FanPost

Alex Smith Stat Prediction Game: Week Five

By popular request (aka reedkrase), the prediction game will now go up on Friday to give people a chance to get their predictions in before the weekend, if they have plans. If enough people would prefer Thursday, I can push it back to Thursday instead--we'll just need to ensure the game has enough recs to stay at the top of the fanposts. And in the future, if the game post isn't up in time, please feel free to leave a prediction in the previous week's thread. Just let me know later, and I'll include your prediction.

I was only able to "watch" last week's game via game cast on my mobile while bouncing between patches of tortuously poor connectivity, but I did don 49ers colors once more. With last week's win, the 49ers improved to 3-0 when I wear 49ers apparel. My Justin Smith jersey arrived last week, and it's almost as awesome as Justin himself. Fear not. The Bills don't stand a chance with me wearing that, guys.

But enough about me. You're here for the prediction game and the opportunity to see how Alex Smith can throw us a curve ball this week.

How well do you know Alex Smith? Hopefully much better than we thought we did last week. Just when I thought we'd bottomed out during Week 3, Week 4 came around and gave us a firm kick in the collective rear...much like the 49ers did the Jets.

We only had three people sniff the 4.0 point barrier last week: Delmuir, MRandolph, and rlott#42, rise and accept your plaudits. Rounding out the top five performances from last week are reedkrase and prediction games newbie See Jay. The rest of us will lick our wounds and regroup this week.

Another week--and an MIA YellowMelonCust--brings new turnover to the season leaderboard. Making the jump from 4th place right to the top is rlott#42, narrowly edging me (curses!) as I claw my way to 2nd place from 3rd. This week, rlott#42, I'm coming for you. Desert Dog Runner, reeling from last week's prediction, falls from 1st to 4th. MRandolph makes a meteoric rise on a strong Week 4 performance from 10th place to round out the top 5 at 5th place. Last week's results and the full season-to-date leaderboard can be found at the bottom of the post.

For everyone else, this week is another opportunity to venture a prediction and potentially claim the lead.

The rules are simple. Guess Alex Smith's passing stat line for the upcoming game (Buffalo Bills at 49ers) using the following format in the comments below.

Attempts:
Completions:
Yards:
TDs:
INTs:
Sacks:
Rushing Yards (Optional):
Rushing TDs (Optional):


Feel free to revise your numbers all the way up to game time. I'll use only the most recent guess. If you want to update your numbers, please reply to your original comment with the revised guess.

NOTE: Although I'm not currently scoring rushing stats (yards and TDs), I'm considering doing something with them at some point. For now, if you'd like to add rushing stats to your guess, please do. I'll highlight the person with the closest rushing predictions in the results column.

Scoring:

The scoring is based on a 6-point system, with each of the following metrics accounting for a point: Attempts, Completion % (calculated from Cmp/Att numbers), Yards, TDs, INTs, and Sacks. It's a bit dry, but for the curious, here is how each of the metrics are scored:

Attempts: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualAtt - AttGuessed) / 12)

Completion %: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualComp% - (CompGuessed/AttGuessed * 100)) / 15)

Yards: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualYards - YardsGuessed) / 100)

TDs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualTDs - TDsGuessed) / 3)

INTs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualINTs - INTsGuessed) / 3)

Sacks: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualSacks - SacksGuessed) / 5)

The six scoring categories are added up to produce a composite score. The maximum that can be scored is 6 points; the minimum is 0. I'll keep a running leaderboard throughout the season, along with posting the weekly results.

WEEK FOUR RESULTS

For the second week in a row, the group erred on the side of optimism, and the collective scores suffered accordingly. In retrospect, facing a decent pass defense on the road is not typically a recipe for pinball numbers. It also doesn't help when the opposing defense's line is folding like a wet paper bag against the run. 26 voices cried out in outrage when Tukuafu was held in the end zone, denying a passing TD that would have raised every single person's (except rlott#42's) score by 0.33. Still, there were a select few who came somewhat close this week.

As alluded to above, top honors this week belong to Delmuir, who was close enough in enough categories (and dead on with the INTs and sacks) to claim the top spot. Closely following him were MRandolph and rlott#42, who remarkably guessed Alex Smith's TDs (0) and completion percentage exactly: 57.1%. He was the only person to predict a completion percentage below 60% and 0 TDs. Rounding out the top five are newcomer See Jay and reedkrase, who narrowly pulled ahead of me for 5th place on the strength of a closer completion percentage.

Here is what Alex Smith's week against the Jets looked like:

AttCompComp %YdsTDsINTsSacksRush YdsRush TDs
211257.10%143002120

And here are the Week Four rankings:

RankUserAttCompComp %YdsTDsINTsSacksABCDEFScore
1Delmuir241770.8%1891020.750.090.540.671.001.004.05
2MRandolph261765.4%1701040.580.450.730.671.000.604.03
3rlott#42281657.1%1970150.421.000.461.000.670.403.95
4See Jay221672.7%1871040.920.000.560.671.000.603.75
5reedkrase261765.4%2252020.580.450.180.331.001.003.54
6Katydid282071.4%2101020.420.050.330.671.001.003.47
7Drew Kerr292172.4%1832030.330.000.600.331.000.803.06
816to80fan282071.4%2162030.420.050.270.331.000.802.87
949erLou282278.6%2772020.420.000.000.331.001.002.75
10whistlingmountain292172.4%2152030.330.000.280.331.000.802.74
11sik49er312167.7%2292010.170.290.140.331.000.802.73
12Bravedown50261869.2%2432040.580.190.000.331.000.602.70
13Fred.P.Soft302273.3%2251040.250.000.180.671.000.602.70
14Ni9er302170.0%2302030.250.140.130.331.000.802.65
15Average292172.4%2312030.330.000.120.331.000.802.58
16Aaron Emerson282175.0%2452030.420.000.000.331.000.802.55
17PNK342470.6%2342020.000.100.090.331.001.002.52
18ak4niner272385.2%2473020.500.000.000.001.001.002.50
19liberty_JAC292275.9%2323020.330.000.110.001.001.002.44
20SH0ck-D232087.0%2452140.830.000.000.330.670.602.43
21Desert Dog Runner342264.7%2432110.000.490.000.330.670.802.29
22Linus Jorgensen292379.3%2472000.330.000.000.331.000.602.26
23AzNiner372670.3%2682030.000.120.000.331.000.802.25
24Edggy332575.8%2562010.000.000.000.331.000.802.13
25Stupifyed322475.0%2633030.080.000.000.001.000.801.88
26bradyk2332472.7%2893010.000.000.000.001.000.801.80

Season-to-Date Leaderboard

RankLast WkNameWk 01Wk 02Wk 03Wk 04TotalAverage
14rlott#424.575.213.133.9516.864.22
23Katydid4.075.323.853.4716.714.18
31Desert Dog Runner3.995.414.552.2916.244.06
410MRandolph 4.424.33.184.0315.933.98
55Average4.165.223.462.5815.423.86
67Aaron Emerson4.264.953.362.5515.123.78
78whistlingmountain3.244.594.132.7414.73.68
89sik49er4.454.283.182.7314.643.66
91149erLou3.654.63.52.7514.53.63
1012Drew Kerr2.814.793.413.0614.073.52
112YellowMelonCust4.775.014.08-13.864.62
1214Ni9er3.443.823.732.6513.643.41
1313SH0ck-D3.53.833.672.4313.433.36
1415Fred.P.Soft3.844.32.532.713.373.34
1520Delmuir-4.614.144.0512.84.27
166The RealFakename4.284.943.56-12.784.26
1717liberty_JAC3.463.263.352.4412.513.13
1816bradyk23.474.432.71.812.43.1
191816to80fan4.86-4.182.8711.913.97
2019AzNiner4.484.32-2.2511.053.68
2121Bravedown504.84-3.22.710.743.58
2222Stupifyed2.375.03-1.889.283.09
2323Edggy-4.222.82.139.153.05
2429reedkrase-5.06-3.548.64.3
2526ak4niner3.97-1.972.58.442.81
2624San Fran Niners-4.232.74-6.973.49
2725sanluisobispo49ers-3.082.92-63
2828driddo5k-5.14--5.145.14
2930oldfoggy-4.71--4.714.71
3032Rhardin-4.49--4.494.49
3133JDilla415-3.97--3.973.97
32NRSee Jay---3.753.753.75
3338blue42red30--3.57-3.573.57
3440mountaindew77--3.25-3.253.25
3541Little Bobby Tables--2.92-2.922.92
3642Ador08--2.87-2.872.87
37NRPNK---2.522.522.52
38NRLinus Jorgensen---2.262.262.26

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Niners Nation

You must be a member of Niners Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Niners Nation. You should read them.

Join Niners Nation

You must be a member of Niners Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Niners Nation. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker