FanPost

What were the most pivotal plays against Washington? Who Shined? Who Didn't?

Rob Carr

Needless to say, the 49ers dominated the Redskins Monday night. In fact, it was so dominant that the 49ers win probability was above 99% for most of the game. On average, the 49ers had an 85% chance of winning throughout the game...both on a per-play basis and on a per-second basis. Despite the compressed competitive parts of the game, we can still analyze the performance of the 49ers and see where the game changed the most,

With play-by-play win probability data from Pro-Football Reference, we can look at which plays actually changed the game the most. There are two ways to look at it:

- Win Probability Added

- Win Probability-adjusted Expected Points Added (i.e. Clutch-adjusted)

Here is the play-by-play sorted by WPA:

Q T D ToGo FldPos Detail WPA
1 0:08 1 10 WAS 49 Robert Griffin III pass incomplete deep left intended for Pierre Garcon is intercepted by Donte Whitner at SFO-35 and returned for 7 yards (tackle by Logan Paulsen) -0.092
3 11:18 3 7 SFO 43 Colin Kaepernick pass complete deep right to Anquan Boldin for 32 yards (tackle by Josh Wilson) -0.091
3 14:06 3 9 SFO 36 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short middle to Vernon Davis for 9 yards (tackle by DeAngelo Hall). Vernon Davis fumbles (forced by DeAngelo Hall) recovered by Brandon Meriweather at SFO-49 (tackle by Alex Boone) 0.09
3 12:18 4 2 SFO 41 Roy Helu right guard for 1 yard (tackle by Patrick Willis and Navorro Bowman) -0.073
1 3:46 3 4 WAS 43 Colin Kaepernick pass complete deep left to Anquan Boldin for 24 yards (tackle by Josh Wilson) -0.068
2 3:29 3 9 WAS 21 Robert Griffin III pass complete deep middle to Santana Moss for 18 yards (tackle by Donte Whitner) 0.06
3 10:09 2 11 WAS 26 Colin Kaepernick pass complete deep right to Vernon Davis for 20 yards -0.059
1 5:32 3 8 SFO 40 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short middle to Mario Manningham for 11 yards (tackle by David Amerson) -0.054
1 1:28 3 11 WAS 26 Robert Griffin III left end for 11 yards (tackle by Ahmad Brooks) 0.047
2 15:00 1 10 SFO 42 Colin Kaepernick pass complete deep middle to Vernon Davis for 40 yards (tackle by Josh Wilson and Nick Barnett) -0.047
2 1:19 3 3 SFO 36 Robert Griffin III pass complete short right to Josh Morgan for 9 yards (tackle by Patrick Willis) 0.045
1 3:02 1 10 WAS 19 Colin Kaepernick pass complete deep right to Anquan Boldin for 19 yards touchdown -0.043
1 8:00 3 8 SFO 36 Colin Kaepernick sacked by Jarvis Jenkins for -3 yards 0.043
2 0:41 2 1 SFO 18 Robert Griffin III up the middle for -3 yards (tackle by Justin Smith). Robert Griffin III fumbles (forced by Justin Smith) recovered by Pierre Garcon at SFO-21 -0.042
3 15:00 WAS 35 Kai Forbath kicks off 62 yards returned by LaMichael James for 32 yards (tackle by E.J. Biggers) -0.041
1 9:59 3 3 WAS 27 Roy Helu left tackle for 2 yards (tackle by Justin Smith and Dan Skuta) -0.04
2 5:09 3 5 SFO 32 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short middle intended for Anquan Boldin (defended by Perry Riley) 0.036
1 14:12 3 6 WAS 25 Robert Griffin III pass incomplete short right intended for Logan Paulsen -0.036
2 2:47 1 10 WAS 39 Robert Griffin III pass complete short right to Josh Morgan for 18 yards (tackle by Eric Reid) 0.035
3 13:03 3 7 SFO 46 Robert Griffin III pass complete short right to Santana Moss for 5 yards (tackle by Carlos Rogers and Patrick Willis) -0.035
1 11:32 3 9 SFO 45 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short middle intended for Vernon Davis (defended by DeAngelo Hall) 0.034
3 6:14 4 4 WAS 34 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short left intended for Frank Gore 0.034
1 12:12 2 5 SFO 49 Colin Kaepernick sacked by Brian Orakpo for -4 yards 0.034
1 9:16 4 1 WAS 29 Saverio Rocca punts 44 yards returned by LaMichael James for 4 yards (tackle by Josh Hull). Penalty on Michael Wilhoite: Offensive Holding 10 yards 0.032
2 0:27 3 4 SFO 21 Robert Griffin III pass complete short left to Pierre Garcon for 3 yards (tackle by Tramaine Brock) -0.031
1 13:22 2 8 SFO 33 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short left to Mario Manningham for 11 yards (tackle by Josh Wilson) -0.031
1 6:32 3 10 WAS 22 Robert Griffin III pass incomplete deep middle intended for Aldrick Robinson -0.031
3 13:10 2 7 SFO 46 Robert Griffin III pass incomplete short left intended for Josh Morgan (defended by Eric Reid) -0.027
2 0:47 1 10 SFO 27 Robert Griffin III pass complete short left to Pierre Garcon for 9 yards (tackle by Tramaine Brock) 0.026
3 5:27 2 3 WAS 41 Alfred Morris left tackle for no gain (tackle by Ahmad Brooks and Tony Jerod-Eddie). Penalty on Niles Paul: Offensive Holding 10 yards (no play) -0.026
2 5:03 4 5 SFO 32 Andy Lee punts 48 yards fair catch by Santana Moss -0.026
2 8:00 3 1 SFO 24 Roy Helu up the middle for 5 yards (tackle by Patrick Willis) 0.025
1 9:00 1 10 SFO 21 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short left to Mario Manningham for 13 yards -0.025
1 3:02 WAS 19 Phil Dawson kicks extra point good -0.024
3 4:15 3 5 WAS 39 Robert Griffin III for -2 yards -0.023
1 7:30 4 11 SFO 33 Andy Lee punts 58 yards returned by Santana Moss for 13 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) -0.023
2 6:51 3 9 SFO 18 Robert Griffin III pass incomplete short left intended for Santana Moss -0.022
1 8:05 2 8 SFO 36 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short left intended for Mario Manningham 0.021
1 7:13 2 10 WAS 22 Alfred Morris right end for no gain (tackle by Ahmad Brooks) -0.021
3 11:25 2 7 SFO 43 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete deep left intended for Vernon Davis 0.021
3 9:18 1 10 WAS 19 Robert Griffin III sacked by Aldon Smith for -8 yards -0.021
1 5:38 2 8 SFO 40 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete deep middle intended for Mario Manningham (defended by Josh Wilson) 0.021
1 0:48 1 10 WAS 37 Roy Helu right tackle for 12 yards (tackle by Eric Reid and Carlos Rogers) 0.02
1 14:07 4 6 WAS 25 Saverio Rocca punts 44 yards fair catch by LaMichael James 0.019
1 2:09 2 10 WAS 27 Robert Griffin III pass complete short right to Pierre Garcon for -1 yards (tackle by Donte Whitner) -0.019
2 2:00 2 4 SFO 37 Alfred Morris left tackle for 1 yard (tackle by Glenn Dorsey and Donte Whitner) -0.019
2 0:04 4 1 SFO 18 Kai Forbath 35 yard field goal good 0.019
2 9:16 2 5 SFO 42 Alfred Morris right end for 9 yards (tackle by Donte Whitner and Patrick Willis) 0.019
2 8:28 2 1 SFO 24 Roy Helu left end for no gain (tackle by Patrick Willis) -0.019
3 4:15 4 7 WAS 37 Saverio Rocca punts 42 yards returned by LaMichael James for 40 yards (tackle by Saverio Rocca) -0.018
3 14:48 2 10 SFO 35 Kendall Hunter right end for 1 yard (tackle by Barry Cofield and Reed Doughty) 0.018
2 10:06 2 2 WAS 41 Alfred Morris right guard for 12 yards (tackle by Eric Reid) 0.017
2 4:14 2 9 WAS 21 Alfred Morris right tackle for no gain (tackle by Navorro Bowman) -0.017
3 14:53 1 10 SFO 35 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short left intended for Mario Manningham (defended by Perry Riley) 0.017
2 13:00 3 5 WAS 13 Colin Kaepernick left end for 2 yards (tackle by Brandon Meriweather) 0.017
3 9:33 WAS 6 Phil Dawson kicks extra point good -0.017
1 3:02 SFO 35 Phil Dawson kicks off 58 yards returned by Niles Paul for 20 yards (tackle by Nick Moody) 0.017
2 11:27 2 6 WAS 23 Robert Griffin III pass complete short left to Pierre Garcon for 10 yards (tackle by Patrick Willis and Aldon Smith) 0.017
2 8:50 1 10 SFO 33 Robert Griffin III pass complete short right to Josh Morgan for 9 yards (tackle by Carlos Rogers) 0.017
2 6:48 4 9 SFO 18 Kai Forbath 36 yard field goal good 0.017
2 6:48 WAS 35 Kai Forbath kicks off 59 yards returned by LaMichael James for 21 yards (tackle by Evan Royster) -0.017
1 7:18 1 10 WAS 22 Robert Griffin III pass incomplete deep right intended for Aldrick Robinson (defended by Ahmad Brooks) -0.016
2 7:34 1 10 SFO 19 Robert Griffin III pass incomplete short middle intended for Pierre Garcon -0.016
1 14:56 1 10 WAS 21 Robert Griffin III pass incomplete short left intended for Pierre Garcon -0.015
2 7:27 2 10 SFO 19 Robert Griffin III pass complete short right to Josh Morgan for 1 yard (tackle by Tony Jerod-Eddie) -0.015
3 10:40 1 10 WAS 25 Frank Gore up the middle for -1 yards (tackle by Ryan Kerrigan) 0.015
1 6:22 4 10 WAS 22 Saverio Rocca punts 51 yards returned by LaMichael James for 11 yards (tackle by Trenton Robinson) 0.013
1 4:27 2 6 WAS 45 Colin Kaepernick for 3 yards. Colin Kaepernick fumbles recovered by Colin Kaepernick at WAS-46 0.013
3 8:39 2 18 WAS 11 Robert Griffin III pass incomplete short left intended for Logan Paulsen -0.012
3 6:20 3 4 WAS 34 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short right intended for LaMichael James 0.012
1 2:46 1 10 WAS 27 Alfred Morris left end for no gain (tackle by Navorro Bowman and Glenn Dorsey) -0.012
2 13:44 2 5 WAS 13 Kendall Hunter up the middle for no gain (tackle by Reed Doughty and Kedric Golston) 0.011
2 4:55 1 10 WAS 20 Alfred Morris right end for 1 yard (tackle by Tony Jerod-Eddie and Glenn Dorsey) -0.011
2 10:46 1 10 WAS 33 Robert Griffin III pass complete short left to Josh Morgan for 8 yards (tackle by Tramaine Brock) 0.01
2 2:22 1 10 SFO 43 Alfred Morris left guard for 6 yards (tackle by Justin Smith and Demarcus Dobbs) 0.009
1 8:38 1 10 SFO 34 Frank Gore right tackle for 2 yards (tackle by Perry Riley and London Fletcher) 0.009
1 11:19 1 10 WAS 20 Alfred Morris right tackle for 2 yards (tackle by Ahmad Brooks) -0.008
1 6:13 1 10 SFO 38 Frank Gore right end for 2 yards (tackle by London Fletcher) 0.008
3 3:35 1 15 WAS 44 Colin Kaepernick pass complete deep right to Vance McDonald for 23 yards (tackle by Josh Wilson) -0.008
1 13:59 1 10 SFO 31 Frank Gore right guard for 2 yards (tackle by Reed Doughty and Perry Riley) 0.008
3 6:04 1 10 WAS 34 Alfred Morris left guard for 7 yards (tackle by Justin Smith and Tony Jerod-Eddie) 0.007
2 6:37 1 10 SFO 27 Frank Gore left end for 2 yards (tackle by Chris Baker) 0.006
2 5:51 2 8 SFO 29 Kendall Hunter left tackle for 3 yards (tackle by Brian Orakpo and London Fletcher) 0.006
1 14:51 2 10 WAS 21 Robert Griffin III left end for 4 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) -0.005
2 12:14 4 3 WAS 11 Phil Dawson 29 yard field goal good -0.005
3 13:54 1 10 SFO 49 Alfred Morris left guard for 3 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman and Justin Smith) -0.005
3 7:58 4 16 WAS 13 Saverio Rocca punts 49 yards returned by LaMichael James for 17 yards (tackle by Josh Hull). Penalty on Trenton Robinson: Player Out of Bounds on Punt 5 yards -0.005
3 7:01 2 3 WAS 33 Frank Gore left guard for -1 yards (tackle by Chris Baker and Brian Orakpo) 0.005
3 9:33 1 6 WAS 6 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short middle to Anquan Boldin for 6 yards touchdown -0.005
3 4:56 2 13 WAS 31 Robert Griffin III pass complete short left to Pierre Garcon for 8 yards (tackle by Patrick Willis) 0.004
3 3:06 1 10 WAS 21 Colin Kaepernick left end for 8 yards (tackle by London Fletcher) -0.004
3 2:33 2 2 WAS 13 Frank Gore right guard for 8 yards (tackle by Brandon Meriweather and Reed Doughty) -0.004
2 14:26 1 10 WAS 18 Frank Gore left tackle for 5 yards (tackle by Barry Cofield and Jarvis Jenkins) -0.004
3 12:06 1 10 SFO 40 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short middle to Frank Gore for 3 yards (tackle by London Fletcher) 0.004
1 12:49 1 10 SFO 44 Frank Gore right guard for 5 yards (tackle by Brandon Meriweather and Josh Wilson) -0.003
1 11:27 4 9 SFO 45 Andy Lee punts 55 yards touchback -0.003
2 12:14 SFO 35 Phil Dawson kicks off 65 yards returned by Niles Paul for 19 yards (tackle by Kassim Osgood) 0.003
3 7:45 1 10 WAS 40 Frank Gore left end for 7 yards (tackle by Perry Riley and Reed Doughty) -0.003
2 9:38 1 10 SFO 47 Alfred Morris left guard for 5 yards (tackle by Dan Skuta and Eric Reid) 0.002
3 9:33 SFO 35 Phil Dawson kicks off 64 yards returned by Niles Paul for 18 yards (tackle by Michael Wilhoite) 0.002
3 1:09 WAS 1 Phil Dawson kicks extra point good -0.002
3 8:29 3 18 WAS 11 Roy Helu right guard for 2 yards (tackle by Tony Jerod-Eddie and Navorro Bowman) -0.002
1 5:01 1 10 WAS 49 Kendall Hunter left end for 4 yards (tackle by Perry Riley and Ryan Kerrigan) 0.001
3 1:50 1 5 WAS 5 Frank Gore left guard for 4 yards (tackle by London Fletcher and Reed Doughty) -0.001
3 0:50 2 10 WAS 21 Alfred Morris right tackle for 2 yards (tackle by Patrick Willis) -0.001
3 0:05 3 8 WAS 23 Robert Griffin III sacked by Ahmad Brooks for -11 yards -0.001
4 13:34 3 11 SFO 44 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short middle to Anquan Boldin for 13 yards (tackle by E.J. Biggers and Perry Riley) -0.001
1 15:00 SFO 35 Phil Dawson kicks off 56 yards returned by Niles Paul for 12 yards (tackle by Kendall Hunter) 0
1 10:43 2 8 WAS 22 Robert Griffin III left end for 5 yards (tackle by Donte Whitner) 0
2 12:04 1 10 WAS 19 Alfred Morris right end for 4 yards (tackle by Glenn Dorsey and Eric Reid) 0
3 3:35 1 10 WAS 39 Penalty on Anquan Boldin: False Start 5 yards (no play) 0
3 1:09 2 1 WAS 1 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Vernon Davis for 1 yard touchdown 0
3 1:09 SFO 35 Phil Dawson kicks off 61 yards returned by Niles Paul for 17 yards (tackle by Nick Moody) 0
3 0:59 1 10 WAS 21 Robert Griffin III pass incomplete deep middle intended for Aldrick Robinson (defended by Carlos Rogers) 0
4 15:00 4 19 WAS 12 Saverio Rocca punts 40 yards muffed catch by LaMichael James recovered by LaMichael James and returned for no gain 0
4 14:48 1 10 SFO 45 Kendall Hunter left end for no gain (tackle by London Fletcher) 0
4 14:17 2 10 SFO 45 Frank Gore right end for -1 yards (tackle by Ryan Kerrigan) 0
4 12:59 1 10 WAS 43 Frank Gore left end for -3 yards (tackle by Barry Cofield) 0
4 12:18 2 13 WAS 46 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Mario Manningham for 10 yards (tackle by Josh Wilson) 0
4 11:33 3 3 WAS 36 Colin Kaepernick left end for 1 yard (tackle by Brandon Meriweather) 0
4 11:10 4 2 WAS 35 Colin Kaepernick up the middle for 5 yards (tackle by Brandon Meriweather). Penalty on Colin Kaepernick: Delay of Game 5 yards 0
4 10:35 1 10 WAS 35 Kendall Hunter right guard for -1 yards (tackle by Josh Wilson and Darryl Tapp) 0
4 9:58 2 11 WAS 36 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete deep middle intended for Vernon Davis 0
4 9:52 3 11 WAS 36 Colin Kaepernick left end for 5 yards (tackle by Josh Wilson) 0
4 9:08 4 6 WAS 31 Phil Dawson 49 yard field goal good 0
4 9:08 SFO 35 Phil Dawson kicks off 61 yards returned by Niles Paul for 16 yards (tackle by C.J. Spillman) 0
4 8:56 1 10 WAS 20 Roy Helu up the middle for 4 yards (tackle by Justin Smith and Ahmad Brooks) 0
4 8:28 2 6 WAS 24 Robert Griffin III pass complete short left to Pierre Garcon for 10 yards (tackle by Tramaine Brock and Navorro Bowman) 0
4 8:06 1 10 WAS 34 Robert Griffin III pass complete short left to Pierre Garcon for 5 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) 0
4 7:40 2 5 WAS 39 Robert Griffin III sacked by Aldon Smith for -6 yards 0
4 7:00 3 11 WAS 33 Robert Griffin III sacked by Ahmad Brooks and Demarcus Dobbs for -12 yards 0
4 6:27 4 23 WAS 21 Saverio Rocca punts 42 yards fair catch by LaMichael James 0
4 6:20 1 10 SFO 37 Anthony Dixon left guard for 9 yards (tackle by Josh Wilson) 0
4 5:39 2 1 SFO 46 Anthony Dixon left guard for 3 yards (tackle by Reed Doughty) 0
4 4:56 1 10 SFO 49 Anthony Dixon right end for 1 yard (tackle by Josh Wilson) 0
4 4:15 2 9 50 Penalty on Adam Snyder: False Start 5 yards (no play) 0
4 4:14 2 14 SFO 45 Kendall Hunter right end for 4 yards (tackle by London Fletcher and Reed Doughty) 0
4 3:31 3 10 SFO 49 Kendall Hunter left end for 1 yard (tackle by Chris Baker and Darryl Tapp) 0
4 2:45 4 9 50 Andy Lee punts 35 yards fair catch by Santana Moss 0
4 2:38 1 10 WAS 15 Robert Griffin III pass complete short left to Pierre Garcon for 4 yards (tackle by Patrick Willis) 0
4 2:12 2 6 WAS 19 Robert Griffin III pass complete deep left to Santana Moss for 24 yards (tackle by Eric Reid). Penalty on Trent Williams: Offensive Holding 10 yards (no play) 0
4 2:04 2 16 WAS 9 Robert Griffin III pass complete short right to Santana Moss for 4 yards (tackle by Tony Jerod-Eddie) 0
4 1:57 3 12 WAS 13 Penalty on Kory Lichtensteiger: False Start 5 yards (no play) 0
4 1:57 3 17 WAS 8 Robert Griffin III pass complete short right to Roy Helu for 7 yards (tackle by C.J. Spillman and Patrick Willis) 0
4 1:50 4 10 WAS 15 Robert Griffin III left end for 7 yards (tackle by Carlos Rogers) 0
4 1:39 1 10 WAS 22 Colin Kaepernick kneels for -1 yards 0
4 1:00 2 11 WAS 23 Colin Kaepernick kneels for -1 yards 0
4 0:36 3 12 WAS 24 Colin Kaepernick kneels for -1 yards 0

The three most pivotal plays based on WPA were the interception of RGIII, the 32-yard pass to Anquan Boldin, and the Vernon Davis Fumble (after a facemask no-call). After that, we see some of Kap's deep ball passes to Boldin and Davis (24, 20, and 40 yards). RGIII had very few meaningful positive plays -- the 18-yarder to Santana Moss is about it...same goes for Morris.

Turning to Kaepernick, Kap had a raw WPA of .04; however, if you exclude Vernon Davis' fumble and look at his yardage before the fumble -- it jumps up to 0.15. That's a decent figure, but its low primarily due to the non-competitive nature of the game...when Kap did make good plays, the game was often already decided. His EPA (expected points added) was a solid 12.8, or 0.40/play when you remove the VD fumble and the kneel-downs; of course, an INT was dropped by the Redskins. His sacks weren't very costly compared to the last two games.

* for fun, I looked at what would have happened if Riley didn't drop the INT and was tackled at the SF 32. that would have increased WAS's chance of winning to 34%. recalculated, Kap would have had a WPA of -0.02 for the game; but you really can't calculate this way, because the big plays he made after that would have mattered more, bringing his WPA back up.

** the INT would have taken off approx. 3.0 expected points added from Kap's total. Bringing his game down to 9.77 EPA, or .305/play...still very good.

ESPN's QBR, which uses WPA and EPA, gave Kap a 90.6 for his performance yesterday (2nd behind Palmer), which means his game was better than 90% of quarterback performances since 2006. He's moved back up to 7th for the season -- in that 3rd tier with Wilson, Ryan, Cutler, and Luck.

I dislike traditional Quarterback rating, but if you want to use that, he got a 134.6.

Now, let's look at Clutch EPA. Here’s how I calculated clutch-adjustments:

1. I converted win probabilities into a new measure that looked at how far from 0.5 the game was. so,

=IF(WP>.5,WP/.5,1-WP/.5)

2. I then wrote an IF statement that took the largest of four numbers:

a. converted WP-before, WP-after, WP-change, or the largest converted WP that the play traversed (i.e. if the play flipped the game from one team to the other).

3. So what we end up with is that if a play occurs when the game is 50-50, it has a weight of 1. if it occurs when its 100-0, it has a weight of 0.

4. I then multiply those weights by EPA.

Let's look at the play-by-play for Clutch EPA:

Q T D ToGo FldPos Detail Clutch EPA - Absolute
1 0:08 1 10 WAS 49 Robert Griffin III pass incomplete deep left intended for Pierre Garcon is intercepted by Donte Whitner at SFO-35 and returned for 7 yards (tackle by Logan Paulsen) 1.90
3 14:06 3 9 SFO 36 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short middle to Vernon Davis for 9 yards (tackle by DeAngelo Hall). Vernon Davis fumbles (forced by DeAngelo Hall) recovered by Brandon Meriweather at SFO-49 (tackle by Alex Boone) 1.69
1 3:46 3 4 WAS 43 Colin Kaepernick pass complete deep left to Anquan Boldin for 24 yards (tackle by Josh Wilson) 1.57
3 11:18 3 7 SFO 43 Colin Kaepernick pass complete deep right to Anquan Boldin for 32 yards (tackle by Josh Wilson) 1.42
1 3:02 1 10 WAS 19 Colin Kaepernick pass complete deep right to Anquan Boldin for 19 yards touchdown 1.38
1 5:32 3 8 SFO 40 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short middle to Mario Manningham for 11 yards (tackle by David Amerson) 1.32
1 8:00 3 8 SFO 36 Colin Kaepernick sacked by Jarvis Jenkins for -3 yards 1.16
3 12:18 4 2 SFO 41 Roy Helu right guard for 1 yard (tackle by Patrick Willis and Navorro Bowman) 1.16
1 9:59 3 3 WAS 27 Roy Helu left tackle for 2 yards (tackle by Justin Smith and Dan Skuta) 1.05
2 3:29 3 9 WAS 21 Robert Griffin III pass complete deep middle to Santana Moss for 18 yards (tackle by Donte Whitner) 1.01
1 14:12 3 6 WAS 25 Robert Griffin III pass incomplete short right intended for Logan Paulsen 0.96
1 1:28 3 11 WAS 26 Robert Griffin III left end for 11 yards (tackle by Ahmad Brooks) 0.90
1 11:32 3 9 SFO 45 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short middle intended for Vernon Davis (defended by DeAngelo Hall) 0.88
1 12:12 2 5 SFO 49 Colin Kaepernick sacked by Brian Orakpo for -4 yards 0.86
1 9:16 4 1 WAS 29 Saverio Rocca punts 44 yards returned by LaMichael James for 4 yards (tackle by Josh Hull). Penalty on Michael Wilhoite: Offensive Holding 10 yards 0.80
2 15:00 1 10 SFO 42 Colin Kaepernick pass complete deep middle to Vernon Davis for 40 yards (tackle by Josh Wilson and Nick Barnett) 0.79
1 13:22 2 8 SFO 33 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short left to Mario Manningham for 11 yards (tackle by Josh Wilson) 0.79
2 1:19 3 3 SFO 36 Robert Griffin III pass complete short right to Josh Morgan for 9 yards (tackle by Patrick Willis) 0.78
3 10:09 2 11 WAS 26 Colin Kaepernick pass complete deep right to Vernon Davis for 20 yards 0.77
1 6:32 3 10 WAS 22 Robert Griffin III pass incomplete deep middle intended for Aldrick Robinson 0.76
2 0:41 2 1 SFO 18 Robert Griffin III up the middle for -3 yards (tackle by Justin Smith). Robert Griffin III fumbles (forced by Justin Smith) recovered by Pierre Garcon at SFO-21 0.74
3 15:00 WAS 35 Kai Forbath kicks off 62 yards returned by LaMichael James for 32 yards (tackle by E.J. Biggers) 0.65
1 7:30 4 11 SFO 33 Andy Lee punts 58 yards returned by Santana Moss for 13 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) 0.64
1 9:00 1 10 SFO 21 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short left to Mario Manningham for 13 yards 0.63
2 2:47 1 10 WAS 39 Robert Griffin III pass complete short right to Josh Morgan for 18 yards (tackle by Eric Reid) 0.59
3 13:03 3 7 SFO 46 Robert Griffin III pass complete short right to Santana Moss for 5 yards (tackle by Carlos Rogers and Patrick Willis) 0.59
2 5:09 3 5 SFO 32 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short middle intended for Anquan Boldin (defended by Perry Riley) 0.59
1 8:05 2 8 SFO 36 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short left intended for Mario Manningham 0.52
1 7:13 2 10 WAS 22 Alfred Morris right end for no gain (tackle by Ahmad Brooks) 0.52
2 0:27 3 4 SFO 21 Robert Griffin III pass complete short left to Pierre Garcon for 3 yards (tackle by Tramaine Brock) 0.50
1 5:38 2 8 SFO 40 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete deep middle intended for Mario Manningham (defended by Josh Wilson) 0.50
1 14:07 4 6 WAS 25 Saverio Rocca punts 44 yards fair catch by LaMichael James 0.48
3 13:10 2 7 SFO 46 Robert Griffin III pass incomplete short left intended for Josh Morgan (defended by Eric Reid) 0.47
2 0:47 1 10 SFO 27 Robert Griffin III pass complete short left to Pierre Garcon for 9 yards (tackle by Tramaine Brock) 0.47
1 7:18 1 10 WAS 22 Robert Griffin III pass incomplete deep right intended for Aldrick Robinson (defended by Ahmad Brooks) 0.42
2 8:00 3 1 SFO 24 Roy Helu up the middle for 5 yards (tackle by Patrick Willis) 0.41
1 14:56 1 10 WAS 21 Robert Griffin III pass incomplete short left intended for Pierre Garcon 0.41
2 5:03 4 5 SFO 32 Andy Lee punts 48 yards fair catch by Santana Moss 0.40
1 0:48 1 10 WAS 37 Roy Helu right tackle for 12 yards (tackle by Eric Reid and Carlos Rogers) 0.38
3 6:14 4 4 WAS 34 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short left intended for Frank Gore 0.36
2 6:51 3 9 SFO 18 Robert Griffin III pass incomplete short left intended for Santana Moss 0.32
1 2:09 2 10 WAS 27 Robert Griffin III pass complete short right to Pierre Garcon for -1 yards (tackle by Donte Whitner) 0.32
3 11:25 2 7 SFO 43 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete deep left intended for Vernon Davis 0.32
2 0:04 4 1 SFO 18 Kai Forbath 35 yard field goal good 0.31
1 3:02 SFO 35 Phil Dawson kicks off 58 yards returned by Niles Paul for 20 yards (tackle by Nick Moody) 0.30
2 9:16 2 5 SFO 42 Alfred Morris right end for 9 yards (tackle by Donte Whitner and Patrick Willis) 0.30
2 2:00 2 4 SFO 37 Alfred Morris left tackle for 1 yard (tackle by Glenn Dorsey and Donte Whitner) 0.30
2 8:28 2 1 SFO 24 Roy Helu left end for no gain (tackle by Patrick Willis) 0.29
1 6:22 4 10 WAS 22 Saverio Rocca punts 51 yards returned by LaMichael James for 11 yards (tackle by Trenton Robinson) 0.29
1 4:27 2 6 WAS 45 Colin Kaepernick for 3 yards. Colin Kaepernick fumbles recovered by Colin Kaepernick at WAS-46 0.29
2 8:50 1 10 SFO 33 Robert Griffin III pass complete short right to Josh Morgan for 9 yards (tackle by Carlos Rogers) 0.28
3 14:48 2 10 SFO 35 Kendall Hunter right end for 1 yard (tackle by Barry Cofield and Reed Doughty) 0.28
2 10:06 2 2 WAS 41 Alfred Morris right guard for 12 yards (tackle by Eric Reid) 0.27
2 6:48 4 9 SFO 18 Kai Forbath 36 yard field goal good 0.27
2 11:27 2 6 WAS 23 Robert Griffin III pass complete short left to Pierre Garcon for 10 yards (tackle by Patrick Willis and Aldon Smith) 0.26
2 6:48 WAS 35 Kai Forbath kicks off 59 yards returned by LaMichael James for 21 yards (tackle by Evan Royster) 0.26
2 13:00 3 5 WAS 13 Colin Kaepernick left end for 2 yards (tackle by Brandon Meriweather) 0.26
1 15:00 SFO 35 Phil Dawson kicks off 56 yards returned by Niles Paul for 12 yards (tackle by Kendall Hunter) 0.26
3 14:53 1 10 SFO 35 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short left intended for Mario Manningham (defended by Perry Riley) 0.26
2 7:27 2 10 SFO 19 Robert Griffin III pass complete short right to Josh Morgan for 1 yard (tackle by Tony Jerod-Eddie) 0.24
2 7:34 1 10 SFO 19 Robert Griffin III pass incomplete short middle intended for Pierre Garcon 0.24
2 4:14 2 9 WAS 21 Alfred Morris right tackle for no gain (tackle by Navorro Bowman) 0.24
3 5:27 2 3 WAS 41 Alfred Morris left tackle for no gain (tackle by Ahmad Brooks and Tony Jerod-Eddie). Penalty on Niles Paul: Offensive Holding 10 yards (no play) 0.23
1 2:46 1 10 WAS 27 Alfred Morris left end for no gain (tackle by Navorro Bowman and Glenn Dorsey) 0.22
1 11:19 1 10 WAS 20 Alfred Morris right tackle for 2 yards (tackle by Ahmad Brooks) 0.21
3 9:18 1 10 WAS 19 Robert Griffin III sacked by Aldon Smith for -8 yards 0.21
3 9:33 1 6 WAS 6 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short middle to Anquan Boldin for 6 yards touchdown 0.21
3 10:40 1 10 WAS 25 Frank Gore up the middle for -1 yards (tackle by Ryan Kerrigan) 0.20
3 4:15 3 5 WAS 39 Robert Griffin III for -2 yards 0.19
1 6:13 1 10 SFO 38 Frank Gore right end for 2 yards (tackle by London Fletcher) 0.19
1 13:59 1 10 SFO 31 Frank Gore right guard for 2 yards (tackle by Reed Doughty and Perry Riley) 0.19
1 8:38 1 10 SFO 34 Frank Gore right tackle for 2 yards (tackle by Perry Riley and London Fletcher) 0.19
2 13:44 2 5 WAS 13 Kendall Hunter up the middle for no gain (tackle by Reed Doughty and Kedric Golston) 0.17
3 4:15 4 7 WAS 37 Saverio Rocca punts 42 yards returned by LaMichael James for 40 yards (tackle by Saverio Rocca) 0.17
2 10:46 1 10 WAS 33 Robert Griffin III pass complete short left to Josh Morgan for 8 yards (tackle by Tramaine Brock) 0.16
2 4:55 1 10 WAS 20 Alfred Morris right end for 1 yard (tackle by Tony Jerod-Eddie and Glenn Dorsey) 0.15
2 2:22 1 10 SFO 43 Alfred Morris left guard for 6 yards (tackle by Justin Smith and Demarcus Dobbs) 0.14
3 6:20 3 4 WAS 34 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete short right intended for LaMichael James 0.12
1 14:51 2 10 WAS 21 Robert Griffin III left end for 4 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) 0.12
2 5:51 2 8 SFO 29 Kendall Hunter left tackle for 3 yards (tackle by Brian Orakpo and London Fletcher) 0.10
3 8:39 2 18 WAS 11 Robert Griffin III pass incomplete short left intended for Logan Paulsen 0.10
2 6:37 1 10 SFO 27 Frank Gore left end for 2 yards (tackle by Chris Baker) 0.09
3 13:54 1 10 SFO 49 Alfred Morris left guard for 3 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman and Justin Smith) 0.09
1 11:27 4 9 SFO 45 Andy Lee punts 55 yards touchback 0.08
1 12:49 1 10 SFO 44 Frank Gore right guard for 5 yards (tackle by Brandon Meriweather and Josh Wilson) 0.08
3 6:04 1 10 WAS 34 Alfred Morris left guard for 7 yards (tackle by Justin Smith and Tony Jerod-Eddie) 0.07
3 3:35 1 15 WAS 44 Colin Kaepernick pass complete deep right to Vance McDonald for 23 yards (tackle by Josh Wilson) 0.07
3 12:06 1 10 SFO 40 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short middle to Frank Gore for 3 yards (tackle by London Fletcher) 0.06
3 7:01 2 3 WAS 33 Frank Gore left guard for -1 yards (tackle by Chris Baker and Brian Orakpo) 0.05
2 12:14 4 3 WAS 11 Phil Dawson 29 yard field goal good 0.05
2 14:26 1 10 WAS 18 Frank Gore left tackle for 5 yards (tackle by Barry Cofield and Jarvis Jenkins) 0.05
3 4:56 2 13 WAS 31 Robert Griffin III pass complete short left to Pierre Garcon for 8 yards (tackle by Patrick Willis) 0.05
2 9:38 1 10 SFO 47 Alfred Morris left guard for 5 yards (tackle by Dan Skuta and Eric Reid) 0.04
2 12:14 SFO 35 Phil Dawson kicks off 65 yards returned by Niles Paul for 19 yards (tackle by Kassim Osgood) 0.04
3 7:58 4 16 WAS 13 Saverio Rocca punts 49 yards returned by LaMichael James for 17 yards (tackle by Josh Hull). Penalty on Trenton Robinson: Player Out of Bounds on Punt 5 yards 0.03
3 7:45 1 10 WAS 40 Frank Gore left end for 7 yards (tackle by Perry Riley and Reed Doughty) 0.02
1 10:43 2 8 WAS 22 Robert Griffin III left end for 5 yards (tackle by Donte Whitner) 0.02
3 2:33 2 2 WAS 13 Frank Gore right guard for 8 yards (tackle by Brandon Meriweather and Reed Doughty) 0.02
3 3:06 1 10 WAS 21 Colin Kaepernick left end for 8 yards (tackle by London Fletcher) 0.02
3 9:33 SFO 35 Phil Dawson kicks off 64 yards returned by Niles Paul for 18 yards (tackle by Michael Wilhoite) 0.02
2 12:04 1 10 WAS 19 Alfred Morris right end for 4 yards (tackle by Glenn Dorsey and Eric Reid) 0.02
3 3:35 1 10 WAS 39 Penalty on Anquan Boldin: False Start 5 yards (no play) 0.01
3 1:09 2 1 WAS 1 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Vernon Davis for 1 yard touchdown 0.01
3 8:29 3 18 WAS 11 Roy Helu right guard for 2 yards (tackle by Tony Jerod-Eddie and Navorro Bowman) 0.01
3 0:05 3 8 WAS 23 Robert Griffin III sacked by Ahmad Brooks for -11 yards 0.01
4 13:34 3 11 SFO 44 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short middle to Anquan Boldin for 13 yards (tackle by E.J. Biggers and Perry Riley) 0.00
3 0:59 1 10 WAS 21 Robert Griffin III pass incomplete deep middle intended for Aldrick Robinson (defended by Carlos Rogers) 0.00
3 0:50 2 10 WAS 21 Alfred Morris right tackle for 2 yards (tackle by Patrick Willis) 0.00
3 1:09 SFO 35 Phil Dawson kicks off 61 yards returned by Niles Paul for 17 yards (tackle by Nick Moody) 0.00
3 1:50 1 5 WAS 5 Frank Gore left guard for 4 yards (tackle by London Fletcher and Reed Doughty) 0.00
4 14:17 2 10 SFO 45 Frank Gore right end for -1 yards (tackle by Ryan Kerrigan) 0.00
4 15:00 4 19 WAS 12 Saverio Rocca punts 40 yards muffed catch by LaMichael James recovered by LaMichael James and returned for no gain 0.00
4 14:48 1 10 SFO 45 Kendall Hunter left end for no gain (tackle by London Fletcher) 0.00
1 3:02 WAS 19 Phil Dawson kicks extra point good -
3 9:33 WAS 6 Phil Dawson kicks extra point good -
3 1:09 WAS 1 Phil Dawson kicks extra point good -
1 5:01 1 10 WAS 49 Kendall Hunter left end for 4 yards (tackle by Perry Riley and Ryan Kerrigan) -
4 8:28 2 6 WAS 24 Robert Griffin III pass complete short left to Pierre Garcon for 10 yards (tackle by Tramaine Brock and Navorro Bowman) -
4 8:06 1 10 WAS 34 Robert Griffin III pass complete short left to Pierre Garcon for 5 yards (tackle by Navorro Bowman) -
4 2:38 1 10 WAS 15 Robert Griffin III pass complete short left to Pierre Garcon for 4 yards (tackle by Patrick Willis) -
4 1:57 3 17 WAS 8 Robert Griffin III pass complete short right to Roy Helu for 7 yards (tackle by C.J. Spillman and Patrick Willis) -
4 2:04 2 16 WAS 9 Robert Griffin III pass complete short right to Santana Moss for 4 yards (tackle by Tony Jerod-Eddie) -
4 2:12 2 6 WAS 19 Robert Griffin III pass complete deep left to Santana Moss for 24 yards (tackle by Eric Reid). Penalty on Trent Williams: Offensive Holding 10 yards (no play) -
4 12:59 1 10 WAS 43 Frank Gore left end for -3 yards (tackle by Barry Cofield) -
4 12:18 2 13 WAS 46 Colin Kaepernick pass complete short right to Mario Manningham for 10 yards (tackle by Josh Wilson) -
4 11:33 3 3 WAS 36 Colin Kaepernick left end for 1 yard (tackle by Brandon Meriweather) -
4 11:10 4 2 WAS 35 Colin Kaepernick up the middle for 5 yards (tackle by Brandon Meriweather). Penalty on Colin Kaepernick: Delay of Game 5 yards -
4 10:35 1 10 WAS 35 Kendall Hunter right guard for -1 yards (tackle by Josh Wilson and Darryl Tapp) -
4 9:58 2 11 WAS 36 Colin Kaepernick pass incomplete deep middle intended for Vernon Davis -
4 9:52 3 11 WAS 36 Colin Kaepernick left end for 5 yards (tackle by Josh Wilson) -
4 9:08 4 6 WAS 31 Phil Dawson 49 yard field goal good -
4 9:08 SFO 35 Phil Dawson kicks off 61 yards returned by Niles Paul for 16 yards (tackle by C.J. Spillman) -
4 8:56 1 10 WAS 20 Roy Helu up the middle for 4 yards (tackle by Justin Smith and Ahmad Brooks) -
4 7:40 2 5 WAS 39 Robert Griffin III sacked by Aldon Smith for -6 yards -
4 6:27 4 23 WAS 21 Saverio Rocca punts 42 yards fair catch by LaMichael James -
4 6:20 1 10 SFO 37 Anthony Dixon left guard for 9 yards (tackle by Josh Wilson) -
4 5:39 2 1 SFO 46 Anthony Dixon left guard for 3 yards (tackle by Reed Doughty) -
4 4:56 1 10 SFO 49 Anthony Dixon right end for 1 yard (tackle by Josh Wilson) -
4 4:15 2 9 50 Penalty on Adam Snyder: False Start 5 yards (no play) -
4 4:14 2 14 SFO 45 Kendall Hunter right end for 4 yards (tackle by London Fletcher and Reed Doughty) -
4 3:31 3 10 SFO 49 Kendall Hunter left end for 1 yard (tackle by Chris Baker and Darryl Tapp) -
4 2:45 4 9 50 Andy Lee punts 35 yards fair catch by Santana Moss -
4 1:50 4 10 WAS 15 Robert Griffin III left end for 7 yards (tackle by Carlos Rogers) -
4 7:00 3 11 WAS 33 Robert Griffin III sacked by Ahmad Brooks and Demarcus Dobbs for -12 yards -
4 1:57 3 12 WAS 13 Penalty on Kory Lichtensteiger: False Start 5 yards (no play) -
4 1:39 1 10 WAS 22 Colin Kaepernick kneels for -1 yards -
4 1:00 2 11 WAS 23 Colin Kaepernick kneels for -1 yards -
4 0:36 3 12 WAS 24 Colin Kaepernick kneels for -1 yards -

The first thing that you'll notice is that the same plays appear to be critical. The second thing that you'll notice is that there was a lot of 'garbage time' EPA -- the game was basically over; the 49ers scored 4.0 EPA on offense when their probability of winning was over 95%.

SUMMARY: Kap looked great, other than one errant throw that should have been picked off...against a terrible defense (but he outperformed other QB performances vs. WAS!). You should note is that the running game was terrible...against what Footballoutsiders.com considers the 27th-ranked rush defense; this follows a lousy rushing performance against the 29th-ranked rush defense (per FO) last week. The run game is not effective right now, that's a fact.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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