Not sure if anyone caught some of the comments coming out of the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, but Paraag Marathe was a panel member on it. One comment he made was that the 49ers have the most expensive defense in the league on an average-per-year basis...and that is not sustainable. Full Quote:
"We have the most expensive defense in the league on an average per-year basis, and that is not sustainable over time," Marathe said. "Because of the cap, if every veteran on the team took a 15 percent discount on their market value, you couldn't field that team still under the cap because the difference between wholesale [draft] and retail [free agency] is so wide."
"You have to figure out which players to keep and which players to let move on and churn out. Because you have to continue to replenish the system."
Based on those comments, I see re-signing Goldson as highly unlikely, probably less likely than Rogers or Whittner being cut. We have to re-balance and keep 2014+ in mind, when we will probably have to pay Kaepernick and Aldon Smith a combined $30m+ a season. So, what would an offseason look like that took this approach, assuming compensatory picks in the 4th, 6th, and 7th? It allows us to get younger -- and perhaps better -- in the secondary very quickly. It frees up a ton of money for 2014 -- we can almost pay out signing bonuses up front!
Released/Not Re-Signed: K Akers, DL Sopoaga, DL Jean-Francois, LB Grant, LB Haralson, S Goldson, S Whitner, CB Rogers, WR Ginn
Re-signed: CB Brock, S McBath, TE Walker
Free Agents: Reserve Safety, Reserve Defensive Lineman
1-31 - Datone Jones, DE, UCLA - huge plus-up at the defensive end position
2-34 - Jonathan Cyprien, SS, Florida International – Big, Rangy Safety
2-61 - David Amerson, S/CB, N.C. State - CB/Safety hybrid that will allow us to put him at safety or corner, depending on how the rest of the roster develops
3-74 - Brandon Williams, DT, Missouri Southern State – big bodied nose tackle
3-93 - Logan Ryan, CB, Rutgers – Excellent Technique, sound tackler, physical as can be. Not that fast, but I’m not convinced raw speed translates that well at CB anyway…technique matters a lot more.
4-125 - Xavier Nixon, OT, Florida - Big tackle who can fill in if something happens to Staley or Davis...and Davis is a free agent after 2014 with a voided final year.
4-comp - Matt Scott, QB, Arizona - solid QB prospect with some athleticism and is a good fit for our system
5-150 – Rodney Smith, WR, Florida State – Big kid, vertical threat, jump-ball guy.
5-157 – Kwame Geathers, NT, Georgia – leaving a year too soon, probably for financial reasons. A little raw.
6-180 - PJ Longeran, C, LSU - Center Depth/Project
6-189 - Marlon Brown, WR, Georgia - Big, Physical Receiver that could be a steal
6-comp - Nickell Roby, DB/PR, USC - Punt Returner, reserve corner
7-211 - Orhian Johnson, SS, Ohio State - special teams contributor, reserve safety
7-221 - Nick Clancy, ILB, Boston College - lots of hustle, we'll need ILB depth
7-comp - La'Rod King, WR, Kentucky - Camp fodder (probably)