We will be eligible to renegotiate a new contract with Colin after this season. If we can't come to an agreement, he is under contract in 2014 and then we could franchise tag him in 2015, and maybe even 2016.
The good news is Colin isn't going anywhere. Ideally, however, at the end of this season we can lock Colin up for 7-8 years, maybe even 10. The key will be how much Colin wants and what kind of discount we can get by offering guaranteed money and up front signing bonus that he could receive in 2014 versus having to wait.
If Colin has the year we are expecting, then he will be a top 5 quarterback. Tom Brady took a discount with NE this year, but he has Gisele money. Unless Colin marries up quick, we won't get the same deal. Better indicators of Colin's worth are two quarterbacks in particular:
* Aaron Rodgers, best QB in the league, but took a slight discount signing a 7 year deal
* Matt Ryan, number 5 in DVAR last year, currently negotiating
We can expect Colin to get a deal similar to Matt's, great QB that hasn't won it all yet, or Aaron's, SB winner but giving my team a small discount for a long term deal. I'm hoping Colin is a SB winner at this time next year.
So, assume a contract in the 17-19M range, on average, with the actual bonuses and yearly numbers varying to meet our cap needs. I put the base at 17 million because I can't see him or Matt making less than Romo.
Salaries are driven by demand, not what others are making, but there is always a demand for top flight QBs, so it really is about keeping up with the Joneses.
8 years * 17M/yr avg = 136M. This would be the 2nd largest contract ever, behind Calvin Johnson's 8yr/150M deal (as good as he is, its too much for a WR. Detroit will suffer for this).
FYI, I believe the most any team has paid their QB and won the SB is when Peyton did it in 2006. He was making approximately 14% of the salary cap back then, or $17M/yr in 2013 cap dollars. These other guys all got their big deals after winning the SB and have not won since.
So, what do you think, nation? Do you agree? We can revisit after Matty Ice signs his deal. Also, this assumes Colin has a great year. He could regress, but I don't want to think about that right now.
Note: DVAR is a metric put together by football outsiders. Salaries are from sporttrac:
|DVAR Rank||QB (Yr Signed)||Avg|
|0||M. Flynn (2013)||5.8|