FanPost

Alex Smith Stat Prediction Game: Week Five

By popular request (aka reedkrase), the prediction game will now go up on Friday to give people a chance to get their predictions in before the weekend, if they have plans. If enough people would prefer Thursday, I can push it back to Thursday instead--we'll just need to ensure the game has enough recs to stay at the top of the fanposts. And in the future, if the game post isn't up in time, please feel free to leave a prediction in the previous week's thread. Just let me know later, and I'll include your prediction.

I was only able to "watch" last week's game via game cast on my mobile while bouncing between patches of tortuously poor connectivity, but I did don 49ers colors once more. With last week's win, the 49ers improved to 3-0 when I wear 49ers apparel. My Justin Smith jersey arrived last week, and it's almost as awesome as Justin himself. Fear not. The Bills don't stand a chance with me wearing that, guys.

But enough about me. You're here for the prediction game and the opportunity to see how Alex Smith can throw us a curve ball this week.

How well do you know Alex Smith? Hopefully much better than we thought we did last week. Just when I thought we'd bottomed out during Week 3, Week 4 came around and gave us a firm kick in the collective rear...much like the 49ers did the Jets.

We only had three people sniff the 4.0 point barrier last week: Delmuir, MRandolph, and rlott#42, rise and accept your plaudits. Rounding out the top five performances from last week are reedkrase and prediction games newbie See Jay. The rest of us will lick our wounds and regroup this week.

Another week--and an MIA YellowMelonCust--brings new turnover to the season leaderboard. Making the jump from 4th place right to the top is rlott#42, narrowly edging me (curses!) as I claw my way to 2nd place from 3rd. This week, rlott#42, I'm coming for you. Desert Dog Runner, reeling from last week's prediction, falls from 1st to 4th. MRandolph makes a meteoric rise on a strong Week 4 performance from 10th place to round out the top 5 at 5th place. Last week's results and the full season-to-date leaderboard can be found at the bottom of the post.

For everyone else, this week is another opportunity to venture a prediction and potentially claim the lead.

The rules are simple. Guess Alex Smith's passing stat line for the upcoming game (Buffalo Bills at 49ers) using the following format in the comments below.

Attempts:
Completions:
Yards:
TDs:
INTs:
Sacks:
Rushing Yards (Optional):
Rushing TDs (Optional):


Feel free to revise your numbers all the way up to game time. I'll use only the most recent guess. If you want to update your numbers, please reply to your original comment with the revised guess.

NOTE: Although I'm not currently scoring rushing stats (yards and TDs), I'm considering doing something with them at some point. For now, if you'd like to add rushing stats to your guess, please do. I'll highlight the person with the closest rushing predictions in the results column.

Scoring:

The scoring is based on a 6-point system, with each of the following metrics accounting for a point: Attempts, Completion % (calculated from Cmp/Att numbers), Yards, TDs, INTs, and Sacks. It's a bit dry, but for the curious, here is how each of the metrics are scored:

Attempts: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualAtt - AttGuessed) / 12)

Completion %: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualComp% - (CompGuessed/AttGuessed * 100)) / 15)

Yards: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualYards - YardsGuessed) / 100)

TDs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualTDs - TDsGuessed) / 3)

INTs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualINTs - INTsGuessed) / 3)

Sacks: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualSacks - SacksGuessed) / 5)

The six scoring categories are added up to produce a composite score. The maximum that can be scored is 6 points; the minimum is 0. I'll keep a running leaderboard throughout the season, along with posting the weekly results.

WEEK FOUR RESULTS

For the second week in a row, the group erred on the side of optimism, and the collective scores suffered accordingly. In retrospect, facing a decent pass defense on the road is not typically a recipe for pinball numbers. It also doesn't help when the opposing defense's line is folding like a wet paper bag against the run. 26 voices cried out in outrage when Tukuafu was held in the end zone, denying a passing TD that would have raised every single person's (except rlott#42's) score by 0.33. Still, there were a select few who came somewhat close this week.

As alluded to above, top honors this week belong to Delmuir, who was close enough in enough categories (and dead on with the INTs and sacks) to claim the top spot. Closely following him were MRandolph and rlott#42, who remarkably guessed Alex Smith's TDs (0) and completion percentage exactly: 57.1%. He was the only person to predict a completion percentage below 60% and 0 TDs. Rounding out the top five are newcomer See Jay and reedkrase, who narrowly pulled ahead of me for 5th place on the strength of a closer completion percentage.

Here is what Alex Smith's week against the Jets looked like:

Att Comp Comp % Yds TDs INTs Sacks Rush Yds Rush TDs
21 12 57.10% 143 0 0 2 12 0

And here are the Week Four rankings:

Rank User Att Comp Comp % Yds TDs INTs Sacks A B C D E F Score
1 Delmuir 24 17 70.8% 189 1 0 2 0.75 0.09 0.54 0.67 1.00 1.00 4.05
2 MRandolph 26 17 65.4% 170 1 0 4 0.58 0.45 0.73 0.67 1.00 0.60 4.03
3 rlott#42 28 16 57.1% 197 0 1 5 0.42 1.00 0.46 1.00 0.67 0.40 3.95
4 See Jay 22 16 72.7% 187 1 0 4 0.92 0.00 0.56 0.67 1.00 0.60 3.75
5 reedkrase 26 17 65.4% 225 2 0 2 0.58 0.45 0.18 0.33 1.00 1.00 3.54
6 Katydid 28 20 71.4% 210 1 0 2 0.42 0.05 0.33 0.67 1.00 1.00 3.47
7 Drew Kerr 29 21 72.4% 183 2 0 3 0.33 0.00 0.60 0.33 1.00 0.80 3.06
8 16to80fan 28 20 71.4% 216 2 0 3 0.42 0.05 0.27 0.33 1.00 0.80 2.87
9 49erLou 28 22 78.6% 277 2 0 2 0.42 0.00 0.00 0.33 1.00 1.00 2.75
10 whistlingmountain 29 21 72.4% 215 2 0 3 0.33 0.00 0.28 0.33 1.00 0.80 2.74
11 sik49er 31 21 67.7% 229 2 0 1 0.17 0.29 0.14 0.33 1.00 0.80 2.73
12 Bravedown50 26 18 69.2% 243 2 0 4 0.58 0.19 0.00 0.33 1.00 0.60 2.70
13 Fred.P.Soft 30 22 73.3% 225 1 0 4 0.25 0.00 0.18 0.67 1.00 0.60 2.70
14 Ni9er 30 21 70.0% 230 2 0 3 0.25 0.14 0.13 0.33 1.00 0.80 2.65
15 Average 29 21 72.4% 231 2 0 3 0.33 0.00 0.12 0.33 1.00 0.80 2.58
16 Aaron Emerson 28 21 75.0% 245 2 0 3 0.42 0.00 0.00 0.33 1.00 0.80 2.55
17 PNK 34 24 70.6% 234 2 0 2 0.00 0.10 0.09 0.33 1.00 1.00 2.52
18 ak4niner 27 23 85.2% 247 3 0 2 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 2.50
19 liberty_JAC 29 22 75.9% 232 3 0 2 0.33 0.00 0.11 0.00 1.00 1.00 2.44
20 SH0ck-D 23 20 87.0% 245 2 1 4 0.83 0.00 0.00 0.33 0.67 0.60 2.43
21 Desert Dog Runner 34 22 64.7% 243 2 1 1 0.00 0.49 0.00 0.33 0.67 0.80 2.29
22 Linus Jorgensen 29 23 79.3% 247 2 0 0 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.33 1.00 0.60 2.26
23 AzNiner 37 26 70.3% 268 2 0 3 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.33 1.00 0.80 2.25
24 Edggy 33 25 75.8% 256 2 0 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.33 1.00 0.80 2.13
25 Stupifyed 32 24 75.0% 263 3 0 3 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.80 1.88
26 bradyk2 33 24 72.7% 289 3 0 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.80 1.80

Season-to-Date Leaderboard

Rank Last Wk Name Wk 01 Wk 02 Wk 03 Wk 04 Total Average
1 4 rlott#42 4.57 5.21 3.13 3.95 16.86 4.22
2 3 Katydid 4.07 5.32 3.85 3.47 16.71 4.18
3 1 Desert Dog Runner 3.99 5.41 4.55 2.29 16.24 4.06
4 10 MRandolph 4.42 4.3 3.18 4.03 15.93 3.98
5 5 Average 4.16 5.22 3.46 2.58 15.42 3.86
6 7 Aaron Emerson 4.26 4.95 3.36 2.55 15.12 3.78
7 8 whistlingmountain 3.24 4.59 4.13 2.74 14.7 3.68
8 9 sik49er 4.45 4.28 3.18 2.73 14.64 3.66
9 11 49erLou 3.65 4.6 3.5 2.75 14.5 3.63
10 12 Drew Kerr 2.81 4.79 3.41 3.06 14.07 3.52
11 2 YellowMelonCust 4.77 5.01 4.08 - 13.86 4.62
12 14 Ni9er 3.44 3.82 3.73 2.65 13.64 3.41
13 13 SH0ck-D 3.5 3.83 3.67 2.43 13.43 3.36
14 15 Fred.P.Soft 3.84 4.3 2.53 2.7 13.37 3.34
15 20 Delmuir - 4.61 4.14 4.05 12.8 4.27
16 6 The RealFakename 4.28 4.94 3.56 - 12.78 4.26
17 17 liberty_JAC 3.46 3.26 3.35 2.44 12.51 3.13
18 16 bradyk2 3.47 4.43 2.7 1.8 12.4 3.1
19 18 16to80fan 4.86 - 4.18 2.87 11.91 3.97
20 19 AzNiner 4.48 4.32 - 2.25 11.05 3.68
21 21 Bravedown50 4.84 - 3.2 2.7 10.74 3.58
22 22 Stupifyed 2.37 5.03 - 1.88 9.28 3.09
23 23 Edggy - 4.22 2.8 2.13 9.15 3.05
24 29 reedkrase - 5.06 - 3.54 8.6 4.3
25 26 ak4niner 3.97 - 1.97 2.5 8.44 2.81
26 24 San Fran Niners - 4.23 2.74 - 6.97 3.49
27 25 sanluisobispo49ers - 3.08 2.92 - 6 3
28 28 driddo5k - 5.14 - - 5.14 5.14
29 30 oldfoggy - 4.71 - - 4.71 4.71
30 32 Rhardin - 4.49 - - 4.49 4.49
31 33 JDilla415 - 3.97 - - 3.97 3.97
32 NR See Jay - - - 3.75 3.75 3.75
33 38 blue42red30 - - 3.57 - 3.57 3.57
34 40 mountaindew77 - - 3.25 - 3.25 3.25
35 41 Little Bobby Tables - - 2.92 - 2.92 2.92
36 42 Ador08 - - 2.87 - 2.87 2.87
37 NR PNK - - - 2.52 2.52 2.52
38 NR Linus Jorgensen - - - 2.26 2.26 2.26

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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