After Seattle's first loss at home, the chances of the 49ers winning the NFC West stand at 12.1%.
I came up with such a precise number by using the NFL lines coming out of Vegas for tonight and week 7. Many don't know this, but the point spreads correspond to win probabilities extremely well. there are a couple different ways to look at the probabilities - and they vary slightly based on the data set (i.e. going back to 1994 or to 1983, or whatever), but they're basically the same. You can use PFR's win probability calculator to run numbers if you'd like. I used the older dataset at PFR (goes back to 1983), but if you want to use a formula going back to 1994, use y = -0.0007x2 + 0.036x + 0.4978. x = spread. that's the probability of the favorite covering.
the different probabilities will cause your odds to change by 1%...not much.
Anyways, we have an 86.4% chance of winning tonight and a 59.6% chance of winning next week. Seattle has a 76.5% chance of winning next week. you multiply those together, and you get 12.1%.
But what of seeding? Well, we only have a 3.5% chance of landing the #1 seed, since the above would have to occur and Carolina would have to lose to Atlanta. Our chance of winning the 2-seed is 8.6%. If we win tonight, our chances of winning the division go up to 14%.
And what if Seattle wins and we're a wild card? Well, we have a 59% chance of winning the #5 seed and about a 25% chance of winning the 6-seed. the 6-seed is difficult to calculate because there are so many different permutations. We have a 4.5% chance of missing the playoffs.
If we clinch tonight, we end up with a 76.7% chance of getting the 5-seed, a 14% chance of winning the division, and a 9.3% chance of getting the 6-seed.
Of course, tonight's game will change the spreads in the SF@ARI and CAR@ATL games. Below are the odds tables:
|Favorite||Line||Underdog||Favorite WinP||Underdog WinP||1994+ Fav WinP||1994+ Underdog WinP|
|At San Francisco||-14.5||Atlanta||86.4%||13.6%||87.26%||12.74%|
|At Chicago||Green Bay||50.0%||50.0%||49.78%||50.22%|
|At NY Giants||-3.5||Washington||61.1%||38.9%||61.52%||38.48%|
|At Miami||-6.5||NY Jets||69.3%||30.7%||70.22%||29.78%|
|At New England||-8.5||Buffalo||74.3%||25.7%||75.32%||24.68%|
|At New Orleans||-12.5||Tampa Bay||82.9%||17.1%||83.84%||16.16%|
|San Francisco||-3||At Arizona||59.6%||40.4%||59.95%||40.05%|
|At San Diego||-10||Kansas City||76.5%||23.5%||78.78%||21.22%|
|At Seattle||-10||St. Louis||76.5%||23.5%||78.78%||21.22%|