Figured this was worthy of a post. Pro Football Focus has come out with their new "performance based value" system that looks at a player's cap hit in comparison to his actual value. Their description:
• It’s solely about what a player did on the field in 2012
• Players are grouped by positions so their play essentially earns them a portion of the positional salary pool
• It’s all about cap hits (these values are approximate)
Yesterday, they finished up with the NFC West and the 49ers. It shouldn't come as a surprise, but the 49ers got the most value for their dollar based on performance:
Joe Staley, Offensive Tackle
2012 Cap Hit: $2.5m
2012 Performance Based Value: $13.8m
Value Differential: +$11.3m
Aldon Smith, Linebacker
2012 Cap Hit: $3.3m
2012 Performance Based Value: $12.9m
Value Differential: +$9.7m
NaVorro Bowman, Linebacker
2012 Cap Hit: $2.2m
2012 Performance Based Value: $10.3m
Value Differential: +$8.1m
4. Tarell Brown, CB – Cap: $1.8m, PBV: $9.1m, Value Differential: $7.3m
5. Ahmad Brooks, LB – Cap: $2.9m, PBV: $9.4m, Value Differential: $6.6m
6. Colin Kaepernick, QB – Cap: $1.2m, PBV: $7m, Value Differential: $5.8m
7. Anthony Davis, OT – Cap: $3.2m, PBV: $8.7m, Value Differential: $5.5m
8. Alex Boone, OG – Cap: $900k, PBV: $5.8m, Value Differential: $4.9m
9. Ray McDonald, DE – Cap: $3.6m, PBV: $7.5m, Value Differential: $3.9m
10. Chris Culliver, CB – Cap: $600k, PBV: $4.4m, Value Differential: $3.8m
Those are the most undervalued players for the 49ers. The value they got for these guys is quite astonishing, but is another testament to how good this front office is. It's going to be quite difficult to afford all these players when it comes to extension time, which is why I'm against bringing someone like Revis or Harvin in and giving them a long-term deal. You have the best front office in football and have proven you can build though the draft, so stick to the formula.
I'm going to skip the "Overvalued" part because the majority of them are minor overpays, including Patrick Willis and Vernon Davis. I'm most curious to see which of those players everyone thinks the 49ers will hold onto long term, and which ones will ultimately be let go and replaced by cheaper options (once it comes to extension time). Feel free to discuss below, and answer the poll question.
Keep in mind for the poll, Brooks and Bowman are already signed for the immediate future
Poll
How many of the 10 above players will the 49ers extend when the time comes and keep for the long-term?
Less than Five (6 votes)
Five (7 votes)
Six (6 votes)
Seven (5 votes)
Eight (3 votes)
All Ten (Brooks/Bowman already signed) (5 votes)
32 total votes


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