FanPost

Third Down Passing, by the numbers

Third Down Passing, by the numbers

This isn't really a contest on third down. Both faced an average of 3rd an 8 when they got a touch (non-handoff):

- Alex Smith had a 32.8% conversion %

- Colin Kaepernick has a 40% conversion %

- Excluding Turnovers, Alex Smith got only about 2/3rds of the yardage necessary for the first down.

- Excluding turnovers, Colin Kaepernick gets 2/3rds MORE than the yardage necessary for the first down.

- Variance/consistency/distribution: almost equal. Smith's coefficient of variation is 2.3 while Kaep's is 2.18 (lower = less volatility)

Want to control for outliers? Taking out the top 5% of 3rd down conversions (and turnover plays):

- Smith gets 46% of the yardage necessary for the first down on average.

- Kaepernick gets 5% more yardage than necessary for the first down on average

- Variance: Smith's CV is 2.68, Kaepernick's is 1.42

Takeaway: Kaepernick gets much more yardage than Smith on third down, on a consistent basis

Finally, Expected Points Added (EPA) per play on Third Down and Fourth Down:

Smith: 0.018 expected points added per play (1.3 total)

Kaep: 0.237 expected points added per play (11.15 total)

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.