First, I'd like to say I'm a big fan of Kap, but he has regressed poorly this season. He has the same problems as he did last year, and some of those problems actually look worse this year.
Some of those problems were:
- Bad clock management. He's had these problems since last year, and I've never recall our offense without him having to waste so many timeouts.
- He has a favorite/go to WR. I think every qb does, but with his problem, he hardly ever looks for other targets. He has a bad problem of staring down his WRs.
- Does not know how to check down the field...he misses so many open guys. A lot of people blame bad throws because of calling by Greg Roman, but it's ultimately the qbs decision on who to throw the ball to.
- Cannot read defenses. It takes him a while to which causes chaos when he tries to change up the play at the last second. He was sacked a lot of times yesterday and I think 3/4 of that was because of the O-lines fault, but the other 1/4 is his. He has to learn how to pick up those blitz.
- Decent accuracy. His accuracy is now somehow worse than last year. He can't even hit simple screens or slants without them being off. I think a lot of people brag about his strong arm, but I feel it doesn't matter when he can't make the simple throws.
- Lacks confidence in himself to make tight throws, and lacks confidence in his WRs. You hardly see Kaep throw into tight windows, maybe it's because he doesn't think he can make those type of throws. The only throws he DOES MAKE are the wide open ones. He's not playing with much confident with that. Lacking confidence in his WRs might also be part of that. Chemistry with qb and wr is huge. On the last play of the superbowl, he discussed in an interview that he wasn't sure how he should have thrown it to Crabs. He feels bad about over throwing up and wish he threw it up to let Crabs try to make a play on it vs the DB.
- He's simply not developed from last year as a passer. He's not a pocket passer, and I don't think a mobile qb is a qb of the future. Kap hasn't rushed much this year which I don't mind because it reduces that injury factor.
Kaepernick has been terrible aside from that GB game. I seriously don't know what happened to him since that game. However, I knew that if teams take Boldin out of the picture, Kap would struggle. He has nice stats, but a sum amount were great catches made by VD and Boldin. His inaccuracy does not show on paper. He has the power, but no accuracy. Our team ranks DEAD LAST in passing. You can blame the lack of receivers, but we've had Boldin and VD. Both capable of being #1 targets. A lot of teams in the NFL don't have a rooster stacked up with 3 pro bowl WRs unless we're talking about Peyton Manning. If you look at our WR core vs others, they're about equal in talent. 1-2 productive receivers then there's a drop off in talents with a few rookies and etc.
Last year, his running game covered up a lot of his flaws in the passing games. He needs more than talent to win. He would target Crabs, and when Crabs was not open, he collapsed and ran. Defenses were not prepared for that, but this year they have a great idea of his game plan. They've trapped him to throw the ball, and he's been playing poorly this season. I just don't think he's the type of qb to take us to the superbowl. We are only getting older. He is the leader of our offense, and when he can't get anything going, no one in our offense can. I think if Kap does not make progress this year, we should draft another qb. It doesn't have to be a replacement, but at least a backup. (We have a bad qb depth).
I'd say one in the 2nd-4th round depending on how he does the rest of the season. We need a pocket passer qb, and sadly by the way our team and offense is built around Alex Smith, we need a passer better than Smith to succeed. A lot of people want to say last year's success after Harbaugh was primarily because of Kaepernick. I'd disagree because our team was at a superbowl caliber before he was our qb. He came into a great situation and made amazing plays, but this year is a different story. Not sure how much the team is willing to spend on Kaepernick, it might be a lot, might not be a lot.
I think a player like Derek Carr in the 2nd-3rd would be great for our team. Not the other brother... I thought his junior year was only decent aside from his amazing numbers. This year it seems like he's really worked on a lot of his flaws and mechanics. His accuracy has improved greatly. He's a pure pocket passer and can be a good qb in the league. I'd also take a look at AJ McCarron and Aaron Murray. AJ doesn't have the best arm and reminds me a little bit of Smith. However, in Alabama, he wasn't asked to do much because of their already great running game. But when he was asked to execute, he did. I think he's very underrated because of the running scheme Alabama focused on. Aaron Murray is the better passer, but AJ has better mechanics.
I just think Kaepernick has to step it up soon, and if he doesn't, I think there should be a change at qb. I'm sounding like how I was with Smith, but we're a superbowl team with a rookie qb. Kap can be a great qb, but his development is very slow. He's been in the league for 3 years and a starter for almost 2 seasons (not technically). His slow development is dragging the entire team down. When he isn't consistent, our entire offense can't get anything going. Kaepernick is our heart and leader.
At the end of the day, I think we need to draft a qb within the 2nd-4th rounds despite if he'll be our franchise qb or not because of the fact that this is a talented qb draft and our depth with McCoy isn't the best. I tried my hardest to sort our my thoughts and frustrations. Rage coming out knowing that we might not even be in the playoffs! Might just need a drink or 2... who really knows...
Edit: I finally found that analysis of Kaepernick by Battleredblog...not sure if I can put it on here, but it pretty much describes a lot of the problems we're seeing. It's here if you want to check it out.