Like all of you, I think that the Seahawks are a mediocre team on the road away from their engineered home advantage...and desperately hoped for them to be exposed last night. As a result, its critical that we win the division to prevent a trip to seattle.
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss
If we beat the Seahawks and then we both win out and both finish 14-2, the first four tiebreakers won't apply: head-to-head split, same division record, same common game record, same conference record. It then goes to Strength of Victory.
Strength of Victory is the strength of schedule of the teams you've beaten. Since the 49ers play the Packers and Redskins, while the Seahawks play the Vikings and Giants, we will win SOV. I don't really envision a scenario where NYG/MIN (3-12) end up with a better record than GB/WAS (7-7).
If, for some reason, there were to be a tie in SOV, we would skip Tiebreaker #6 (SOS) because its identical to SOV. It would then jump to #7, "Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed." This NOT Net points. what you do is rank the 16 NFC teams by points scored, and rank the 16 NFC teams by points allowed. the best combined ranking wins. Currently, the 49ers are 2nd in points scored and 4th in points allowed; the Seahawks are 6th in points scored and 3rd in points allowed. So, (2 + 4)
Finally, if we win out, we have tiebreakers over Green Bay and New Orleans for the #1 seed.
Summary: For the most part, the 49ers control their own destiny -- do not despair. It would take a collapse of the packers and redskins and a turnaround by the giants and vikings to lose the #5 tiebreaker.