The Franchise Tag Cost for the CB position, according to Mike Sando was $10.281 million.
In looking over the contract, it looks like the 49ers basically took the same risk as paying Rogers the franchise tag for 2012 and bet that from 2013-2015 he'll produce at least at the same level as he did while he was with the redskins.
Instead of talking in general terms, I decided to break the contract down and then analyse the 4 worst case scenarios that I see happening and its impact on the 49ers.
2012: 3.9M base + 5M signing bonus
2013: 5.5M base (guaranteed if he's on the roster as of April 1, 2013) or 1.75M if he's cut before April 1, 2013.
2014: 6.25M base
2015: 7.25M base
Maiocci also says there are 2M in incentives.
Scenario 1 - Worst Case
Rogers significantly regresses or gets injured, doesn't earn any incentives. Cost to team $10.65M or only 400K more than if the 49ers had used their franchise tag to keep him around. Cap hit would be 8.9M this year and 1.75M in dead money next year. This would be horrible, but after last season, it would be the same as if the team franchised him, which everyone can agree he deserved. Probowl CBs get paid in the NFL and Rogers' contract pays him like a probowl CB in 2012 no matter what. Rogers comes out the winner in this situation, but damage to the team is limited to 2012.
Scenario 2 - No, This is the Worst Case
Carlos regresses to above average CB play, doesn't earn his incentives but the team can't find a suitable FA to replace him in 2013, so he stays. Carlos hits his wall in year 2 and is cut at the end of the season. Cost to team, 14.4M or 4.11M more than the franchise amount. Rogers would have basically turned into spencer by offering average CB play in 2012 and then riding the bench for 2013. Cap hit would be 5.5M in year one and 8.9M in year two. This scenario seems like the worst case scenario because not only would he fail to return his franchise value in 2012, but he would cost about 3M more than a backup in 2013. Rogers comes out the winner in this situation and the team is hurt in 2012 and injured in 2013, but free to move on there after.
Option 3 - Not a Good Case
Carlos regresses to above average CB play in 2012, doesn't earn incentives but is kept around in 2013, still a little above average so he's brought back for 2014 and then rides the bench in 2014. I think of this scenario as getting Carlos while he was with the redskins for 2012, 2010 spencer for 2013 and then 2011 spencer for 2014. Cost to team in addition to franchise value, 4M for 2013 and 6.25M for 2014. Fair for 2013 and then overpaid by 5M in 2014. Cap hit would be 5.5M in year one, 6.75M in year 2 and 8.4M in year 3. Wouldn't be great, but the team would have had a viable starter for 2 years.
Option 4 - Okay Case
Carlos regresses to above average CB play, never earns incenties but is servicable. This would mean 27.9M over 4 years, or 6.975M a year. A little expensive for average CB play, but not over the top, especially if the 49ers have built up the position in the draft and have his replacement ready for 2016. Cap hit would be 5.5M, 6.75M, 7.5M and 8.5M
In reviewing these 4 scenarios, it looks like if the 49ers get one more probowl year or years of above average production, they will have made money on the deal. Anything more than that and they'd have made one of the most team friendly deals in recent memory.
What do you guys think?