Here are the rules for the Alex Smith Stat Prediction Game, Kaepernick Edition: guess Kaepernick's passing stat line for the upcoming game (Bears at 49ers) using the following format in the comments below.
Rushing Yards (Optional):
Rushing TDs (Optional):
Feel free to revise your numbers all the way up to game time. I'll use only the most recent guess. If you want to update your numbers, please reply to your original comment with the revised guess.
NOTE: Although I'm not currently scoring rushing stats (yards and TDs), I'm considering doing something with them at some point. For now, if you'd like to add rushing stats to your guess, please do. I'll highlight the person with the closest rushing predictions in the results column.
The scoring is based on a 6-point system, with each of the following metrics accounting for a point: Attempts, Completion % (calculated from Cmp/Att numbers), Yards, TDs, INTs, and Sacks. It's a bit dry, but for the curious, here is how each of the metrics are scored:
Attempts: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualAtt - AttGuessed) / 12)
Completion %: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualComp% - (CompGuessed/AttGuessed * 100)) / 15)
Yards: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualYards - YardsGuessed) / 100)
TDs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualTDs - TDsGuessed) / 3)
INTs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualINTs - INTsGuessed) / 3)
Sacks: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualSacks - SacksGuessed) / 5)
The six scoring categories are added up to produce a composite score. The maximum that can be scored is 6 points; the minimum is 0. I'll keep a running leaderboard throughout the season, along with posting the weekly results.
WEEK TEN RESULTSStill figuring out what I want to do with these. I'm planning to project Alex Smith's stats over a full game using percentage of snaps played to figure out how much to extend them by. If anyone else wants to argue for something else, let me know.
Here is what Alex Smith's week against the Rams defense looked like, before his unfortunate injury:
|Att||Comp||Comp %||Yds||TDs||INTs||Sacks||Rush Yds||Rush TDs|
And here are the Week Ten rankings:TBA