FanPost

Advanced Stats - How did our playmakers do (HOU @ SF)?

Its Tuesday, which means that expected points added and win probability added (EPA and WPA) have been tallied for the 49ers-Texans game. I will go through the performances of our offensive skill players that got touches in the game, starting with Kap.

So, as a refresher, according to AdvancedNFLStats.com EPA is

Expected Points Added (EPA) – The difference between the Expected Points (EP) at the start of a play and the EP at the end of they play. EPA is the measure of a play’s impact on the score of the game. An individual player’s EPA is the sum of the EPA of the plays in which that player was directly involved. Being directly involved is defined as an offensive player who ran, threw, or kicked the ball, was targeted by a pass, or flagged for a penalty.

I wish I had play-by-play WPA, but I don't, but WPA is

Win Probability Added (WPA) – The difference between a team’s Win Probability (WP) at the start of a play and the WP at the end of the play. WPA is the measure of a play’s impact on the outcome of a game. An individual player’s WPA is the sum of the WPA of the plays in which that player was directly involved. Being directly involved is defined as an offensive player who ran, threw, or kicked the ball, was targeted by a pass, or flagged for a penalty. Defensive players are credited for WPA when they tackle or sack the ball carrier, are credited with an assisted tackle or sack, cause a fumble, defend a pass, or are flagged for a penalty.

So, Kaepernick ended up with an EPA of 8.87, which includes the defensive holding call in the middle of the third quarter. His EPA/play, which is probably the most important stat, was a whopping 0.49. Keep in mind that this is higher than in the game vs. Green Bay: basically, Kap made no mistakes and completed critical third down passes. If I remove the Defensive Holding Call, his EPA drops to 7.6 and his EPA/play to 0.445. Below is his play-by-play:

Quarter Time Down ToGo Location Detail EPA
1 7:28 1 10 SFO 35 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short right intended for Jonathan Baldwin -0.55
1 6:44 3 10 SFO 35 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short middle to Vernon Davis for 13 yards (tackle by Ed Reed) 2.09
1 6:01 1 10 SFO 48 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short left to Anquan Boldin for 12 yards (tackle by Johnathan Joseph) 0.79
1 5:04 1 10 HTX 27 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete deep right intended for Anquan Boldin -0.55
1 4:19 3 5 HTX 22 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Vernon Davis for 11 yards (tackle by Danieal Manning) 1.64
1 2:22 3 9 HTX 10 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Anquan Boldin for 9 yards (tackle by D.J. Swearinger) 3.67
2 10:55 2 14 SFO 41 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short right intended for Anquan Boldin -0.67
2 10:51 3 14 SFO 41 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short right intended for Anquan Boldin (defended by Kareem Jackson) -0.82
3 15:00 1 10 SFO 20 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete deep right intended for Vernon Davis -0.55
3 14:55 2 10 SFO 20 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short left intended for Anquan Boldin (defended by Jared Crick) -0.69
3 14:51 3 10 SFO 20 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete deep right intended for Jonathan Baldwin -1.07
3 7:22 3 6 SFO 45 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short right intended for Anquan Boldin (defended by Brice McCain). Penalty on Brice McCain: Defensive Holding 5 yards (no play) 1.3
3 5:29 2 15 HTX 20 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short left intended for Vernon Davis (defended by Jared Crick) -0.67
3 5:25 3 15 HTX 20 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete deep middle intended for Vernon Davis (defended by Danieal Manning) -0.56
4 15:00 2 9 SFO 32 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Bruce Miller for 4 yards (tackle by Darryl Sharpton) -0.17
4 14:25 3 5 SFO 36 Colin Kaepernick pass complete deep left to Vernon Davis for 64 yards touchdown 6.57

Kap's biggest play was his last. ESPN QBR, which is loosely based on EPA, gave him a solid 72.3 for the week. Kap's WPA for the game -- again I don't have play-by-play WPA -- was an excellent 0.19, i.e. Kap's play was worth 20% of a win. ** The reason I want WPA play by play so bad is that it will allow me to 'control' for garbage time.

Moving on to running backs

Gore:

EPA = -1.27

EPA/p = -0.075

WPA = .01

Hunter:

EPA = -.59

EPA/p = -.12

WPA = .02

Dixon:

EPA = -.62

EPA/p = -.124

WPA = -.01

James:

EPA = 2.15

EPA/p = 0.5375

WPA = 0.00

(His Kick Return in the third quarter was worth 0.33 *beyond what a touch-back would have yielded)

Williams:

EPA = 0.86

EPA/p = 0.86

Receivers, per-target (WPA not included because WPA does not subtract for incompletes)

Boldin:

EPA = 3.03

EPA/p = 0.433

*1.73 and .29 without defensive hold

Davis:

EPA = 8.52

EPA/p = 1.42(!)

Baldwin:

EPA = -1.62

EPA/p = -.81

Miller:

EPA = -.17

EPA/p = -.17



Takeaways: First, Kaepernick had a darned good game - there should be no complaints. Second, running backs have low EPA/p generally - Hunter and James are far too erratic in EPA/p by game to be given more carriers at this point. Third, there is zero passing production away from Boldin and VD - Kap's EPA/play to Boldin and Davis was 0.89, for a total of 11.55 EPA. We need Crabtree and Manningham back, ASAP. If teams can take both out of the game and stop the run game, we lose. I think we lost the IND game because we forced the pass when Indy was giving away the run, but this was also a factor.


This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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