FanPost

Alex Smith Stat Prediction Game: Week Two

How well do you know the 49ers quarterback? Last game, Touchdown.....LaMichael James!!!!! won bragging rights with a score of 5.15 out of 6 and currently stands at the top of the leaderboard. Fortunately for the rest of us, it's a new week, and a new opportunity to claim the lead.

The rules are simple. Guess Alex Smith's passing stat line (rush attempts, yards, and TDs will not be counted, unlike last year) for the upcoming game (49ers vs Lions) using the following format in the comments below.

Attempts:
Completions:
Yards:
TDs:
INTs:
Sacks:
Rushing Yards (Optional):
Rushing TDs (Optional):


Feel free to revise your numbers all the way up to game time. I'll use only the most recent guess. If you want to update your numbers, please reply to your original comment with the revised guess.

NEW this round: Although I'm not currently scoring rushing stats (yards and TDs), I'm considering doing something with them at some point. For now, if you'd like to add rushing stats to your guess, please do. I'll highlight the person with the closest rushing predictions in the results column.

Scoring:

The scoring is based on a 6-point system, with each of the following metrics accounting for a point: Attempts, Completion % (calculated from Cmp/Att numbers), Yards, TDs, INTs, and Sacks. It's a bit dry, but for the curious, here is how each of the metrics are scored:

Attempts: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualAtt - AttGuessed) / 12)

Completion %: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualComp% - (CompGuessed/AttGuessed * 100)) / 15)

Yards: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualYards - YardsGuessed) / 100)

TDs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualTDs - TDsGuessed) / 3)

INTs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualINTs - INTsGuessed) / 3)

Sacks: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualSacks - SacksGuessed) / 5)

The six scoring categories are added up to produce a composite score. The maximum that can be scored is 6 points; the minimum is 0. I'll keep a running leaderboard throughout the season if there's enough participation, along with posting the weekly results.

Here is how opposing QBs have performed at home against the Lions over Detroit's last 8 road games:

WeekQBSacksCompAttPctYdsYds / AttTDINTRateYear Rate
3Donovan McNabb4223661.12115.91086.782.9
4Tony Romo1344772.333173386.4102.5
8Tim Tebow7183946.21724.41156.872.9
10Jay Cutler291947.41236.50068.585.7
13Drew Brees2263672.23429.530129.6110.6
15Carson Palmer33240803679.210113.280.5
17Matt Flynn3314470.548010.961136.4124.8
PS1Drew Brees2334376.746610.830134.4110.6
-Average3263867.43128.22.250.63105.396.3

Here is how Alex Smith has performed at home over his last 8 home games:

WeekTeamSacksCompAttPctYdsYds / AttTDINTRate
5TB0111957.91708.930127.2
8CLE1152462.51777.41098.8
10NYG2193063.32428.11185.7
11ARI0203852.62677.02181.8
13STL4172373.927411.920142.3
15PIT0183158.11876.01086.4
PS1NO4244257.12997.130103.2
PS2NYG3122646.21967.52097.6
-Average1.75172958.42277.81.90.25101

Previous games:

Week 01: Predictions - Results

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Niners Nation

You must be a member of Niners Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Niners Nation. You should read them.

Join Niners Nation

You must be a member of Niners Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Niners Nation. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker