Golden Nuggets: Carlos Rogers Infinitely More Important Than Dashon Goldson
by James Brady on Feb 10, 2012 2:00 AM PST
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Good morning, folks. Thanks to Fooch for getting the Nuggets for me yesterday. I was extremely disappointed in Ray McDonald when I saw the headlines and I wasn't planning on mentioning him at all, really. I tend to not want to write about a guy when he's making stupid mistakes, but it looks like most of what's going down recently is a misunderstanding. What they've got, it seems, is a failure to communicate. Anyway, of particular note with the 49ers is the talk of big-name free agents, and now a couple different people suggesting that Carlos Rogers might be hard to retain and, more than that, the 49ers might be more concerned with Dashon Goldson. That sucks. That sucks really bad. Onto the quick links.
How to spend the Niners $33.8 million in cap space (PressDemocrat.com)
Colin Kaepernick starts over Alex Smith in 2012: How realistic is that? (Examiner.com)
Another defender in trouble with law (SFGate.com)
49ers will bring Carlos Rogers back ... or will they (BayAreaSportsGuy.com)
49ers review: Quarterbacks (CSNBayArea.com)
Big changes at 4949 Centennial Boulevard (SacBee.com)
Free agent S Dashon Goldson says he'd be shocked if he doesn't return to 49ers (Examiner.com)
Why Eddie DeBartolo Jr. didn't get voted into the Hall of Fame (PressDemocrat.com)
Special Teams Year in Review (49ers.com)
Being a Sheep
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Finally someone makes some sense
Of course Carlos is more important than Goldson. Rogers was playing really well this year while Dashon was his usualy gambling self, getting some highlight plays but playing out of position more often than not.
I hope this is just a rumor and the Niners come to their senses.
Dang , this could be no further from the truth ...
… but playing out of position more often than not…!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!
I want them both back... splitting hairs here.
But age is a factor for sure
by Sigelvictory on Feb 10, 2012 6:20 PM PST up reply actions
Goldson is only important if no other fs is available via FA.
I am not an Alex hater, I'm an Alex apologist hater. Now you know. -Mr Moses
I hope the Niners don't go cheap at CB and WR.
We need to pay players at those positions. Period.
"Bears are crazy, Willie. They'll bite your head off if you're wearing steak on it."
Does anyone know when the One year anniversary of the Harbaugh hiring is or was ..!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!
Dang , why didn't we have a parade ...!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!
saving up for the big parade next year!
"Cruelty, It’s not giving another person what they want. That’s our mindset on defense, to go out and play with everything we have and not give the other team anything." -Patrick Willis
Different Point of View
While I would love to have both back, I think that Goldson is more important to the team than Carlos. Goldson had as many picks in less games than Carlos. He’s also a better tackler and harder hitter. When Dashon Goldson is on, he’s a gamechanger. He’s also younger than Carlos, and we drafted him so he’s one of us. If you want to see how much of an impact he has on the safety position, go look back at the first two games where he didn’t start and see poor secondary play.
I do agree that Goldson gambles at times, but so does Carlos. Carlos basically said in the first Giants game that on one of his picks he kinda guessed which way Cruz was gonna cut and jumped the route. They both were pro bowl players this year and were both deserving of that distinction. Both players gave up plays at times this season, but what do you expect when these teams throw 50+ times a game on them. Let’s face it, teams know they can’t run on the Niners, so they air it out.
Both players were part of arguably the best defense in the league this season and we should be ecstatic if both return. I just think with the lack of options behind him, relative youth and impact Goldson is more important.
Goldson intercepted passes from a few less than average passers. He did intercept Brees, but no other QB worth mentioning. Not sire a rookie couldn’t repeat that performance. I also think Goldson is going to over value himself.
I am not an Alex hater, I'm an Alex apologist hater. Now you know. -Mr Moses
I disagree that he's a better tackler. Without Carlos, our corners are Tarell Brown and Chris Culliver.
Carlos played like a top three corner this past season, coverage wise.
And then God created Saturn ... and he liked it, so he put a ring on it. ... Always a ninja
Out of Treble | Twitter
I don’t see how there can even be any discussion on who should return and who we can afford to let go in regards to CR and DG. I think it would be foolish of the Niners organization if they do not do everything within their power to retain both these probowl caliber players.How many teams can boast about having two probowl players in their secondary and when was the last time we had one let alone two probowl defensive backs in the same season? Common sense tells us not to fix something that’s not broken, our defense was, imho, the strength of the entire team and one of the best if not the best in the league and to take it apart would be a costly mistake.
Better tackler? No
Bigger tackler? Yes.
There is a significant difference. The type of tackles Dashon makes causes him to whiff often enough and injure his own guys way too often.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Feb 10, 2012 9:28 PM PST up reply actions
smh
The type of tackles Dashon makes causes him to whiff often enough and injure his own guys way too often.
Infintely more important?!
I gotta respectfully disagree. Yes, Rogers had the better year. Statistically speaking, he was one of the top 2 or 3 CBs in football. But Goldson was a top-10 safety, which is the more important and difficult position to fill.
Safety is not more important than corner. We have nobody else. That's not an exaggeration.
And then God created Saturn ... and he liked it, so he put a ring on it. ... Always a ninja
Out of Treble | Twitter
Sorry, I said that poorly
I meant that, in general, safety is the more important and harder position to fill. A team with a good pass rush can do just fine with replacement-level corners.I think a lot of Rogers’s success this year was because of pressure on the QB. I expect him to regress next year if he goes to a team that’s less effective in that regard.
I've never heard that. I've never heard anybody say that .. who are these replacement-level corners? Got any names?
And then God created Saturn ... and he liked it, so he put a ring on it. ... Always a ninja
Out of Treble | Twitter
by James Brady on Feb 10, 2012 10:10 AM PST up reply actions
2006 Colts
I forget their names, but the Colts lost their starting corners to injury and won the Super Bowl. More generally, the rule changes and shift to more zone coverage has diminished the CBs role in the defense. Simultaneously, we’ve seen the rise of dominant Safeties like Reed and Polamalu as they play more of a role on defense.
That suddenly means that corners are easily found, despite the fact that the 49ers have had abysmal corners for years, and also that safeties are more important?
And then God created Saturn ... and he liked it, so he put a ring on it. ... Always a ninja
Out of Treble | Twitter
by James Brady on Feb 10, 2012 11:43 AM PST up reply actions
No pass rush...
…is why our corners sucked. The combo of the Smiths changed that, with a corresponding increase in CB play. Carlos Rogers never put up numbers in DC like he did here. That’s not a coincidence.
Again, I think logic tells you a Safety has a bigger impact on today’s game than any one CB. But it’s just my opinion. If you disagree, I’m curious why.
Oh come on, that's such a copout. We have a pass rush so we don't need corners.
The fact is, Rogers had a change of scenery for the first time in his career and played well. This isn’t me saying “THEY CAUGHT LESS BALLS!” this is me watching Carlos effectively cover a receiver. How can you say the pass rush is the whole reason when we’ve sat and watched him cover exceptional receivers? It’s not so open and shut. It’s absolute fact that Rogers played well here in coverage, pass rush notwithstanding. If we didn’t have the pass rush, Rogers still would have played just as well against his individual guys, quarterbacks would have just had more time to try and beat him. He didn’t cover this well in Washington. This is isolated coverage without taking the pass rush into account.
Plus, Rogers got better in many areas. He actually caught footballs instead of dropping them. He was literally hated in Washington because he dropped picks constantly. That’s improvement that has nothing to do with the pass rush. So your “that’s not a coincidence” thing is silly – because of course it isn’t. He’s just better now than he was before. He needed a change of scenery.
Whereas Goldson is not great in coverage, and will suffer even more with one less great CB on this team (bringing the total of great CBs on this team to zero) and we’ll have Tarell Brown, Chris Culliver and Tramaine Brock trying to stop Larry Fitzgerald, Sidney Rice and that Baldwin fellow.
And then God created Saturn ... and he liked it, so he put a ring on it. ... Always a ninja
Out of Treble | Twitter
Dude, chill
I’m not copping out and I never said your argument was “THEY CAUGHT LESS BALLS.” Sometimes, things that are clear to you aren’t to others. As I said, I respect your opinion and just want to find out where you’re coming from.
Anyway, I disagree it’s a “fact” that Carlos Rogers has improved at catching balls in the sense he will have more INTs going forward. I don’t understand how a “change of scenery” would suddenly cause him to improve his hands at the age of 31. And I seem to recall someone (Harbaugh?) saying he still drops balls in practice, though my memory may be playing tricks on me.
Aside from the INTs, you make some interesting points about ways Rogers has improved that can’t be explained by a better pass rush. Besides your own personal observation, though, do you have some supporting evidence he improved in those areas? Again, not saying you’re wrong, just curious to learn where you’re coming from.
You are devaluing what most consider one of the most important positions in football where the best players at it have always been at an absolute premium.
Amazing corners are in the same vein as franchise quarterbacks and always have been. It’s ludicrous to say that safeties are more important when there’s really only two examples of top-flight safeties being huge game changers over the last decade on a consistent basis. Sure you can throw names out there like Dawkins and Atogwe, etc, but Goldson isn’t on that level. Maybe Atogwe now, but can’t touch any of those guys.
What supporting evidence do you want? The fact that he did, in fact, cover well? I mean, do you want me to just link you to 49ers game footage? Or the fact that he’s got all those picks? How about the 22 passes defensed? Maybe my opinion isn’t good enough, and you can read the opinion of others. Maiocco said he turned in the best season of his career, referencing only one bad game while covering the tough slot receivers in New York. I recall just that one bad game from him.
And then God created Saturn ... and he liked it, so he put a ring on it. ... Always a ninja
Out of Treble | Twitter
"Amazing corners are in the same vein as franchise quarterbacks and always have been."
You’ve said some ridiculous things over the years, but that’s among the most absurd.
And yet you're the only person disagreeing with it.
Weak corners are the number one reason why teams end up with bad defenses. There’s exceptions to that rule, but it’s generally the case. You can argue instead of calling it ridiculous and absurd. I understand you may be upset because I said your previous statement was a copout, but I apologize for that and you need to stop being so touchy. Let’s talk, not having a pissing contest.
And then God created Saturn ... and he liked it, so he put a ring on it. ... Always a ninja
Out of Treble | Twitter
Thanks for the apology
Yeah, I was annoyed you accused me of copping out. I admit I’m being touchy, but you get so hostile sometimes when I disagree with you. Makes it hard to have a friendly conversation, which was all I wanted.
Anyway, my argument is that CBs are overrated in today’s NFL where teams play a lot of zone and CB’s guard guys man to man less often than they did previously. Also, the rules against contact downfield mean it’s a lot harder to be a dominant coverage guy like the shutdown CBs of years past.
Simultaneously, you’ve seen a new breed of player emerge at safety. You see guys the size of LBs with the speed of CBs. They cover the whole field and makes lots of plays. You have to account for them on every snap. The days of teams’ being able to move an aging CB to Safety are ending.
As for the QB, it seems self-evidently obvious to me he’s the single most important player on your team. He touches the ball on every offensive snap. I just don’t see how a CB, who might go an entire game without a single pass defended, could share equal responsibility for the team’s success.
Just my opinion, though, and I realize it’s a little out there, at least where safeties are concerned.
Win Probability
You can actually quantify how much each player contributed to his team’s overall Win Probability.
The top CB by that metric was Keenan Lewis, who added 1.99 WP to the Steelers. He was followed by Darrelle Revis, who added 1.84 WP, and Carlos Rogers, who, added1.71.
The top QB by that metric was Tom Brady, who added 7.56 WP. In other words the total WP added by the top three CBs was still less than the WP added by Brady alone.
Look at the contracts for top corners.
See how many are paid like QBs
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Feb 10, 2012 9:31 PM PST up reply actions
I'm not denying that
My argument is CBs are overpaid for the reasons I mentioned above. There was a time when that pay was justified, but the game has evolved such that there’s a disconnect between salaries and actual value.
Ultimately, there’s a simple acid test. Would you rather have Aaron Rodgers or Darrelle Revis? Troy Polamalu or Nnamdi Asomugha. To my mind at least, the answer is clear. I would take the best QBs or Safeties over the best CBs because the former positions have a greater impact on the game.
The stats, huh ... Hm.
And then God created Saturn ... and he liked it, so he put a ring on it. ... Always a ninja
Out of Treble | Twitter
Still waiting for the explanation...
…for how a “change in scenery” magically enhances one’s manual dexterity, lol.
People get a change of scenery and improve all the time. That's why the statement exists. Rogers came here, played better.
And then God created Saturn ... and he liked it, so he put a ring on it. ... Always a ninja
Out of Treble | Twitter
That's true...
…but it’s also a cliche that gets overused. Sometimes it’s accurate and sometimes it isn’t. I have an easier time believing a guy whose problem was motivation turning things around with a change of scenery.
But I have a harder time believing someone’s hands would become better for that reason. That said, Lasik surgery might be something that would make a big difference.
The reason it’s a cliche is because it’s usually used on problem players, or players who have already had the chance more than watch. Rogers had no off-the-field problems and spent his whole career in Washington. He’s where the phrase comes from.
And then God created Saturn ... and he liked it, so he put a ring on it. ... Always a ninja
Out of Treble | Twitter
Rogers had Lasik surgery when he got here.
by mikeinsp on Feb 10, 2012 8:48 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Therefore, a change in scenery resulted in eye surgery
Which resulted in better eyesight
Which resulted in less dropped interceptions
So yes, a change of scenery did enhance his dexterity.
Here's the quote...
…and it’s not as bad as I remembered, but still far from a glowing endorsement of Rogers’s hands:
-Q: Have you seen any evidence Carlos Rogers has bad hands?
-HARBAUGH: I’ve seen some evidence. And I’ve seen some evidence to the contrary of that. Carlos keeps fighting. Got another big interception in this game. Guys are doing what they have to when they have to do it.
That’s pretty equivocal, especially for Harbaugh. If someone asked him “Have you seen any evidence Alex Smith has a weak arm?” I can’t imagine his saying “I’ve seen some evidence.”
He dropped balls in Washington. He hasn't done it here. He's got better.
And then God created Saturn ... and he liked it, so he put a ring on it. ... Always a ninja
Out of Treble | Twitter
I know what was on tape. But since we’ve dropped down to “lolz” instead of showing me how less dropped balls doesn’t mean improvement, this conversation is over.
And then God created Saturn ... and he liked it, so he put a ring on it. ... Always a ninja
Out of Treble | Twitter
A Silly Idea:
Remember the old story about dividing an inheritance (or anything). Let one person divide the items into "a fair split," then let the other choose which portion he will take. It tends to make people be very fair.
Suggestion for the Niners: This is not the same as above, but similar, and is obviously not a serious suggestion, just an exercise in fair thinking that might be both fun and revealing.
Ask every FA with their agents help to make a list showing what contract that they would offer to all FAs to "fairly" divide the money available among themselves.
That should open their eyes a bit and perhaps make them think in terms of "the team."
Once again this is not a serious suggestion but it would be a good idea if all of the FAs took time to consider what is fair to "all of us." And what is best for the team. If they want to get to the SB they have to put the team first.
The question isn't whether or not we should want Carlos back (of course we should) ... rather, it's on what terms
IMO the annual salary isn’t really that important either. THE ISSUE, from the Niners’ perspective, is length of contract. Carlos, at age 31, wants a four- or five-year contract; if I’m in Baalke’s seat I simply don’t do that deal … signing a 31-year-old guy (other than a franchise QB) to a five-year deal makes no sense … we should have learned that lesson with the Nate Clements contract! If Carlos is willing to sign for 3 years and $21 million or less, great, sign him. If he won’t, let him walk.
But if he walks, what do we do then? Not really that difficult …
1. Replace Rogers with free agent Tracy Porter (New Orleans) with a 4-year, $15-17-million contract … he’s developing very rapidly and is only 25 years old.
2. Draft CB Trumaine Johnson (Montana) in the second round in April.
by 49erFanSince1950 on Feb 10, 2012 11:30 AM PST reply actions
contract length isn't important
it’s the guaranteed money.
In most cases giving a player 5/35 is better for the team than 3/21 if the signing bonus is the same. They way contracts are typically structured players cut after 3 years of a 5/35 receive less than the would with a 3/21 (if the signing bonuses are equal).
His name is Ydwin, your argument is invalid.
by microwave donut on Feb 10, 2012 1:15 PM PST up reply actions
exactly...
this isn’t baseball… and Carlos isn’t Aaron Rowand.
by Sigelvictory on Feb 10, 2012 6:29 PM PST up reply actions
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