FanPost

Alex Smith Stat Prediction Game: Week Ten

The bye week is slowly creeping towards its close, to the relief of just about everyone. Three Sundays in a row without the 49ers on our TVs...a few things in life are just inherently wrong. That is one of them. Plus, it's like the week just isn't complete until Alex Smith has trolled us with another unexpected performance. 94.7% completion percentage? Are you kidding me? (You guys couldn't muster one more completion for the record? Argh, I know--stats are for losers--but records have to be the exception to the rule.)

How do you predict Alex Smith? You don't. You can't. But you try anyway. So give it a shot.

The rules are simple. Guess Alex Smith's passing stat line for the upcoming game (Rams at 49ers) using the following format in the comments below.

Attempts:
Completions:
Yards:
TDs:
INTs:
Sacks:
Rushing Yards (Optional):
Rushing TDs (Optional):


Feel free to revise your numbers all the way up to game time. I'll use only the most recent guess. If you want to update your numbers, please reply to your original comment with the revised guess.

NOTE: Although I'm not currently scoring rushing stats (yards and TDs), I'm considering doing something with them at some point. For now, if you'd like to add rushing stats to your guess, please do. I'll highlight the person with the closest rushing predictions in the results column.

Scoring:

The scoring is based on a 6-point system, with each of the following metrics accounting for a point: Attempts, Completion % (calculated from Cmp/Att numbers), Yards, TDs, INTs, and Sacks. It's a bit dry, but for the curious, here is how each of the metrics are scored:

Attempts: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualAtt - AttGuessed) / 12)

Completion %: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualComp% - (CompGuessed/AttGuessed * 100)) / 15)

Yards: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualYards - YardsGuessed) / 100)

TDs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualTDs - TDsGuessed) / 3)

INTs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualINTs - INTsGuessed) / 3)

Sacks: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualSacks - SacksGuessed) / 5)

The six scoring categories are added up to produce a composite score. The maximum that can be scored is 6 points; the minimum is 0. I'll keep a running leaderboard throughout the season, along with posting the weekly results.

WEEK EIGHT RESULTS

Last week's scoring summarized in a pithy sentence: LOL, us. The only person last week who didn't post a zero in the Completion Percentage category was ILNinerNut, who guessed a comparatively modest 83.3%. rlott#42 posted the worst score of us all, but still managed to cling to the #1 position in the season leaderboard. With everyone not named ILNinerNut netting a zero in Completion Percentage, no one posted a score above 4.0, and the race was close. Coming out on top were Fred.P.Soft, Ni9er, Desert Dog Runner, Average, and Edggy.

Here is what Alex Smith's week against the lauded Cardinals defense looked like:

Att Comp Comp % Yds TDs INTs Sacks Rush Yds Rush TDs
19 18 94.7% 232 3 0 4 6 0

And here are the Week Eight rankings:

Rank User Att Comp Comp % Yds TDs INTs Sacks A B C D E F Score
1 Fred.P.Soft 19 14 73.7% 201 2 0 2 1.00 0.00 0.69 0.67 1.00 0.60 3.96
2 Ni9er 24 16 66.7% 222 2 1 4 0.58 0.00 0.90 0.67 0.67 1.00 3.82
3 Desert Dog Runner 32 21 65.6% 231 2 0 4 0.00 0.00 0.99 0.67 1.00 1.00 3.66
4 Average 29 20 69.0% 227 2 0 3 0.17 0.00 0.95 0.67 1.00 0.80 3.59
5 Edggy 25 19 76.0% 267 2 0 2 0.50 0.00 0.65 0.67 1.00 0.60 3.42
6 bradyk2 30 23 76.7% 247 2 0 3 0.08 0.00 0.85 0.67 1.00 0.80 3.40
7 liberty_JAC 24 17 70.8% 168 3 0 1 0.58 0.00 0.36 1.00 1.00 0.40 3.34
8 Stupifyed 29 21 72.4% 244 2 0 2 0.17 0.00 0.88 0.67 1.00 0.60 3.32
9 Drew Kerr 32 24 75.0% 214 2 0 3 0.00 0.00 0.82 0.67 1.00 0.80 3.29
10 ILNinerNut 30 25 83.3% 278 3 0 1 0.08 0.24 0.54 1.00 1.00 0.40 3.26
11 NinerFanTucson 32 24 75.0% 253 2 0 3 0.00 0.00 0.79 0.67 1.00 0.80 3.26
12 Aaron Emerson 31 21 67.7% 254 2 0 3 0.00 0.00 0.78 0.67 1.00 0.80 3.25
13 reedkrase 30 22 73.3% 245 2 0 2 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.67 1.00 0.60 3.22
14 See Jay 25 17 68.0% 222 1 1 5 0.50 0.00 0.90 0.33 0.67 0.80 3.20
15 DeafWriterJC 34 24 70.6% 267 2 0 3 0.00 0.00 0.65 0.67 1.00 0.80 3.12
16 sik49er 31 23 74.2% 217 2 0 2 0.00 0.00 0.85 0.67 1.00 0.60 3.12
17 Bravedown50 28 17 60.7% 214 1 1 4 0.25 0.00 0.82 0.33 0.67 1.00 3.07
18 sanluisobispo49ers 24 18 75.0% 191 1 1 3 0.58 0.00 0.59 0.33 0.67 0.80 2.97
19 AzNiner 29 21 72.4% 246 1 0 2 0.17 0.00 0.86 0.33 1.00 0.60 2.96
20 Katydid 28 17 60.7% 190 1 0 3 0.25 0.00 0.58 0.33 1.00 0.80 2.96
21 16to80fan 24 16 66.7% 172 1 0 2 0.58 0.00 0.40 0.33 1.00 0.60 2.91
22 49erLou 31 22 71.0% 256 2 1 3 0.00 0.00 0.76 0.67 0.67 0.80 2.90
23 runningblack 28 20 71.4% 220 1 0 1 0.25 0.00 0.88 0.33 1.00 0.40 2.86
24 PNK 31 24 77.4% 202 2 1 3 0.00 0.00 0.70 0.67 0.67 0.80 2.84
25 Linus Jorgensen 31 24 77.4% 264 2 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.68 0.67 1.00 0.20 2.55
26 rlott#42 35 19 54.3% 194 1 2 3 0.00 0.00 0.62 0.33 0.33 0.80 2.08

Season Leaderboard:

Rank Last Wk Name Wk 01 Wk 02 Wk 03 Wk 04 Wk 05 Wk 06 Wk 07 Wk 08 Total Average
1 1 rlott#42 4.57 5.21 3.13 3.95 3.48 4.27 4.94 2.08 31.63 3.95
2 2 Katydid 4.07 5.32 3.85 3.47 3.38 2.96 4.85 2.96 30.86 3.86
3 3 Desert Dog Runner 3.99 5.41 4.55 2.29 3.54 4.06 3.34 3.66 30.84 3.86
4 4 Average 4.16 5.22 3.46 2.58 4.04 2.84 3.44 3.59 29.33 3.67
5 6 Drew Kerr 2.81 4.79 3.41 3.06 3.01 4.20 2.38 3.29 26.95 3.37
6 5 sik49er 4.45 4.28 3.18 2.73 3.06 2.35 3.71 3.12 26.88 3.36
7 7 49erLou 3.65 4.60 3.50 2.75 4.25 1.83 2.87 2.90 26.35 3.29
8 8 bradyk2 3.47 4.43 2.70 1.80 4.72 2.52 3.02 3.40 26.06 3.26
9 9 liberty_JAC 3.46 3.26 3.35 2.44 4.05 2.09 3.62 3.34 25.61 3.20
10 10 Aaron Emerson 4.26 4.95 3.36 2.55 3.39 2.65 - 3.25 24.41 3.49
11 12 reedkrase - 5.06 - 3.54 4.34 2.84 4.27 3.22 23.27 3.88
12 13 Ni9er 3.44 3.82 3.73 2.65 3.42 1.96 - 3.82 22.84 3.26
13 14 16to80fan 4.86 - 4.18 2.87 3.82 2.84 - 2.91 21.48 3.58
14 17 Fred.P.Soft 3.84 4.30 2.53 2.70 3.79 - - 3.96 21.12 3.52
15 15 Bravedown50 4.84 - 3.20 2.70 - 2.96 4.09 3.07 20.86 3.48
16 11 Delmuir - 4.61 4.14 4.05 3.66 3.71 - - 20.17 4.03
17 20 Edggy - 4.22 2.80 2.13 4.64 1.92 - 3.42 19.13 3.19
18 19 Stupifyed 2.37 5.03 - 1.88 3.05 - 3.40 3.32 19.05 3.18
19 22 AzNiner 4.48 4.32 - 2.25 3.70 - - 2.96 17.71 3.54
20 16 whistlingmountain 3.24 4.59 4.13 2.74 2.91 - - - 17.61 3.52
21 18 SH0ck-D 3.50 3.83 3.67 2.43 2.85 - - - 16.28 3.26
22 23 PNK - - - 2.52 3.13 3.22 4.35 2.84 16.06 3.21
23 21 ak4niner 3.97 - 1.97 2.50 4.71 2.29 - - 15.44 3.09
24 24 sanluisobispo49ers - 3.08 2.92 - - 1.35 4.05 2.97 14.37 2.87
25 25 ILNinerNut - - - - 4.65 2.44 3.34 3.26 13.69 3.42
26 26 See Jay - - - 3.75 2.30 4.13 - 3.20 13.38 3.35
27 27 leaping_larry 3.95 - - - - - 4.24 - 8.19 4.10
28 30 NinerFanTucson - - - - - - 3.48 3.26 6.74 3.37
29 31 DeafWriterJC - - - - - 3.09 - 3.12 6.21 3.11
30 28 4ty9er - - - - - 2.16 3.04 - 5.20 2.60
31 NR Linus Jorgensen - - - 2.26 - - - 2.55 4.81 2.41
32 29 grabtree15 - - - - - 1.43 3.15 - 4.58 2.29
33 NR runningblack - - - - - - - 2.86 2.86 2.86
34 32 Burnin Davis - - - - - - 2.38 - 2.38 2.38
35 33 djww - - - - - 2.37 - - 2.37 2.37
36 34 papa.gomes - - - - - 1.15 - - 1.15 1.15

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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