How well do you know the 49ers quarterback? Hopefully better than we thought we did last week. Last week, only five people even cracked the 4.0-point barrier, in stark contrast to the previous week, when only five people didn't crack the 4.0-point barrier.
Three weeks are in the books, and the tie at the top has been broken as a new leader emerges coming off a strong week 3 performance. Welcome, Desert Dog Runner, to the top of the leaderboard. YellowMelonCust remains a strong 2nd place, while me and the collective mindhive (aka "Average") leapfrog previous co-leader rlott#42 for 3rd and 4th place. Last week's results and the season-to-date leaderboard can be found at the bottom of the post.
For everyone else, this week is another opportunity to venture a prediction and potentially claim the lead.
The rules are simple. Guess Alex Smith's passing stat line for the upcoming game (49ers at Jets) using the following format in the comments below.
Rushing Yards (Optional):
Rushing TDs (Optional):
Feel free to revise your numbers all the way up to game time. I'll use only the most recent guess. If you want to update your numbers, please reply to your original comment with the revised guess.
NOTE: Although I'm not currently scoring rushing stats (yards and TDs), I'm considering doing something with them at some point. For now, if you'd like to add rushing stats to your guess, please do. I'll highlight the person with the closest rushing predictions in the results column.
The scoring is based on a 6-point system, with each of the following metrics accounting for a point: Attempts, Completion % (calculated from Cmp/Att numbers), Yards, TDs, INTs, and Sacks. It's a bit dry, but for the curious, here is how each of the metrics are scored:
Attempts: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualAtt - AttGuessed) / 12)
Completion %: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualComp% - (CompGuessed/AttGuessed * 100)) / 15)
Yards: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualYards - YardsGuessed) / 100)
TDs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualTDs - TDsGuessed) / 3)
INTs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualINTs - INTsGuessed) / 3)
Sacks: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualSacks - SacksGuessed) / 5)
The six scoring categories are added up to produce a composite score. The maximum that can be scored is 6 points; the minimum is 0. I'll keep a running leaderboard throughout the season, along with posting the weekly results.
WEEK THREE RESULTSAfter Alex Smith's excellent numbers in weeks one and two, it's clear pretty much all of us went a little wild with optimism. Still, there were a select few who came reasonably close this week.
Top honors this week belong, for the second week in a row, to Desert Dog Runner, who was the only person to predict only a single TD. Everything else was close enough, and everyone else wrong enough, for him to take the decisive lead. In a tightly grouped cluster below Desert Dog Runner were 16to80fan, Delmuir, whistlingmountain, and YellowMelonCust, rounding out the top five.
Here is what Alex Smith's week against the Vikings looked like:
|Att||Comp||Comp %||Yds||TDs||INTs||Sacks||Rush Yds||Rush TDs|
And here are the Week Three rankings:
|1||Desert Dog Runner||30||19||63.3%||239||1||0||3||0.58||0.65||0.65||1||0.67||1||4.55|
|21||Little Bobby Tables||21||17||81.0%||199||3||0||2||0||0.17||0.95||0.33||0.67||0.8||2.92|
|24||San Fran Niners||30||25||83.3%||270||3||0||2||0.58||0.02||0.34||0.33||0.67||0.8||2.74|
General MusingsMuch like the team we love and watch, we didn't do so hot last week. Clearly, we're just as vulnerable to the nefarious influence of Freddy P. Soft. The average predicted completion percentage was a staggering 75.9%, and the average predicted TDs was 3. Oops? I'll be very curious to see how the pendulum swings in the predictions this week.
It had to happen eventually, and this happened to be the week: Alex Smith finally threw a pick. That dinged almost everyone 0.33 points right off the bat. The main category that hurt people this week was predicted TDs, followed by completion percentage. Pass attempts also gave people trouble, due to the 49ers flinging the rock around a bit more last week.
Rushing yards this week were solid at 26 yards. We actually had a six-way tie for the rushing yards prediction. 22 yards was a popular guess, submitted by Fred.P.Soft, Aaron Emerson, Ni9er, Ador08, and mountaindew77. I was a rebel with my 30 yards guess, which was also 4 yards off, good to gain me a piece of the tie.
|Rank||Name||Wk 01||Wk 02||Wk 03||Total||Average|
|1||Desert Dog Runner||3.99||5.41||4.55||13.95||4.65|
|24||San Fran Niners||-||4.23||2.74||6.97||3.49|
|41||Little Bobby Tables||-||-||2.92||2.92||2.92|