The 49ers are back from their bye week, which means we get another chance to make picks against the spread and blow a few fake dollars fairly quickly! Last week we did not do well thanks to my decision to take the wrong upsets in a week in which there were few upsets. I went 7-7 for the week in a week in which favorites were 10-4 against the spread. I did happen to go 10-4 straight up, with the difference being my choices to take the Chiefs, Cardinals and Vikings to all cover, but lose to the favorite. Real smart.
The 49ers are sitting as 11 1/2 point favorites, which is only a half point increase from the opening line. Sportsbooks took a bath last week with favorites going 10-4 and drawing a lot of money from bettors. I learned something interesting last week, which is that after taking a big beating, bookies sometimes will extend out the lines a bit under the assumption that bettors coming off a big weekend of favorites are more inclined to double down on the favorites the next week.
Even if bookies are overestimating things, I think the 49ers can cover this line. Even if they focus on the run and control the clock, I think they can put up the kind of points needed to cover this. Sometimes people are a bit hesitant to jump on that kind of spread, but I really think in San Francisco, the 49ers are in a position to handle their business.
Lions (-1) @ Vikings: Vikings win outright
Rams @ 49ers (-11.5): 49ers cover
Chiefs @ Steelers (-12.5): Steelers cover
Versus the spread: 58-70-2