On 25 snaps, including penalties, Colin Kaepernick netted 21.8 expected points added. That's 0.872 per play - much better than anyone else in the league. That includes the deep pass interference call, the Iupati Hold, and the kneel-down. If I exclude those, its still 20.89 in EPA on 22 plays. 0.95/play. This is so dominant that its really unprecedented. Also, to naysayers who are saying 'c'mon, this is Jacksonville and Tennessee!' -- well, Kap far outperformed any other QB's performance against Jacksonville, and vastly outperformed other quarterback performances against Tennessee...who has a top 10 defense by many metrics.
And just as a refresher, EPA is
Expected Points Added (EPA) – The difference between the Expected Points (EP) at the start of a play and the EP at the end of they play. EPA is the measure of a play’s impact on the score of the game. An individual player’s EPA is the sum of the EPA of the plays in which that player was directly involved. Being directly involved is defined as an offensive player who ran, threw, or kicked the ball, was targeted by a pass, or flagged for a penalty.
Below is Kap's Play-by-play with EPA included.
|1||14:24||2||7||SFO 27||Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Bruce Miller for 43 yards (tackle by Josh Evans)||3.18|
|1||14:00||1||10||JAX 30||Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short left intended for Kyle Williams||-0.55|
|1||13:15||3||5||JAX 25||Colin Kaepernick up the middle for 4 yards (tackle by SenDerrick Marks)||-0.8|
|1||11:55||1||10||JAX 19||Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete deep right intended for Kyle Williams||-0.56|
|1||6:50||1||10||SFO 20||Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete deep left intended for Anquan Boldin. Penalty on Will Blackmon: Defensive Pass Interference 31 yards (no play)||2.04|
|1||5:57||2||9||JAX 48||Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short middle intended for Bruce Miller||-0.7|
|1||5:52||3||9||JAX 48||Colin Kaepernick for 9 yards (tackle by Mike Harris)||1.76|
|1||4:39||2||9||JAX 38||Colin Kaepernick right end for 4 yards (tackle by Dwayne Gratz)||-0.17|
|1||3:53||3||5||JAX 34||Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Anquan Boldin for 21 yards (tackle by Dwayne Gratz)||2.3|
|1||2:44||2||9||JAX 12||Colin Kaepernick left end for 12 yards touchdown||2.78|
|1||0:12||3||1||SFO 37||Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Anquan Boldin for 4 yards (tackle by Dwayne Gratz)||0.9|
|2||14:47||1||10||JAX 34||Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short right intended for Anquan Boldin (defended by Alan Ball)||-0.54|
|2||14:03||3||9||JAX 33||Colin Kaepernick left tackle for 17 yards (tackle by Paul Posluszny)||2.3|
|2||13:18||1||10||JAX 16||Colin Kaepernick pass complete short left to Anquan Boldin for 14 yards (tackle by Josh Evans)||2.23|
|2||11:58||2||2||JAX 2||Colin Kaepernick pass complete short left to Vernon Davis for 2 yards touchdown||1.28|
|2||10:27||1||10||SFO 37||Colin Kaepernick pass complete deep right to Vernon Davis for 31 yards (tackle by Josh Evans)||2.05|
|2||9:23||2||9||JAX 31||Colin Kaepernick pass complete short left to Vernon Davis for 19 yards (tackle by Jonathan Cyprien)||1.74|
|2||8:00||2||7||JAX 9||Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short left intended for Vernon Davis (defended by Alan Ball)||-0.94|
|2||7:56||3||7||JAX 9||Colin Kaepernick left end for 9 yards touchdown||3.3|
|2||6:21||1||10||SFO 27||Colin Kaepernick pass complete short left to Kyle Williams for 7 yards (tackle by Russell Allen)||0.4|
|2||5:03||1||10||SFO 44||Colin Kaepernick up the middle for 11 yards (tackle by Paul Posluszny). Penalty on Mike Iupati: Offensive Holding 10 yards (no play)||-0.66|
|2||3:51||2||25||SFO 29||Colin Kaepernick pass complete short middle to Frank Gore for 6 yards (tackle by Paul Posluszny and Geno Hayes)||0.15|
|2||3:06||3||19||SFO 35||Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short middle intended for Anquan Boldin (defended by Tyson Alualu)||-0.48|
|2||0:09||1||10||SFO 3||Colin Kaepernick for -1 yards||-0.47|
|3||5:21||1||10||SFO 17||Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Anquan Boldin for 17 yards (tackle by Paul Posluszny and Alan Ball)||1.26|
I cannot imagine what we will look like with Manningham in place of Kyle Williams after the bye - expect KW to be de-activated and LaMichael James to assume PR/KR duties (unless there's a trade in the next 48 hours). Expect Vance McDonald to get some reps over the Bye as well.