This is awesome stuff.
I'm gonna expand on this with a fan post of my own soon, but for now I will tentatively put us on the optimistic side of 10/11 wins. The regression work says just over nine (and after more analysis, just over eight), but we can hang with anyone in the league. I really don't see us losing more than five games next year, let alone seven or eight! Unless we just have the worst run of luck imaginable and drop games by 2 - 4 points left and right.
But Harbaugh teams play too disciplined to drop that many close games against lesser opponents, and by playing disciplined they play consistent and therefore reduce variance. All this should put us on the good side of nine, no?
And are we really gonna lose all three of our tough road games (GB, NO, NE)? I mean, really, our boys won't step it up to win at least one of those games? If we lose all three of those games, I won't be worried about our record, I'll be worried about losing to those guys on the road again in the playoffs!
Either way, cool website. Cool article.