FanPost

Resource: Free Agent Expected Points Added (EPA) Stats

Going into the Free Agency Period, I felt it was good to look at the performance of top free agents over the past three years, measured in 'expected points added', or EPA. EPA tracks a player's individual contribution to the increased probability of a team scoring. For defensive players, EPA+ is used, which is a bit more complicated...all stats are taken from AdvancedNFLstats.com. I also included Carlos Rogers for comparison to other defensive backs -- for players with less than three years of significant playing time -- or a position change -- less than three years is used. Data is available below.

My 'value' guys:

- Carlos Rogers - yeah, Carlos Rogers. Compared to other free agent corners, he's performed exceptionally well. Brent Grimes is an equal bargain, but he may end up getting $10m - $12m+ a year and coming off a torn ACL, while Rogers is only $7.8m over the remainder of his contract...and his last year in SF is at age 34, that last year most guys play at an elite level at CB. So unless we plan on going with a rookie, Rogers shouldn't go anywhere.

- Danny Woodhead - all he does is convert first downs. Probably won't be that expensive

- Brandon Gibson - solid producer

- Adrian Wilson - cut due to age, but still produces. If we lose Goldson, he could be a great option.

- Cullen Jenkins - significant production from the inside

- James Harrison or John Abraham - I don't know what they're going to get on the open market, but if they're willing to accept less for a part-time role as a pass-rusher in San Francisco, it could be a good deal.

Position Name EPA/EPA+ per game (3 years)
Cornerbacks Brent Grimes 2.44
Cornerbacks Carlos Rogers 2.34
Cornerbacks Chris Houston 2.18
Cornerbacks Cary Williams 1.77
Cornerbacks Sean Smith 1.62
Cornerbacks Quentin Jammer 1.59
Cornerbacks Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie 1.43
Cornerbacks Chris Gamble 1.37
Cornerbacks Keenan Lewis 1.24
Cornerbacks Mike Jenkins 0.72
Defensive Ends/OLBs James Harrison 3.75
Defensive Ends/OLBs John Abraham 3.01
Defensive Ends/OLBs Osi Umenyiora 2.98
Defensive Ends/OLBs Paul Kruger 2.39
Defensive Ends/OLBs Connor Barwin 2.36
Defensive Ends/OLBs Isreal Idonije 2.31
Defensive Ends/OLBs Dwight Freeney 2.30
Defensive Ends/OLBs Michael Bennett 2.26
Defensive Ends/OLBs Cliff Avril 2.26
Defensive Ends/OLBs Matt Shaughnessy 2.10
Defensive Tackles Jason Jones 1.99
Defensive Tackles Richard Seymour 1.96
Defensive Tackles Cullen Jenkins 1.83
Defensive Tackles Glenn Dorsey 1.74
Defensive Tackles Corey Williams 1.63
Defensive Tackles Chris Canty 1.50
Defensive Tackles Isaac Sopoaga 1.43
Defensive Tackles Desmond Bryant 1.39
Defensive Tackles Casey Hampton 0.96
Defensive Tackles Ricky Jean-Francois 0.89
Running Backs Danny Woodhead 1.28
Running Backs Shonn Greene 0.35
Running Backs Reggie Bush 0.14
Running Backs Felix Jones 0.13
Running Backs Michael Turner (0.48)
Running Backs Peyton Hillis (0.63)
Running Backs Ahmad Bradshaw (0.75)
Running Backs Steven Jackson (0.77)
Running Backs Rashard Mendenhall (1.23)
Running Backs Cedric Benson (2.09)
Safeties Ed Reed 2.56
Safeties Dashon Goldson 2.22
Safeties Adrian Wilson 2.03
Safeties Glover Quin 1.80
Safeties Charles Woodson 1.79
Safeties Kenny Phillips 1.76
Safeties Louis Delmas 1.55
Safeties Chris Clemons 1.31
Tight Ends Fred Davis 1.51
Tight Ends Jared Cook 1.24
Tight Ends Anthony Fasano 1.03
Tight Ends Brandon Myers 0.79
Tight Ends Dustin Keller 0.67
Tight Ends Dallas Clark 0.58
Tight Ends Delanie Walker 0.36
Tight Ends Martellus Bennett 0.01
Tight Ends James Casey (0.20)
Wide Receivers Greg Jennings 4.68
Wide Receivers Wes Welker 4.28
Wide Receivers Mike Wallace 2.53
Wide Receivers Randy Moss 1.72
Wide Receivers Brandon Gibson 1.50
Wide Receivers Donnie Avery 0.97
Wide Receivers Danny Amendola 0.93
Wide Receivers Kevin Ogletree (0.07)
Wide Receivers Julian Edelman (0.23)

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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