FanPost

What were the most pivotal plays in the CAR@SF Game (read -- it ain't all Kap's fault)?

Bob Stanton-USA TODAY Sports


Now that I can obtain play-by-play win probability data from Pro-Football Reference, we can look at which plays actually changed the game the most. There are two ways to look at it:

- Win Probability Added

- Win Probability-adjusted Expected Points Added (i.e. Clutch-adjusted)

Now, before we begin, I want to be clear that I do not think that Kap had a good or even average game. It was not good. But when you look at the plays that cost us the game, its sacks, the Hunter Fumble, and Cam Newton converting third downs that cost us the most. Here is the play-by-play sorted by WPA:

Q Time Down ToGo Pos Play Description WPA
4 1:02 1 10 SFO 20 SF Colin Kaepernick sacked by Greg Hardy for -6 yards -0.249
3 1:55 2 1 CAR 39 SF Kendall Hunter right guard for -6 yards (tackle by Thomas Davis). Kendall Hunter fumbles (forced by Thomas Davis) recovered by Quintin Mikell at CAR-45 (tackle by Colin Kaepernick). Penalty on Alex Boone: Offensive Holding (Declined) -0.228
4 2:18 3 8 CAR 34 Cam Newton pass complete short left to Steve Smith for 9 yards -0.206
4 10:10 4 13 SFO 35 Graham Gano 53 yard field goal good -0.143
4 4:02 1 10 SFO 15 SF Colin Kaepernick sacked by Luke Kuechly for -9 yards -0.139
4 8:10 3 7 CAR 40 Cam Newton pass complete short left to Ted Ginn Jr. for 11 yards -0.134
4 0:37 2 16 SFO 14 SF Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete intended for Mario Manningham is intercepted by Drayton Florence at SFO-42 and returned for 2 yards -0.125
4 9:08 3 7 SFO 15 SF Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete deep right intended for Anquan Boldin -0.099
4 12:42 3 6 SFO 40 Cam Newton pass complete short right to Steve Smith for 8 yards (tackle by Tramaine Brock) -0.099
4 2:45 3 13 SFO 12 SF Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete deep left intended for Kyle Williams -0.094
3 6:38 2 10 CAR 44 Cam Newton pass complete deep middle to Steve Smith for 19 yards (tackle by Donte Whitner) -0.086
3 8:40 3 5 CAR 16 Cam Newton pass complete short middle to Mike Tolbert for 17 yards (tackle by Eric Reid) -0.082
4 14:52 3 15 SFO 39 SF Colin Kaepernick pass complete short middle to Mario Manningham for 14 yards (tackle by Thomas Davis and Drayton Florence). Penalty on Anquan Boldin: Offensive Pass Interference 10 yards (no play) -0.072
2 1:59 1 10 SFO 27 DeAngelo Williams up the middle for 27 yards touchdown -0.068
4 5:19 2 10 SFO 1 SF Frank Gore left guard for no gain (tackle by Greg Hardy) -0.061
2 12:33 1 10 SFO 32 SF Colin Kaepernick sacked by A.J. Klein for -14 yards. Penalty on Colin Kaepernick: Face Mask (15 Yards) (Declined) -0.060
4 13:47 4 29 SFO 25 SF Andy Lee punts 44 yards returned by Ted Ginn Jr. for 25 yards (tackle by Michael Wilhoite) -0.059
2 1:04 1 10 SFO 32 SF Colin Kaepernick sacked by Michael Mitchell and Charles Johnson for -8 yards -0.057
3 11:17 2 1 SFO 38 SF Colin Kaepernick left end for -6 yards (tackle by Greg Hardy) -0.055
4 3:29 2 19 SFO 6 SF Colin Kaepernick pass complete short left to Mario Manningham for 6 yards (tackle by Captain Munnerlyn) -0.052
4 9:15 2 7 SFO 15 SF Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short left intended for Vance McDonald -0.049
1 7:40 3 1 SFO 35 SF Adam Snyder for -1 yards (tackle by A.J. Klein) -0.045
3 13:36 1 10 CAR 31 Cam Newton pass complete short middle to Brandon LaFell for 16 yards (tackle by Tarell Brown) -0.044
4 1:10 4 7 CAR 46 Brad Nortman punts 54 yards touchback -0.043
4 15:00 1 15 SFO 39 SF Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short left intended for Mario Manningham -0.042
1 9:18 4 21 CAR 11 Brad Nortman punts 65 yards returned by LaMichael James for 2 yards (tackle by Josh Thomas) -0.042
1 11:28 3 2 CAR 33 SF Frank Gore right tackle for -1 yards (tackle by Charles Johnson) -0.041
2 4:45 3 7 CAR 23 Cam Newton pass complete short middle to Brandon LaFell for 17 yards (tackle by Patrick Willis) -0.041
4 5:25 1 10 SFO 1 SF Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short right intended for Bruce Miller -0.040
3 14:18 2 8 CAR 22 Cam Newton pass complete short left to Steve Smith for 9 yards (tackle by Tarell Brown) -0.038
2 1:59 SFO 27 Graham Gano kicks extra point good -0.035
1 3:33 3 4 CAR 45 Cam Newton right tackle for 5 yards (tackle by Ray McDonald) -0.034
4 14:58 2 15 SFO 39 SF Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete deep middle intended for Vance McDonald (defended by Luke Kuechly) -0.033
3 8:06 1 10 CAR 33 Cam Newton pass complete short middle to Domenik Hixon for 9 yards (tackle by Donte Whitner) -0.031
1 2:23 1 10 SFO 24 SF Colin Kaepernick sacked by Dwan Edwards for -4 yards -0.030
4 2:12 1 10 CAR 43 Jonathan Stewart left tackle for 6 yards (tackle by Donte Whitner). Jonathan Stewart fumbles (forced by Donte Whitner) recovered by Mike Tolbert at CAR-49 -0.029
3 10:44 3 7 SFO 32 SF Penalty on Anthony Davis: False Start 5 yards (no play) -0.027
2 2:12 2 3 SFO 41 Cam Newton pass complete short middle to Greg Olsen for 14 yards (tackle by Donte Whitner) -0.026
2 1:17 2 1 SFO 29 SF Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short right intended for Kendall Hunter (defended by Drayton Florence) -0.025
4 10:10 CAR 35 Graham Gano kicks off 71 yards returned by Anthony Dixon for 18 yards (tackle by Jordan Senn) -0.025
2 3:29 2 8 CAR 42 Cam Newton pass complete short left to Brandon LaFell for 10 yards (tackle by Carlos Rogers) -0.024
2 9:54 2 7 CAR 46 Cam Newton pass complete short right to Ted Ginn Jr. for 8 yards (tackle by Carlos Rogers) -0.024
1 5:37 3 1 CAR 36 Mike Tolbert up the middle for 3 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) -0.024
1 1:06 3 9 SFO 25 SF Colin Kaepernick up the middle for 5 yards (tackle by Luke Kuechly) -0.023
2 14:14 3 7 CAR 27 SF Colin Kaepernick pass complete short left to Vernon Davis for 2 yards (tackle by Melvin White) -0.021
2 0:36 2 18 SFO 24 SF Colin Kaepernick left end for 1 yard (tackle by Captain Munnerlyn) -0.021
4 14:23 3 25 SFO 29 SF Colin Kaepernick sacked by Charles Johnson for -4 yards -0.021
1 9:07 1 10 SFO 26 SF LaMichael James left tackle for -1 yards (tackle by Luke Kuechly) -0.017
2 7:19 3 5 CAR 6 SF Frank Gore right guard for 4 yards (tackle by Charles Johnson) -0.016
2 14:21 2 7 CAR 27 SF Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short left intended for Mario Manningham -0.016
1 13:06 1 10 SFO 42 SF Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete deep right intended for Anquan Boldin (defended by Captain Munnerlyn) -0.015
2 11:58 2 24 SFO 18 SF Frank Gore right guard for 1 yard (tackle by A.J. Klein) -0.015
4 15:00 1 10 SFO 44 SF Penalty on Anquan Boldin: False Start 5 yards (no play) -0.014
3 4:29 3 15 SFO 42 Cam Newton pass complete short left to Steve Smith for 12 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman and Donte Whitner) -0.014
3 10:16 3 12 SFO 27 SF Colin Kaepernick pass complete short middle to Frank Gore for 10 yards (tackle by Luke Kuechly) -0.013
3 0:20 4 3 SFO 48 Brad Nortman punts 35 yards out of bounds -0.013
2 7:26 2 5 CAR 6 SF Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short right intended for Vernon Davis (defended by Michael Mitchell) -0.012
4 9:59 1 10 SFO 12 SF Frank Gore left guard for 3 yards (tackle by A.J. Klein) -0.012
1 15:00 1 10 SFO 20 SF Frank Gore up the middle for 1 yard (tackle by Star Lotulelei) -0.011
1 10:51 SFO 35 SF Phil Dawson kicks off 66 yards returned by Ted Ginn Jr. for 23 yards (tackle by Michael Wilhoite) -0.011
3 15:00 SFO 35 SF Phil Dawson kicks off 65 yards touchback -0.011
2 12:43 4 3 CAR 27 Brad Nortman punts 59 yards returned by LaMichael James for 18 yards (tackle by Chase Blackburn) -0.010
2 2:46 1 10 SFO 48 DeAngelo Williams right guard for 7 yards (tackle by Tony Jerod-Eddie and Donte Whitner) -0.009
1 4:55 1 10 CAR 39 Jonathan Stewart right guard for 6 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) -0.008
2 13:38 SFO 35 SF Phil Dawson kicks off 65 yards touchback -0.007
2 13:28 2 10 CAR 20 Jonathan Stewart up the middle for 7 yards (tackle by Justin Smith) -0.006
2 6:20 SFO 35 SF Phil Dawson kicks off 64 yards returned by Ted Ginn Jr. for 19 yards (tackle by Darryl Morris) -0.005
1 12:22 1 10 CAR 41 SF Frank Gore right tackle for 3 yards (tackle by Luke Kuechly) -0.004
3 7:24 2 1 CAR 42 Jonathan Stewart right guard for 2 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) -0.004
2 6:21 4 1 CAR 2 SF Adam Snyder for no gain. Penalty on Colin Kaepernick: Delay of Game 5 yards (no play) -0.003
2 15:00 1 10 CAR 30 SF Frank Gore left guard for 3 yards (tackle by Luke Kuechly) -0.003
3 9:25 1 10 CAR 11 Jonathan Stewart up the middle for 5 yards (tackle by Justin Smith) -0.003
3 2:31 1 5 CAR 43 SF Adam Snyder for 4 yards (tackle by Luke Kuechly) -0.001
1 11:50 2 7 CAR 38 SF Colin Kaepernick pass complete short left to Anquan Boldin for 5 yards (tackle by Melvin White) -0.001
2 10:41 4 18 SFO 24 SF Andy Lee punts 52 yards returned by Ted Ginn Jr. for 19 yards (tackle by Raymond Ventrone) -0.001
1 1:51 2 14 SFO 20 SF Frank Gore right tackle for 5 yards (tackle by Dwan Edwards) -0.001
1 15:00 CAR 35 SF Graham Gano kicks off 73 yards touchback 0.000
1 6:45 1 10 CAR 27 Mike Tolbert up the middle for 4 yards (tackle by Glenn Dorsey and Ahmad Brooks) 0.000
2 6:20 4 6 CAR 7 SF Phil Dawson 25 yard field goal good 0.000
1 6:05 2 6 CAR 31 Cam Newton pass complete short left to Brandon LaFell for 5 yards (tackle by Tarell Brown) 0.001
4 5:34 4 2 SFO 41 Brad Nortman punts 40 yards 0.003
3 5:54 1 10 SFO 37 Jonathan Stewart left guard for 3 yards (tackle by Patrick Willis) 0.004
2 10:31 1 10 CAR 43 DeAngelo Williams left guard for 3 yards (tackle by Ray McDonald) 0.004
4 10:48 3 19 SFO 41 Cam Newton pass complete short left to Steve Smith for 6 yards (tackle by Tarell Brown) 0.004
2 8:10 1 10 CAR 11 SF Adam Snyder for 5 yards (tackle by Greg Hardy) 0.004
2 5:31 2 10 CAR 20 Cam Newton right guard for 3 yards (tackle by Justin Smith) 0.006
3 1:47 1 10 CAR 45 DeAngelo Williams up the middle for 3 yards (tackle by Demarcus Dobbs) 0.007
2 4:04 1 10 CAR 40 Cam Newton right end for 2 yards (tackle by Ahmad Brooks) 0.007
2 11:21 3 23 SFO 19 SF Colin Kaepernick pass complete short left to Kyle Williams for 5 yards (tackle by Thomas Davis) 0.007
3 1:04 2 7 CAR 48 DeAngelo Williams up the middle for 4 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) 0.008
4 8:51 1 10 CAR 37 Jonathan Stewart right tackle for 3 yards (tackle by Tony Jerod-Eddie) 0.008
1 6:59 4 2 SFO 34 SF Andy Lee punts 60 yards returned by Ted Ginn Jr. for 21 yards (tackle by C.J. Spillman) 0.009
4 6:59 2 11 50 Jonathan Stewart right tackle for 3 yards (tackle by Tony Jerod-Eddie) 0.010
3 15:00 1 10 CAR 20 DeAngelo Williams left guard for 2 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) 0.010
2 1:59 CAR 35 Graham Gano kicks off 65 yards touchback 0.010
4 13:29 2 10 SFO 44 Jonathan Stewart right tackle for 4 yards (tackle by Glenn Dorsey and Tony Jerod-Eddie) 0.010
2 6:10 1 10 CAR 20 Jonathan Stewart left tackle for no gain (tackle by Dan Skuta and Patrick Willis) 0.010
4 2:27 1 10 CAR 32 Jonathan Stewart right guard for 3 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) 0.010
2 13:34 1 10 CAR 20 Cam Newton pass incomplete short left intended for Steve Smith 0.013
1 10:34 2 10 CAR 22 DeAngelo Williams up the middle for 1 yard (tackle by Patrick Willis) 0.013
1 2:31 4 10 50 Brad Nortman punts 26 yards 0.013
1 10:39 1 10 CAR 22 Cam Newton pass incomplete short left intended for DeAngelo Williams (defended by Dan Skuta) 0.014
2 8:58 1 10 CAR 24 SF Adam Snyder for 13 yards (tackle by Thomas Davis) 0.014
1 2:50 1 10 50 Cam Newton pass incomplete short right intended for DeAngelo Williams 0.015
2 9:19 1 10 SFO 46 Cam Newton pass incomplete deep left intended for Brandon LaFell (defended by Tarell Brown) 0.015
1 0:17 1 10 CAR 41 SF Colin Kaepernick pass complete short middle to Frank Gore for 11 yards (tackle by A.J. Klein and Thomas Davis) 0.016
1 8:26 2 11 SFO 25 SF Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Mario Manningham for 10 yards (tackle by Captain Munnerlyn) 0.016
2 9:15 2 15 CAR 49 Cam Newton pass incomplete short left intended for Ted Ginn Jr. 0.017
3 12:07 4 12 CAR 45 Brad Nortman punts 41 yards returned by LaMichael James for 15 yards (tackle by Jason Williams) 0.018
1 13:43 1 10 SFO 31 SF Frank Gore left guard for 11 yards (tackle by Luke Kuechly) 0.018
1 4:16 2 4 CAR 45 Jonathan Stewart right end for no gain (tackle by Patrick Willis and Justin Smith) 0.019
2 9:16 2 10 SFO 46 Penalty on Cam Newton: Delay of Game 5 yards (no play) 0.019
1 2:45 2 10 50 Cam Newton pass incomplete short left intended for Greg Olsen 0.020
3 12:59 1 10 CAR 47 Cam Newton pass incomplete short left intended for Ted Ginn Jr. (defended by Ahmad Brooks) 0.021
3 8:47 2 5 CAR 16 Cam Newton pass incomplete short right intended for Brandon LaFell 0.022
3 6:41 1 10 CAR 44 Cam Newton pass incomplete short right intended for Steve Smith 0.023
2 1:52 1 10 SFO 20 SF Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Anquan Boldin for 9 yards (tackle by Luke Kuechly) 0.023
3 11:57 1 10 SFO 29 SF Colin Kaepernick pass complete short left to Anquan Boldin for 9 yards (tackle by Quintin Mikell) 0.024
4 2:00 2 4 CAR 49 Cam Newton right tackle for 2 yards (tackle by Glenn Dorsey) 0.027
2 13:38 4 5 CAR 25 SF Phil Dawson 43 yard field goal good 0.028
3 2:57 1 10 CAR 48 SF Penalty on Greg Hardy: Neutral Zone Infraction 5 yards (no play) 0.029
1 14:18 2 9 SFO 21 SF Colin Kaepernick pass complete short left to Bruce Miller for 10 yards (tackle by Luke Kuechly) 0.029
2 1:10 3 1 SFO 29 SF Kendall Hunter right end for 3 yards (tackle by Luke Kuechly) 0.029
1 2:40 3 10 50 Cam Newton pass incomplete deep left intended for Steve Smith 0.030
4 13:35 1 10 SFO 44 Cam Newton pass incomplete deep left intended for Greg Olsen (defended by Dan Skuta) 0.032
2 12:48 3 3 CAR 27 Cam Newton pass incomplete short left intended for Brandon LaFell (defended by Tarell Brown) 0.034
3 12:13 3 12 CAR 45 Cam Newton pass incomplete deep middle intended for Steve Smith 0.036
3 3:41 1 10 SFO 38 SF Adam Snyder for 14 yards (tackle by Michael Mitchell) 0.036
3 12:53 2 10 CAR 47 Cam Newton sacked by Ahmad Brooks for -2 yards 0.038
2 0:30 3 17 SFO 25 SF Kendall Hunter left guard for 11 yards (tackle by Charles Johnson and Michael Mitchell) 0.041
4 7:43 1 10 SFO 49 Cam Newton pass complete short left to Mike Tolbert for -1 yards (tackle by Patrick Willis) 0.041
1 9:52 3 9 CAR 23 Cam Newton sacked by Ahmad Brooks for -12 yards 0.041
4 12:13 1 10 SFO 32 DeAngelo Williams left end for -1 yards (tackle by Glenn Dorsey and Dan Skuta) 0.042
1 13:01 2 10 SFO 42 SF Frank Gore up the middle for 17 yards (tackle by Quintin Mikell) 0.042
4 8:15 2 7 CAR 40 Cam Newton pass incomplete short right intended for Brandon LaFell 0.046
1 10:51 4 3 CAR 34 SF Phil Dawson 52 yard field goal good 0.049
3 9:33 4 2 SFO 37 SF Andy Lee punts 52 yards returned by Brandon LaFell for no gain 0.052
4 6:17 3 8 SFO 47 Cam Newton left tackle for 6 yards (tackle by Craig Dahl) 0.059
4 9:03 4 7 SFO 15 SF Andy Lee punts 48 yards 0.072
3 0:24 3 3 SFO 48 Cam Newton pass incomplete short right intended for Mike Tolbert (defended by Demarcus Dobbs) 0.082
3 5:10 2 7 SFO 34 Cam Newton sacked by Patrick Willis for -8 yards 0.085
2 9:10 3 15 CAR 49 Cam Newton pass incomplete deep right intended for Steve Smith is intercepted by Tramaine Brock at SFO-35 and returned for 41 yards (tackle by Brandon LaFell) 0.096
4 4:39 3 10 SFO 1 SF Colin Kaepernick pass complete short left to Mario Manningham for 14 yards (tackle by Michael Mitchell) 0.101
4 2:21 2 7 CAR 35 Jonathan Stewart up the middle for -1 yards (tackle by Justin Smith and Dan Skuta) 0.104
3 0:13 1 10 SFO 13 SF Colin Kaepernick up the middle for 16 yards (tackle by Thomas Davis). Penalty on Quintin Mikell: Unnecessary Roughness 15 yards 0.105
4 11:30 2 11 SFO 33 Cam Newton sacked by Ahmad Brooks for -8 yards 0.110
1 0:28 4 4 SFO 30 SF Andy Lee punts 22 yards muffed catch by Drayton Florence recovered by Eric Reid and returned for no gain 0.111
4 2:35 4 13 SFO 12 SF Andy Lee punts 56 yards fair catch by Ted Ginn Jr. 0.125
3 3:46 4 3 SFO 30 Graham Gano 48 yard field goal no good 0.135
4 0:23 1 10 SFO 40 Cam Newton kneels for -1 yards 0.206
4 1:54 3 2 SFO 49 Geoff Hangartner for no gain. Geoff Hangartner fumbles recovered by Geoff Hangartner at CAR-46 0.254

As we can see, the most pivotal play in the game actually worked in our favor -- the fumble on 3rd and 2 (that was recovered by CAR) late in the game. After the punt, we still had a 38% chance of winning -- getting into field goal range and knocking it out. but the quick sack destroyed those chances, and a hasty INT ended them. We can also see that Kendall Hunter's fumble dropped us from an 83% chance of winning to a 60% chance of winning. We also see that the most devastating plays were sacks -- and failure to convert third and longs...we averaged 3rd and 10 on 3rd down yesterday, 3rd and 13 on passing downs. We completed one rushing 3rd down conversion out of 5. 1 passing conversion. We averaged 2nd and 10 on 2nd down. On average, we ended up punting or kicking a field goal on 4th and 9.

Here’s how I calculated clutch-adjustments:

1. I converted win probabilities into a new measure that looked at how far from 0.5 the game was. so,

=IF(WP>.5,WP/.5,1-WP/.5)

2. I then wrote an IF statement that took the largest of four numbers:

a. converted WP-before, WP-after, WP-change, or the largest converted WP that the play traversed (i.e. if the play flipped the game from one team to the other).

3. So what we end up with is that if a play occurs when the game is 50-50, it has a weight of 1. if it occurs when its 100-0, it has a weight of 0.

4. I then multiply those weights by EPA.

Now, let's look at clutch-adjusted plays:

Q Time Down ToGo Pos Play Description Clutch- Adjusted EPA
3 1:55 2 1 CAR 39 Kendall Hunter right guard for -6 yards (tackle by Thomas Davis). Kendall Hunter fumbles (forced by Thomas Davis) recovered by Quintin Mikell at CAR-45 (tackle by Colin Kaepernick). Penalty on Alex Boone: Offensive Holding (Declined) -4.02194
3 3:46 4 3 SFO 30 Graham Gano 48 yard field goal no good -2.2066
2 9:10 3 15 CAR 49 Cam Newton pass incomplete deep right intended for Steve Smith is intercepted by Tramaine Brock at SFO-35 and returned for 41 yards (tackle by Brandon LaFell) -1.8124
4 11:30 2 11 SFO 33 Cam Newton sacked by Ahmad Brooks for -8 yards -1.6356
4 1:54 3 2 SFO 49 Geoff Hangartner for no gain. Geoff Hangartner fumbles recovered by Geoff Hangartner at CAR-46 -1.63348
3 5:10 2 7 SFO 34 Cam Newton sacked by Patrick Willis for -8 yards -1.5664
3 0:24 3 3 SFO 48 Cam Newton pass incomplete short right intended for Mike Tolbert (defended by Demarcus Dobbs) -1.2028
4 9:08 3 7 SFO 15 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete deep right intended for Anquan Boldin -1.1371
2 12:33 1 10 SFO 32 Colin Kaepernick sacked by A.J. Klein for -14 yards. Penalty on Colin Kaepernick: Face Mask (15 Yards) (Declined) -1.11252
4 1:02 1 10 SFO 20 Colin Kaepernick sacked by Greg Hardy for -6 yards -1.10376
2 1:04 1 10 SFO 32 Colin Kaepernick sacked by Michael Mitchell and Charles Johnson for -8 yards -1.03356
4 4:02 1 10 SFO 15 Colin Kaepernick sacked by Luke Kuechly for -9 yards -1.02724
1 7:40 3 1 SFO 35 Adam Snyder for -1 yards (tackle by A.J. Klein) -0.9918
4 14:52 3 15 SFO 39 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short middle to Mario Manningham for 14 yards (tackle by Thomas Davis and Drayton Florence). Penalty on Anquan Boldin: Offensive Pass Interference 10 yards (no play) -0.99
1 11:28 3 2 CAR 33 Frank Gore right tackle for -1 yards (tackle by Charles Johnson) -0.96354
3 11:17 2 1 SFO 38 Colin Kaepernick left end for -6 yards (tackle by Greg Hardy) -0.9
4 13:47 4 29 SFO 25 Andy Lee punts 44 yards returned by Ted Ginn Jr. for 25 yards (tackle by Michael Wilhoite) -0.8645
1 9:52 3 9 CAR 23 Cam Newton sacked by Ahmad Brooks for -12 yards -0.8568
4 6:17 3 8 SFO 47 Cam Newton left tackle for 6 yards (tackle by Craig Dahl) -0.69388
3 12:53 2 10 CAR 47 Cam Newton sacked by Ahmad Brooks for -2 yards -0.69312
4 12:13 1 10 SFO 32 DeAngelo Williams left end for -1 yards (tackle by Glenn Dorsey and Dan Skuta) -0.66368
1 2:40 3 10 50 Cam Newton pass incomplete deep left intended for Steve Smith -0.62566
4 2:21 2 7 CAR 35 Jonathan Stewart up the middle for -1 yards (tackle by Justin Smith and Dan Skuta) -0.6225
4 8:15 2 7 CAR 40 Cam Newton pass incomplete short right intended for Brandon LaFell -0.6188
3 12:13 3 12 CAR 45 Cam Newton pass incomplete deep middle intended for Steve Smith -0.6137
1 2:23 1 10 SFO 24 Colin Kaepernick sacked by Dwan Edwards for -4 yards -0.59184
2 12:48 3 3 CAR 27 Cam Newton pass incomplete short left intended for Brandon LaFell (defended by Tarell Brown) -0.56364
4 9:15 2 7 SFO 15 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short left intended for Vance McDonald -0.52896
4 13:35 1 10 SFO 44 Cam Newton pass incomplete deep left intended for Greg Olsen (defended by Dan Skuta) -0.4914
4 5:19 2 10 SFO 1 Frank Gore left guard for no gain (tackle by Greg Hardy) -0.48768
1 1:06 3 9 SFO 25 Colin Kaepernick up the middle for 5 yards (tackle by Luke Kuechly) -0.48276
4 15:00 1 15 SFO 39 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short left intended for Mario Manningham -0.4806
4 7:43 1 10 SFO 49 Cam Newton pass complete short left to Mike Tolbert for -1 yards (tackle by Patrick Willis) -0.46766
4 0:37 2 16 SFO 14 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete intended for Mario Manningham is intercepted by Drayton Florence at SFO-42 and returned for 2 yards -0.44892
3 10:44 3 7 SFO 32 Penalty on Anthony Davis: False Start 5 yards (no play) -0.43818
1 4:16 2 4 CAR 45 Jonathan Stewart right end for no gain (tackle by Patrick Willis and Justin Smith) -0.43594
2 1:17 2 1 SFO 29 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short right intended for Kendall Hunter (defended by Drayton Florence) -0.41904
1 2:45 2 10 50 Cam Newton pass incomplete short left intended for Greg Olsen -0.41752
3 6:41 1 10 CAR 44 Cam Newton pass incomplete short right intended for Steve Smith -0.41688
3 12:59 1 10 CAR 47 Cam Newton pass incomplete short left intended for Ted Ginn Jr. (defended by Ahmad Brooks) -0.41256
4 14:58 2 15 SFO 39 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete deep middle intended for Vance McDonald (defended by Luke Kuechly) -0.40602
2 14:14 3 7 CAR 27 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short left to Vernon Davis for 2 yards (tackle by Melvin White) -0.37558
2 0:36 2 18 SFO 24 Colin Kaepernick left end for 1 yard (tackle by Captain Munnerlyn) -0.3672
1 2:50 1 10 50 Cam Newton pass incomplete short right intended for DeAngelo Williams -0.3542
1 9:07 1 10 SFO 26 LaMichael James left tackle for -1 yards (tackle by Luke Kuechly) -0.34816
4 5:25 1 10 SFO 1 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short right intended for Bruce Miller -0.3368
4 2:45 3 13 SFO 12 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete deep left intended for Kyle Williams -0.3312
1 13:06 1 10 SFO 42 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete deep right intended for Anquan Boldin (defended by Captain Munnerlyn) -0.32292
2 9:16 2 10 SFO 46 Penalty on Cam Newton: Delay of Game 5 yards (no play) -0.31688
3 8:47 2 5 CAR 16 Cam Newton pass incomplete short right intended for Brandon LaFell -0.31428
2 9:15 2 15 CAR 49 Cam Newton pass incomplete short left intended for Ted Ginn Jr. -0.28676
1 10:39 1 10 CAR 22 Cam Newton pass incomplete short left intended for DeAngelo Williams (defended by Dan Skuta) -0.2862
4 0:23 1 10 SFO 40 Cam Newton kneels for -1 yards -0.2856
1 10:34 2 10 CAR 22 DeAngelo Williams up the middle for 1 yard (tackle by Patrick Willis) -0.28112
4 14:23 3 25 SFO 29 Colin Kaepernick sacked by Charles Johnson for -4 yards -0.2772
3 12:07 4 12 CAR 45 Brad Nortman punts 41 yards returned by LaMichael James for 15 yards (tackle by Jason Williams) -0.27552
1 15:00 1 10 SFO 20 Frank Gore up the middle for 1 yard (tackle by Star Lotulelei) -0.27142
2 9:19 1 10 SFO 46 Cam Newton pass incomplete deep left intended for Brandon LaFell (defended by Tarell Brown) -0.26784
2 14:21 2 7 CAR 27 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short left intended for Mario Manningham -0.266
2 11:58 2 24 SFO 18 Frank Gore right guard for 1 yard (tackle by A.J. Klein) -0.25272
1 2:31 4 10 50 Brad Nortman punts 26 yards -0.24672
1 10:51 SFO 35 Phil Dawson kicks off 66 yards returned by Ted Ginn Jr. for 23 yards (tackle by Michael Wilhoite) -0.2173
2 7:19 3 5 CAR 6 Frank Gore right guard for 4 yards (tackle by Charles Johnson) -0.21312
2 13:34 1 10 CAR 20 Cam Newton pass incomplete short left intended for Steve Smith -0.209
4 6:59 2 11 50 Jonathan Stewart right tackle for 3 yards (tackle by Tony Jerod-Eddie) -0.20822
3 10:16 3 12 SFO 27 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short middle to Frank Gore for 10 yards (tackle by Luke Kuechly) -0.1904
4 3:29 2 19 SFO 6 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short left to Mario Manningham for 6 yards (tackle by Captain Munnerlyn) -0.18612
1 15:00 CAR 35 Graham Gano kicks off 73 yards touchback -0.1792
3 15:00 SFO 35 Phil Dawson kicks off 65 yards touchback -0.1736
3 15:00 1 10 CAR 20 DeAngelo Williams left guard for 2 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) -0.1736
2 1:59 CAR 35 Graham Gano kicks off 65 yards touchback -0.16744
2 7:26 2 5 CAR 6 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short right intended for Vernon Davis (defended by Michael Mitchell) -0.1653
4 15:00 1 10 SFO 44 Penalty on Anquan Boldin: False Start 5 yards (no play) -0.15048
4 2:00 2 4 CAR 49 Cam Newton right tackle for 2 yards (tackle by Glenn Dorsey) -0.14696
4 9:59 1 10 SFO 12 Frank Gore left guard for 3 yards (tackle by A.J. Klein) -0.1428
4 13:29 2 10 SFO 44 Jonathan Stewart right tackle for 4 yards (tackle by Glenn Dorsey and Tony Jerod-Eddie) -0.13536
3 1:04 2 7 CAR 48 DeAngelo Williams up the middle for 4 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) -0.13464
2 6:10 1 10 CAR 20 Jonathan Stewart left tackle for no gain (tackle by Dan Skuta and Patrick Willis) -0.1309
4 5:34 4 2 SFO 41 Brad Nortman punts 40 yards -0.1263
3 5:54 1 10 SFO 37 Jonathan Stewart left guard for 3 yards (tackle by Patrick Willis) -0.12572
3 1:47 1 10 CAR 45 DeAngelo Williams up the middle for 3 yards (tackle by Demarcus Dobbs) -0.11284
4 8:51 1 10 CAR 37 Jonathan Stewart right tackle for 3 yards (tackle by Tony Jerod-Eddie) -0.11088
2 13:38 SFO 35 Phil Dawson kicks off 65 yards touchback -0.1064
2 4:04 1 10 CAR 40 Cam Newton right end for 2 yards (tackle by Ahmad Brooks) -0.08064
4 2:27 1 10 CAR 32 Jonathan Stewart right guard for 3 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) -0.07588
1 12:22 1 10 CAR 41 Frank Gore right tackle for 3 yards (tackle by Luke Kuechly) -0.07308
2 6:20 SFO 35 Phil Dawson kicks off 64 yards returned by Ted Ginn Jr. for 19 yards (tackle by Darryl Morris) -0.06664
2 10:31 1 10 CAR 43 DeAngelo Williams left guard for 3 yards (tackle by Ray McDonald) -0.06384
2 5:31 2 10 CAR 20 Cam Newton right guard for 3 yards (tackle by Justin Smith) -0.06322
2 6:21 4 1 CAR 2 Adam Snyder for no gain. Penalty on Colin Kaepernick: Delay of Game 5 yards (no play) -0.06156
2 15:00 1 10 CAR 30 Frank Gore left guard for 3 yards (tackle by Luke Kuechly) -0.04872
4 10:48 3 19 SFO 41 Cam Newton pass complete short left to Steve Smith for 6 yards (tackle by Tarell Brown) -0.0432
1 6:05 2 6 CAR 31 Cam Newton pass complete short left to Brandon LaFell for 5 yards (tackle by Tarell Brown) -0.02208
3 2:31 1 5 CAR 43 Adam Snyder for 4 yards (tackle by Luke Kuechly) -0.021
1 11:50 2 7 CAR 38 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short left to Anquan Boldin for 5 yards (tackle by Melvin White) -0.01572
2 10:41 4 18 SFO 24 Andy Lee punts 52 yards returned by Ted Ginn Jr. for 19 yards (tackle by Raymond Ventrone) -0.01368
1 1:51 2 14 SFO 20 Frank Gore right tackle for 5 yards (tackle by Dwan Edwards) -0.011
2 1:59 SFO 27 Graham Gano kicks extra point good 0
1 6:45 1 10 CAR 27 Mike Tolbert up the middle for 4 yards (tackle by Glenn Dorsey and Ahmad Brooks) 0
2 6:20 4 6 CAR 7 Phil Dawson 25 yard field goal good 0.00456
4 1:10 4 7 CAR 46 Brad Nortman punts 54 yards touchback 0.03368
3 7:24 2 1 CAR 42 Jonathan Stewart right guard for 2 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) 0.0386
3 9:25 1 10 CAR 11 Jonathan Stewart up the middle for 5 yards (tackle by Justin Smith) 0.04074
2 8:10 1 10 CAR 11 Adam Snyder for 5 yards (tackle by Greg Hardy) 0.04176
2 0:30 3 17 SFO 25 Kendall Hunter left guard for 11 yards (tackle by Charles Johnson and Michael Mitchell) 0.0748
2 13:28 2 10 CAR 20 Jonathan Stewart up the middle for 7 yards (tackle by Justin Smith) 0.08784
4 2:12 1 10 CAR 43 Jonathan Stewart left tackle for 6 yards (tackle by Donte Whitner). Jonathan Stewart fumbles (forced by Donte Whitner) recovered by Mike Tolbert at CAR-49 0.08788
2 11:21 3 23 SFO 19 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short left to Kyle Williams for 5 yards (tackle by Thomas Davis) 0.11232
2 2:46 1 10 SFO 48 DeAngelo Williams right guard for 7 yards (tackle by Tony Jerod-Eddie and Donte Whitner) 0.136
2 12:43 4 3 CAR 27 Brad Nortman punts 59 yards returned by LaMichael James for 18 yards (tackle by Chase Blackburn) 0.159
3 0:20 4 3 SFO 48 Brad Nortman punts 35 yards out of bounds 0.1595
1 4:55 1 10 CAR 39 Jonathan Stewart right guard for 6 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) 0.16578
2 8:58 1 10 CAR 24 Adam Snyder for 13 yards (tackle by Thomas Davis) 0.17574
3 4:29 3 15 SFO 42 Cam Newton pass complete short left to Steve Smith for 12 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman and Donte Whitner) 0.19448
1 6:59 4 2 SFO 34 Andy Lee punts 60 yards returned by Ted Ginn Jr. for 21 yards (tackle by C.J. Spillman) 0.2109
1 0:17 1 10 CAR 41 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short middle to Frank Gore for 11 yards (tackle by A.J. Klein and Thomas Davis) 0.27302
3 2:57 1 10 CAR 48 Penalty on Greg Hardy: Neutral Zone Infraction 5 yards (no play) 0.29638
1 8:26 2 11 SFO 25 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Mario Manningham for 10 yards (tackle by Captain Munnerlyn) 0.32768
2 3:29 2 8 CAR 42 Cam Newton pass complete short left to Brandon LaFell for 10 yards (tackle by Carlos Rogers) 0.34454
4 10:10 CAR 35 Graham Gano kicks off 71 yards returned by Anthony Dixon for 18 yards (tackle by Jordan Senn) 0.35
3 11:57 1 10 SFO 29 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short left to Anquan Boldin for 9 yards (tackle by Quintin Mikell) 0.36046
2 1:52 1 10 SFO 20 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Anquan Boldin for 9 yards (tackle by Luke Kuechly) 0.38726
2 2:12 2 3 SFO 41 Cam Newton pass complete short middle to Greg Olsen for 14 yards (tackle by Donte Whitner) 0.38808
2 9:54 2 7 CAR 46 Cam Newton pass complete short right to Ted Ginn Jr. for 8 yards (tackle by Carlos Rogers) 0.42656
3 3:41 1 10 SFO 38 Adam Snyder for 14 yards (tackle by Michael Mitchell) 0.43976
1 13:43 1 10 SFO 31 Frank Gore left guard for 11 yards (tackle by Luke Kuechly) 0.44092
2 13:38 4 5 CAR 25 Phil Dawson 43 yard field goal good 0.4853
2 1:10 3 1 SFO 29 Kendall Hunter right end for 3 yards (tackle by Luke Kuechly) 0.48888
1 5:37 3 1 CAR 36 Mike Tolbert up the middle for 3 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) 0.49634
3 8:06 1 10 CAR 33 Cam Newton pass complete short middle to Domenik Hixon for 9 yards (tackle by Donte Whitner) 0.51188
2 4:45 3 7 CAR 23 Cam Newton pass complete short middle to Brandon LaFell for 17 yards (tackle by Patrick Willis) 0.62208
3 14:18 2 8 CAR 22 Cam Newton pass complete short left to Steve Smith for 9 yards (tackle by Tarell Brown) 0.676
4 2:35 4 13 SFO 12 Andy Lee punts 56 yards fair catch by Ted Ginn Jr. 0.74124
1 14:18 2 9 SFO 21 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short left to Bruce Miller for 10 yards (tackle by Luke Kuechly) 0.74806
1 3:33 3 4 CAR 45 Cam Newton right tackle for 5 yards (tackle by Ray McDonald) 0.75348
4 9:03 4 7 SFO 15 Andy Lee punts 48 yards 0.80704
3 13:36 1 10 CAR 31 Cam Newton pass complete short middle to Brandon LaFell for 16 yards (tackle by Tarell Brown) 0.80984
1 9:18 4 21 CAR 11 Brad Nortman punts 65 yards returned by LaMichael James for 2 yards (tackle by Josh Thomas) 0.86996
3 9:33 4 2 SFO 37 Andy Lee punts 52 yards returned by Brandon LaFell for no gain 0.8704
1 13:01 2 10 SFO 42 Frank Gore up the middle for 17 yards (tackle by Quintin Mikell) 0.99268
4 4:39 3 10 SFO 1 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short left to Mario Manningham for 14 yards (tackle by Michael Mitchell) 1.0104
1 10:51 4 3 CAR 34 Phil Dawson 52 yard field goal good 1.15746
4 2:18 3 8 CAR 34 Cam Newton pass complete short left to Steve Smith for 9 yards 1.275
3 8:40 3 5 CAR 16 Cam Newton pass complete short middle to Mike Tolbert for 17 yards (tackle by Eric Reid) 1.38996
3 0:13 1 10 SFO 13 Colin Kaepernick up the middle for 16 yards (tackle by Thomas Davis). Penalty on Quintin Mikell: Unnecessary Roughness 15 yards 1.39084
4 12:42 3 6 SFO 40 Cam Newton pass complete short right to Steve Smith for 8 yards (tackle by Tramaine Brock) 1.5
4 8:10 3 7 CAR 40 Cam Newton pass complete short left to Ted Ginn Jr. for 11 yards 1.55584
3 6:38 2 10 CAR 44 Cam Newton pass complete deep middle to Steve Smith for 19 yards (tackle by Donte Whitner) 1.6164
2 1:59 1 10 SFO 27 DeAngelo Williams up the middle for 27 yards touchdown 1.70016
4 10:10 4 13 SFO 35 Graham Gano 53 yard field goal good 2.02594
1 0:28 4 4 SFO 30 Andy Lee punts 22 yards muffed catch by Drayton Florence recovered by Eric Reid and returned for no gain 2.51512

What we see here is that Kendall Hunter's fumble was the most impactful play of the entire game. worth 2x as much as Gano's missed field goal.

The reason it comes out like this is because the 49ers were already in terrible EPA position when bad plays happened...the exceptions being the Hunter Fumble and the 3rd down plays preceding each of Dawson's FGs. This, I imagine, would point to shoddy play-calling, right? We guessed wrong, they guessed right? Either that, or the Panthers defense just dominated our offensive line from start to finish.

Note: I am not scape-goating Hunter.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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