FanPost

Alex Smith Stat Prediction Game: Week One

How well do you know the 49ers quarterback? Guess Alex Smith's passing statistics for the Packers game tomorrow. Pat Willie started up this contest towards the end of last season, and I thought it would be fun to continue it this year, with a few rule and scoring changes.

The rules are simple. Guess Alex Smith's passing stat line (rush attempts, yards, and TDs will not be counted, unlike last year) for the upcoming game using the following format in the comments below.

Attempts:

Completions:

Yards:

TDs:

INTs:

Sacks:

Feel free to revise your numbers all the way up to game time. I'll use only the most recent guess. If you want to update your numbers, please reply to your original comment with the revised guess.

The scoring is based on a 6-point system, with each of the following metrics accounting for a point: Attempts, Completion % (calculated from Cmp/Att numbers), Yards, TDs, INTs, and Sacks. It's a bit dry, but for the curious, here is how each of the metrics are scored:

Attempts: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualAtt - AttGuessed) / 12)

Completion %: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualComp% - (CompGuessed/AttGuessed * 100)) / 15)

Yards: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualYards - YardsGuessed) / 100)

TDs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualTDs - TDsGuessed) / 3)

INTs: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualINTs - INTsGuessed) / 3)

Sacks: 1 - Min(1, Abs(ActualSacks - SacksGuessed) / 5)

The six scoring categories are added up to produce a composite score. The maximum that can be scored is 6 points; the minimum is 0. I'll keep a running leaderboard throughout the season if there's enough participation, along with posting the weekly results.

For the curious, here is how opposing QBs on the road did against GB in GB home games.

QB Sacks Comp Att Pct Yds Yds / Att TD INT Rate Year Rate
Drew Brees 3 32 49 65.3 419 8.6 3 0 112.5 110.6
Kyle Orton 1 22 32 68.8 273 8.5 3 3 87.1 77.8
Sam Bradford 3 29 45 64.4 328 7.3 0 1 76.9 70.5
Christian Ponder 3 16 34 47.1 190 5.6 0 1 52.3 70.1
Josh Freeman 2 28 38 73.7 342 9 2 2 96.6 74.6
Carson Palmer 1 24 42 57.1 247 5.9 1 4 42.6 80.9
Josh McCown 0 19 28 67.9 242 8.6 1 2 76.8 68.3
Matthew Stafford 2 36 59 61 520 8.8 5 2 103.8 97.2
Average 1.9 26 41 63 320 7.8 1.9 1.9 83.4 81.3

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Niners Nation

You must be a member of Niners Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Niners Nation. You should read them.

Join Niners Nation

You must be a member of Niners Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Niners Nation. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker