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49ers QB Colin Kaepernick: When Does He Make His Move?

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We'll have a grading post for Colin Kaepernick once we get into the Ks, but in the meantime, there has been enough discussion over the last six months that I wanted to come up with something sooner to ask a more specific question. It is going to be hard to really assign any sort of grade to Kaepernick given his lack of appearances, so more than likely it will simply have to be an incomplete.

Nonetheless, there has been enough discussion about Kaepernick in posts that I wanted to ask when people think he makes his first start, if ever for the 49ers. At this point I understand that this is a shot in the dark for the most part. Some people like Kaepernick's upside, some people are not fans, and others aren't quite sure what to make of the big QB.

I bring this up now in part because of a variety of comments in the media. In his season-ending press conference, Coach Harbaugh has often spoken about how everything is a competition. In his end of season press conference he repeated this when asked whether if he returned, Alex Smith would be the starting QB in 2012 or if Kaepernick might get a chance to show the staff what he can do.

Star-divide

While there might be a competition, Coach Harbaugh has also made it known in a more general sense that Alex Smith is his guy. Of course, if Alex struggles mightily in training camp, that opens the door for Kaepernick, but it would seem that this would be a rather weighted competition for Alex Smith if/when he returns. Kaepernick indicated he is prepared to battle for the starting job. It's a plus that he is fired up to show what he's got, but there's a bit of distance between showing what he's got and surpassing Alex Smith on the depth chart.

Even if his chances are slim, this remains an incredibly important offseason for the rising second year QB. This will be his first full offseason with the coaching staff following a rookie year slowed by the lockout. He will get all offseason to work with Coach Harbaugh, OC Greg Roman and QB coach Geep Chryst. If the 49ers bring back Alex Smith to a three or four year contract, Colin Kaepernick will be in a position to continue trying to improve his various mechanics, learn the playbook and work to impress the coaching staff one day at a time.

Given all that, when (if at all) does Colin Kaepernick work his way into the 49ers starting lineup, assuming it is not because of injury to Alex Smith? It is an educated guess at the very best, and more like a shot in the dark, but I'm curious how people see the 49ers QB situation developing in the coming years.

Poll
Barring injury to Alex Smith, when will Colin Kaepernick make his first career regular season start for the 49ers?
Week 1, 2012
46 votes
Middle of 2012
162 votes
Week 16 or 17 of 2012 after playoff bye secured (resting starters)
325 votes
Week 1, 2013
180 votes
Later in 2013
230 votes
2014
305 votes
2015 or beyond
191 votes
Never
174 votes

1613 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 156 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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It seems that he is not ready

The way the coaches are shielding him indicates to me that there is a lot to be fixed. I think as long as Alex is still around Colin will not start for the next couple of year. He will finish games but not start them. Obviously this my personal opinion and we know what they say about opinions :D

by salem on Feb 10, 2012 9:13 AM PST reply actions  

To be fair...

The coaches shield all players.

ROCK #2

by monkeyklawz on Feb 10, 2012 9:19 AM PST up reply actions  

Aren't they shield Kaep to keep the focus on Alex Smith?

The public man-crush on AS is to stop speculation about any potential QB controversy.

by asmithisaverage on Feb 10, 2012 9:39 AM PST up reply actions  

Perfect Situation for Kap...

He is not ready but has major abilities. He needs to be trained in pro-style, like steve young, and maybe in a year or two, we will see. Don’t throw him to the dogs like Alex was, look what happened to him. He needs to learn to drop back, take snaps, read defenses and all the little things that make a QB good. He as the physical tools, Harbaugh just needs to mold him into a QB. Then when he gets a shot, boom goes the dynamite!!!!

ROCK #2

by monkeyklawz on Feb 10, 2012 9:17 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

Agreed, perfect situation for Kaepernick

He was pretty raw coming out of Nevada, so having Alex play well meant getting a year or even two or three to learn the offense an get a feel for the speed of the pro game.
Plus, he’s getting the coaching we all wish, in retrospect, that Alex would’ve gotten.

We still have Harbaugh. So there's hope.

by grantmp on Feb 10, 2012 10:12 AM PST via mobile up reply actions  

I can't wait until Kaep starts.

He gives us hope. Hope that one day we will have a QB that everyone wishes about. A day where our QB helps us win games instead of not losing. A day where we will bring home the Lombardi in back to back to back years.

And when we win, we want to dominate. We want to take guys out. We want to hurt guys. We want to win. We just want to dominate, hit them in the mouth. - Rathman

by manraj7 on Feb 10, 2012 9:21 AM PST via iPhone app reply actions   1 recs

a day

when not every NN thread does not turn into an attack/defense of a certain player

by mcwagner on Feb 10, 2012 9:25 AM PST up reply actions  

Just watch this thread for a few hours. lol

I am not an Alex hater, I'm an Alex apologist hater. Now you know. -Mr Moses

by rlott#42 on Feb 10, 2012 9:31 AM PST up reply actions  

it is not an attack on a player, just their on field performance.

"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin

by HUNGRY HUNTER on Feb 10, 2012 12:48 PM PST up reply actions  

rec!

"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin

by HUNGRY HUNTER on Feb 10, 2012 12:47 PM PST up reply actions  

I love that

Kaepernick has amazing arm strength, pinpoint accuracy, and mobility to rival the best in the business. Oh, and has a QB guru in Harbaugh and mentor in Smith. I think that he will hit the ground running and everyone will be complaining that we should have started him sooner. I don’t think we should shield him just because it was bad for Smith. If Kaepernick is the best man, start him.

by mcwagner on Feb 10, 2012 9:29 AM PST reply actions  

This
If Kaepernick is the best man, start him.

But this goes for anyone – Alex Smith, Shaun Hill, David Carr, Troy Smith, JT O’Sullivan – whoever is deemed the best by the coaches, start him. Let the man win the spot. (But let me say, I don’t think any of those guys would beat Alex now if given a fair shot at it)

I have faith in the coaches that they will choose the best man – not the one that was brought in for whatever reason. JT O’Sullivan didn’t work because he was Martz’s “guy,” not because he was best at training camp.

In Harbaugh we trust!

We still believe!!

Become a fan on facebook! www.facebook.com/goldenstateofmind

by R Dizzle on Feb 10, 2012 9:37 AM PST up reply actions  

why oh why did you have to bring back memories where JTO was our QB?!?!?!

Rule #1) If you hate Joe Buck, watch this www.youtube.com/watch?v=fkCSZKbyL94

Rule #2) Follow rule #1

by mtl9ers14 on Feb 10, 2012 10:33 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

JTO has the highest 3rd down completion percentage in the past 7 years.

not everything he did was bad.

"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin

by HUNGRY HUNTER on Feb 10, 2012 12:50 PM PST up reply actions  

awesome

"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin

by HUNGRY HUNTER on Feb 11, 2012 12:59 AM PST up reply actions  

Third down conversion as a QB stat is so weird. First, microsplit. Second, it’s fairly dependent on the running game.

It has its uses, but I don’t think it means anything in the context of JTO.

Once more, coming to you by proxy.

by howtheyscored on Feb 10, 2012 4:37 PM PST up reply actions  

has any qb in the past 7 years been given a "fair shot"?

"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin

by HUNGRY HUNTER on Feb 10, 2012 12:49 PM PST up reply actions  

who was that?

"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin

by HUNGRY HUNTER on Feb 10, 2012 12:50 PM PST up reply actions  

The Detroit Lions’ version of the Alex Smith controversy. They tried over and over to load him with weapons and prove they made the right choice. Ruined the franchise. That’s why they took a WR every year

by mcwagner on Feb 10, 2012 1:09 PM PST up reply actions  

oh, lol

"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin

by HUNGRY HUNTER on Feb 10, 2012 1:36 PM PST up reply actions  

Nobody thinks

they kept drafting WR’s because none of them ever really panned out, Charles Rogers, Roy Williams…

by Doni S on Feb 10, 2012 1:42 PM PST via mobile up reply actions  

Depends on what you mean by “fair”. If you mean, “What he deserves,” I’d have to think about it. If you mean, “Every chance no matter what,” then Mark Sanchez.

Once more, coming to you by proxy.

by howtheyscored on Feb 10, 2012 12:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Nice ...!!

I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!

by Edggy on Feb 10, 2012 1:01 PM PST up reply actions  

mark sanchez lol; sanchez has improved every year though; just not at a fast pace. But I was referring to the Niners qb situation.

And I would actually take sanchez over someone else…

"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin

by HUNGRY HUNTER on Feb 10, 2012 1:02 PM PST up reply actions  

While I agree that the bashing of Sanchez is largely unwarrented

He has ball security issues even when playing timidly. He is regressing in leadership and is not improving that much on the field. He is a below average quarterback that has yet to be benched.

by mcwagner on Feb 10, 2012 1:16 PM PST up reply actions  

this

Smith>Sanchez

I am not an Alex hater, I'm an Alex apologist hater. Now you know. -Mr Moses

by rlott#42 on Feb 10, 2012 1:29 PM PST up reply actions  

+50

Who's got it better than Honey Badger? Honey Badger don't give a ....

Kaepernick's raw talent + Harbaugh's coaching = Hall of Fame QB

by ak4niner on Feb 10, 2012 4:41 PM PST up reply actions  

he has increased his yardage, % and, td’s every year. his first two years he was also not asked to do much where as this year he was asked to do alot as the defense was not as good this year.

he may not be the best leader but his wideouts and his coach all talk to much crap and have big mouths; their whole locker room was a mess this year.

"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin

by HUNGRY HUNTER on Feb 10, 2012 1:41 PM PST up reply actions  

Sanchez is not good

183 increase in yards, 1.9% increase, if he threw one more interception he would match his last year’s td-int ratio. All that increase while, as you said, is asked to do more. Their team is a mess, and he is one of the reasons for that.

by mcwagner on Feb 10, 2012 2:00 PM PST up reply actions  

if he threw one more interception he would match his last year’s td-int ratio.

Hey, this really supports my theory below!

Also notable is that many people take adjusted yards per attempt (or adjusted net yards, or regular yards, or net yards) to be a great micro-indicator of overall performance, and he did worse in all of them in 2011 than 2010.

Once more, coming to you by proxy.

by howtheyscored on Feb 10, 2012 2:08 PM PST up reply actions  

I think it’s up for debate whether Sanchez actually improved in 2011. His uptick in both TDs and INTs tells me primarily that he just took a lot more shots, but wasn’t really any more successful at taking them.

Like, if I turn 15% of my shots into TDs and 10% into INTs, the totals just depend on what percentage of my total throws are “shots”, assuming non-shots wash out well enough. So I throw 500 times and take 100 shots, I get 15 TDs and 10 INTs. Out of the total 500 throws, that 15 looks kinda low, and that 10 looks pretty good.

But now say I get the same number of throws the next season, but take twice as many shots. Now I have 30 TDs and 20 INTs. Those TD numbers look great, but those INT numbers are getting ugly.

My conversion rate on those risky throws is no different from before. I’m just taking them at a greater rate. And both lines look super different in the context of 500 total attempts.

But Sanchez’s other numbers are all pretty much in line with his 2010. Marginal uptick in what is still a bad completion rate. Identical to slightly worse yard per attempt, adjusted or not.

So the main difference to me is that the coaches went, “Hey Sanchez, let it rip a little more this year.” But I don’t know that he’s actually any better at letting it rip than he ever was. And he’s certainly no better at anything else.

Long story short, that was confusing.

Once more, coming to you by proxy.

by howtheyscored on Feb 10, 2012 2:05 PM PST up reply actions  

And I mean, “taking shots” is total unscientific armchair analysis. I own up to that completely.

But it also supports my theory that Mark Sanchez is not improving, and that he sucks. And I like things that support that theory. And so should you.

Once more, coming to you by proxy.

by howtheyscored on Feb 10, 2012 2:12 PM PST up reply actions  

I can only see him starting at all next year if Alex is hurt, Alex plays that poorly, or he practices so well, that its a no brainer. I don’t see this happening at all. I personally think the offense is simplified enough for a young QB to start. But time on the bench is good. First start 2013, unless an unfortunate injury occurs and he looks like the better option, than watch the niners get media coverage.

I am not an Alex hater, I'm an Alex apologist hater. Now you know. -Mr Moses

by rlott#42 on Feb 10, 2012 9:34 AM PST reply actions  

Well, right now Coach Harbaugh and Alex appear to be un-seperatable....

I live in Monterey and Alex is Harbaugh caddy here at our AT&T Golf (by the way the sun is out and what a beautiful day!)

Anyways if we just think about how far Harbaugh has improved Alex…..then you just know that behind the scene Harbaugh and our Q.B. coach may be doing the same exact thing with Colin.

Kaepernick appears to have all the physical tools for sure, and he also appears to be a competitor and very smart kid.

I think Kaepernick potential has a higher ceiling than Alex simply because Colin has the clearly superior physical tools and again, he may be just as smart as Alex.

Bottom Line: Colin may challenge this season, one never knows, but more than likey he will be more than ready to challenge Alex in 2013 for sure.

by BigMar on Feb 10, 2012 9:36 AM PST reply actions  

Training Camp and Pre-Season

He has to show that not only is he better, but that it isn’t even close. Unfortunately for him he’s also going to need some luck. He has to show that he can make passes that we don’t see Alex even attempting, and he has to do it without getting picked.

Alex isn’t the answer. Alex is never going to be the answer. But until there is one he is the default.

The most realistic scenario is that our turnover ratio and average starting field position will regress to the point that our offense can’t ride the D and ST like it did this year and we are going to have to accept the risk of throwing into tight windows like the good quarterbacks in this league do on a regular basis. That is well out of Alex’s comfort zone and we’ll see Kaepernick in 2013.

Whether that will be a second disaster nobody can really say since we haven’t seen enough of Kaepernick. But he has the potential to be very good.

Every time Jamie Dukes says something enlightening and informative about football Jerry Rice and I mount up on our flying grizzly bears and claim pirate treasure from the moon. That's how often it happens.

by Ougadas on Feb 10, 2012 9:39 AM PST reply actions   2 recs

old habits are hard to break

six years of hatred can’t be erased by one season, two come from behind 80 plus yard drives, and two ST flubs away from a super bowl we would have won

we didn’t lose the nfc title game because of alex. we had no receivers worth mentioning, and yet alex and company still almost won. give him a quality number one receiver, and all this garbage about alex not being the answer will go away.

in a perfect world, we resign dashon and carlos, sign/draft a good wr who can make an immediate impact, and sign mario williams. good lord, we’d be scary.

oh, and i want a pony with whipped cream and a cherry on top.

by dallasthedog on Feb 10, 2012 10:26 AM PST up reply actions  

So the touchdown pass he had delanie open on, and decides not to throw and took a sack had nothing to do with it? You can’t blame one person, there is always a previous action that could have changed the situation. It’s not Alexs fault solely, but he had his hand in it and so did Williams.

I am not an Alex hater, I'm an Alex apologist hater. Now you know. -Mr Moses

by rlott#42 on Feb 10, 2012 11:14 AM PST up reply actions  

if you expect perfection from your qb, then you’re going to be sorely disappointed with every qb in the league. he led two long game winning drives against the saints. i just don’t see that in kap next season.

my thinking is that alex made drastic advancement this past year because he finally had a coach who believed in him and a system designed for him. i see him making more advances next season when, hopefully, he will have a legit outside threat.

as far as kap goes, maybe he will live up to his potential, but right now he’s just a bunch of college film highlights and a bunch of residual anti-alex hype. i hope he becomes the second coming of steve young, but right now i hope he sits for the next two years and hones his skills and craft.

by dallasthedog on Feb 10, 2012 11:57 AM PST up reply actions  

Make an attempt to throw at your first read that is open is not expecting perfection.

Alexs advancement was not drastic, it was very simple, above mediocre, not drastic by any means. The offense was not.designed for him, that’s ridiculous. If the offense was designed for him and this is his level of offensive production, how could you claim it to be a drastic change. Back to making the throw on your first read, please explain how that is expecting perfection when discussing one play. It’s the same throw he made to VD and to Delanie vs Dallas, it was one of his better throws all season.

I am not an Alex hater, I'm an Alex apologist hater. Now you know. -Mr Moses

by rlott#42 on Feb 10, 2012 12:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Unfortantely the data doesn't support this narrative
my thinking is that alex made drastic advancement this past year because he finally had a coach who believed in him and a system designed for him. i see him making more advances next season when, hopefully, he will have a legit outside threat.

Here is a little tidbit from Football Outsiders 2011 season preview where they spent a lot of time hammering home how Alex transitioned into an average QB the 2nd half of the 2010 season.

That seemed to be a watershed moment for Smith (being Singletary/Smith yelling match on the sidelines of the Eagles game), who was quietly efficient from that point on. Through Week 5, Smith had thrown six touchdowns and nine interceptions, and ranked 30th out of 39 qualifying quarterbacks with a DVOA of -17.6%. From Week 6 onward, he threw eight touchdowns with only one interception, and his DVOA of 10.1% ranked 19th out of
44. He was consistent, too, with a DVOA of 12.4% or higher in all but one of his games over the second half of the season. His late success, though, was masked
by that 0-5 record and the ensuing quarterback controversy — the random, chaotic quarterback controversy.

Notice the 10.1% DVOA after Week 5 in 2010. Alex Smith’s DVOA for the entire 2011 season was 10.4% (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb). Despite all the rhetoric and love notes his jump in improvement came in 2010 after a public ass chewing from Singletary and he has been the same exact player since.

by bignerd on Feb 10, 2012 12:24 PM PST up reply actions  

This too is what I fear for 2012

The most realistic scenario is that our turnover ratio and average starting field position will regress to the point that our offense can’t ride the D and ST like it did this year and we are going to have to accept the risk of throwing into tight windows like the good quarterbacks in this league do on a regular basis. That is well out of Alex’s comfort zone and we’ll see Kaepernick in 2013.

by asmithisaverage on Feb 10, 2012 12:08 PM PST up reply actions  

Can I say that I agree with you?

"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin

by HUNGRY HUNTER on Feb 10, 2012 12:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Maybe just this once.

Every time Jamie Dukes says something enlightening and informative about football Jerry Rice and I mount up on our flying grizzly bears and claim pirate treasure from the moon. That's how often it happens.

by Ougadas on Feb 10, 2012 12:55 PM PST up reply actions  

ok, I agree with you!

"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin

by HUNGRY HUNTER on Feb 10, 2012 12:56 PM PST up reply actions  

Impossible To Say

Hope to get a better look at CK7 next pre-season. Maybe then I can form an opinion of him.

Agent Dunham....Walternate testified that in his universe, AleX Smith is a pro-bowl QB for the Saints, and broke Trent Dilfer's season record of 6000 yards passing. Walter....Thats nice, more LSD please.

by scrappydog on Feb 10, 2012 9:45 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

So much this....

How can we have any idea until he actually plays?

ROCK #2

by monkeyklawz on Feb 10, 2012 9:49 AM PST up reply actions  

agree

I think it’s hard to tell, but this post is more just meant to see where mindsets are currently at.

by David Fucillo on Feb 10, 2012 9:51 AM PST up reply actions  

It is hard to tell

But he’s being set up for success. Has the talent, smarts and desire. Isn’t being thrown to the wolves. Being able to watch and learn, improve his technique, and has Harbaugh, the great QB refiner there!

I am a Kaep homer, but I think he will be a hall-of-famer! In a few years. :-)

Who's got it better than Honey Badger? Honey Badger don't give a ....

Kaepernick's raw talent + Harbaugh's coaching = Hall of Fame QB

by ak4niner on Feb 10, 2012 11:34 AM PST up reply actions  

It surprises me how much faith some fans have put in CK

I watched 3 UNR games in his senior year. He came across as a QB who made good decisions and showed good leadership, aside from having a strong arm and good running abilities. But the pistol system did not have him moving around in a pocket making reads in a progression, or taking lots of snaps behind the center. He also reasonably accurate, but nothing exceptional. I don’t recall how accurate he was throwing on the run.

He may well turn out to be a solid NFL starter. No way for me to make an intelligent forecast, even if he plays well in the preseason games.

by Mood_Indigo on Feb 10, 2012 10:06 AM PST up reply actions  

from what I heard

he can place the ball where he wants to close, but still has a problem deep. Which is to be expected if Harbaugh is trying to recreate his throwing motion. Still adjusting to the pro level and his progressions is doing great, but still sub-par. An offseason will do him wonders and I expect him to bulk up a little

by mcwagner on Feb 10, 2012 10:13 AM PST up reply actions  

who knows

they put whatever numbers they want on their sizes. They have them both listed as 6’4 even though Kaep towers over Smith. Eye ball test. Smith seems pretty stout while Kaep looks pretty lean. My eyes tell me Kaep could gain 15lbs and still be slender but able to slip through tackles and take hits better.

by mcwagner on Feb 10, 2012 10:18 AM PST up reply actions  

he doesn't need togain weight.

He might be lanky in the legs but thats where he gets his speed. He has a big upper body, very broad shoulders.

by SanFranciscoKnights on Feb 10, 2012 12:37 PM PST via iPhone app up reply actions  

All sounds good. A QB drafted with Harbaugh’s approval will almost certainly never be a bust. One he has developed I’d expect him to be as competent as Alex in execution.

by Mood_Indigo on Feb 10, 2012 10:27 AM PST up reply actions  

All sounds good. A QB drafted with Harbaugh’s approval will almost certainly never be a bust. One he has developed I’d expect him to be as competent as Alex in execution.

I have Gio Carmazzi on the Bill Walsh Approval Line. He’d like a word.

Once more, coming to you by proxy.

by howtheyscored on Feb 10, 2012 12:25 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

ha ha! but Walsh didn’t have to win with Gio and his Five Goats — Harbaugh has to win with his pick.

by Mood_Indigo on Feb 10, 2012 12:52 PM PST up reply actions  

I can't help think but when isn't that important...

Its more important why he takes over.

Nil Satis Nisi Optimum

by leafeyuk49er on Feb 10, 2012 10:01 AM PST reply actions  

best scenarios

He is better than Alex Smith and its not even close. He takes over and we upgraded the position.
Smith gets injured and Kaepernick fills the position easily and looks to be at least the equal to Smith and only was the backup because of experience.
Meh scenario:
Plays garbage games where we lock up the seed and we are just curious.
Worst scenario:
Smith stinks it up and in an attempt to salvage the season Kaepernick gets the position by default because anyone can be better.

by mcwagner on Feb 10, 2012 10:07 AM PST up reply actions  

your best scenario include Alex getting injured??!!

by Mood_Indigo on Feb 10, 2012 10:28 AM PST up reply actions  

best scenario is he sits for another year or two.

by dallasthedog on Feb 10, 2012 10:34 AM PST up reply actions  

he’s sitting now because he’s not better than alex. if he plays in two years, it’s because he’ll be better than alex then.

i see no reason to not learn from the mistakes this organization made with alex (namely, throwing him to the lions too early). let him mature, learn the pro game, how to read defenses, improve his throwing motion, etc.

tell me, do you REALLY see kap leading those two drives against the saints or making that throw to vd at this point in his development?

by dallasthedog on Feb 10, 2012 11:08 AM PST up reply actions  

I have no idea

I don’t know what he is capable of. You could have asked me the same about Smith last year and the answer would’ve been no. I just don’t think we should hold him back because it was bad for Smith on a much more dysfunctional team. The point is why would Kaepernick get his first start.

by mcwagner on Feb 10, 2012 11:23 AM PST up reply actions  

i see him getting mop up duties, but not starting unless smith gets hurt. he’s just to raw at the moment and we have a more than capable qb now. i don’t see the benefit or logic of starting kap now. if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. we ain’t broke, kap hasn’t shown he’s ready to step up now, and past experience has shown the downfalls of bringing someone in too early.

by dallasthedog on Feb 10, 2012 12:03 PM PST up reply actions  

for football's sake in the ability of the quarterback to come in because the other can't

I never wish harm on any player. In a perfect world they take turns and no one loses their job. Not likely. Injury, unfortunately, is a reality in professional sports. Especially if you take the hits Alex takes.

by mcwagner on Feb 10, 2012 10:37 AM PST up reply actions  

We want Carr!

Irony is Carr got a ring this year! lol

"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin

by HUNGRY HUNTER on Feb 10, 2012 12:54 PM PST up reply actions  

Carr > Brady

I can support this. I have yet to see David Carr cry in public.

by mcwagner on Feb 10, 2012 12:59 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

lol

"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin

by HUNGRY HUNTER on Feb 10, 2012 1:00 PM PST up reply actions  

rec'd

Who's got it better than Honey Badger? Honey Badger don't give a ....

Kaepernick's raw talent + Harbaugh's coaching = Hall of Fame QB

by ak4niner on Feb 10, 2012 1:04 PM PST up reply actions  

He has the perfect mindset

Those are the words that I expect for him to say. But (barring injury) he will be behind AS for another year. If Josh Johnson signs he might be fighting for 2nd string. There will be competition at various positions. Cannot wait till the draft!

If the 49ers success offends you, so be it." Jim Harbaugh quote... Love It!

by chriscream on Feb 10, 2012 10:04 AM PST reply actions  

Here is my mindset (question)....

That throw that Eli Manning made to Mario Manningham,…..who can make that throw on our team, Alex or Colin?

by BigMar on Feb 10, 2012 10:05 AM PST reply actions  

Alex probably could, but he wouldn’t even attempt it. So maybe more trust and timing with receivers can fix that. Colin couldn’t yet because of deep throw accuracy. So maybe more trust and timing with receivers can fix that.

by mcwagner on Feb 10, 2012 10:15 AM PST up reply actions  

I would have more faith in Colin to make that throw over alex.

"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin

by HUNGRY HUNTER on Feb 10, 2012 12:55 PM PST up reply actions  

I can see that too

But I have more faith in Manningham to make that catch over our current #3 (Swain, Ginn?). But that isn’t the topic. At this point in time, I see both QBs throwing it to a safer destination

by mcwagner on Feb 10, 2012 1:03 PM PST up reply actions  

ginn has made that type of catch but he has been out of bounds when he made it! lol

"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin

by HUNGRY HUNTER on Feb 10, 2012 1:04 PM PST up reply actions  

haha

While most get frustrated with the QB position, I get mad at Ginn and Rachal. Guys who have the abilities to get to the next level but fail. If Ginn could concentrate and toughen up and Chilo understand his assignment… my God, I’m getting mad again.

by mcwagner on Feb 10, 2012 1:19 PM PST up reply actions  

lol

I do think ginn did not try that hard before this year; he seemed to never want to get hit.

"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin

by HUNGRY HUNTER on Feb 10, 2012 1:43 PM PST up reply actions  

one of them would throw it 10 yards out of bounds

If he threw it at all. He is more of a short pass expert.

by wtlichens on Feb 10, 2012 10:24 AM PST via mobile up reply actions  

It generally takes a quarterback about 5 years to become polished

Minimum 3 years before they are consistent enough to win games. Sure they can win if the team is good enough and sure they can win a few with their wild throws, but the key to consistency is polish and poise.

I figure if Colin gets three years behind Alex he comes out as a highly tuned and polished machine. He might take a few games to get the final lessons of in game pressures, but after that he should be golden.

I would have him in earlier than 2014 if Alex wasn’t progressing at all. I wouldn’t have Colin in until after 2015 if I saw a little more from Alex this year. That said, I think Alex may take a huge jump next year and we won’t see Colin for quite a while. I feel good that he’s back there waiting for his chance though.

We are lucky to have a talented guy with a year in the system backing up our quarterback next year. The last thing we want is to have our whole season get tanked if one guy goes down. I feel like we don’t have to worry about that next year.

"I feel like I'm the best, but you're not going to get me to say that."
--Jerry Rice

by Pat Willie on Feb 10, 2012 10:16 AM PST reply actions  

Aaron Rodgers on the benefit of sitting behind starter

here
“Rodgers said he’s impressed by what those guys have done, but that sitting for three years behind Brett Favre was fantastic for him.
"It allowed me to get my body in the kind of shape I wanted to get in. But more importantly to become an expert in our offense and to study defenses. If you talk to those guys you mentioned playing right now in a couple years, they’ll probably say, ‘Man, I didn’t really know anything or know what I was doing as a rookie.’ Because the game just really starts to open up to you after a couple offseasons. You do a lot of self-scout study and you study defense and then you can really I think become a very quick reactor. Those guys getting the experience early, they’ll be able to see a lot of looks. You really start to get that comfort level the more looks you see and the more time you study in the offseason." "

by Mood_Indigo on Feb 10, 2012 10:31 AM PST up reply actions  

imagine if Favre actually took him under his wing like he did to previous backups

of course, it could back-fire because Rodgers used that diss from #4 to push him harder. Favre ignoring him may have been the reason he turned out so well.

by mcwagner on Feb 10, 2012 10:41 AM PST up reply actions  

i think alex is going to have a monster year next year.

by dallasthedog on Feb 10, 2012 11:10 AM PST up reply actions  

I sure hope that if he is starting next year that history does not repeat itself

"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin

by HUNGRY HUNTER on Feb 10, 2012 12:56 PM PST up reply actions  

That may be worth taking with a grain of salt. Aaron Rodgers came out of his situation in great shape, so it’s perfectly natural for his sense of history to approve of that situation. It’s also just healthier psychologically to go, “Yeah, that helped me succeed” than to sit around fuming for the rest of his life over the years that he lost on the bench.

We construct most of our best narratives after the fact. I’m sure if you asked Peyton Manning a similar question, he’d say something like “Yeah, starting in the league right away was the best thing that ever happened for me. It gave me a chance to really see what NFL defenses were bringing, and to get a great look at actual film of how I was dealing with it. Without having that film and experience to reflect on so early in my career, I may never have developed into the quarterback I did.”

People are naturally inclined to like what worked for them, and when things work, we’re naturally inclined to sort of spackle over the cracks in that same history.

Once more, coming to you by proxy.

by howtheyscored on Feb 10, 2012 12:31 PM PST up reply actions  

And if Alex goes on to do really well, he’ll probably say something like “You know, obviously it wasn’t an ideal situation. But I think that after everything I actually came out a better, stronger player. Sometimes you have to deal with some adversity to really make the most of yourself. That’s what happened to me. Was it easy? Not always. Was it for the best? I think so, probably.”

Once more, coming to you by proxy.

by howtheyscored on Feb 10, 2012 12:34 PM PST up reply actions  

you forgot

“No question”

I am not an Alex hater, I'm an Alex apologist hater. Now you know. -Mr Moses

by rlott#42 on Feb 10, 2012 12:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Aaron didn’t have to start right away, just like Colin doesn’t have to. Peyton is obviously a different breed, but he wasn’t very good his first year. He didn’t really stop throwing interceptions and start winning playoff games until his sixth year and after his seventh year, he became the benchmark for all NFL quarterbacks.

Alex is entering his seventh year isn’t he? I mean not counting the year he was injured this should be 7 I think. Maybe it’s time for him to peak. Peyton’s 7th, 8th, and 9th years at ages 28, 29, and 30, he was playing better than any other time in his career. Alex probably won’t be throwing 49 TD’s 10 INT’s for a 121.1 passer rating, but maybe he’ll do his version of that. That would give Colin plenty of time to learn the game on the sidelines.

"I feel like I'm the best, but you're not going to get me to say that."
--Jerry Rice

by Pat Willie on Feb 10, 2012 4:34 PM PST up reply actions  

I’ve made the case before that Alex is probably entering a three-to-five year peak window and could be a very nice player during that period. I’d hoped his 2011 would be a better indicator of how high that peak might go.

Once more, coming to you by proxy.

by howtheyscored on Feb 10, 2012 4:40 PM PST up reply actions  

Maybe not Joe to Steve: maybe Kerry to Vince

The Titans went 13-3 in ‘08 before going winless their first 8 in ’09 (IIRC). Fisher finally caved and put Vince Young in and the Titans nearly made the playoffs.
I’ll be interested to see when or how long it takes for the coaching staff to looks to Kaep—whether it’ll take a Kerry Collins-in-‘09 run of QB futility for them to put Kaep in.
I obvious have more confidence in Alex and the coaching staff not allowing the team to fall apart on either side of the ball (as that Titans team had serious issues on defense too). So the analogy isn’t perfect, but it is thought-provoking.

We still have Harbaugh. So there's hope.

by grantmp on Feb 10, 2012 10:20 AM PST via mobile reply actions  

Well, there was somewhat of a theme to Alex weakness...

even in some post game wins, Coach and Alex both talked ALOT about the plays that WERE there but not made.

I do recall several games were TE or WR’s were open for the Big Play but Alex either did not see it or he missed them with a pass.

It did get a bit better the last montho of the season…..but then again I recall in the NFC Championship game Kyle Williams streaking down the middle of the field for a game changing TD and…..Alex overthrow him.

by BigMar on Feb 10, 2012 10:34 AM PST up reply actions  

As long as Smith is healthy

I dont ever want to see Kaep. He could end up being a great QB. But I dont think we have begun to see the best of Alex. Im excited to see his improvment over the next 2 years under Harbaugh. But its clear Alex has earned the right to continue here and I have a hard time seeing him losing that job based on preformance. Hes such a smart QB. Doesnt make mistakes. I could see Alex breaking some sort of record for least amount of INTs in a five year span or something like that. I love Alexs improvement and want to see him for a long time

by Collin B on Feb 10, 2012 10:31 AM PST reply actions  

Rivers,Rodgers and steve young

All had to wait and all have become great QBs i think brady and romo also sat for a while so i dont mind keap sitting at least two more seasons

by Moflush on Feb 10, 2012 10:38 AM PST via mobile reply actions  

Montana, Favre, Brees, Warner

But then you have Marino, Elway, Peyton, Fouts that started right away

by mcwagner on Feb 10, 2012 10:48 AM PST up reply actions  

With Peyton, the Colts had no choice

However, Marino (David Woodley), Elway (Steve DeBerg) and Fouts (Johnny Unitas – yes, you read that right) all were slated as backups right away, only to take over when the starters floundered.

by NinerEd on Feb 10, 2012 4:16 PM PST up reply actions  

If Alex makes another huge leap in progression,

the point may become moot.

Let’s say Alex flatlines…I assume Kaepernick will make a big push in 2013.

The Dude: Oh boy. How ya gonna keep 'em down on the farm once they've seen Karl Hungus.

by slapsy on Feb 10, 2012 10:38 AM PST reply actions  

Alex's arm pales in comparison to Kaep's though.

Kaepernick has a longer delivery, which is a drawback. But he throws nicer spirals and can simply put more velocity on the ball. Alex’s arm is more than adequate, but certain throws require more space and setup time for Alex than they do for someone with Kaepernick’s arm strength..

We still have Harbaugh. So there's hope.

by grantmp on Feb 10, 2012 10:56 AM PST via mobile up reply actions  

Jeff George had a stronger arm than either.

by Mood_Indigo on Feb 10, 2012 12:54 PM PST up reply actions  

Two words for you .... Kyle Boller ...!!

I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!

by Edggy on Feb 10, 2012 1:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Two more Jamarcus Russell ...!!

I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!

by Edggy on Feb 10, 2012 1:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Did someone mention pie?

Who's got it better than Honey Badger? Honey Badger don't give a ....

Kaepernick's raw talent + Harbaugh's coaching = Hall of Fame QB

by ak4niner on Feb 10, 2012 1:05 PM PST up reply actions  

CK

He threw a pass through the uprights from the 40 yd line
Thats 70 yds!
I dont Alex has that in him…

by sundaysfinest on Feb 10, 2012 11:43 AM PST via iPhone app up reply actions  

but

the uprights dropped it.

[Poorly Wrought THING] is what Brian Sabean would have made if he were a [THING-maker] instead of a MLB GM

by zenbitz on Feb 10, 2012 4:20 PM PST up reply actions  

This is good...

We should all want Kaep to want to be the starter. If he didn’t, there’d be something seriously wrong with him.

That being said, another year of seasoning isn’t a terrible idea. Let him backup. Get him into a few more games late in decided games. Get him some real NFL experience. If we lock up our playoff seed early, let him start in week 16 or so. And if he impresses, and continues to improve, then we go from there.

Honestly, him having to wait another two or three seasons to become the starter wouldn’t be the end of the world either.

"If you can accept losing, you can't win." ~Vince Lombardi
Member of FearTheFin's Mod Squad and The Knights Who Say NI-emi...
Tweet Tweet.

by ZeroIndulgence on Feb 10, 2012 10:58 AM PST reply actions  

The only way I see Kaep starting in next 2-3 seasons...

The only way I see Kaep starting in next 2-3 seasons is if Alex gets hurt. Of which there is a pretty strong likelihood if the line’s pass protection doesn’t improve. In 2011, the Niners were extremely fortunate that Alex stayed healthy. It is a testament to his toughness and desire to lead this team.

The O-Line needs to get better. If they do, I see Alex as the franchise QB for at least the next 3 years.

Otherwise, who knows? Kaep may be starting as early as mid-season.

by smathis on Feb 10, 2012 11:09 AM PST reply actions  

agreed

no “non injury” scenarios seem particularly likely. I suppose if Smith flames out in 2012 or 2013, then he could get cut for CK. On the other hand, Smith could get cut and the team could go with a 3rd QB by then (not on the roster at all, pehaps).

If Smith gets hurt in the next couple years and CK gets significant playing time and does “decent” then it’s probably no more than a 50-50 than they go with CK over Smith.

[Poorly Wrought THING] is what Brian Sabean would have made if he were a [THING-maker] instead of a MLB GM

by zenbitz on Feb 10, 2012 11:26 AM PST up reply actions  

Love Alex but hope that ck out performs smith in training camp and starts week 1.

by mrb24 on Feb 10, 2012 11:10 AM PST via mobile reply actions   2 recs

At worst CK drives Alex to play even better

Win-win for all!

Who's got it better than Honey Badger? Honey Badger don't give a ....

Kaepernick's raw talent + Harbaugh's coaching = Hall of Fame QB

by ak4niner on Feb 10, 2012 11:28 AM PST up reply actions  

rec for you sir

"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin

by HUNGRY HUNTER on Feb 10, 2012 12:57 PM PST up reply actions  

IDK when he'll start....

but when he does, he’ll be the most tattooed of any NFL QB….and for that alone, he’s a badass.

and as for football. my hope is that alex does take a step back this year, and that he does so because he’s trying to make elite QB throws. It’s gonna suck, but in order for Alex Smith to become a better QB, he needs to attempt passes that have less than 100% odds of landing safely.

as a 2nd yr player, Colin doesn’t have to play it safe. he knows that he has a good arm, and will have to use it to grab the starting nod. he’ll throw some picks, but he’ll also challenge the defense in a way the Niners aren’t currently.

by t p on Feb 10, 2012 11:26 AM PST reply actions  

Kaepernick is our future.

Alex is our now. I don’t see him starting next year unless Alex is hurt, but maybe the year after that. He needs some refining, but the talent and the drive is there.

Who's got it better than Honey Badger? Honey Badger don't give a ....

Kaepernick's raw talent + Harbaugh's coaching = Hall of Fame QB

by ak4niner on Feb 10, 2012 11:27 AM PST reply actions  

When we sign Peyton to mentor him he will start next season

"And thank you to God for making me an Atheist." - Ricky Gervais

by MichaelClutchtree on Feb 10, 2012 11:32 AM PST reply actions  

lol

I am not an Alex hater, I'm an Alex apologist hater. Now you know. -Mr Moses

by rlott#42 on Feb 10, 2012 11:51 AM PST up reply actions  

ha ha

"I feel like I'm the best, but you're not going to get me to say that."
--Jerry Rice

by Pat Willie on Feb 10, 2012 4:54 PM PST up reply actions  

How can Alex possibly "struggle mightily in training camp"...

He knows the playbook way better than Kaep, he’s a seasoned vet and showed lots of confidence as the season progressed. He’s not gonna lose his spot, no matter what Kaep will show in the camp.

by RomeNiner on Feb 10, 2012 11:43 AM PST reply actions  

What proves that Alex knows ghe playbook better?

He knows the NFL better, snaps, throws, and taking hits aren’t new to him yeah, but they both should know the playbook equally by now.

I am not an Alex hater, I'm an Alex apologist hater. Now you know. -Mr Moses

by rlott#42 on Feb 10, 2012 11:50 AM PST up reply actions  

anything is possible

I don’t expect him to struggle in camp, but stranger things have happened.

by David Fucillo on Feb 10, 2012 2:09 PM PST up reply actions  

Bring him on slowly if possible

I say let him learn the system and come in to play when games are in hand. If Alex gets hurt then he will need to be ready to play.

by Brian R59 on Feb 10, 2012 12:14 PM PST reply actions  

If he was even close too ready , AleX's name woouldn't even be mentioned , they'll resign AleX for atleast three more years , so I voted 2015 & beyond ...!!

I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!

by Edggy on Feb 10, 2012 12:24 PM PST reply actions  

Alex's contract means nothing if Kapernick ever appeared to be the best option.

I am not an Alex hater, I'm an Alex apologist hater. Now you know. -Mr Moses

by rlott#42 on Feb 10, 2012 12:29 PM PST up reply actions  

So true...

Harbaugh has a job to do and he seems unlikely to let his personal feelings towards Alex get in the way if he has a better QB on the bench. Even if they believed Kaepernick would be ready to start this year, they would still offer Alex a contract.

by 9thevolution on Feb 10, 2012 12:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Really they have some 19 UDFA , 7 million a year on a Qb , that's not going to be your starter might be money better used elsewhere ...!!

I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!

by Edggy on Feb 10, 2012 12:44 PM PST up reply actions  

Its obvious hes not better than Smith now, and Smiths contract will come before camp.

Sooooooo, they’re signing of Smith is because of now. If and its a big if, Colin comes into camp performing better in practices and drills, I still doubt they’d start Colin. That would give them time to allow Colin to perfect whatever he’s doing. That is worth the money, because Colin can come in even better, whether another year or midseason.

I am not an Alex hater, I'm an Alex apologist hater. Now you know. -Mr Moses

by rlott#42 on Feb 10, 2012 12:51 PM PST up reply actions  

This conversation will be better suited during camp I sappose , not going too get into a great big O dialogue at this point in time ...!!

I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!

by Edggy on Feb 10, 2012 12:58 PM PST up reply actions  

So , if they sign him for Three years 24 Million , they think what ...!!

I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!

by Edggy on Feb 10, 2012 12:39 PM PST up reply actions  

Oh ok , thanks that really is telling ...!!

I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!

by Edggy on Feb 10, 2012 12:41 PM PST up reply actions  

I would say it depends on how easy the team can get out of the deal.

I am not an Alex hater, I'm an Alex apologist hater. Now you know. -Mr Moses

by rlott#42 on Feb 10, 2012 12:44 PM PST up reply actions  

I was personally in the Andy Dalton camp last year...

That’s not to say I don’t think Keapernick can be a good QB in the NFL. I think he has the physical tools to succeed in this league, and for those who say he came from a gimmick offense and can’t work in the NFL, two words: Cam Newton. Sure his team wasn’t winning tons of games, but he sure as hell put up impressive stats; even if he was only making one read per play.

CK will sit on the bench and learn, and in another year or two, we will find out if he is capable of leading this team. Only realistic way he isn’t given a legit chance to compete for the starting job is if Alex leads the team to a SB win, or if Alex starts putting up gaudy numbers while keeping turnovers down and it’s the defense that starts letting us down in the playoffs.

by 9thevolution on Feb 10, 2012 12:35 PM PST reply actions  

So would Andy Dalton have beaten out Alex as the starter or....

at least by mid-season been our starter?

Clearly Andy was more polished….but frankly I think Kaepernick may prove in the long run to be the better overall Q.B.

by BigMar on Feb 10, 2012 12:45 PM PST up reply actions  

they may both be great qbs in the long run.

"You know whats funny? I always thought uhm dogs lay eggs and I learned something new today" Peter Griffin

by HUNGRY HUNTER on Feb 10, 2012 1:00 PM PST up reply actions  

so

@ least 1 more year of Kaep pacing the sidelines?? I’ll buy that…

by Doni S on Feb 10, 2012 1:51 PM PST via mobile up reply actions  

This might be a dumb question but...

Who is Colin Kaepernick?

49ers 2012 Offseason: HELP WANTED at WR, DBs, & O-Line

by Giants49war on Feb 10, 2012 1:48 PM PST reply actions  

Very nice. You sir are in the Zone…

"I feel like I'm the best, but you're not going to get me to say that."
--Jerry Rice

by Pat Willie on Feb 10, 2012 4:57 PM PST up reply actions  

rec'd

Who's got it better than Honey Badger? Honey Badger don't give a ....

Kaepernick's raw talent + Harbaugh's coaching = Hall of Fame QB

by ak4niner on Feb 10, 2012 5:01 PM PST up reply actions  

LOL

49ers 2012 Offseason: HELP WANTED at WR, DBs, & O-Line

by Giants49war on Feb 10, 2012 6:26 PM PST up reply actions  

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