FanPost

What were the most pivotal plays against New Orleans?

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Now that I can obtain play-by-play win probability data from Pro-Football Reference, we can look at which plays actually changed the game the most. There are two ways to look at it:

- Win Probability Added

- Win Probability-adjusted Expected Points Added (i.e. Clutch-adjusted)

Here is the play-by-play sorted by WPA:

Q T D ToGo Fld Detail WPA
4 2:35 1 10 SFO 16 Drew Brees pass incomplete short right intended for Marques Colston. Penalty on Drew Brees: Intentional Grounding 11 yards -0.258
4 2:06 1 10 SFO 20 Colin Kaepernick sacked by Junior Galette for -9 yards 0.252
3 12:23 3 4 NOR 46 Drew Brees pass incomplete is intercepted by Ahmad Brooks at NOR-44 and returned for 22 yards (tackle by Zach Strief). Ahmad Brooks fumbles (forced by Zach Strief) recovered by Ahmad Brooks at NOR-22 -0.207
4 10:38 3 1 SFO 32 Drew Brees pass complete deep right to Marques Colston for 26 yards (tackle by Eric Wright) 0.199
4 2:11 4 18 SFO 24 Garrett Hartley 42 yard field goal good 0.163
2 3:39 SFO 35 Phil Dawson kicks off 68 yards returned by Travaris Cadet for 82 yards (tackle by Tramaine Brock) 0.163
4 5:20 2 10 NOR 41 Drew Brees pass complete deep left to Lance Moore for 16 yards (tackle by Tramaine Brock) 0.153
2 10:36 4 2 NOR 48 Andy Lee punts 37 yards muffed catch by Lance Moore recovered by Raymond Ventrone and returned for no gain -0.143
4 8:34 3 3 SFO 3 Pierre Thomas left guard for no gain (tackle by Justin Smith) -0.129
4 12:47 2 5 NOR 25 Drew Brees pass complete deep right to Robert Meachem for 34 yards (tackle by Eric Reid) 0.123
4 3:18 3 2 SFO 35 Drew Brees sacked by Ahmad Brooks for -10 yards. Drew Brees fumbles (forced by Ahmad Brooks). Penalty on Ahmad Brooks: Personal Foul 15 yards 0.122
4 2:01 2 19 SFO 11 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete 0.120
3 10:58 2 16 NOR 17 Colin Kaepernick pass complete deep right to Vernon Davis for 17 yards touchdown -0.120
1 5:02 3 5 NOR 31 Drew Brees pass complete short left to Robert Meachem for 44 yards (tackle by Carlos Rogers) 0.115
4 3:12 1 10 SFO 30 Drew Brees pass complete short left to Marques Colston for 14 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) 0.110
3 9:14 3 12 NOR 18 Drew Brees pass complete short right to Marques Colston for 14 yards (tackle by Eric Reid) 0.107
3 4:41 4 4 SFO 40 Drew Brees pass incomplete short left intended for Josh Hill (defended by Donte Whitner) -0.107
4 1:18 2 4 NOR 46 Drew Brees pass complete short right to Jimmy Graham for 9 yards (tackle by Donte Whitner) 0.103
4 0:50 2 10 SFO 45 Drew Brees pass complete short right to Marques Colston for 20 yards (tackle by Eric Reid) 0.102
4 6:55 4 9 SFO 21 Andy Lee punts 51 yards fair catch by Darren Sproles -0.097
4 1:56 3 19 SFO 11 Colin Kaepernick left end for 16 yards (tackle by Chris Carr) -0.096
4 7:00 3 9 SFO 21 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete deep right intended for Jonathan Baldwin 0.093
4 2:27 2 21 SFO 27 Drew Brees pass incomplete deep right intended for Kenny Stills -0.093
2 3:39 4 2 NOR 37 Phil Dawson 55 yard field goal good -0.087
2 5:49 2 11 SFO 19 Frank Gore left tackle for 24 yards (tackle by Rafael Bush) -0.086
4 15:00 3 7 NOR 26 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Anquan Boldin for 14 yards (tackle by Keenan Lewis) -0.081
3 4:46 3 4 SFO 40 Drew Brees pass incomplete short left intended for Jimmy Graham -0.078
2 2:43 1 10 SFO 11 Pierre Thomas right guard for 10 yards (tackle by Tarell Brown) 0.077
3 3:17 3 3 SFO 47 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short left to Anquan Boldin for 12 yards (tackle by Keenan Lewis) -0.076
4 9:13 2 2 SFO 2 Drew Brees pass complete short right to Jimmy Graham for -1 yards (tackle by Donte Whitner) -0.076
3 9:37 3 2 NOR 28 Darren Sproles right guard for 3 yards (tackle by Aldon Smith). Penalty on Ben Grubbs: Offensive Holding 10 yards (no play) -0.066
3 11:31 1 10 NOR 11 Kendall Hunter left end for -6 yards (tackle by David Hawthorne). Penalty on SFO: Illegal Formation (Declined) 0.065
2 10:21 2 10 NOR 11 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short left to Anquan Boldin for 11 yards touchdown -0.063
2 3:43 3 2 NOR 37 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short left intended for Vance McDonald (defended by Malcolm Jenkins) 0.062
2 7:50 3 8 SFO 29 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Mario Manningham for 8 yards (tackle by Chris Carr) -0.061
4 5:25 1 10 NOR 41 Drew Brees pass incomplete short middle intended for Jimmy Graham -0.059
1 8:11 3 2 NOR 17 Drew Brees pass incomplete short right intended for Lance Moore (defended by Tramaine Brock) -0.058
3 13:48 3 3 NOR 27 Drew Brees pass complete short left to Jimmy Graham for 13 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) 0.057
3 1:31 3 3 NOR 34 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Anquan Boldin for 5 yards (tackle by Keenan Lewis) -0.052
2 9:41 3 5 NOR 25 Drew Brees pass incomplete short left intended for Marques Colston (defended by Eric Reid) -0.051
1 1:37 3 2 SFO 5 Drew Brees pass complete short right to Jimmy Graham for 2 yards (tackle by Carlos Rogers) 0.047
2 11:14 3 2 NOR 48 LaMichael James left guard for no gain (tackle by Akiem Hicks and Brodrick Bunkley) 0.045
1 9:38 3 4 SFO 37 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short right intended for Mario Manningham (defended by Cameron Jordan) 0.044
3 10:58 NOR 17 Phil Dawson kicks extra point good -0.044
4 2:11 NOR 35 Thomas Morstead kicks off 65 yards touchback -0.043
4 6:48 1 10 NOR 28 Drew Brees pass complete short left to Pierre Thomas for 8 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) 0.042
4 7:07 2 9 SFO 21 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short left intended for Frank Gore 0.042
1 9:33 4 4 SFO 37 Andy Lee punts 54 yards fair catch by Darren Sproles -0.039
4 1:41 1 10 NOR 40 Darren Sproles right guard for 6 yards (tackle by Aldon Smith) 0.039
2 10:21 NOR 11 Phil Dawson kicks extra point good -0.036
2 9:35 4 5 NOR 25 Thomas Morstead punts 59 yards returned by LaMichael James for 11 yards (tackle by Isa Abdul-Quddus) 0.035
3 7:29 3 1 NOR 41 Jed Collins left guard for 2 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) 0.035
4 11:14 2 3 SFO 34 Mark Ingram left guard for 2 yards (tackle by Glenn Dorsey) -0.035
2 2:00 SFO 1 Garrett Hartley kicks extra point good 0.035
1 7:46 3 10 SFO 42 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete deep right intended for Jonathan Baldwin (defended by Jabari Greer) 0.034
3 6:48 1 10 NOR 43 Drew Brees pass complete short right to Kenny Stills for 11 yards (tackle by Eric Wright) 0.034
2 9:22 1 10 SFO 27 Kendall Hunter right end for -3 yards (tackle by Curtis Lofton) 0.034
2 2:00 1 1 SFO 1 Jed Collins left guard for 1 yard touchdown -0.034
2 1:06 2 10 SFO 32 Colin Kaepernick sacked by Cameron Jordan for -2 yards 0.033
4 13:39 2 9 NOR 11 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete 0.033
4 4:37 1 10 SFO 43 Mark Ingram right tackle for 2 yards (tackle by Justin Smith) -0.033
1 6:28 1 10 NOR 11 Mark Ingram right guard for 15 yards (tackle by Eric Reid) 0.032
3 12:07 1 10 NOR 22 Frank Gore left end for 11 yards (tackle by Malcolm Jenkins) -0.032
2 5:15 1 10 SFO 43 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short left intended for Mario Manningham. Penalty on Corey White: Defensive Pass Interference 12 yards (no play) -0.032
1 13:43 4 4 SFO 26 Andy Lee punts 55 yards returned by Darren Sproles for 5 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) -0.031
2 15:00 3 4 SFO 26 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short left to Anquan Boldin for 6 yards (tackle by David Hawthorne) -0.031
1 7:40 4 10 SFO 42 Andy Lee punts 55 yards -0.030
2 13:05 3 3 SFO 39 Kendall Hunter left end for 5 yards (tackle by Corey White) -0.029
4 7:50 1 10 SFO 20 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Bruce Miller for 1 yard (tackle by Ramon Humber) 0.028
2 1:33 2 6 SFO 24 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short middle to Anquan Boldin for 8 yards (tackle by Chris Carr) -0.028
2 0:12 4 10 SFO 32 Andy Lee punts 46 yards returned by Lance Moore for no gain -0.027
2 6:25 1 10 SFO 20 Colin Kaepernick sacked by Akiem Hicks for -1 yards 0.027
2 8:32 2 13 SFO 24 Penalty on Colin Kaepernick: Delay of Game 5 yards (no play) 0.026
2 8:32 2 18 SFO 19 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short middle to Vance McDonald for 10 yards (tackle by Ramon Humber and Curtis Lofton) -0.026
2 3:23 1 10 SFO 21 Drew Brees pass complete short right to Pierre Thomas for 10 yards (tackle by Eric Reid) 0.026
3 15:00 1 10 NOR 20 Mark Ingram right guard for -1 yards (tackle by Justin Smith) -0.026
2 9:47 2 5 NOR 25 Drew Brees pass incomplete short middle intended for Jimmy Graham (defended by Donte Whitner) -0.026
2 7:14 1 10 SFO 37 Frank Gore right tackle for -1 yards (tackle by Junior Galette and David Hawthorne) 0.025
1 0:49 SFO 3 Garrett Hartley kicks extra point good 0.025
3 4:34 1 10 SFO 40 Frank Gore left guard for no gain (tackle by Brodrick Bunkley) 0.025
2 10:26 1 10 NOR 11 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short right intended for Jonathan Baldwin 0.024
3 10:52 1 10 NOR 20 Pierre Thomas right tackle for no gain (tackle by Eric Wright) -0.024
4 13:31 3 9 NOR 11 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short right intended for Vernon Davis (defended by Rafael Bush) 0.024
1 5:05 2 5 NOR 31 Drew Brees pass incomplete short left intended for Jimmy Graham -0.023
1 14:17 3 9 SFO 21 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Vernon Davis for 5 yards (tackle by Chris Carr) 0.022
1 11:41 2 11 NOR 33 Drew Brees pass incomplete short left intended for Mark Ingram -0.021
1 7:50 2 10 SFO 42 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short left intended for Anquan Boldin (defended by Cameron Jordan) 0.021
1 12:16 1 10 NOR 34 Drew Brees pass complete short right to Darren Sproles for -1 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) -0.020
3 2:48 1 10 NOR 41 Frank Gore right tackle for no gain (tackle by Akiem Hicks) 0.020
2 1:09 1 10 SFO 32 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short right intended for Anquan Boldin (defended by Chris Carr) 0.020
1 12:56 2 6 NOR 28 Drew Brees pass complete short left to Jimmy Graham for 6 yards (tackle by Patrick Willis and Navorro Bowman) 0.019
4 6:05 2 2 NOR 36 Pierre Thomas right guard for 5 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) 0.019
4 7:53 NOR 35 Thomas Morstead kicks off 65 yards touchback -0.019
1 8:07 4 2 NOR 17 Thomas Morstead punts 53 yards returned by LaMichael James for 12 yards (tackle by Kevin Reddick) 0.018
1 4:22 1 10 SFO 25 Drew Brees pass complete short right to Darren Sproles for 8 yards (tackle by Eric Reid) 0.018
4 11:59 1 10 SFO 41 Darren Sproles right tackle for 7 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) 0.018
1 7:55 1 10 SFO 42 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short right intended for Anquan Boldin (defended by Keenan Lewis) 0.017
3 13:06 1 10 NOR 40 Drew Brees pass incomplete deep left intended for Jimmy Graham -0.017
2 0:59 3 12 SFO 30 LaMichael James left tackle for 7 yards (tackle by Roman Harper) 0.017
1 15:00 1 10 SFO 20 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete deep left intended for Mario Manningham (defended by Jabari Greer) 0.016
1 14:56 2 10 SFO 20 Frank Gore left end for 1 yard (tackle by Malcolm Jenkins and Ramon Humber) 0.016
2 6:35 2 11 SFO 36 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short left intended for Mario Manningham is intercepted by Corey White at SFO-44 and returned for 43 yards. Corey White fumbles 0.016
3 14:25 2 11 NOR 19 Drew Brees pass complete short left to Darren Sproles for 8 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) 0.016
3 2:10 2 10 NOR 41 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short left to Bruce Miller for 7 yards (tackle by David Hawthorne) -0.016
1 10:46 1 10 SFO 31 Frank Gore right end for no gain (tackle by David Hawthorne) 0.016
3 6:01 1 10 SFO 46 Drew Brees pass complete short left to Lance Moore for 2 yards (tackle by Carlos Rogers) -0.015
3 4:02 2 10 SFO 40 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Vernon Davis for 7 yards (tackle by David Hawthorne and Curtis Lofton) -0.015
2 0:02 1 10 NOR 22 Drew Brees kneels for -1 yards -0.014
3 10:13 2 10 NOR 20 Drew Brees pass complete short right to Nick Toon for 8 yards (tackle by Eric Wright) 0.014
4 0:53 1 10 SFO 45 Drew Brees pass incomplete intended for Marques Colston -0.014
4 13:27 4 9 NOR 11 Phil Dawson 29 yard field goal good -0.014
1 11:36 3 11 NOR 33 Drew Brees pass complete short right to Pierre Thomas for 9 yards (tackle by Patrick Willis) -0.013
4 7:53 4 3 SFO 3 Garrett Hartley 21 yard field goal good -0.013
4 13:27 SFO 35 Phil Dawson kicks off 65 yards touchback 0.013
1 10:58 4 2 NOR 42 Thomas Morstead punts 42 yards. Penalty on Corey White: Interference with Opportunity to Catch 15 yards -0.013
3 10:58 SFO 35 Phil Dawson kicks off 65 yards touchback 0.012
1 0:49 1 3 SFO 3 Drew Brees pass complete short right to Josh Hill for 3 yards touchdown -0.012
2 13:47 2 5 SFO 37 Frank Gore right tackle for 2 yards (tackle by Curtis Lofton) 0.012
3 0:24 2 9 NOR 28 Frank Gore right guard for 2 yards (tackle by Curtis Lofton and Akiem Hicks) 0.012
3 1:06 1 10 NOR 29 Frank Gore right tackle for 1 yard (tackle by Akiem Hicks) 0.012
1 0:12 2 6 SFO 24 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Frank Gore for 2 yards (tackle by Curtis Lofton) 0.011
2 0:59 4 5 SFO 37 Penalty on Andy Lee: Delay of Game 5 yards (no play) 0.011
4 1:48 4 3 SFO 27 Andy Lee punts 48 yards fair catch by Darren Sproles. Penalty on Kassim Osgood: Fair Catch Interference 15 yards 0.011
2 10:21 SFO 35 Phil Dawson kicks off 65 yards touchback 0.010
3 5:24 2 8 SFO 44 Drew Brees pass complete short left to Darren Sproles for 4 yards (tackle by Dan Skuta) -0.010
4 14:15 1 10 NOR 12 Frank Gore right tackle for 1 yard (tackle by David Hawthorne) 0.010
3 15:00 SFO 35 Phil Dawson kicks off no gain touchback 0.010
4 9:50 1 6 SFO 6 Pierre Thomas right guard for 4 yards (tackle by Tony Jerod-Eddie) -0.010
2 2:00 NOR 35 Thomas Morstead kicks off 65 yards touchback -0.009
4 0:19 1 10 SFO 25 Drew Brees pass complete short right to Jimmy Graham for 12 yards (tackle by Patrick Willis) 0.009
1 8:50 2 4 NOR 15 Mark Ingram right guard for 2 yards (tackle by Glenn Dorsey) -0.007
1 0:49 NOR 35 Thomas Morstead kicks off 65 yards touchback -0.007
1 6:58 2 7 NOR 6 Drew Brees pass complete short middle to Josh Hill for 5 yards (tackle by Patrick Willis). Penalty on Justin Smith: Defensive Holding 5 yards (no play) 0.006
1 7:28 1 10 NOR 3 Drew Brees pass complete short right to Jed Collins for 3 yards (tackle by Carlos Rogers) -0.006
1 2:14 2 7 SFO 10 Pierre Thomas right tackle for 5 yards (tackle by Ahmad Brooks) 0.006
2 11:54 2 6 SFO 48 Colin Kaepernick for 4 yards (tackle by David Hawthorne) 0.006
2 10:16 1 10 NOR 20 Drew Brees pass complete short left to Lance Moore for 5 yards (tackle by Tarell Brown) 0.005
1 3:33 2 2 SFO 17 Pierre Thomas right end for 4 yards (tackle by Patrick Willis) 0.005
4 13:23 1 10 NOR 20 Pierre Thomas right tackle for 5 yards (tackle by Justin Smith and Dan Skuta) 0.005
2 5:10 1 10 NOR 45 Frank Gore left tackle for 3 yards (tackle by Akiem Hicks and John Jenkins) 0.005
1 5:46 1 10 NOR 26 Drew Brees pass complete short left to Pierre Thomas for 5 yards (tackle by Dan Skuta and Patrick Willis) 0.004
3 12:59 2 10 NOR 40 Pierre Thomas right guard for 6 yards (tackle by Tony Jerod-Eddie and Justin Smith) 0.004
4 3:56 2 8 SFO 41 Drew Brees pass complete short middle to Marques Colston for 6 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) 0.004
1 10:17 2 10 SFO 31 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Frank Gore for 6 yards (tackle by Ramon Humber) -0.003
1 9:25 1 10 NOR 9 Pierre Thomas right guard for 6 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) 0.003
1 2:51 1 10 SFO 13 Drew Brees pass complete short middle to Pierre Thomas for 3 yards (tackle by Patrick Willis) -0.003
2 14:20 1 10 SFO 32 Kendall Hunter left end for 5 yards (tackle by Akiem Hicks) -0.003
3 8:00 2 6 NOR 36 Mark Ingram right guard for 5 yards (tackle by Donte Whitner) -0.003
4 2:21 3 21 SFO 27 Darren Sproles right tackle for 3 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) 0.003
3 8:32 1 10 NOR 32 Drew Brees pass complete short middle to Mark Ingram for 4 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) -0.003
1 0:44 1 10 SFO 20 Frank Gore right guard for 4 yards (tackle by Ramon Humber) 0.001
1 15:00 NOR 35 Thomas Morstead kicks off 65 yards touchback 0.000
2 4:30 2 7 NOR 42 Colin Kaepernick right end for 5 yards (tackle by Cameron Jordan) 0.000
2 1:58 1 10 SFO 20 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to LaMichael James for 4 yards (tackle by Corey White and Roman Harper) 0.000
1 13:32 1 10 NOR 24 Pierre Thomas right guard for 4 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman and Glenn Dorsey) 0.000
2 12:31 1 10 SFO 44 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Vernon Davis for 4 yards (tackle by Rafael Bush) 0.000
4 0:03 1 10 SFO 13 Garrett Hartley 31 yard field goal good 0.000

As you can see, the most damaging play in the entire game was the intentional grounding call on Drew Brees. However, the second most damaging play in the game was the sack of Kaepernick with 2:06 remaining in the 4th quarter -- that reduced our chances of winning by 25%. Next are the Brooks INT (21%), the 26-yarder to Colston (20%), Hartley's game-tying 4th quarter FG (16%), and Cadet's KO Return (16%).

The Galette sack was the most critical play in the game. Canal Street Chronicles has an entire article breaking this play down. Boldin, who Kap is about to fire the ball to, breaks wide open at the very second that the D-line stunt breaks through, unfortunately.

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Simply put, Kaepernick did not cost us the game. Terrible, terrible blocking assignments and confusion on the Galette sack was the most damaging play. Scrolling through the list, Kaepernick's performance made neither a positive nor negative impact on the game. Hence, his near-50 QBR for the game.

Now, let's look at Clutch EPA. Here’s how I calculated clutch-adjustments:

1. I converted win probabilities into a new measure that looked at how far from 0.5 the game was. so,

=IF(WP>.5,WP/.5,1-WP/.5)

2. I then wrote an IF statement that took the largest of four numbers:

a. converted WP-before, WP-after, WP-change, or the largest converted WP that the play traversed (i.e. if the play flipped the game from one team to the other).

3. So what we end up with is that if a play occurs when the game is 50-50, it has a weight of 1. if it occurs when its 100-0, it has a weight of 0.

4. I then multiply those weights by EPA.

Now, let's look at the play-by-play:

Q T D ToGo Fld Detail Clutch EPA
3 12:23 3 4 NOR 46 Drew Brees pass incomplete is intercepted by Ahmad Brooks at NOR-44 and returned for 22 yards (tackle by Zach Strief). Ahmad Brooks fumbles (forced by Zach Strief) recovered by Ahmad Brooks at NOR-22 (4.69)
2 3:39 SFO 35 Phil Dawson kicks off 68 yards returned by Travaris Cadet for 82 yards (tackle by Tramaine Brock) (3.74)
3 10:58 2 16 NOR 17 Colin Kaepernick pass complete deep right to Vernon Davis for 17 yards touchdown 3.44
2 10:36 4 2 NOR 48 Andy Lee punts 37 yards muffed catch by Lance Moore recovered by Raymond Ventrone and returned for no gain 3.37
1 5:02 3 5 NOR 31 Drew Brees pass complete short left to Robert Meachem for 44 yards (tackle by Carlos Rogers) 3.17
4 10:38 3 1 SFO 32 Drew Brees pass complete deep right to Marques Colston for 26 yards (tackle by Eric Wright) 2.87
2 5:49 2 11 SFO 19 Frank Gore left tackle for 24 yards (tackle by Rafael Bush) 2.26
2 10:21 2 10 NOR 11 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short left to Anquan Boldin for 11 yards touchdown 2.24
3 9:14 3 12 NOR 18 Drew Brees pass complete short right to Marques Colston for 14 yards (tackle by Eric Reid) 2.24
2 3:39 4 2 NOR 37 Phil Dawson 55 yard field goal good 2.06
3 4:41 4 4 SFO 40 Drew Brees pass incomplete short left intended for Josh Hill (defended by Donte Whitner) (1.87)
4 2:35 1 10 SFO 16 Drew Brees pass incomplete short right intended for Marques Colston. Penalty on Drew Brees: Intentional Grounding 11 yards (1.81)
1 8:11 3 2 NOR 17 Drew Brees pass incomplete short right intended for Lance Moore (defended by Tramaine Brock) (1.80)
4 12:47 2 5 NOR 25 Drew Brees pass complete deep right to Robert Meachem for 34 yards (tackle by Eric Reid) 1.67
4 2:06 1 10 SFO 20 Colin Kaepernick sacked by Junior Galette for -9 yards (1.63)
4 5:20 2 10 NOR 41 Drew Brees pass complete deep left to Lance Moore for 16 yards (tackle by Tramaine Brock) 1.60
2 7:50 3 8 SFO 29 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Mario Manningham for 8 yards (tackle by Chris Carr) 1.57
2 2:43 1 10 SFO 11 Pierre Thomas right guard for 10 yards (tackle by Tarell Brown) 1.55
2 3:43 3 2 NOR 37 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short left intended for Vance McDonald (defended by Malcolm Jenkins) (1.53)
3 4:46 3 4 SFO 40 Drew Brees pass incomplete short left intended for Jimmy Graham (1.48)
4 8:34 3 3 SFO 3 Pierre Thomas left guard for no gain (tackle by Justin Smith) (1.48)
3 11:31 1 10 NOR 11 Kendall Hunter left end for -6 yards (tackle by David Hawthorne). Penalty on SFO: Illegal Formation (Declined) (1.44)
2 9:41 3 5 NOR 25 Drew Brees pass incomplete short left intended for Marques Colston (defended by Eric Reid) (1.37)
1 9:38 3 4 SFO 37 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short right intended for Mario Manningham (defended by Cameron Jordan) (1.27)
3 9:37 3 2 NOR 28 Darren Sproles right guard for 3 yards (tackle by Aldon Smith). Penalty on Ben Grubbs: Offensive Holding 10 yards (no play) (1.22)
1 9:33 4 4 SFO 37 Andy Lee punts 54 yards fair catch by Darren Sproles 1.10
4 2:11 4 18 SFO 24 Garrett Hartley 42 yard field goal good 1.09
3 3:17 3 3 SFO 47 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short left to Anquan Boldin for 12 yards (tackle by Keenan Lewis) 1.03
4 6:55 4 9 SFO 21 Andy Lee punts 51 yards fair catch by Darren Sproles 1.01
4 7:00 3 9 SFO 21 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete deep right intended for Jonathan Baldwin (1.01)
4 3:18 3 2 SFO 35 Drew Brees sacked by Ahmad Brooks for -10 yards. Drew Brees fumbles (forced by Ahmad Brooks). Penalty on Ahmad Brooks: Personal Foul 15 yards 0.98
4 9:13 2 2 SFO 2 Drew Brees pass complete short right to Jimmy Graham for -1 yards (tackle by Donte Whitner) (0.97)
1 1:37 3 2 SFO 5 Drew Brees pass complete short right to Jimmy Graham for 2 yards (tackle by Carlos Rogers) 0.95
1 7:46 3 10 SFO 42 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete deep right intended for Jonathan Baldwin (defended by Jabari Greer) (0.94)
2 9:35 4 5 NOR 25 Thomas Morstead punts 59 yards returned by LaMichael James for 11 yards (tackle by Isa Abdul-Quddus) 0.94
3 13:48 3 3 NOR 27 Drew Brees pass complete short left to Jimmy Graham for 13 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) 0.92
4 15:00 3 7 NOR 26 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Anquan Boldin for 14 yards (tackle by Keenan Lewis) 0.91
1 6:28 1 10 NOR 11 Mark Ingram right guard for 15 yards (tackle by Eric Reid) 0.89
1 13:43 4 4 SFO 26 Andy Lee punts 55 yards returned by Darren Sproles for 5 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) 0.87
2 9:22 1 10 SFO 27 Kendall Hunter right end for -3 yards (tackle by Curtis Lofton) (0.86)
1 7:40 4 10 SFO 42 Andy Lee punts 55 yards 0.83
2 11:14 3 2 NOR 48 LaMichael James left guard for no gain (tackle by Akiem Hicks and Brodrick Bunkley) (0.83)
2 5:15 1 10 SFO 43 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short left intended for Mario Manningham. Penalty on Corey White: Defensive Pass Interference 12 yards (no play) 0.79
3 7:29 3 1 NOR 41 Jed Collins left guard for 2 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) 0.76
4 3:12 1 10 SFO 30 Drew Brees pass complete short left to Marques Colston for 14 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) 0.76
3 6:48 1 10 NOR 43 Drew Brees pass complete short right to Kenny Stills for 11 yards (tackle by Eric Wright) 0.71
3 12:07 1 10 NOR 22 Frank Gore left end for 11 yards (tackle by Malcolm Jenkins) 0.70
2 7:14 1 10 SFO 37 Frank Gore right tackle for -1 yards (tackle by Junior Galette and David Hawthorne) (0.66)
2 6:25 1 10 SFO 20 Colin Kaepernick sacked by Akiem Hicks for -1 yards (0.65)
1 14:17 3 9 SFO 21 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Vernon Davis for 5 yards (tackle by Chris Carr) (0.63)
1 7:50 2 10 SFO 42 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short left intended for Anquan Boldin (defended by Cameron Jordan) (0.63)
2 9:47 2 5 NOR 25 Drew Brees pass incomplete short middle intended for Jimmy Graham (defended by Donte Whitner) (0.62)
2 8:32 2 13 SFO 24 Penalty on Colin Kaepernick: Delay of Game 5 yards (no play) (0.61)
2 8:32 2 18 SFO 19 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short middle to Vance McDonald for 10 yards (tackle by Ramon Humber and Curtis Lofton) 0.60
2 15:00 3 4 SFO 26 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short left to Anquan Boldin for 6 yards (tackle by David Hawthorne) 0.59
1 5:05 2 5 NOR 31 Drew Brees pass incomplete short left intended for Jimmy Graham (0.59)
2 1:06 2 10 SFO 32 Colin Kaepernick sacked by Cameron Jordan for -2 yards (0.58)
4 2:27 2 21 SFO 27 Drew Brees pass incomplete deep right intended for Kenny Stills (0.58)
1 8:07 4 2 NOR 17 Thomas Morstead punts 53 yards returned by LaMichael James for 12 yards (tackle by Kevin Reddick) 0.58
2 13:05 3 3 SFO 39 Kendall Hunter left end for 5 yards (tackle by Corey White) 0.57
1 11:41 2 11 NOR 33 Drew Brees pass incomplete short left intended for Mark Ingram (0.57)
3 1:31 3 3 NOR 34 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Anquan Boldin for 5 yards (tackle by Keenan Lewis) 0.57
4 2:01 2 19 SFO 11 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete (0.56)
1 12:16 1 10 NOR 34 Drew Brees pass complete short right to Darren Sproles for -1 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) (0.54)
1 12:56 2 6 NOR 28 Drew Brees pass complete short left to Jimmy Graham for 6 yards (tackle by Patrick Willis and Navorro Bowman) 0.52
2 3:23 1 10 SFO 21 Drew Brees pass complete short right to Pierre Thomas for 10 yards (tackle by Eric Reid) 0.52
2 1:33 2 6 SFO 24 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short middle to Anquan Boldin for 8 yards (tackle by Chris Carr) 0.52
1 7:55 1 10 SFO 42 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short right intended for Anquan Boldin (defended by Keenan Lewis) (0.51)
2 10:26 1 10 NOR 11 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short right intended for Jonathan Baldwin (0.49)
1 10:46 1 10 SFO 31 Frank Gore right end for no gain (tackle by David Hawthorne) (0.48)
4 7:07 2 9 SFO 21 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short left intended for Frank Gore (0.48)
3 10:52 1 10 NOR 20 Pierre Thomas right tackle for no gain (tackle by Eric Wright) (0.48)
1 15:00 1 10 SFO 20 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete deep left intended for Mario Manningham (defended by Jabari Greer) (0.46)
4 1:56 3 19 SFO 11 Colin Kaepernick left end for 16 yards (tackle by Chris Carr) 0.45
2 0:12 4 10 SFO 32 Andy Lee punts 46 yards returned by Lance Moore for no gain 0.44
1 14:56 2 10 SFO 20 Frank Gore left end for 1 yard (tackle by Malcolm Jenkins and Ramon Humber) (0.44)
3 15:00 1 10 NOR 20 Mark Ingram right guard for -1 yards (tackle by Justin Smith) (0.44)
4 5:25 1 10 NOR 41 Drew Brees pass incomplete short middle intended for Jimmy Graham (0.44)
4 0:50 2 10 SFO 45 Drew Brees pass complete short right to Marques Colston for 20 yards (tackle by Eric Reid) 0.42
4 6:48 1 10 NOR 28 Drew Brees pass complete short left to Pierre Thomas for 8 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) 0.41
2 6:35 2 11 SFO 36 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short left intended for Mario Manningham is intercepted by Corey White at SFO-44 and returned for 43 yards. Corey White fumbles (0.40)
1 4:22 1 10 SFO 25 Drew Brees pass complete short right to Darren Sproles for 8 yards (tackle by Eric Reid) 0.39
2 0:02 1 10 NOR 22 Drew Brees kneels for -1 yards (0.38)
3 4:34 1 10 SFO 40 Frank Gore left guard for no gain (tackle by Brodrick Bunkley) (0.38)
4 13:39 2 9 NOR 11 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete (0.38)
1 11:36 3 11 NOR 33 Drew Brees pass complete short right to Pierre Thomas for 9 yards (tackle by Patrick Willis) (0.37)
1 10:58 4 2 NOR 42 Thomas Morstead punts 42 yards. Penalty on Corey White: Interference with Opportunity to Catch 15 yards (0.36)
2 1:09 1 10 SFO 32 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short right intended for Anquan Boldin (defended by Chris Carr) (0.35)
4 11:14 2 3 SFO 34 Mark Ingram left guard for 2 yards (tackle by Glenn Dorsey) (0.32)
3 10:13 2 10 NOR 20 Drew Brees pass complete short right to Nick Toon for 8 yards (tackle by Eric Wright) 0.32
3 2:48 1 10 NOR 41 Frank Gore right tackle for no gain (tackle by Akiem Hicks) (0.30)
4 1:18 2 4 NOR 46 Drew Brees pass complete short right to Jimmy Graham for 9 yards (tackle by Donte Whitner) 0.29
4 11:59 1 10 SFO 41 Darren Sproles right tackle for 7 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) 0.29
4 2:11 NOR 35 Thomas Morstead kicks off 65 yards touchback (0.27)
4 4:37 1 10 SFO 43 Mark Ingram right tackle for 2 yards (tackle by Justin Smith) (0.27)
3 13:06 1 10 NOR 40 Drew Brees pass incomplete deep left intended for Jimmy Graham (0.27)
3 6:01 1 10 SFO 46 Drew Brees pass complete short left to Lance Moore for 2 yards (tackle by Carlos Rogers) (0.26)
4 6:05 2 2 NOR 36 Pierre Thomas right guard for 5 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) 0.26
2 0:59 3 12 SFO 30 LaMichael James left tackle for 7 yards (tackle by Roman Harper) (0.26)
3 14:25 2 11 NOR 19 Drew Brees pass complete short left to Darren Sproles for 8 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) 0.26
4 13:31 3 9 NOR 11 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short right intended for Vernon Davis (defended by Rafael Bush) (0.25)
4 7:50 1 10 SFO 20 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Bruce Miller for 1 yard (tackle by Ramon Humber) (0.25)
3 10:58 SFO 35 Phil Dawson kicks off 65 yards touchback (0.24)
2 10:21 SFO 35 Phil Dawson kicks off 65 yards touchback (0.24)
1 0:49 1 3 SFO 3 Drew Brees pass complete short right to Josh Hill for 3 yards touchdown 0.24
1 15:00 NOR 35 Thomas Morstead kicks off 65 yards touchback (0.24)
2 13:47 2 5 SFO 37 Frank Gore right tackle for 2 yards (tackle by Curtis Lofton) (0.21)
3 0:24 2 9 NOR 28 Frank Gore right guard for 2 yards (tackle by Curtis Lofton and Akiem Hicks) (0.20)
1 0:12 2 6 SFO 24 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Frank Gore for 2 yards (tackle by Curtis Lofton) (0.19)
3 1:06 1 10 NOR 29 Frank Gore right tackle for 1 yard (tackle by Akiem Hicks) (0.17)
1 8:50 2 4 NOR 15 Mark Ingram right guard for 2 yards (tackle by Glenn Dorsey) (0.17)
3 5:24 2 8 SFO 44 Drew Brees pass complete short left to Darren Sproles for 4 yards (tackle by Dan Skuta) (0.17)
4 7:53 NOR 35 Thomas Morstead kicks off 65 yards touchback (0.17)
2 0:59 4 5 SFO 37 Penalty on Andy Lee: Delay of Game 5 yards (no play) (0.17)
3 4:02 2 10 SFO 40 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Vernon Davis for 7 yards (tackle by David Hawthorne and Curtis Lofton) 0.17
1 6:58 2 7 NOR 6 Drew Brees pass complete short middle to Josh Hill for 5 yards (tackle by Patrick Willis). Penalty on Justin Smith: Defensive Holding 5 yards (no play) 0.17
2 2:00 NOR 35 Thomas Morstead kicks off 65 yards touchback (0.16)
4 14:15 1 10 NOR 12 Frank Gore right tackle for 1 yard (tackle by David Hawthorne) (0.16)
3 15:00 SFO 35 Phil Dawson kicks off no gain touchback 0.16
1 7:28 1 10 NOR 3 Drew Brees pass complete short right to Jed Collins for 3 yards (tackle by Carlos Rogers) (0.16)
2 5:10 1 10 NOR 45 Frank Gore left tackle for 3 yards (tackle by Akiem Hicks and John Jenkins) (0.13)
4 13:27 4 9 NOR 11 Phil Dawson 29 yard field goal good 0.13
3 2:10 2 10 NOR 41 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short left to Bruce Miller for 7 yards (tackle by David Hawthorne) 0.13
1 0:49 NOR 35 Thomas Morstead kicks off 65 yards touchback (0.12)
4 1:41 1 10 NOR 40 Darren Sproles right guard for 6 yards (tackle by Aldon Smith) 0.12
4 0:53 1 10 SFO 45 Drew Brees pass incomplete intended for Marques Colston (0.12)
4 13:27 SFO 35 Phil Dawson kicks off 65 yards touchback (0.12)
1 2:14 2 7 SFO 10 Pierre Thomas right tackle for 5 yards (tackle by Ahmad Brooks) 0.11
1 5:46 1 10 NOR 26 Drew Brees pass complete short left to Pierre Thomas for 5 yards (tackle by Dan Skuta and Patrick Willis) 0.11
2 10:16 1 10 NOR 20 Drew Brees pass complete short left to Lance Moore for 5 yards (tackle by Tarell Brown) 0.11
4 9:50 1 6 SFO 6 Pierre Thomas right guard for 4 yards (tackle by Tony Jerod-Eddie) (0.11)
1 3:33 2 2 SFO 17 Pierre Thomas right end for 4 yards (tackle by Patrick Willis) 0.09
2 11:54 2 6 SFO 48 Colin Kaepernick for 4 yards (tackle by David Hawthorne) (0.09)
1 10:17 2 10 SFO 31 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Frank Gore for 6 yards (tackle by Ramon Humber) 0.09
1 9:25 1 10 NOR 9 Pierre Thomas right guard for 6 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) 0.09
4 3:56 2 8 SFO 41 Drew Brees pass complete short middle to Marques Colston for 6 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) 0.08
1 2:51 1 10 SFO 13 Drew Brees pass complete short middle to Pierre Thomas for 3 yards (tackle by Patrick Willis) (0.07)
2 14:20 1 10 SFO 32 Kendall Hunter left end for 5 yards (tackle by Akiem Hicks) 0.06
4 13:23 1 10 NOR 20 Pierre Thomas right tackle for 5 yards (tackle by Justin Smith and Dan Skuta) 0.06
3 12:59 2 10 NOR 40 Pierre Thomas right guard for 6 yards (tackle by Tony Jerod-Eddie and Justin Smith) 0.05
2 4:30 2 7 NOR 42 Colin Kaepernick right end for 5 yards (tackle by Cameron Jordan) (0.04)
3 8:00 2 6 NOR 36 Mark Ingram right guard for 5 yards (tackle by Donte Whitner) (0.04)
4 2:21 3 21 SFO 27 Darren Sproles right tackle for 3 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) 0.04
4 7:53 4 3 SFO 3 Garrett Hartley 21 yard field goal good (0.02)
2 2:00 1 1 SFO 1 Jed Collins left guard for 1 yard touchdown 0.02
4 1:48 4 3 SFO 27 Andy Lee punts 48 yards fair catch by Darren Sproles. Penalty on Kassim Osgood: Fair Catch Interference 15 yards (0.02)
4 0:19 1 10 SFO 25 Drew Brees pass complete short right to Jimmy Graham for 12 yards (tackle by Patrick Willis) 0.01
2 1:58 1 10 SFO 20 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to LaMichael James for 4 yards (tackle by Corey White and Roman Harper) (0.01)
1 0:44 1 10 SFO 20 Frank Gore right guard for 4 yards (tackle by Ramon Humber) (0.00)
2 2:00 SFO 1 Garrett Hartley kicks extra point good -
1 0:49 SFO 3 Garrett Hartley kicks extra point good -
1 13:32 1 10 NOR 24 Pierre Thomas right guard for 4 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman and Glenn Dorsey) -
2 12:31 1 10 SFO 44 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Vernon Davis for 4 yards (tackle by Rafael Bush) -
4 0:03 1 10 SFO 13 Garrett Hartley 31 yard field goal good -
2 10:21 NOR 11 Phil Dawson kicks extra point good -
3 10:58 NOR 17 Phil Dawson kicks extra point good -
3 8:32 1 10 NOR 32 Drew Brees pass complete short middle to Mark Ingram for 4 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) -

As we see here, there aren't a lot of negative plays from Kaepernick -- excluding the critical sack on the blown protection scheme. We see an incomplete pass on 3rd and 2 that led to a FG, and a couple other failed third down conversions. In fact, we see that Clutch EPA per play for Kap looks not all that different from Brees'...somewhere around zero. ESPN gave Brees a 55 and Kap a 46 after applying 'credit adjustments' -- i.e. if a WR made a great play or something like that. That's a black box -- I don't know what adjustments they're applying.

So, Summary: Kap is having average games with poor protection and receivers who aren't getting open. I don't know what you expect. My own $0.02 is that Kaepernick isn't running as much as he should be...I see wide open running lanes and he throws into tight coverage or out of bounds. I suspect this is a risk management issue from Harbaugh and Roman -- the majority of he league's starting quarterbacks have missed games this year. I think they want to ensure he's healthy for Dec/Jan.

I think we're going to end up with 11 or 12 wins...we don't have many tough games left. remember, we won 11.5 games last year. So, chill, please. And no more silly posts about drafting another quarterback.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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