FanPost

Alex Smith Stat Prediction Game: Week Four

I'm posting this week's game a bit earlier than usual, as I'll actually be out of town this weekend. Rest assured I'll be sporting 49ers colors this time on Sunday, rather than foolishly donning the color of the enemy.

How well do you know the 49ers quarterback? Hopefully better than we thought we did last week. Last week, only five people even cracked the 4.0-point barrier, in stark contrast to the previous week, when only five people didn't crack the 4.0-point barrier.

Three weeks are in the books, and the tie at the top has been broken as a new leader emerges coming off a strong week 3 performance. Welcome, Desert Dog Runner, to the top of the leaderboard. YellowMelonCust remains a strong 2nd place, while me and the collective mindhive (aka "Average") leapfrog previous co-leader rlott#42 for 3rd and 4th place. Last week's results and the season-to-date leaderboard can be found at the bottom of the post.

For everyone else, this week is another opportunity to venture a prediction and potentially claim the lead.

The rules are simple. Guess Alex Smith's passing stat line for the upcoming game (49ers at Jets) using the following format in the comments below.

Attempts:
Completions:
Yards:
TDs:
INTs:
Sacks:
Rushing Yards (Optional):
Rushing TDs (Optional):


Feel free to revise your numbers all the way up to game time. I'll use only the most recent guess. If you want to update your numbers, please reply to your original comment with the revised guess.

NOTE: Although I'm not currently scoring rushing stats (yards and TDs), I'm considering doing something with them at some point. For now, if you'd like to add rushing stats to your guess, please do. I'll highlight the person with the closest rushing predictions in the results column.

Scoring:

The scoring is based on a 6-point system, with each of the following metrics accounting for a point: Attempts, Completion % (calculated from Cmp/Att numbers), Yards, TDs, INTs, and Sacks. It's a bit dry, but for the curious, here is how each of the metrics are scored:

Attempts: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualAtt - AttGuessed) / 12)

Completion %: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualComp% - (CompGuessed/AttGuessed * 100)) / 15)

Yards: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualYards - YardsGuessed) / 100)

TDs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualTDs - TDsGuessed) / 3)

INTs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualINTs - INTsGuessed) / 3)

Sacks: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualSacks - SacksGuessed) / 5)

The six scoring categories are added up to produce a composite score. The maximum that can be scored is 6 points; the minimum is 0. I'll keep a running leaderboard throughout the season, along with posting the weekly results.

WEEK THREE RESULTS

After Alex Smith's excellent numbers in weeks one and two, it's clear pretty much all of us went a little wild with optimism. Still, there were a select few who came reasonably close this week.

Top honors this week belong, for the second week in a row, to Desert Dog Runner, who was the only person to predict only a single TD. Everything else was close enough, and everyone else wrong enough, for him to take the decisive lead. In a tightly grouped cluster below Desert Dog Runner were 16to80fan, Delmuir, whistlingmountain, and YellowMelonCust, rounding out the top five.

Here is what Alex Smith's week against the Vikings looked like:

Att Comp Comp % Yds TDs INTs Sacks Rush Yds Rush TDs
35 24 68.6% 204 1 1 3 26 0

And here are the Week Three rankings:

Rank User Att Comp Comp % Yds TDs INTs Sacks A B C D E F Score
1 Desert Dog Runner 30 19 63.3% 239 1 0 3 0.58 0.65 0.65 1 0.67 1 4.55
2 16to80fan 27 19 70.4% 221 2 0 4 0.33 0.88 0.83 0.67 0.67 0.8 4.18
3 Delmuir 27 18 66.7% 244 2 0 3 0.33 0.87 0.6 0.67 0.67 1 4.14
4 whistlingmountain 29 21 72.4% 230 2 0 4 0.5 0.75 0.74 0.67 0.67 0.8 4.13
5 YellowMelonCust 29 21 72.4% 235 2 0 2 0.5 0.75 0.69 0.67 0.67 0.8 4.08
6 Katydid 33 24 72.7% 275 3 0 3 0.83 0.73 0.29 0.33 0.67 1 3.85
7 Ni9er 30 23 76.7% 235 3 0 3 0.58 0.46 0.69 0.33 0.67 1 3.73
8 SH0ck-D 24 17 70.8% 230 3 0 3 0.08 0.85 0.74 0.33 0.67 1 3.67
9 blue42red30 35 28 80.0% 271 3 0 3 1 0.24 0.33 0.33 0.67 1 3.57
10 The RealFakename 30 24 80.0% 230 3 0 3 0.58 0.24 0.74 0.33 0.67 1 3.56
11 49erLou 32 20 62.5% 268 3 0 2 0.75 0.59 0.36 0.33 0.67 0.8 3.5
12 Drew Kerr 39 29 74.4% 324 3 1 4 0.67 0.61 0 0.33 1 0.8 3.41
13 Aaron Emerson 31 24 77.4% 256 3 0 4 0.67 0.41 0.48 0.33 0.67 0.8 3.36
14 liberty_JAC 27 21 77.8% 221 3 0 2 0.33 0.39 0.83 0.33 0.67 0.8 3.35
15 mountaindew77 29 22 75.9% 280 3 0 3 0.5 0.51 0.24 0.33 0.67 1 3.25
16 Bravedown50 28 21 75.0% 283 3 0 3 0.42 0.57 0.21 0.33 0.67 1 3.2
17 sik49er 27 21 77.8% 238 3 0 2 0.33 0.39 0.66 0.33 0.67 0.8 3.18
18 MRandolph 28 22 78.6% 275 2 0 4 0.42 0.33 0.29 0.67 0.67 0.8 3.18
19 rlott#42 26 21 80.8% 235 3 0 3 0.25 0.19 0.69 0.33 0.67 1 3.13
20 sanluisobispo49ers 32 25 78.1% 320 3 0 2 0.75 0.37 0 0.33 0.67 0.8 2.92
21 Little Bobby Tables 21 17 81.0% 199 3 0 2 0 0.17 0.95 0.33 0.67 0.8 2.92
22 Ador08 31 25 80.6% 305 3 0 3 0.67 0.2 0 0.33 0.67 1 2.87
23 Edggy 34 27 79.4% 317 3 0 1 0.92 0.28 0 0.33 0.67 0.6 2.8
24 San Fran Niners 30 25 83.3% 270 3 0 2 0.58 0.02 0.34 0.33 0.67 0.8 2.74
25 brady2k 27 22 81.5% 261 3 0 2 0.33 0.14 0.43 0.33 0.67 0.8 2.7
26 Fred.P.Soft 22 19 86.4% 225 2 0 0 0 0 0.79 0.67 0.67 0.4 2.53
27 ak4niner 23 19 82.6% 294 3 0 4 0 0.07 0.1 0.33 0.67 0.8 1.97
- Average 29 22 75.9% 259 3 0 3 0.5 0.51 0.45 0.33 0.67 1 3.46

General Musings

Much like the team we love and watch, we didn't do so hot last week. Clearly, we're just as vulnerable to the nefarious influence of Freddy P. Soft. The average predicted completion percentage was a staggering 75.9%, and the average predicted TDs was 3. Oops? I'll be very curious to see how the pendulum swings in the predictions this week.

It had to happen eventually, and this happened to be the week: Alex Smith finally threw a pick. That dinged almost everyone 0.33 points right off the bat. The main category that hurt people this week was predicted TDs, followed by completion percentage. Pass attempts also gave people trouble, due to the 49ers flinging the rock around a bit more last week.

Rushing yards this week were solid at 26 yards. We actually had a six-way tie for the rushing yards prediction. 22 yards was a popular guess, submitted by Fred.P.Soft, Aaron Emerson, Ni9er, Ador08, and mountaindew77. I was a rebel with my 30 yards guess, which was also 4 yards off, good to gain me a piece of the tie.

Season-to-Date Leaderboard

Rank Name Wk 01 Wk 02 Wk 03 Total Average
1 Desert Dog Runner 3.99 5.41 4.55 13.95 4.65
2 YellowMelonCust 4.77 5.01 4.08 13.86 4.62
3 Katydid 4.07 5.32 3.85 13.24 4.41
4 rlott#42 4.57 5.21 3.13 12.91 4.30
5 Average 4.16 5.22 3.46 12.84 4.28
6 The RealFakename 4.28 4.94 3.56 12.78 4.26
7 Aaron Emerson 4.26 4.95 3.36 12.57 4.19
8 whistlingmountain 3.24 4.59 4.13 11.96 3.99
9 sik49er 4.45 4.28 3.18 11.91 3.97
10 MRandolph 4.42 4.30 3.18 11.90 3.97
11 49erLou 3.65 4.60 3.50 11.75 3.92
12 Drew Kerr 2.81 4.79 3.41 11.01 3.67
13 SH0ck-D 3.50 3.83 3.67 11.00 3.67
14 Ni9er 3.44 3.82 3.73 10.99 3.66
15 Fred.P.Soft 3.84 4.30 2.53 10.67 3.56
16 bradyk2 3.47 4.43 2.70 10.60 3.53
17 liberty_JAC 3.46 3.26 3.35 10.07 3.36
18 16to80fan 4.86 - 4.18 9.04 4.52
19 AzNiner 4.48 4.32 0.00 8.80 4.40
20 Delmuir - 4.61 4.14 8.75 4.38
21 Bravedown50 4.84 - 3.20 8.04 4.02
22 Stupifyed 2.37 5.03 - 7.40 3.70
23 Edggy - 4.22 2.80 7.02 3.51
24 San Fran Niners - 4.23 2.74 6.97 3.49
25 sanluisobispo49ers - 3.08 2.92 6.00 3.00
26 ak4niner 3.97 - 1.97 5.94 2.97
27 Touchdown.....LaMichael James!!! 5.15 - - 5.15 5.15
28 driddo5k - 5.14 - 5.14 5.14
29 reedkrase - 5.06 - 5.06 5.06
30 oldfoggy - 4.71 - 4.71 4.71
31 mrg80 4.54 - - 4.54 4.54
32 Rhardin - 4.49 - 4.49 4.49
33 JDilla415 - 3.97 - 3.97 3.97
34 leaping_larry 3.95 - - 3.95 3.95
35 msclemons67 3.77 - - 3.77 3.77
36 Naguabo 3.72 - - 3.72 3.72
37 Dilon 3.59 - - 3.59 3.59
38 blue42red30 - - 3.57 3.57 3.57
39 riderless 3.31 - - 3.31 3.31
40 mountaindew77 - - 3.25 3.25 3.25
41 Little Bobby Tables - - 2.92 2.92 2.92
42 Ador08 - - 2.87 2.87 2.87
43 danknerd49 1.67 - - 1.67 1.67

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Niners Nation

You must be a member of Niners Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Niners Nation. You should read them.

Join Niners Nation

You must be a member of Niners Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Niners Nation. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker