FanPost

Alex Smith Stat Prediction Game: Week Ten

The bye week is slowly creeping towards its close, to the relief of just about everyone. Three Sundays in a row without the 49ers on our TVs...a few things in life are just inherently wrong. That is one of them. Plus, it's like the week just isn't complete until Alex Smith has trolled us with another unexpected performance. 94.7% completion percentage? Are you kidding me? (You guys couldn't muster one more completion for the record? Argh, I know--stats are for losers--but records have to be the exception to the rule.)

How do you predict Alex Smith? You don't. You can't. But you try anyway. So give it a shot.

The rules are simple. Guess Alex Smith's passing stat line for the upcoming game (Rams at 49ers) using the following format in the comments below.

Attempts:
Completions:
Yards:
TDs:
INTs:
Sacks:
Rushing Yards (Optional):
Rushing TDs (Optional):


Feel free to revise your numbers all the way up to game time. I'll use only the most recent guess. If you want to update your numbers, please reply to your original comment with the revised guess.

NOTE: Although I'm not currently scoring rushing stats (yards and TDs), I'm considering doing something with them at some point. For now, if you'd like to add rushing stats to your guess, please do. I'll highlight the person with the closest rushing predictions in the results column.

Scoring:

The scoring is based on a 6-point system, with each of the following metrics accounting for a point: Attempts, Completion % (calculated from Cmp/Att numbers), Yards, TDs, INTs, and Sacks. It's a bit dry, but for the curious, here is how each of the metrics are scored:

Attempts: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualAtt - AttGuessed) / 12)

Completion %: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualComp% - (CompGuessed/AttGuessed * 100)) / 15)

Yards: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualYards - YardsGuessed) / 100)

TDs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualTDs - TDsGuessed) / 3)

INTs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualINTs - INTsGuessed) / 3)

Sacks: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualSacks - SacksGuessed) / 5)

The six scoring categories are added up to produce a composite score. The maximum that can be scored is 6 points; the minimum is 0. I'll keep a running leaderboard throughout the season, along with posting the weekly results.

WEEK EIGHT RESULTS

Last week's scoring summarized in a pithy sentence: LOL, us. The only person last week who didn't post a zero in the Completion Percentage category was ILNinerNut, who guessed a comparatively modest 83.3%. rlott#42 posted the worst score of us all, but still managed to cling to the #1 position in the season leaderboard. With everyone not named ILNinerNut netting a zero in Completion Percentage, no one posted a score above 4.0, and the race was close. Coming out on top were Fred.P.Soft, Ni9er, Desert Dog Runner, Average, and Edggy.

Here is what Alex Smith's week against the lauded Cardinals defense looked like:

AttCompComp %YdsTDsINTsSacksRush YdsRush TDs
191894.7%23230460

And here are the Week Eight rankings:

RankUserAttCompComp %YdsTDsINTsSacksABCDEFScore
1Fred.P.Soft191473.7%2012021.000.000.690.671.000.603.96
2Ni9er241666.7%2222140.580.000.900.670.671.003.82
3Desert Dog Runner322165.6%2312040.000.000.990.671.001.003.66
4Average292069.0%2272030.170.000.950.671.000.803.59
5Edggy251976.0%2672020.500.000.650.671.000.603.42
6bradyk2302376.7%2472030.080.000.850.671.000.803.40
7liberty_JAC241770.8%1683010.580.000.361.001.000.403.34
8Stupifyed292172.4%2442020.170.000.880.671.000.603.32
9Drew Kerr322475.0%2142030.000.000.820.671.000.803.29
10ILNinerNut302583.3%2783010.080.240.541.001.000.403.26
11NinerFanTucson322475.0%2532030.000.000.790.671.000.803.26
12Aaron Emerson312167.7%2542030.000.000.780.671.000.803.25
13reedkrase302273.3%2452020.080.000.870.671.000.603.22
14See Jay251768.0%2221150.500.000.900.330.670.803.20
15DeafWriterJC342470.6%2672030.000.000.650.671.000.803.12
16sik49er312374.2%2172020.000.000.850.671.000.603.12
17Bravedown50281760.7%2141140.250.000.820.330.671.003.07
18sanluisobispo49ers241875.0%1911130.580.000.590.330.670.802.97
19AzNiner292172.4%2461020.170.000.860.331.000.602.96
20Katydid281760.7%1901030.250.000.580.331.000.802.96
2116to80fan241666.7%1721020.580.000.400.331.000.602.91
2249erLou312271.0%2562130.000.000.760.670.670.802.90
23runningblack282071.4%2201010.250.000.880.331.000.402.86
24PNK312477.4%2022130.000.000.700.670.670.802.84
25Linus Jorgensen312477.4%2642000.000.000.680.671.000.202.55
26rlott#42351954.3%1941230.000.000.620.330.330.802.08

Season Leaderboard:

RankLast WkNameWk 01Wk 02Wk 03Wk 04Wk 05Wk 06Wk 07Wk 08TotalAverage
11rlott#424.575.213.133.953.484.274.942.0831.633.95
22Katydid4.075.323.853.473.382.964.852.9630.863.86
33Desert Dog Runner3.995.414.552.293.544.063.343.6630.843.86
44Average4.165.223.462.584.042.843.443.5929.333.67
56Drew Kerr2.814.793.413.063.014.202.383.2926.953.37
65sik49er4.454.283.182.733.062.353.713.1226.883.36
7749erLou3.654.603.502.754.251.832.872.9026.353.29
88bradyk23.474.432.701.804.722.523.023.4026.063.26
99liberty_JAC3.463.263.352.444.052.093.623.3425.613.20
1010Aaron Emerson4.264.953.362.553.392.65-3.2524.413.49
1112reedkrase-5.06-3.544.342.844.273.2223.273.88
1213Ni9er3.443.823.732.653.421.96-3.8222.843.26
131416to80fan4.86-4.182.873.822.84-2.9121.483.58
1417Fred.P.Soft3.844.302.532.703.79--3.9621.123.52
1515Bravedown504.84-3.202.70-2.964.093.0720.863.48
1611Delmuir-4.614.144.053.663.71--20.174.03
1720Edggy-4.222.802.134.641.92-3.4219.133.19
1819Stupifyed2.375.03-1.883.05-3.403.3219.053.18
1922AzNiner4.484.32-2.253.70--2.9617.713.54
2016whistlingmountain3.244.594.132.742.91---17.613.52
2118SH0ck-D3.503.833.672.432.85---16.283.26
2223PNK---2.523.133.224.352.8416.063.21
2321ak4niner3.97-1.972.504.712.29--15.443.09
2424sanluisobispo49ers-3.082.92--1.354.052.9714.372.87
2525ILNinerNut----4.652.443.343.2613.693.42
2626See Jay---3.752.304.13-3.2013.383.35
2727leaping_larry3.95-----4.24-8.194.10
2830NinerFanTucson------3.483.266.743.37
2931DeafWriterJC-----3.09-3.126.213.11
30284ty9er-----2.163.04-5.202.60
31NRLinus Jorgensen---2.26---2.554.812.41
3229grabtree15-----1.433.15-4.582.29
33NRrunningblack-------2.862.862.86
3432Burnin Davis------2.38-2.382.38
3533djww-----2.37--2.372.37
3634papa.gomes-----1.15--1.151.15

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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