Just some important numbers/facts I thought I'd share:
- Alex Smith takes the 5th longest time in the NFL to throw the ball. Those that take longer: Wilson, Vick, Newton, RG3. All mobile QB's.
- With Smith starting, 34% of pressures have been turned into sacks. That's the worst in the NFL. With Kaepernick, just 18.4% of pressures are turned into sacks.
- Under pressure, Smith has completed 50% of his passes (20/40) with 8 throw aways, 0 drops. 2nd worst of QB's that have taken at least 25% of snaps this season. Kaepernick has completed 55% (17/31) with 5 throw aways, 3 drops. (65% without the drops)
- In 9 starts, Smith has 6 completions of 30+ yards. In 3 starts, Kaepernick has 6 completions of 30+ yards (and a 50 yard run)
- Kaepernick has thrown one INT in 106 attempts. Smith throws an INT every 43 attempts and is taking less risks.
- Kaepernick is 3rd in the NFL in 'Run EPA' (points added/lost from scrambles/designed rushes/fumbles), only behind Luck and Newton. Smith is 17th.
For those that weight "clutch" numbers more heavily...
- In total QBR, Kaepernick is at 80.2. Would be 2nd in the NFL if qualified. Smith is at 69.8. In the game vs. the Rams, Kaepernick's QBR was 82.4
- In the 4th quarter ("Eli Time"), Kaepernick is 20/29 (69%) for 401 total yards (rushing included), 2 total TD's, and a 95.2 QB rating. Smith is 19/34 (56%) for 247 total yards, 2 TD's, 2 INT's, and a 66.2 QB rating.
We're dealing with smaller sample sizes for Kaepernick, but let's summarize:
- Kaepernick is better at avoiding sacks
- Kaepernick is better under pressure
- Kaepernick is better at throwing deep
- Kaepernick is more elusive
- Kaepernick is a much better runner
- Kaepernick throws fewer interceptions
- Kaepernick is better in "crunch time"
Those are just the objective facts.
If you don't like those, use the "eye test". If you've done that and still can't see how Kaepernick brings more to this offense than Smith, then I'm not sure what else anyone can say to you. You've already made up your mind.
(all stats from Pro Football Focus or ESPN)