Alex Smith Stat Prediction Game: Kaepernick Edition

Well, now, this is a surprise. No Alex this week, so what do we do with the stat prediction game? It is the Alex Smith Stat Prediction Game, after all. I've decided to make this a "make-up" game for everyone who missed one or more weeks of the game. Those who've played every snap, so to speak, are still welcome to participate, of course. I will replace everyone's lowest score with this week's score. For those who missed a week, this will always be a net positive. For those who haven't missed a week, there's a slight element of risk.

Here are the rules for the Alex Smith Stat Prediction Game, Kaepernick Edition: guess Kaepernick's passing stat line for the upcoming game (Bears at 49ers) using the following format in the comments below.

Rushing Yards (Optional):
Rushing TDs (Optional):

Feel free to revise your numbers all the way up to game time. I'll use only the most recent guess. If you want to update your numbers, please reply to your original comment with the revised guess.

NOTE: Although I'm not currently scoring rushing stats (yards and TDs), I'm considering doing something with them at some point. For now, if you'd like to add rushing stats to your guess, please do. I'll highlight the person with the closest rushing predictions in the results column.


The scoring is based on a 6-point system, with each of the following metrics accounting for a point: Attempts, Completion % (calculated from Cmp/Att numbers), Yards, TDs, INTs, and Sacks. It's a bit dry, but for the curious, here is how each of the metrics are scored:

Attempts: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualAtt - AttGuessed) / 12)

Completion %: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualComp% - (CompGuessed/AttGuessed * 100)) / 15)

Yards: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualYards - YardsGuessed) / 100)

TDs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualTDs - TDsGuessed) / 3)

INTs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualINTs - INTsGuessed) / 3)

Sacks: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualSacks - SacksGuessed) / 5)

The six scoring categories are added up to produce a composite score. The maximum that can be scored is 6 points; the minimum is 0. I'll keep a running leaderboard throughout the season, along with posting the weekly results.


Still figuring out what I want to do with these. I'm planning to project Alex Smith's stats over a full game using percentage of snaps played to figure out how much to extend them by. If anyone else wants to argue for something else, let me know.

Here is what Alex Smith's week against the Rams defense looked like, before his unfortunate injury:

Att Comp Comp % Yds TDs INTs Sacks Rush Yds Rush TDs
8 7 8.75% 72 1 0 2 5 0

And here are the Week Ten rankings:


Season Leaderboard:


This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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