FanPost

Alex Smith Stat Prediction Results: Week One

Week One of the Alex Smith Stat Prediction Game is in the books. We had a plenty of participation, which made things fun. A few people were dead on, some were dead wrong, and most of us fell somewhere in between.

Just eyeballing the predictions on Sunday, I thought YellowMelonCust might be the winner, but the numbers tell a slightly different tale. Instead, it's Touchdown.....LaMichael James!!!!! who takes the lead in week one.

I've posted the full leaderboard below, including the subscores for the six categories. I thought I'd definitely include them this time so people could get an idea of how their score breaks down. In the future, I might just show the cumulative score. If anyone has any strong feelings on way or the other, let me know.

Here are Alex Smith's final stats for Week One. They were sparklingly efficient, if not quite as productive as many of us dreamed.
Att Comp Comp % Yds TDs INTs Sacks
26 20 76.90% 211 2 0 4
And here are the Week One rankings, with the calculated average of all the predictions at the very bottom. Throughout the season, I'll be keeping track of both weekly winners and the leaders through the most recent game.

Rank User Att Comp Comp % Yds TDs INTs Sacks A B C D E F Score
1 Touchdown.....LaMichael James!!! 28 22 78.6% 268 2 0 4 0.83 0.89 0.43 1 1 1 5.15
2 16to80fan 29 20 69.0% 247 2 0 4 0.75 0.47 0.64 1 1 1 4.86
3 Bravedown50 27 21 77.8% 273 2 0 2 0.92 0.94 0.38 1 1 0.6 4.84
4 YellowMelonCust 30 20 66.7% 213 2 0 3 0.67 0.32 0.98 1 1 0.8 4.77
5 rlott#42 23 17 73.9% 243 3 1 4 0.75 0.8 0.68 0.67 0.67 1 4.57
6 mrg80 31 22 71.0% 276 2 0 4 0.58 0.61 0.35 1 1 1 4.54
7 AzNiner 23 18 78.3% 256 2 1 2 0.75 0.91 0.55 1 0.67 0.6 4.48
8 sik49er 25 17 68.0% 196 1 0 2 0.92 0.41 0.85 0.67 1 0.6 4.45
9 MRandolph 26 17 65.4% 170 2 0 2 1 0.23 0.59 1 1 0.6 4.42
10 The RealFakename 32 24 75.0% 280 2 0 2 0.5 0.87 0.31 1 1 0.6 4.28
11 Aaron Emerson 32 24 75.0% 289 3 0 4 0.5 0.87 0.22 0.67 1 1 4.26
12 Katydid 30 20 66.7% 250 2 1 3 0.67 0.32 0.61 1 0.67 0.8 4.07
13 Desert Dog Runner 31 20 64.5% 267 2 0 3 0.58 0.17 0.44 1 1 0.8 3.99
14 ak4niner 28 21 75.0% 340 3 0 2 0.83 0.87 0 0.67 1 0.6 3.97
15 leaping_larry 32 22 68.8% 239 1 0 2 0.5 0.46 0.72 0.67 1 0.6 3.95
16 Fred.P.Soft 32 22 68.8% 250 3 0 2 0.5 0.46 0.61 0.67 1 0.6 3.84
17 msclemons67 25 16 64.0% 189 0 0 2 0.92 0.14 0.78 0.33 1 0.6 3.77
18 Naguabo 31 19 61.3% 244 2 1 3 0.58 0 0.67 1 0.67 0.8 3.72
19 49erLou 33 21 63.6% 196 2 1 2 0.42 0.11 0.85 1 0.67 0.6 3.65
20 Dilon 33 24 72.7% 280 3 1 3 0.42 0.72 0.31 0.67 0.67 0.8 3.59
21 SH0ck-D 28 19 67.9% 314 3 0 2 0.83 0.4 0 0.67 1 0.6 3.5
22 bradyk2 33 21 63.6% 264 3 0 3 0.42 0.11 0.47 0.67 1 0.8 3.47
23 liberty_JAC 31 20 64.5% 253 4 0 3 0.58 0.17 0.58 0.33 1 0.8 3.46
24 Ni9er 33 22 66.7% 255 3 1 3 0.42 0.32 0.56 0.67 0.67 0.8 3.44
25 riderless 24 19 79.2% 288 3 2 1 0.83 0.85 0.23 0.67 0.33 0.4 3.31
26 whistlingmountain 35 21 60.0% 225 2 2 5 0.25 0 0.86 1 0.33 0.8 3.24
27 Drew Kerr 33 21 63.6% 283 3 2 4 0.42 0.11 0.28 0.67 0.33 1 2.81
28 Stupifyed 38 24 63.2% 277 3 1 2 0 0.09 0.34 0.67 0.67 0.6 2.37
29 danknerd49 41 34 82.9% 402 5 1 1 0 0.6 0 0 0.67 0.4 1.67
n/a Average 30 21 70.0% 260 2.4 0.5 2.7 0.67 0.54 0.51 0.87 0.83 0.74 4.16

General Musings

We were an optimistic bunch overall, which is understandable given the offseason buzz the passing game received and the not so stellar reputation of Green Bay's offense. Ultimately, most of us forgot the golden rule of Alex Smith: efficiency over production. And the guy just doesn't know how to throw an interception.

As you can see from the average statistics at the bottom of the leaderboard, the predictions trended very high for yards, and surprisingly high for TDs, especially when you consider that Alex was averaging just 0.63 TDs and 190 yds per game on the road last season. The TD optimism proved to be with merit: he tossed for 2 against GB.

I was actually pretty surprised by how high the average predicted completion percentage ended up being: right around 70%. Alex averaged 60.2% on the road last year. Either people believed that the offseason work with Tom House and the OTAs and training camps working on chemistry with his receivers helped, or they thought very little of Green Bay's passing D. Probably a little bit of column A, a little bit of column B.

Hopeless optimist of the week: Danknerd, who was wildly optimistic to the tune of racking up the lowest score of the week: 1.67.

Curmudgeon of the week: This honor goes to msclemons67, who despite being the only person to predict 0 TDs, posted a respectable score of 3.77, good for middle of the pack.

Unexpectedly accurate as a group: The lowest prediction for completion percentage was submitted by whistlingmountain, and it was still a quite decent 60%. That's right around Alex Smith's average last year. Kudos to the hive mind for predicting nearly 70% completion percentage. The remarkable thing is that we were still too low by 7 percentage points.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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