Released in 2013:
Alex Smith ($9.75m)(via trade for 2nd round draft pick) (replacement: Scott Tolzien)
David Akers ($3.6m) (replacement: draft - Dustin Hopkins)
Parys Haralson (2.87m) (replacement: Cam Johnson, draft)
Anthony Dixon (660K) (replacement: none)
Total = $17m
Alex Smith is obvious. Looks like KC will pick him up for a second rounder.
Akers time is done, I think Niners will look for Dustin Hopkins in the 6th or so.
Parys is going to have to go since his contract is too expensive. Aldon & Ahmad play 90% of snaps anyway. Our young guys should easily be able to fill in here. I do expect SF to draft an OLB in this draft.
I know Boobie is a fan favorite, but I don't see him making the squad another year.
Released via Free Agency 2013:
Dashon Goldson (replacement: Matt Elam)
Randy Moss (replacement: Mario Manningham, AJ Jenkins, Kyle Williams)
Delanie Walker (replacement: Garret Celek)
Larry Grant (replacement: draft)
Isaac Sopoaga (replacement: Ian Williams, draft or FA sign)
Ricky Jean Francois (replacement: draft or FA)
Ted Ginn Jr
Randy Moss I think is 50/50 at this point. He would have been fine it we kept him in the role he was supposed to fill, but injuries affected this. Jenkins just showed up in Atlanta to work with Kaepernick, so I am hopeful he can step up into a #3 receiver next season. The key will be Manningham coming back healthy. Realistically, Niners need a #2 WR alongside Crabtree for the foreseeable future.
Delanie is a nice #2 TE, but Niners won't be able to afford him. Celek is going to have to step it up. I don't see the Niners drafting anyone who can help immediately.
Larry Grant is too good as a backup and should be a starter elsewhere.
Sopoaga & RJF - I would say one of them will most likely stay at a reduced rate. I just can't see us letting them both go.
2013 Open Roster Spots 1st & 2nd string: 2-3 (K, NT). Total Roster spots to fill: 10
I expect Niners to fill the NT spot their first pick, and I believe it will be either: Datone Jones, Jesse Williams, or John Jenkins. As I stated earlier, I believe 6th pick goes to Dustin Hopkins.
Released in 2014:
Donte Whitner (replacement: 2013 draft or trade)
Jonathan Goodwin (replacement: Joe Looney)
On the Bubble for 2013/2014:
Carlos Rogers (replacement: Chris Culliver)
Total cap space saved for 2014: ~$28 million. Total Roster spots to fill: 5
Let's face it, we all like Goldson, & Goodwin, but they are expensive, and we're going to need every penny to sign Kaepernick, Bruce Miller, Iupati, & Aldon. This will also allow Looney another year to sit, although I expect the Niners to utilize him this season to get some experience.
Whitner & Rogers will also be gone after next season. We're going to have to draft or sign someone to a team friendly contract. There's really no way around it.
Michael Crabtree (6 year 50m)
Mike Iupati (6 year/$42m) = top 6-7 range: Top Guard Salaries
Crabtree needs an extension now when he put up pretty good numbers. He's going to light it up the next few years and be even more expensive if Niners wait. ~8-9 million/year would put him 6-7th highest paid WR. I think that's fair. Iupati should also get a nice deal soon.
Colin Kaepernick (7 year $105m)
Anthony Davis (5 year/$35m)
Bruce Miller 5 year/$12m) = top 3-4 range: Top FB Salaries
This should all be obvious. I think Frank has a couple years left in a limited role. I think Justin also has a couple years left.
Franchise Tag 2013: ?
Franchise Tag 2014: Aldon Smith (he'll need 7-8m/year)
If we resign Aldon right now while Justin is playing, his numbers are going to be pretty good. I think Niners need to wait it out a little to see what he does without Justin to see what money he deserves.
DL - replacements for Sopoaga/Cowboy possibly for 2013
Safety - replacements for Goldson this year, and possibly Whitner in 2014.
CB - need 2nd or 3rd CB to replace Rogers in 2014
WR - need more depth until Jenkins proves he can play.
Niners have about $17 million to work with to sign all their draft picks after releases/trades.
Estimate to sign 2013 Draft Picks: $4.5 million
Crabtree/Iupati Extensions: ~ $4 million each
That puts us around $5 million left over, possibly to re-sign Delanie or Soap or RJF.
In 2014, Niners are going to need around $20 million to sign/extend some key players. I have us freeing up around $28 million, plus possibly some extra cap space. That should be good enough, but some of our rookies/second year players are going to have to step up. I estimate an extra $30 m for 2014 needed for existing players. We have about $10 m left after dumping Alex & Rogers. We should be okay, or at least in the ballpark. This is why we could take on Revis/Harvin for a year, but it's not likely we could afford them long term.
2013 Draft Prediction:
1. First round, No. 31 (31 overall) - Matt Elam SS Florida
2. Second round from Alex Smith trade - John Jenkins DT Georgia
3. Second round, No. 31 (61 overall) - Markus Wheaton WR Oregon State
4. Third round, No. 12 (74 overall) - Margus Hunt DE SMU
5. Third round, No 31 (93 overall) - DJ Swearinger FS South Carolina
6. Third/Fourth round condition pick - Will Davis CB Utah State
7. Fourth round, No. 31 (TBA) - Marcus Lattimore RB South Carolina
8. Fifth round, No. 24 (TBA) - Nick Kasa TE Colorado
9. Fifth round, No. 31 (TBA) - Tyrann Mathieu CB LSU
10. Sixth round, No. 12 (TBA) - Dustin Hopkins K Florida State