I'd like to post Alex Smith's performance against defenses vs. what those defense allowed against all the other teams they played. Data displayed as % above what defense allowed vs. everyone else:
@ GB: +72%
Also notice that Smith does not decline vs. better defenses and improve vs. poor defenses, as people would assume based on the Buffalo game:
If you exclude the Detroit, Min, and Buffalo games, Smith CLEARLY gets better as opposing defenses get better...which is amazing. Its a steep, tight, negative correlation between Smith's QB rating and the opponents QB rating allowed: the lower the defense's QB rating, the better he does!
***math nerds only: If you throw out those three games, here's what the regression looks like y = -6.5358x + 584.62; R² = 0.7721
with all games: y = -1.529x + 222.88; R² = 0.0842
(still technically significant with all games, but not necessarily meaningful)