FanPost

Alex Smith Stat Prediction Game: Week Three

How well do you know the 49ers quarterback? Two weeks into the game, we have two leaders tied atop the leaderboard: rlott#42 and YellowMelonCust at 9.78, with plenty of competition within spitting distance. Last week's results and the season-to-date leaderboard can be found at the bottom of the post.

For everyone else, this week is another opportunity to venture a prediction and potentially claim the lead.

The rules are simple. Guess Alex Smith's passing stat line for the upcoming game (49ers at Vikings) using the following format in the comments below.

Attempts:
Completions:
Yards:
TDs:
INTs:
Sacks:
Rushing Yards (Optional):
Rushing TDs (Optional):


Feel free to revise your numbers all the way up to game time. I'll use only the most recent guess. If you want to update your numbers, please reply to your original comment with the revised guess.

NOTE: Although I'm not currently scoring rushing stats (yards and TDs), I'm considering doing something with them at some point. For now, if you'd like to add rushing stats to your guess, please do. I'll highlight the person with the closest rushing predictions in the results column.

Scoring:

The scoring is based on a 6-point system, with each of the following metrics accounting for a point: Attempts, Completion % (calculated from Cmp/Att numbers), Yards, TDs, INTs, and Sacks. It's a bit dry, but for the curious, here is how each of the metrics are scored:

Attempts: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualAtt - AttGuessed) / 12)

Completion %: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualComp% - (CompGuessed/AttGuessed * 100)) / 15)

Yards: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualYards - YardsGuessed) / 100)

TDs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualTDs - TDsGuessed) / 3)

INTs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualINTs - INTsGuessed) / 3)

Sacks: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualSacks - SacksGuessed) / 5)

The six scoring categories are added up to produce a composite score. The maximum that can be scored is 6 points; the minimum is 0. I'll keep a running leaderboard throughout the season, along with posting the weekly results.

WEEK TWO RESULTS

For the second week in a row, I was certain YellowMelonCust would claim the top spot in the weekly leaderboard, but the scoring rubric decided otherwise. YellowMelonCust is still sitting pretty, though, tied for #1 at the top of the season-to-date leaderboard.

Bragging rights for this week belong to Desert Dog Runner, who was almost dead on, aside from predicting an INT. That single blemish wasn't enough to bring his score down enough for me to take the lead from my #2 spot, alas. rlott#42 finished in third, with newcomers (to the game) reedkrase and driddo5k rounding out the top five.

Here is what Alex Smith's week against the Lions looked like:

AttCompComp %YdsTDsINTsSacksRush YdsRush TDs
312064.522620370

And here are the Week Two rankings:

RankUserAttCompComp %YdsTDsINTsSacksABCDEFScore
1Desert Dog Runner281864.3%2262130.750.99110.6715.41
2Katydid291965.5%2502040.830.930.76110.85.32
3rlott#42332163.6%2232140.830.940.9710.670.85.21
4driddo5k301963.3%1891030.920.920.630.67115.14
5reedkrase292172.4%2502030.830.470.761115.06
6Stupifyed291965.5%2663030.830.930.60.67115.03
7YellowMelonCust282175.0%2222030.750.30.961115.01
8Aaron Emerson312477.4%24520310.140.811114.95
9The RealFakename332472.7%2602030.830.450.661114.94
10Drew Kerr332266.7%2422150.830.850.8410.670.64.79
11oldfoggy311858.1%27930310.570.470.67114.71
12Delmuir272074.1%2231030.670.360.970.67114.67
1349erLou322371.9%2892040.920.510.37110.84.6
14whistlingmountain241770.8%2052040.420.580.79110.84.59
15Rhardin221672.7%2472030.250.450.791114.49
16bradyk2282175.0%2682040.750.30.58110.84.43
17AzNiner332472.7%2893030.830.450.370.67114.32
18Fred.P.Soft302480.0%2553030.9200.710.67114.3
19MRandolph312271.0%26731410.570.590.670.670.84.3
20sik49er292379.3%2493030.830.010.770.67114.28
21San Fran Niners352468.6%3103030.670.730.160.67114.23
22Edggy332781.8%2872030.8300.391114.22
23JDilla415292379.3%2803030.830.010.460.67113.97
24SH0ck-D271970.4%2653150.670.610.610.670.670.63.83
25Ni9er362466.7%3004020.580.850.260.3310.83.82
26liberty_JAC231878.3%2883020.330.080.380.6710.83.26
27sanluisobispo49ers262284.6%3103130.5800.160.670.6713.08
-Average302170.0%2592030.920.630.671115.22

General Musings

Collectively, the group did much better than most of the individuals. When all the predictions were averaged, the (rounded) results ended up scoring well enough to steal the #3 ranking, if I included the average in the rankings.

We were less wildly optimistic overall this week, which helped the average score. Interestingly, Alex Smith's high completion percentage prompted quite a few participants to up their accuracy predictions. Thanks to several drops, the accuracy "optimists" suffered this week. Completion percentage was the category that gave everyone the most difficulty and hurt overall scores the most.

Rushing yards this week were skewed by the holding penalty, along with the kneeldowns. Counting kneeldowns, Stupifyed came within 1 yard of Alex's rushing total with a prediction of 8 yards. Ignoring the 3 kneeldowns, driddo5k came closest with a prediction of 11 yards.

Season-to-Date Leaderboard

RankNameWeek 01Week 02Total
1 (T)rlott#424.575.219.78
1 (T)YellowMelonCust4.775.019.78
3Desert Dog Runner3.995.419.40
4Katydid4.075.329.39
5Average4.165.229.38
6The RealFakename4.284.949.22
7Aaron Emerson4.264.959.21
8AzNiner4.484.328.80
9sik49er4.454.288.73
10MRandolph 4.424.308.72
1149erLou3.654.608.25
12Fred.P.Soft3.844.308.14
13bradyk23.474.437.90
14whistlingmountain3.244.597.83
15Drew Kerr2.814.797.60
16Stupifyed2.375.037.40
17SH0ck-D3.503.837.33
18Ni9er3.443.827.26
19liberty_JAC3.463.266.72
20Touchdown.....LaMichael James!!!5.150.005.15
21driddo5k0.005.145.14
22reedkrase0.005.065.06
2316to80fan4.860.004.86
24Bravedown504.840.004.84
25oldfoggy0.004.714.71
26Delmuir0.004.614.61
27mrg804.540.004.54
28Rhardin0.004.494.49
29San Fran Niners0.004.234.23
30Edggy0.004.224.22
31ak4niner3.970.003.97
32JDilla4150.003.973.97
33leaping_larry3.950.003.95
34msclemons673.770.003.77
35Naguabo3.720.003.72
36Dilon3.590.003.59
37riderless3.310.003.31
38sanluisobispo49ers0.003.083.08
39danknerd491.670.001.67

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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