Looking at picks teams own in the upcoming NFL draft, its clear that there is a lot of disparity. As a result some teams need to trade down and some need to trade up. But how do we know which teams to look at?
Well, one way to do this is to look at a team's total haul according to the NFL Draft Value Chart (DVC). What I did is compare how many draft value points a team would have if no trades ever happened vs reality.
And no surprise, the 49ers have 854 more points than a team that won 13.5 games and went to the Super Bowl should have...its the equivalent of a top-20 pick. we have TWICE as many draft points as we should have.
An even 'cleaner' way to look at this is as a percentage, (actual draft points) / (expected draft points). That ratio should tell you who needs to trade down and who does not. We can then pick out those teams who have clear reasons for having a low number of points, like Seattle. So, here is the list:
|Team||Draft Points Ratio|
|New Orleans Saints||0.78|
|Kansas City Chiefs||0.86|
|New England Patriots||0.95|
|San Diego Chargers||0.99|
|New York Jets||1.01|
|New York Giants||1.02|
|Green Bay Packers||1.04|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||1.04|
|St. Louis Rams||1.47|
|San Francisco 49ers||1.79|
Ideally, this should include 2013 and 2014 picks, but I don't have that info. Based on this list, the Redskins, Seahawks, Saints, Raiders, and Browns should all trade down to recoup missing first and second round picks. In the case of WAS and SEA, they should probably trade away 2nd round picks in order to scoop up 3rd rounders to replenish the roster. Seattle might be best served trading away their 2nd round pick for a 2014 1st rounder.
Cleveland, Carolina, and New Orleans are in good position to liquidate the value they have in the first round in order to accumulate picks. New Orleans is projected to have an explosion in salary obligations in 2014 and 2015, so its best to re-stock.
A good example of a solid trade would be MIN shipping #23 and #25 to Cleveland to draft Dee Milliner.