Yes we all know statistics are for losers, but some of us just can’t help ourselves.
Here are some further breakdowns offense and defense for both teams:
Avg. Pts. by half and quarter (last 3 game avg. in parenthesis)
19.5 (24.3) 1st half, 16.6 (13.7) 2nd half
Of that 7.9 (7.0) in 1st quarter, 7.2 (2.3) in 3rd quarter
10.5 (9) 1st half, 13.8 (14.7) 2nd half
Of that 3.8 (4.7) in 1st quarter, 5.8 (7) in 3rd quarter
No shocker here, we start slow, and the Patriots have really been hitting opponents hard in the 2nd Q averaging over 17pts. in the last 3 games. Perhaps an indication of that quick offense wearing down defenses before half time. Interesting to note we’ve been outscoring the Pats in the 2nd half over the course of the last 3 games. Nice to see we make adjustments at the half and they are, for the most part, effective.
3rd down conversions:
NE: 52.46% (57.14%) converting 7.4 (8.0) per game. (makes for some long drives)
SF: 36.13% (38.1%) converting 4.3 (5.3) per game.
Pretty obvious what we have to do here, convert on 3rd down or simply stay out of 3rd down situations… The Pats are first in the league averaging 73.3 play on offense per game, the Niners rank 31st with 60.1. If you pro-rated the # of 1st downs we avg. per game on running the same amount of plays we would be 2nd in the league behind NE averaging 25.0 1st downs per game instead of the 20.5 we’re at now (NE averages 27.8 1st downs per game). Our offense is just as potent as the Patriots O in picking up 1st downs on 1st and 2nd down. The Pats avg. 20.4 1st downs per game, while our pro-ration would put us at 19.8 1st down per game. They avg. 5.2 plays per 3rd down attempt, while we average 5.1. It’s clear that we need to improve our 3rd down production, and essentially not much has changed from last year. We have made some huge strides however, we’ve moved up 8.02%, which is the third best improvement in the league (Denver 12.71%, Indy 8.58%), our last 3 games % would bump us up from 21st to 17th on the season.
Avg. Pts. Allowed by half and quarter (last 3 game avg. in parenthesis)
9.1 (4.3) 1st half, 12.0 (12.0) 2nd half
Of that 3.8 (1.0) in 1st quarter, 4.7 (5.3) in 3rd quarter
6.2 (5.7) 1st half, 7.8 (10.0) 2nd half
Of that 2.8 (2.3) in 1st quarter, 3.2 (4.0) in 3rd quarter
Nothing shocking here either, except that the Patriots D has really stepped it up at the start of games recently, allowing only a field goal in the first quarter of their last 3 games, which doesn’t bode well for our slow starting offense. Getting out to a quick start and not falling behind early is extremely important against such an explosive team. Finally our D needs to finish the game just as strongly as we start and try not to get gassed by the 4th quarter.
Our D is 2nd in the league in allowing a 31.43% 3rd down conversion rate (27.50% in the last 3 games), Houston is first at just under 30% and they held the Pats to 50% on Monday night…By comparison NE is 26th in the league at 41.72% but they’re down around 27% the last 3 games.
We’re 2nd in 1st downs allowed per game at 16.8, but 1st in 1st downs per play, NE ranks 27th and 29th respectively, surrendering a 1st down every 3rd play on average.
Anyways, just some more numbers for any fellow stat junkies/losers. I’m getting excited butterflies for this game already and it’s only Thursday. Go Niners go!!!
P.S. Here is a look at our 3 and outs this season on offense:
The black line is our season average
The red/purple line is a running 4 game average (looks at the 4 most recent games)
The blue line is our running season average