The San Francisco 49ers head north to CenturyLink Field to face the Seattle Seahawks Sunday afternoon, and currently sit as 3 1/2 point underdogs. The 49ers were favorites in their first two playoff games against the Green Bay Packers and the Carolina Panthers.
The 49ers were never going to be favored heading up to Seattle, and this spread is not much different than the 49ers first trip up there in September. The 49ers went into that game as a three-point underdog. This time around, the line is set at 3 1/2 and really hasn't moved all week. Some sites have it down to three points, but for the most part, the oddsmakers nailed this line pretty well.
One oddsmaker had some interesting info on how the money has been coming in for his site:
"We're seeing way more action on the dog than we are on the favorite," Stewart tells Covers. "After going to 3.5, we saw a surge of 49ers money but this isn't a game where we wanted to move the number and go back to -3, because as everyone knows, three is such a live number and we don't want to get middled or sided."
"This is a game where we're seeing public money on the dog and sharp money on the favorite, and we kind of anticipated this scenario," says Stewart. "Our bettors have been all over the 49ers in the playoffs. We've seen sharp money support the Seahawks at home all season and unlike last week, they've gotten the money more times than not. So this game and the line movement has been somewhat predictable."
For last week's 49ers-Panthers game, the situation was reversed. The public money was on the favored 49ers, while the sharps were getting on the Panthers. None of this means anything for predictive purposes, but it makes for some interesting analysis from the gambling perspective. The NFL wants to pretend gambling is bad and should have no part in the NFL, but the league knows the benefits they get from gambling.
I think the 49ers can win this game by more than one score, but my level of confidence in that actually happening is not particularly high. The 49ers are playing better football right now, but to paraphrase Jim Harbaugh, if you're too busy thinking about yesterday, you're not planning for the future, and you're bound to get tripped up. The 49ers have played great football the last two weeks, and really much of the last two months, but if they don't play good football on Sunday, none of that matters.
Niners have won three straight playoff road games
Seahawks won six straight playoff home games
Seahawks have played five straight UNDERs when favored
Seahawks are 21-3 SU past 24 games as favorites
UNDER is 6-1 past seven Seahawks games vs. NFC West foes
49ers won five straight vs. NFC West foes (4-1 ATS)
Seattle is 8-2 ATS past 10 at home to San Francisco
49ers are 7-3-1 ATS past 11 times as an underdog
Computer Prediction: 30-27 Seattle
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