Way back when, before the season started, I made some predictions, including what the regular season records were as well as who made the playoffs. With the 49ers having a bye week, I decided to look at my pre-season predictions and compare them to what actually happened.
Guess what; my predictions sucked. Not really a surprise since I hold the consecutive whammy record. To compound on my self-degradation, I am going to post my feeble analysis here for all to see (and laugh).
Prediction 1: The Jets will fall apart this year; locker room woes will show on the field.
I was dead-on on this. Congrats to the Jets for coining a new term: Butt-Fumble.
Prediction 2: San Diego QB Phillip Rivers gets hurt in week 1.
This was my odd out there prediction. Epic fail, kind of like the Chargers season.
Prediction 3: Nicks of the Giants will be hurt longer than expected.
I honestly don't remember. Can someone help me out with this?
Prediction 4: The Saints issues will haunt them a good part of the season.
Seven and Nine. Worst defense by far in the league. Chalk this up to a good prediction.
Prediction 5: Peyton Manning is good to go and will play most (if not all) of the season.
Not only is the guy playing, but he's showing his football smarts and leadership. He's the reason the Broncos are the #1 seed in the AFC. I think the Broncos would have made the playoffs without him, but he nudged them up.
Prediction 6: The Rams don't have injury woes this year.
Well, comparing them to last year, this was true. However, Amendola was hurt on and off. Minor success.
Now, onto the Records.
Wow those Bills were disappointing. I thought their D would start playing to their potential. I guess their potential was very low. Patriots played well, as usual. I thought they would falter just enough to miss. Dolphins were a pleasant surprise.
Well, what do you know...another right prediction. Texans did what I thought they would do. Colts were the big surprise; hard to be mad considering the whole head coach story. I didn't expect the Titans to regress like they did, and Jacksonville still is cruddy.
Broncos are my third correct pick. Otherwise the only thing I can say is I predicted a tie this year! (Yeah yeah, wrong teams, but I still predicted it. Name one other who did...) I was wrong here on so many levels.
The records were close; I just had the teams wrong. Thanks RGIII and Alfred Morris; you messed up my predictions. Giants played a few more good games than I thought. Dallas...well...thank you for making me wrong.
This one was a bit surprising. The Bears had all the elements to win except that pesky O-line thing. Third place with a 10-6 record...what a bum deal for Lovie Smith. Packers looked bad at the beginning, but got in a groove to win the division. (Hey, I got their record right!) I honestly didn't expect AP to do as well as he did; Vikings have had a great season. And to the Lions...may the Schwartz be with you. (I expected a regression, but not THAT much.)
Ok, I admit it. I was wrong about the Falcons. To the Falcon fans, I apologize for doubting you. I got two teams right (Bucs and Saints). I thought the Panthers were ready to contend; maybe next year.
See, I told you I got those ties predicted! I also predicted the Cardinals record, and that we would win the division. My sleeper pick (the Rams) didn't make it to the playoffs, but they had a good rebuilding season. As far as the Seahawks, I was assuming at the time Flynn was going to start. Whoops.
Playoff teams: I predicted 4 of 6 AFC teams, and 2 of 6 NFC teams. My hits were the Broncos (picked right seed), Bengals, Texans (picked right seed), Ravens, 49ers, and Packers. My misses were the Bills, Raiders, Bears, Panthers, Cowboys and Rams.
Overall, for my first year of putting out the predictions for everyone to look at, I think I did OK. I did learn a few things though.
- Records are very hard to predict. You may predict events, but it will affect the records less than you thought.
- If you're going to predict how long an injury occurs, at least pay attention!
- Never predict based off of an oddball injury.
- The term butt-fumble.
I have enjoyed my first full year of being a member of Niners Nation. Thank you all for your insight; it has helped me to be a better fan.
(And ESPN, if you want to hire me for six figures for my awesome prediction skills, Fooch can get you my email.)