Why Alex Smith is "Harbaugh's Guy" (and Kaepernick gets the clipboard again in 2012)
As a followup to my post of a few days ago entitled "I'll Take Two Of Whatever Kaepernick Is On" (which was popular with readers, but contained some language that was not appreciated by management), I'd like to elaborate on why I think Harbaugh is so loyal to Alex Smith, and why Kaepernick won't get a shot at the starting job unless Smith goes down.
Way back when the 49ers were perennial Super Bowl contenders, the internet was a dubious hair product sold on late night infomercials, and the words "Vanilla Ice" could be said in public without inducing hysterical laughter (although not in my house), Jim Harbaugh used to be a starting quarterback in the NFL.
Like Smith, Harbaugh was highly touted coming out of college, and was drafted with the 26th overall pick in the 1987 Draft by the Chicago Bears. And like Smith, Harbaugh struggled early in his career, posting his highest QB rating with Chicago (81.9) in 1990, his only year with the Bears in which he threw significantly more touchdowns than interceptions (10-6).
Harbaugh was benched repeatedly during his stay in Chicago, and famously (like Smith) was involved in a televised sideline altercation with his coach. (Interestingly, Mike Ditka, the coach with whom Harbaugh had the altercation in 1992, was one of Harbaugh's strongest endorsers last year when the 49ers signed him to fill their head coaching vacancy.) Harbaugh's years in Chicago were trying, as, in addition to his turbulent relationship with Ditka, he also endured constant criticism from the fans and the media (sound familiar?)
Harbaugh joined the Indianapolis Colts in 1994 as a backup, and quickly became the starter. With the Colts, in a new offense and under the guidance of head coach Ted Marchibroda, Harbaugh completely revitalized his career. He led Indianapolis, prevously a laughingstock, to the playoffs in 1995, and came within a dropped pass of facing the Evil Empire, uh, I mean Dallas Cowboys, in Super Bowl XXX. In that year Harbaugh was selected to the Pro Bowl for the first time, and was runner up for the NFL MVP award. Harbaugh's TD-interception ratio that season, like Smith's in 2011, was 17-5.
The reason Harbaugh is so supportive of Smith is because, in addition to Smith's indisputable toughness and his willingness to buy in completely to what Harbaugh is selling, Harbaugh doesn't see a first round bust, or a quarterback who has been beaten down by injuries, repeated coaching changes and criticism when he looks at Smith. When Harbaugh looks at Smith, what he sees is... Jim Harbaugh.
A comment by fellow early riser mrg80, below, made me think to add this paragraph to the post. It seems like a lot of fans, myself included, feel like Smith much of the time doesn't have the intense, win-at-all-costs attitude we'd like to see. It may be that the nonchalant, low-key demeanor that makes Smith so likable in his interactions with the media make it seem as if he does not have that competitiveness and pure will to win for which Harbaugh has been so renowned, both as a coach and as a player. If anything, this is what Harbaugh's role must be this season: to make sure that he instills as much of that as he can in Smith. We all saw Harbaugh talking intensely to Smith on the sideline before the Giants game in January, while staring him down and pounding on his shoulder pads - trying to hype him up. I believe more of that is exactly what Smith needs to become the player we all hope he can be.
While the comparisons between Smith and Harbaugh are numerous, the statistical similarities are striking. Below is a statistical comparison, showing the many parallels between the two quarterbacks through the first seven years of their NFL careers. Harbaugh's stats are extended through year eight to show his improvement in his second year in Marchibroda's offense, and his first year in Chicago is not included as he was only active for six games that season and was never the starter. At the bottom, I have included Smith's college stats because of something Urban Meyer, Smith's coach at Utah, said about him a few hours after the 49ers drafted him in 2005: "he is a guy that, until he understands it, he is nonfunctional."
If that's the case, what can we expect out of Smith this year, after a full season in Harbaugh's offense and the probable additions of some new wide receivers? Is Harbaugh wrong to put his faith in Smith? Take the poll to weigh in on what you think the 49ers should do at the quarterback position in 2012.
Harbaugh
|
Year |
Comp |
Att |
Pct |
Yards |
TD |
INT |
Rating |
|
1988 |
47 |
97 |
48.5 |
514 |
0 |
2 |
55.9 |
|
1989 |
111 |
178 |
62.4 |
1204 |
5 |
9 |
70.5 |
|
1990 |
180 |
312 |
57.7 |
2178 |
10 |
6 |
81.9 |
|
1991 |
275 |
478 |
57.5 |
3121 |
15 |
16 |
73.7 |
|
1992 |
202 |
358 |
56.4 |
2486 |
13 |
12 |
76.2 |
|
1993 |
200 |
325 |
61.5 |
2002 |
7 |
11 |
72.1 |
|
1994* |
125 |
202 |
61.9 |
1440 |
9 |
6 |
85.8 |
|
1995 ** |
200 |
314 |
63.7 |
2575 |
17 |
5 |
100.7 |
* Harbaugh's first year with the Colts
** Selected to Pro Bowl; runner-up for NFL MVP
Smith
|
Year |
Comp |
Att |
Pct |
Yards |
TD |
INT |
Rating |
|
2005 |
84 |
165 |
50.9 |
875 |
1 |
11 |
40.8 |
|
2006 |
257 |
442 |
58.1 |
2890 |
16 |
16 |
74.8 |
|
2007 |
94 |
193 |
48.7 |
914 |
2 |
4 |
57.2 |
|
2008 |
----- |
----- |
----- |
----- |
----- |
----- |
----- |
|
2009 |
225 |
372 |
60.5 |
2350 |
18 |
12 |
81.5 |
|
2010 |
204 |
342 |
59.6 |
2370 |
14 |
10 |
82.1 |
|
2011* |
273 |
445 |
61.3 |
3144 |
17 |
5 |
90.7 |
* The "Harbaugh Effect"
Smith (as a starter at Utah)
|
Year |
Comp |
Att |
Pct |
Yards |
TD |
INT |
|
2003 |
173 |
266 |
65.0 |
2247 |
15 |
3 |
|
2004 |
214 |
317 |
67.5 |
2952 |
32 |
4 |
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.
63 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I've been saying this since Smith signed back with the 49ers in the summer...
Jim Harbaugh sold Alex on being a 49er by referring to his experience when he went to Indy. In Chicago, Harbaugh played 89 games and had a cumulative QB rating of 74.2. In Indy, Harbaugh played 53 games and had a cumulative QB rating of 86.6. More telling yet for Alex’s future is that Harbaugh improved significantly in both his first and second years with the Colts (as noted above: he went from a 72.5 rating in Chicago to an 85.8 his first year in Indy — a massive jump — and then to 100.7 in his second year).
Obviously Harbaugh’s past success is no predictor of Alex’s future performance, but given that Alex will finally be in the same offense for two years in a row—and that it’s a good, well-schemed offense to boot…and that Alex always takes a bit of time to feel comfortable in a system, I think the team would be silly to throw away what they have with Smith to roll the dice with Kaepernick (unless of course Kaepernick is absolutely blowing them away on the practice field and in the preseason, which seems unlikely to me).
We still have Harbaugh. So there's hope.
Follow @grantmp1
I couldn't agree more.
Smith has improved each of the last three years. If Urban Meyer’s comment is true, we’ll finally get to see how good Smith can be in 2012.
It's hard to fathom how huge the jumps Harbaugh made in those two years were.
It’d be like this year’s version of Colt McCoy becoming this year’s version of Jay Cutler in year 1, and then him becoming better than Matthew Stafford in year 2.
We still have Harbaugh. So there's hope.
Follow @grantmp1
Yes, me too
Crabtree has improved each of the last three years. If Mike Leach’s comments are true, we’ll finally get to see how good Crabtree can be in 2012.
"It all depends on the quarterback."
---Jerry Rice
I don't think anyone ever said that about Crabtree.
Although, since it is a good bet the 49ers will address the wider receiver position multiple times this offseason, it’s a good bet Crabtree will improve – both because he should have someone other than Vernon Davis to take opposing secondaries’ focus off of him, and because he’ll be pushed by the competition from very early in training camp – if not before.
It will be interesting to see what Crabtree can do under these conditions. Personally, I’m not very optimistic, but for now I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.
while crabree has improved
He regressed in his second year.
I'm not an Alex Smith appologist. I'm an Alex hater hater.
by Andrew9erfan on Feb 22, 2012 7:02 PM PST up reply actions
he regressed his third year due to injury
He did not regress his 5th and 6th years
I'm not an Alex Smith appologist. I'm an Alex hater hater.
by Andrew9erfan on Feb 23, 2012 5:29 AM PST up reply actions
He regresses year 6 and now that I think about it, he wasnt bad wnough to regress in year 5.
Gonna make the WR position relevant again? When?
his 2009 and 2010 stats were fairly similar
With slightly hiher yards on fewer passes and a higher qb rating in 2010.
I'm not an Alex Smith appologist. I'm an Alex hater hater.
by Andrew9erfan on Feb 23, 2012 1:18 PM PST up reply actions
and yes I know about crabtrees injuries as well
I'm not an Alex Smith appologist. I'm an Alex hater hater.
by Andrew9erfan on Feb 23, 2012 5:35 AM PST up reply actions
That's not true
"Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light, not our darkness that most frightens us"
Definitely is, most people here say so and it was because of the staff, so it has to be true.
Gonna make the WR position relevant again? When?
i agree
Was just pointing out that the modified statement you posted doesn’t quite work. The principal stll applies though so maybe I’m just nit picking. But you are right that it’s ridiculous the double standards that go on with smith and crabtree.
I'm not an Alex Smith appologist. I'm an Alex hater hater.
by Andrew9erfan on Feb 23, 2012 5:32 AM PST up reply actions
3rd year he got 3 games in and then had his arm almost ripped off his body.
He didn’t play his 4th. He was just getting fully healthy his 5th. And he certainly didn’t regress his 6th year
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Feb 23, 2012 5:05 PM PST up reply actions
The difference is Alex needed two surgeries to fix his injury
Crabtree didn’t. I wonder which was more serious? And more real.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Feb 25, 2012 1:28 PM PST up reply actions
Nothing to say?
I don’t blame you.
You don’t need stupid facts clouding your psychosis.
"It all depends on the quarterback."
---Jerry Rice
If Urban Meyer’s comment is true, we’ll finally get to see how good Smith can be in 2012.
Urban Meyer said that about Alex Smith when he was 20 years old based on his experiences learning an offense at 18 years old. I’m so tired of hearing this quote brought up. A lot of things were true of anyone when they were 18-20 that have no bearing on their lives when they are 28. Even if was the truest thing ever said about Alex Smith at the time, I don’t see why we should think that it still applies seven years down the road.
My personal feeling: If Smith has the same professional hangups now that he had seven years ago, we’re probably in trouble either way.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Feb 21, 2012 8:34 PM PST up reply actions
Smith gets 1 more year
But I don’t think Harbaugh is giving Alex any brownie points due to the similarities you describe. I guarantee that Harbaugh isn’t content with only 1 championship game appearance and zero super bowl wins for his coaching career.
Harbaugh went with the best option financially, and also the best option without an offseason. It was the best choice to go forward with. All this other nonsense is speculation.
Gonna make the WR position relevant again? When?
No loyalty in a multibillion dollar industry.
None. There is always an expected return on investment — both money and time.
Every time Jamie Dukes says something enlightening and informative about football Jerry Rice and I mount up on our flying grizzly bears and claim pirate treasure from the moon. That's how often it happens.
There is some, when the player's expectations aren't ridiculous
Gore’s contract is a good example. Reasonable contract with some pay for past performance. Wish there was a little more loyalty from players on good teams, though.
If you can't tell the difference between loyalty and good business
(and I don’t mean that in the “you specifically can’t tell the difference” way but in the “it’s very hard to say whether it’s one or the other” way), and there are 6 zeroes on the check — the rationale behind the decision was a calculated business decision, not loyalty. There’s no such thing as friends when there are 6 zeroes on the check. Don’t let them fool you.
Every time Jamie Dukes says something enlightening and informative about football Jerry Rice and I mount up on our flying grizzly bears and claim pirate treasure from the moon. That's how often it happens.
by Ougadas on Feb 21, 2012 10:14 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
If it were that simple
Harbaugh wouldn’t be coaching the Niners. To some NFL people (not all) things like loyalty, family and community matter. I do think Harbaugh sees another challenge in redeeming Alex Smith. The decision isn’t going to be Harbaugh’s alone, Baalke may be the one to sevesr ties financially. That doesn’t mean there isn’t a genuine affinity for Alex by Harbaugh.
by throwthedamnball on Feb 21, 2012 12:55 PM PST up reply actions
I guess if you wan’t to define loyalty only as “hey we’ve been buddies for a while”, then I might agree. Business leaders, such as myself, wouldn’t define loyalty so narrowly – especially not when making personel decisions. Loyalty encompasses things such as experience in the system, familiarity with coaches/teammates and you know what you get (versus what you THINK you might get with someone else).
Saying that loyalty (as I’ve defined it) always factors 0% would be a ridiculous statement. A calculated business decision will include an aspect of loyalty. It isn’t an overwhelming factor on it’s own and is negligible in many cases, but it does exist and does tip the scales from time to time.
I will agree with that
With your definition of loyalty.
But I would never include experience in the system or familiarity as “loyalty”. Some of the most experienced and familiar players on your team will drop you at the first larger offer they get. Loyalty is an emotion of indebtedness that leads one to act in benefit of the party they are loyal to at the cost of ones own self interest. i.e. A coach starting a player who is not the best at his position, or a player taking less money to play for a coach he feels gave him a second chance.
Every time Jamie Dukes says something enlightening and informative about football Jerry Rice and I mount up on our flying grizzly bears and claim pirate treasure from the moon. That's how often it happens.
The word speculation can easily be replaced with a word that breaks site decorum rules.
Gonna make the WR position relevant again? When?
When you’re talking from a player perspective, there definitely is going to be little consideration of loyalty unless they’re already “paid” and/or there’s not much of a difference in potential salaries. As you suggest, few people are going to turn down a 10%+ salary increase just to stay on a good team or a team they’ve been with.
I think it is possible to develop a more loyal player base and get a better roster of quality players because you’re not overpaying 3-4 guys, but it isn’t easy and the owners/GMs seem to shoot themselves in the foot more often than not.
I think there is some loyalty at the outset -
i.e., Harbaugh considers it “Smith’s job to lose” at this point, partly because of past performance and partly because of personal affection…and I don’t believe Harbaugh will hesitate for one minute to replace Smith if he thinks it’s best for the team.
I also think that Smith will feel some loyalty to the 49ers during his contract negotiations because he knows they stuck with him when a lot of teams would have handed him his walking papers years ago, and because he knows Harbaugh has him (finally) headed in the right direction.
Any decision in life, particularly in business, is guided substantially by self-interest, but that doesn’t mean personal feelings don’t get involved.
Wow, regardless of his overrated performance, hes the best move financially and best direction for success.
NFL, no F@#$% loyalty
Gonna make the WR position relevant again? When?
You could have just said...
…“he went with the best option” and left it at that. But I know how much you like to dig on Smith… I look forward to him shutting you up in 2012.
And I mean that in the nicest, non-combative, kumbaya type of way. :)
What I said was fine, your observations are comical and false.
Can’t make that nice at all. A
Gonna make the WR position relevant again? When?
Then again, Harbaugh had an easier choice...
…he could have taken the popular way out and dumped Alex’s butt in a heartbeat. I doubt anyone on NN would have criticized Harbs for letting Alex go.
But Harbaugh doesn’t do popularity contests.
I'm having trouble recongnizing the Harbaugh effect
2% point improvement in completions? Less interceptions? Aren’t these the same stats Alex Smith put up after a shouting match with Singletary?
by asmithisaverage on Feb 22, 2012 9:38 AM PST reply actions
yes, the only statistical improvement is INT%
which is probably part coaching, part fluke, and part the fact that a better team overall meant the Niners were trailing in fewer games and could throw in a less risky manner.
Smith was pretty average in 2010 and he was pretty average in 2011. I expect him to be pretty average in 2012 as well.
[Poorly Wrought THING] is what Brian Sabean would have made if he were a [THING-maker] instead of a MLB GM
I expect 280 to 320 passing yards per game average, 6- 10 Int’s, and 28 -35 TD’s. I’m not sure if that’s average, but that is what I fully expect from A.S.
I think next season our offensive line is going to be dominant or better. Alex should get a second or two more to let plays develop.
"I feel like I'm the best, but you're not going to get me to say that."
--Jerry Rice
more attempts?
And maybe less conservative gameplan
I'm not an Alex Smith appologist. I'm an Alex hater hater.
by Andrew9erfan on Feb 23, 2012 5:34 AM PST up reply actions
Game plan will remain conservative, I just can’t see why they would so a complete 180 from the philosophy, especially with the defense.
Gonna make the WR position relevant again? When?
God I hope not
I’m not sure my blood pressure can take another season of shotgun draws on 3rd and 13.
Every time Jamie Dukes says something enlightening and informative about football Jerry Rice and I mount up on our flying grizzly bears and claim pirate treasure from the moon. That's how often it happens.
Get ready, I mean seriously, would you trust Alex on 3rd and .13 vs a cover 4?
Gonna make the WR position relevant again? When?
Not really no
But if we’re going to keep up with this “we have to play within his limits” BS, then forget about the new contract and start over. Fix the right side of the line, and use the defense and our running game to help our young QB get some experience.
Every time Jamie Dukes says something enlightening and informative about football Jerry Rice and I mount up on our flying grizzly bears and claim pirate treasure from the moon. That's how often it happens.
Exactly what I would do.
Gonna make the WR position relevant again? When?
by rlott#42 on Feb 23, 2012 12:23 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
No way he goes 5 picks or under next season
You can’t do the exact same things every year, it won’t work. Teams catch on pretty fast. The Giants caught on. We get a couple new recievers, throw the ball a little more, Alex throws into tighter and tighter windows, and we get more TD’s whilst giving up a couple more interceptions. I am just looking at a smooth natural progression.
"I feel like I'm the best, but you're not going to get me to say that."
--Jerry Rice
Toghter and tighter windows?
He’s playing against man to man. Review the big plays its all vs man to man. Howany picks did he throw in the playoffs? I wouldn’t expect them to double, that’s a regression without 34 Tds.
Gonna make the WR position relevant again? When?
I did guess 6-10 Int's
and 28-35 TD’s. So maybe 7 Ints 33 TDs? I don’t know. I don’t see where the coverage is going to change his interception rates. If he’s throwing to open recievers the passes should be safe enough.
"I feel like I'm the best, but you're not going to get me to say that."
--Jerry Rice
A. Smith starts in 2012
and I have no issue with that. He flipping deserves it, and I hope he continues to improve. I think Kaep starts a few games due to injury to Smith, and he is going to wow people. I don’t think Kaep is ready to start…yet. He will be soon though. And then WATCH OUT NFL!
Who's got it better than Honey Badger? Honey Badger don't give a ....
Kaepernick's raw talent + Harbaugh's coaching = Hall of Fame QB
Frankly how many more years does Alex get.
Geez time to put him to pasture. Hes had 7 years. Let me repeat that -7 years to prove himself and frankly it doesnt look good .3 good games out of 14. Kap on the other hand has the future to build on and now is the time to start the QB rebuilding process. With other teams you could use the old QB for advice but seriously would you go to Alex for that? Peyton yes, Alex no. To even compair Alex to JHs seasons is laughable because JH would never be held down. You can see that from a compitition stand point with JH. Probably had that when he was a kid. Alex not so much.
-7 years to prove himself?
That doesn’t even make sense. And .3 good games out of 14 isn’t even close to being an accurate statement.
I'm not an Alex Smith appologist. I'm an Alex hater hater.
by Andrew9erfan on Feb 23, 2012 8:38 PM PST up reply actions

by 




































