Alex Smith Stat Prediction Game: Week One

How well do you know the 49ers quarterback? Guess Alex Smith's passing statistics for the Packers game tomorrow. Pat Willie started up this contest towards the end of last season, and I thought it would be fun to continue it this year, with a few rule and scoring changes.

The rules are simple. Guess Alex Smith's passing stat line (rush attempts, yards, and TDs will not be counted, unlike last year) for the upcoming game using the following format in the comments below.







Feel free to revise your numbers all the way up to game time. I'll use only the most recent guess. If you want to update your numbers, please reply to your original comment with the revised guess.

The scoring is based on a 6-point system, with each of the following metrics accounting for a point: Attempts, Completion % (calculated from Cmp/Att numbers), Yards, TDs, INTs, and Sacks. It's a bit dry, but for the curious, here is how each of the metrics are scored:

Attempts: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualAtt - AttGuessed) / 12)

Completion %: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualComp% - (CompGuessed/AttGuessed * 100)) / 15)

Yards: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualYards - YardsGuessed) / 100)

TDs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualTDs - TDsGuessed) / 3)

INTs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualINTs - INTsGuessed) / 3)

Sacks: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualSacks - SacksGuessed) / 5)

The six scoring categories are added up to produce a composite score. The maximum that can be scored is 6 points; the minimum is 0. I'll keep a running leaderboard throughout the season if there's enough participation, along with posting the weekly results.

For the curious, here is how opposing QBs on the road did against GB in GB home games.

QB Sacks Comp Att Pct Yds Yds / Att TD INT Rate Year Rate
Drew Brees 3 32 49 65.3 419 8.6 3 0 112.5 110.6
Kyle Orton 1 22 32 68.8 273 8.5 3 3 87.1 77.8
Sam Bradford 3 29 45 64.4 328 7.3 0 1 76.9 70.5
Christian Ponder 3 16 34 47.1 190 5.6 0 1 52.3 70.1
Josh Freeman 2 28 38 73.7 342 9 2 2 96.6 74.6
Carson Palmer 1 24 42 57.1 247 5.9 1 4 42.6 80.9
Josh McCown 0 19 28 67.9 242 8.6 1 2 76.8 68.3
Matthew Stafford 2 36 59 61 520 8.8 5 2 103.8 97.2
Average 1.9 26 41 63 320 7.8 1.9 1.9 83.4 81.3

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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