Trent Baalke has done it again. As David Fucillo wrote in his recent article, the 49ers are again set to enter the draft with a large number of picks. However, as any football fan will tell you, it's the quality of picks and not the quantity that matter. With 4 of our expected 13 picks being in the 7th round, some of you might be wondering the relative value of our draft haul. With so many 49er fans being absolutely giddy at the thought of another stellar draft I thought I'd give you a numerical, but not overly complicated, breakdown of what to expect.
In a best case scenario, using the Jimmy Johnson Draft Value Chart, we have slightly more value from our picks in 2014 (1996) as we did entering the draft last year (1941). The 1996 value, though an estimate, is devised by presuming that the 49ers win the Superbowl (We're the near consensus favorite), the Kansas City Chiefs improve to 8-8, and for all other teams we have trades with (The Titans, Panthers, Saints & Colts) come in at the bottom of the league.
In a worst case scenario, the Kansas City Chiefs go 7-9, causing our #48 overall pick to slide to #80, losing us 230 points. The Tennessee Titans would also beat us in the Superbowl causing the #70 pick they'd have given us last year to fall to a #94 pick, losing 116 points. The Panthers, Saints and Colts would also do extremely well in the post-season the collective value from our traded 7th round picks would fall from 34.4 to 6.9 points. In that absolute worst case scenario, the 49ers would enter the 2014 draft with with 1556 points of value.
To put these two numbers in perspective, a team that wins the Superbowl with only their original 7 draft picks has 1064 points. Teams that draft 13th and have all of their picks have 1948 points. Teams that draft 19th have 1563.4 points.
What this means: In all likelihood, we are going to have a 2014 draft class that is slightly below the quality of the 2013, at least numerically. It is somewhat arbitrary and obviously depends on the quality of the draft class itself. However, this still means we are going to draft well ahead of where we should given the caliber of our team.
Additional fun fact: Baalke entered the 2013 draft with 1941 points in value, finished it with 2038.2 points, while still getting additional picks in 2014.