13 11 Ni9er 3.44 3.82 3.73 2.65 3.42 1.96 - 19.02 3.17
14 13 16to80fan 4.86 - 4.18 2.87 3.82 2.84 - 18.57 3.71
15 23 Bravedown50 4.84 - 3.2 2.7 - 2.96 4.09 17.79 3.56
16 14 whistlingmountain 3.24 4.59 4.13 2.74 2.91 - - 17.61 3.52
17 15 Fred.P.Soft 3.84 4.3 2.53 2.7 3.79 - - 17.16 3.43
18 16 SH0ck-D 3.5 3.83 3.67 2.43 2.85 - - 16.28 3.26
19 25 Stupifyed 2.37 5.03 - 1.88 3.05 - 3.4 15.73 3.15
20 19 Edggy - 4.22 2.8 2.13 4.64 1.92 - 15.71 3.14
21 20 ak4niner 3.97 - 1.97 2.5 4.71 2.29 - 15.44 3.09
22 21 AzNiner 4.48 4.32 - 2.25 3.7 - - 14.75 3.69
23 27 PNK - - - 2.52 3.13 3.22 4.35 13.22 3.31
24 28 sanluisobispo49ers - 3.08 2.92 - - 1.35 4.05 11.4 2.85
25 29 ILNinerNut - - - - 4.65 2.44 3.34 10.43 3.48
26 26 See Jay - - - 3.75 2.3 4.13 - 10.18 3.39
27 NR leaping_larry 3.95 - - - - - 4.24 8.19 4.1
28 33 4ty9er - - - - - 2.16 3.04 5.2 2.6
29 34 grabtree15 - - - - - 1.43 3.15 4.58 2.29
30 NR NinerFanTucson - - - - - - 3.48 3.48 3.48
31 30 DeafWriterJC - - - - - 3.09 - 3.09 3.09
32 NR Burnin Davis - - - - - - 2.38 2.38 2.38
33 31 djww - - - - - 2.37 - 2.37 2.37
34 35 papa.gomes - - - - - 1.15 - 1.15 1.15

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Niners Nation

You must be a member of Niners Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Niners Nation. You should read them.

Join Niners Nation

You must be a member of Niners Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Niners Nation. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker