FanPost

Alex Smith does *better* against better defenses.

I'd like to post Alex Smith's performance against defenses vs. what those defense allowed against all the other teams they played. Data displayed as % above what defense allowed vs. everyone else:

@ GB: +72%

DET: +22.3%

@MIN: -6.6%

@NYJ: +3.7%

BUF: +85.7%

NYG: -48.7%

SEA: -3.3%

@ARI: +143.6%

Season: +30.5%

Also notice that Smith does not decline vs. better defenses and improve vs. poor defenses, as people would assume based on the Buffalo game:

Smith/Opp

GB 125.6/73.1

DET 107.7/88.1

MIN 81.1/86.8

NYJ 78.1/75.3

BUF 156.8/84.4

NYG 41.0/79.9

SEA 74.5/77.1

ARI 157.1/64.5

All 102.1/78.3

If you exclude the Detroit, Min, and Buffalo games, Smith CLEARLY gets better as opposing defenses get better...which is amazing. Its a steep, tight, negative correlation between Smith's QB rating and the opponents QB rating allowed: the lower the defense's QB rating, the better he does!


***math nerds only: If you throw out those three games, here's what the regression looks like y = -6.5358x + 584.62; R² = 0.7721
with all games: y = -1.529x + 222.88; R² = 0.0842
(still technically significant with all games, but not necessarily meaningful)

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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